2024 年 10 月 24 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 姚健 S0350522030001 yaoj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 姚丹丹 S0350524060002 yaodd@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 杜先康 S0350523080003 duxk01@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] Q3 收入承压，毛利率同环比显著提升 ——芯源微（688037）2024 年三季报点评 事件: 最近一年走势 芯源微 10 月 23 日公告 2024 年三季报：2024 年前三季度公司实现收入 11.05 亿元，同比减少 8.44%；实现归母净利润 1.08 亿元，同比减少 51.12%；实现扣非归母净利润 0.40 亿元，同比减少 77.97%。 投资要点: 相对沪深 300 表现 2024/10/23 受长、短交验周期订单分布不均影响，2024Q3 收入承压。受订单结构、 排产及交付周期、客户端装调验收计划等因素影响，公司短交验周期订 单与长交验周期订单分布不均匀，导致分季度收入存在一定波动， 2024Q3 公司实现收入 4.11 亿元，同比减少 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown a year-on-year revenue growth of 19.99% in the first three quarters of 2024, achieving a total revenue of 1.892 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 596 million yuan, which is a 15.10% increase year-on-year [2][3] - The core growth driver for the company is its adsorption materials business, which has demonstrated strong resilience despite a relatively low lithium resource price environment [3][4] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 2.963 billion yuan, 3.645 billion yuan, and 4.430 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, alongside net profits of 910 million yuan, 1.150 billion yuan, and 1.419 billion yuan for the same years [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 597 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.92% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.00% [2] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 51.20%, up 1.78 percentage points year-on-year and 1.76 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 192 million yuan, which is an 11.71% increase year-on-year but a decrease of 18.13% quarter-on-quarter [2] Market Position - The company has maintained a strong market position, outperforming the CSI 300 index with a 1-month performance of 19.2% and a 3-month performance of 38.3% [2] - The company is actively expanding its business in various sectors, including lithium extraction, metal resources, life sciences, and water treatment, which are all contributing to its growth [3][4] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for the company are 29, 23, and 18 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][5] - The expected return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 22% for 2024 and 2025, reflecting strong profitability [5][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5][8] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met market expectations, with significant growth in revenue and net profit. Revenue reached 2.631 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 288 million yuan, up 40.3% year-on-year [1][2] - The order delivery scale aligns with market expectations, and the gross profit margin remains stable. In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.394 billion yuan from land cables (up 53.2% year-on-year) and 1.232 billion yuan from submarine cables and offshore engineering (up 64.3% year-on-year) [2] - The company's accounts receivable reached 3.889 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2024, an increase of 856 million yuan quarter-on-quarter and 924 million yuan year-on-year, marking a historical high [2] - The actual orders on hand for submarine cables exceeded 4 billion yuan, showing a significant increase compared to previous disclosures. The company is expected to see a peak in order fulfillment in the coming six months [2][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a comprehensive gross profit margin of 21.74%, remaining stable compared to previous periods. The operating performance, excluding credit impairment losses, was over 300 million yuan [2] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 8.81 billion yuan, 10.21 billion yuan, and 12.01 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.354 billion yuan, 1.814 billion yuan, and 2.249 billion yuan [5][6] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has successfully opened overseas markets, securing orders from Inch Cape Offshore and SSE, which provide long-term growth potential. The upcoming tendering for significant projects in Guangdong and Zhejiang is expected to further boost order intake [5][6] - The company’s stock has outperformed the CSI 300 index over various time frames, indicating strong market performance [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's gross profit margin continues to improve, reaching 38.83% in Q3 2024, an increase of 0.77 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs, product structure upgrades, and strong growth in high-margin products [2][3][4] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.364 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 432 million yuan, up 34.96% year-on-year [3][4] - The report anticipates strong performance in Q4 2024 and the full year, supported by product upgrades and channel optimization [4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 897 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.93%, and a net profit of 186 million yuan, up 64.79% year-on-year [3][4] - The company expects revenues of 3.464 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 10%, and net profits of 573 million yuan, reflecting a 25% increase [7][9] Product and Market Analysis - The company’s performance in Chinese condiments and winter seasonings was strong, with online sales growing by 55% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [4][6] - The report notes that the company has successfully launched new products and upgraded existing ones to align with current consumer trends, contributing to high-quality growth [4][6] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.881 billion yuan in 2025 and 4.301 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 663 million yuan and 750 million yuan, respectively [7][9] - The report maintains a positive outlook for the company, expecting continued growth driven by product innovation and channel efficiency improvements [6][9]

