2024 年 10 月 27 日 行业研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 马川琪 S0350523050001 macq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 廖小慧 S0350122080035 liaoxh@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 爱马仕中国区增长放缓，业绩疲态已显 ——海外消费行业周更新 恒生消费 (HSCGSI.HI)最近一年走势 一．本周个股表现 板块行情：标普 500 可选消费+0.92%，恒生消费-0.21%。 标普 500 可选消费中，涨幅前三的股票分别为特斯拉（TSLA.O） +21.97%、TAPESTRY（TPR.N）+11.83%和通用汽车（GM.N） +5.88%；跌幅前三的股票分别为通用配件（GPC.N）-20.21%、莫 霍克工业（MHK.N）-18.73%和普尔特房屋（PHM.N）-11.12%。 恒 生 消 费 中 ， 涨 幅 前 三 的 股 票 分 别 为 维 他 奶 国 际 （0345.HK)+19.38%、泡泡玛特（9992.HK）+10.63%和敏华控股 （1999.HK）+9.72%；跌幅前三的股票分别为茶百道（2555.HK） -12.80% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for leading companies in the logistics sector, particularly in the express delivery segment [5]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant growth in business volume, with a year-on-year increase of 18.7% in September 2024, outpacing the growth of physical online retail sales at 6.41% [7][9]. - The trend of small parcel delivery continues to drive rapid growth in the express delivery sector, despite a decline in average revenue per parcel, which was 7.94 yuan in September 2024, down 7.08% year-on-year [14]. - Price competition is shifting towards non-grain-producing areas, with business volume growth in these regions surpassing that of grain-producing areas [18]. Industry Volume and Price - In September 2024, the express delivery business volume growth rates for first, second, and third-tier regions were 17.39%, 24.59%, and 28.29% respectively, indicating stronger growth in non-grain-producing areas [18]. - The average revenue per parcel has been declining due to the small parcel trend, with a slight recovery in prices observed in the peak season [14][9]. Company Performance - In September 2024, the business volume growth rates for major companies were as follows: YTO Express at +28.03%, Yunda at +21.99%, Shentong at +21.93%, and SF Express at +12.64%, all exceeding the industry average growth rate of 18.70% [23][24]. - The average revenue per parcel for these companies in September 2024 was reported as follows: YTO Express at 2.18 yuan, Yunda at 2.01 yuan, Shentong at 2.02 yuan, and SF Express at 16.00 yuan, with year-on-year declines noted for most [7][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the express delivery sector, highlighting the potential for growth and stability in their performance [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5][8] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.627 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.04 billion yuan, up 16.41% year-on-year [2] - The WPS AI 2.0 has introduced new AI tools, enhancing user engagement and subscription growth, particularly in the personal office service sector, which saw a revenue increase of 17.24% year-on-year [2][5] - The company is focusing on the public cloud market and has seen a 3.6 percentage point increase in the revenue share from institutional subscription services, which now accounts for 20% of total revenue [2][5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.214 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.53%, and a net profit of 318 million yuan, up 8.33% year-on-year [2] - The company's R&D expense ratio increased to 37.41% in Q3 2024, indicating a commitment to long-term growth through enhanced research and development [3] - The projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 5.242 billion yuan, 6.439 billion yuan, and 8.035 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.534 billion yuan, 1.942 billion yuan, and 2.556 billion yuan [5][6][8] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is positioned as a leading domestic office software provider, with the ongoing commercialization of WPS AI and deepening development in the "Xinchuang" sector expected to drive future growth [5][6] - The monthly active devices for the company's main products reached 618 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.92% [2][5] - The company has strategically aligned its offerings with policy changes and customer needs, particularly in the government and enterprise sectors, which has led to increased orders and growth in institutional licensing [2][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6][9] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.831 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.50%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 82 million yuan, a significant increase of 752.58% year-on-year [2][3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 710 million yuan, up 63.35% year-on-year and 0.93% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 32 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 231.25% [3] - The company has a strong order backlog totaling approximately 3.168 billion yuan as of September 30, 2024, with significant contributions from the semiconductor and display sectors [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the gross margin was 43.97%, a decrease of 4.60 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 3.21 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit margin was 0.09%, up 10.47 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company has increased its R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching 173 million yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year growth of 12.22% [3] - The company’s core products in advanced process defect detection equipment have completed delivery, establishing a leading position in the domestic semiconductor testing equipment market [3] Market Data - As of October 25, 2024, the current stock price is 61.99 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 44.30 to 