| --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-----------------------|------------------------| | 2024 | 年 10 月 25 日 | 晨会纪要 | | 研究所： 证券分析师： | 余春生 S0350513090001 | 晨会纪要 [Table_Title] | | | yucs@ghzq.com.cn | —— 2024 年第 182 期 | 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 利润端同比稳健增长，海外布局进一步扩张--杭叉集团/工程机械(603298/216406) 公司点评 并购重庆新里程，控股股东优质医院资产注入拉开序幕--新里程/医疗服务(002219/213706) 公司点评 利润持续释放，关注协同力及新供给的长期驱动--美团-W/本地生活服务Ⅱ(03690/214607) 点评报告（港股 美股） 短期盈利存扰动，看好公司长期稳健增长--海兴电力/电网设备(603556/216308) 公司点评 Q3 业绩超市场预期，海外&线上高增--泡泡玛特/文娱用品(09992/213605) 点评报告（港股美股） Q ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7][21] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in Q3 profits, with the α-olefin project opening up new growth opportunities [3][6][21] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth from 445 billion to 669 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with net profits increasing from 54 billion to 95 billion yuan during the same period [7][21] Summary by Sections Market Data - The 52-week price range for the company's stock is between 12.74 and 20.54 yuan [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 32.275 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.71%, and a net profit of 3.693 billion yuan, up 7.64% year-on-year [3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.875 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.89% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.51% [3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 23.62%, up 2.61 percentage points year-on-year [3] Price Trends and Material Costs - The average price of ethane in Q3 2024 was 115 USD/ton, down 45.62% year-on-year and 18.93% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The price spread for polyethylene was 7216 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.20% year-on-year [3] Project Developments - The company successfully launched the first phase of its 800,000-ton multi-carbon alcohol project in July 2024, which enhances its C3 integrated industrial chain [6] - The α-olefin comprehensive utilization project is under construction with a total planned investment of approximately 266 billion yuan [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have a PE ratio of 12, 9, and 7 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating strong future earnings potential [7][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded market expectations, with significant growth in both overseas and online channels [1] - Revenue in Q3 2024 increased by 120%-125% YoY, with mainland China revenue growing by 55%-60% and overseas revenue (including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) surging by 440%-445% [2] - The company's overseas expansion and online sales growth are key drivers of its performance [3][4] Mainland China Performance - Retail stores and robot stores in mainland China showed steady growth, with Q3 revenue increasing by 55%-60% YoY [3] - As of October 21, 2024, the company operated 423 stores (including Nanjing Golden Eagle) and 2,224 robot stores in mainland China [3] - Wholesale channels in mainland China grew by 45%-50% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] Online Performance - Online revenue growth accelerated significantly in Q3 2024, with WeChat抽盒机 revenue increasing by 55%-60% YoY and e-commerce platforms growing by 135%-140% YoY [3] - Tmall flagship store revenue surged by 155%-160% YoY, while Douyin flagship store revenue grew by 115%-120% YoY [3] - Douyin's core accounts generated a total GMV of RMB 215 million in Q3 2024, with a 56% MoM increase in September due to a promotional event [3] Overseas Expansion - Overseas revenue (including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) grew by 440%-445% YoY in Q3 2024, with full-year growth expected to exceed 300% [4] - The company expanded its overseas presence, opening 112 stores by October 21, 2024, including new theme stores in South Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan [4] - TikTok live streaming performed well, with cumulative GMV reaching approximately RMB 220 million, including RMB 90 million from the US and RMB 130 million from Thailand [5] New IP and Product Expansion - The company continued to expand its IP portfolio, launching 6 new IPs in 2024 and introducing 79 new blind box products in Q1-Q3 2024 [6] - New product lines, including labubu forest secret base building blocks and SP plush toys, were launched, with strong market performance [6] - The company diversified into new categories such as desserts, apparel, and accessories, with plans to open independent accessory stores in 2024 [6] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 12.07 billion, RMB 15.61 billion, and RMB 18.34 billion, respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 2.55 billion, RMB 3.34 billion, and RMB 4.01 billion for 2024-2026 [6] - Adjusted PE ratios for 2024-2026 are forecasted