92.50 yuan. The total market capitalization is approximately 16.952 billion yuan [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue reached 9,682 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.75%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 230 million yuan, up 53.82% year-on-year [3] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 22,208 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.07%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 76 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 78.44% [3] - The company's Q3 net profit growth turned positive, indicating improved efficiency and quality, with sales/management/R&D expense ratios decreasing year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company has achieved a full-stack layout in the HarmonyOS ecosystem, benefiting from its prosperity, with subsidiaries launching new intelligent products and commercial versions in multiple industries [4] - The company's subsidiaries, Softcom Computing and Zhitong International, have seen significant growth in server and PC businesses, with Mechanical Revolution PC shipments increasing by 86% year-on-year in Q2 2024 [7] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 30,355/34,242/38,541 million yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 571/828/1,113 million yuan, and EPS of 0.60/0.87/1.17 yuan per share [7] - The company's ROE is expected to be 5%/7%/9% for 2024-2026, with P/E ratios of 106/73/55X [8] - The company's gross margin is projected to be 16%/16%/17% for 2024-2026, with sales net margins of 2%/2%/3% [10] Business Highlights - The company has launched AI servers based on Ascend, including the A800I, A800T A2, and A900P A2 series, and has seen continuous growth in ODM business for PCs [7] - The company's subsidiaries have released SwanLinkOS 5, an open-source HarmonyOS AI PC, and have completed over 50 commercial device adaptations in various industries [4] - The company has over 15,000 HarmonyOS native applications and services, with significant improvements in performance, battery life, and camera clarity [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue increased by 10.45% YoY to RMB 2.425 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 25.31% YoY to RMB 439 million [2] - The electronic materials sector is expected to continue expanding, driven by the recovery of the industry, new product launches, and the commissioning of the Tongcheng Electronics production facility [3] - The company's semiconductor business is growing strongly, with display panel photoresist continuously increasing its market share [3] - ArF photoresist has started continuous mass production and generated revenue, with new materials such as advanced packaging photoresist and chemically amplified I-line photoresist expected to grow rapidly [5] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 single-quarter revenue was RMB 849 million, up 2.72% YoY and 6.89% QoQ [2] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 125 million, down 1.13% YoY and 25.65% QoQ [2] - Gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 25.31%, up 2.32 pct YoY but down 0.89 pct QoQ [2] - The company's electronic chemicals sector achieved revenue of RMB 543 million in the first three quarters of 2024, up 35.41% YoY [3] Product and Market Performance - The company's specialty rubber additives saw a 4.75% YoY increase in sales volume to 40,300 tons in Q3 2024 [2] - Electronic materials sales reached 4,063 tons in Q3 2024, up 19.51% YoY but down 5.31% QoQ [2] - Phenol procurement prices increased by 10.54% QoQ in Q3 2024, impacting gross margins [2] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 3.432 billion, RMB 4.038 billion, and RMB 4.705 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 554 million, RMB 617 million, and RMB 754 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - The PE ratios for 2024-2026 are estimated at 36x, 33x, and 27x, respectively [5] Industry and Sector Analysis - The rubber additives sector remains buoyant, with continued demand and market stability [2] - The electronic materials sector is poised for high growth, supported by new product developments and market expansion [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7][19] Core Views - The company experienced pressure on its performance in Q3 2024, with a revenue of 46.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.02% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 22.47% [3] - The company has obtained a mining license for the Ajiu Luogai phosphate mine, which is expected to enhance its resource supply and production capacity [6] Summary by Sections Market Data - The 52-week price range for the company's stock is between 6.15 and 9.22 yuan [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 156.97 billion yuan, down 2.78% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.69 billion yuan, down 6.36% year-on-year [3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 10.88%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points year-on-year [3] Investment Highlights - The decline in performance is attributed to the impact of prices for compound fertilizers and soda ash, with cautious purchasing behavior from distributors affecting sales [3] - The average price of compound fertilizers in Q3 2024 was 2,470 yuan/ton, up 2.75% year-on-year [3] - The company is focused on enhancing its integrated advantages in the nitrogen and phosphorus industry chains, supported by its rich resources [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 208 billion yuan, 219 billion yuan, and 227 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 8.48 billion yuan, 10.56 billion yuan, and 13.52 billion yuan [7][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilient performance in Q3 2024, achieving a total revenue of 396.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 191.32 billion yuan, up 13.23% year-on-year. This performance exceeded the annual growth target of 15% [1]. - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 1,231.23 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.91% increase year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 608.28 billion yuan, a 15.04% increase [1]. - The company is expected to meet its annual revenue growth target, supported by macroeconomic policies and the upcoming consumption peak during the New Year and Spring Festival [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Guizhou Moutai's revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor was 325.59 billion yuan and 62.46 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 16.32% and 13.14%. The revenue from Moutai liquor accounted for 83.90% of total revenue, an increase of 0.38 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The direct sales channel revenue in Q3 2024 was 182.61 billion yuan, up 23.50% year-on-year, with the direct sales channel's share increasing by 2.93 percentage points to 47.06% [1]. - The company’s net profit margin in Q3 2024 was 51.11%, a slight decrease of 0.82 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increases in tax and sales expense ratios [1]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for Guizhou Moutai for 2024-2026 is as follows: - Revenue: 1,732.73 billion yuan (2024), 1,943.37 billion yuan (2025), 2,170.68 billion yuan (2026) - Net profit: 862.15 billion yuan (2024), 968.99 billion yuan (2025), 1,089.91 billion yuan (2026) - EPS: 68.63 yuan (2024), 77.14 yuan (2025), 86.76 yuan (2026) [3][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable performance due to product structure optimization, marketing channel reforms, and capacity expansion [3]. Market Performance - As of October 25, 2024, Guizhou Moutai's stock price was 1,558.85 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 1,958.22 billion yuan [1][6]. - The stock has shown a performance of 11.4% over the past month, 9.0% over the past three months, but a decline of 4.1% over the past year compared to the CSI 300 index [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9][27] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in its Q3 2024 performance, with a notable increase in net profit and sales revenue, driven by high phosphate prices and strong product demand [2][3][9] - The company is actively advancing its key projects, particularly in new materials, which are expected to contribute to future profit growth [4][5][9] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 86.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.54% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32.69% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was 5.09 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 52.73% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.26% [2] Financial Metrics - The company reported a gross profit margin of 18.86% for Q3 2024, up 6.25 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The return on equity (ROE) for Q3 2024 was 2.43%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points year-on-year [2] Product Performance - The sales volume of glyphosate reached 62,500 tons in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 54.70% [2] - The average price of phosphate rock in Q3 2024 was 1,009 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 20.51% [2][3] Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 296 billion yuan, 324 billion yuan, and 343 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 18.17 billion yuan, 22.23 billion yuan, and 26.51 billion yuan [9][27] - The company is expected to maintain a strong position in the phosphate industry due to its resource advantages and ongoing development in new materials [5][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][9]. Core Views - The company has shown significant year-on-year growth in performance, driven by a robust external trade environment and continued capacity expansion in both domestic and international markets [4][5]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 1.162 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.18%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 278 million yuan, up 52.65% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company has been approved for a new capacity of 10,000 deadweight tons for chemical transportation, reflecting its strong compliance advantages and ongoing capacity expansion [2][3]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 390 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.42%, and a net profit of 98 million yuan, up 116.84% year-on-year [3][4]. - The gross margin in Q3 2024 improved by 8.94 percentage points to 25.56%, while the net profit margin increased by 8.47 percentage points to 23.10% [4]. Capacity Expansion - The company continues to expand its capacity with the launch of new chemical tankers, including two domestic trade vessels and one international trade vessel [2][3]. - The company scored 91.2 points in the Ministry of Transport's capacity review, ranking first and highlighting its competitive edge in compliance [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 1.605 billion yuan, 1.941 billion yuan, and 2.314 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 21%, and 19% respectively [6][7]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 358 million yuan, 422 million yuan, and 494 million yuan, with growth rates of 42%, 18%, and 17% respectively [6][7].