at 33X, 25X, and 21X, respectively [6] Valuation Metrics - The company's current price is HKD 75.20, with a 52-week range of HKD 16.90-76.70 [3] - Total market capitalization is HKD 100.99 billion, with a fully diluted market cap of HKD 100.99 billion [3] - Key valuation metrics include a P/E of 36.3X for 2024E, P/B of 9.3X, and P/S of 7.6X [7][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5][8] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 19% year-on-year, reaching 3.4 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 790 million yuan, up 18% year-on-year [2][4] - The sales gross margin improved by 6.1 percentage points year-on-year to 49.4% in Q3 2024, attributed to an increase in overseas revenue [2][4] - Domestic orders for electric meters are robust, with expected revenue from two major networks projected to reach 1.11 billion yuan in 2024, a 39% increase year-on-year [4] - The overseas market remains promising, with a 12.2% year-on-year increase in electric meter exports, particularly in Asia and Africa, which have high growth potential [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.15 billion yuan, a 16% increase year-on-year but a 15% decrease quarter-on-quarter [2] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 260 million yuan, an 11% increase year-on-year but a 19% decrease quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company expects revenue growth of 20%, 18%, and 19% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits projected to grow by 24%, 19%, and 19% in the same years [4][6] Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading exporter of electric meters, with a strong focus on overseas markets, particularly in regions with low penetration rates [4] - The current stock price is 40.34 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 19.71 billion yuan [3][8] Valuation Metrics - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates of 2.49 yuan for 2024, 2.98 yuan for 2025, and 3.56 yuan for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16.19, 13.55, and 11.34 [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 revenue growth shows signs of improvement, with expectations of benefiting from increased market activity [3][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.335 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.59%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 651 million yuan, down 15.53% year-on-year [2][3]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a single-quarter revenue of 945 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.81%, indicating the best performance in nearly six quarters [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's gross profit margin was 85.69%, a decrease of 2.37% year-on-year [3]. - The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 17.01%, 7.51%, and 37.89%, respectively, with slight increases compared to the previous year [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities and has increased investments in data procurement and organization [3][4]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has a strong user base in the C-end market and comprehensive coverage in the B-end market, with expectations for improved product monetization capabilities due to AI empowerment [6][7]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 3.753 billion, 4.314 billion, and 4.890 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.419 billion, 1.779 billion, and 2.186 billion yuan, respectively [6][7]. - The current stock price is 200.00 yuan, with a projected P/E ratio of 76, 60, and 49 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690 HK) [1] Core Views - Meituan's Q3 2024 revenue is expected to reach 921 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 20 5% and a QoQ increase of 12% [1] - Core local commerce revenue is projected at 687 billion yuan, with a YoY growth of 19% and QoQ growth of 13% [1] - The food delivery business is expected to generate 459 billion yuan in revenue, with a YoY increase of 15% and QoQ increase of 13%, and an operating profit margin of 17 8% [1] - Flash delivery revenue is forecasted at 67 billion yuan, with a YoY growth of 42% and an operating profit margin of 0 3% [1] - The in-store, hotel, and travel business is expected to achieve 154 billion yuan in revenue, with a YoY increase of 25% and QoQ increase of 11%, and an operating profit margin of 35% [1] - New business revenue is projected at 235 billion yuan, with a YoY growth of 25% and QoQ growth of 9%, and an operating profit margin of -8% [1] Core Local Commerce - Food Delivery Business - The food delivery business is expected to see a 14 6% YoY revenue increase to 459 billion yuan, with GTV growing 11% YoY and operating profit margin improving by 2 9 percentage points to 17 8% [1] - Order volume is expected to grow 12% YoY to 6 12 billion orders, driven by new supply models and marketing campaigns [1] - The "Autumn's First Milk Tea" campaign achieved a daily peak of 90 million orders in August 2024 [1] - Long-term growth is supported by adapting to consumer behavior changes and deepening the supply chain [1] Core Local Commerce - Flash Delivery Business - Flash delivery revenue is expected to grow 42% YoY to 67 billion yuan, with order volume increasing 37% YoY to 960 million orders [1] - The lightning warehouse model is a key driver, with over 30,000 warehouses currently and a projected 100,000 by 2027 [1] - Operating profit margin is expected to decline by 4 8 percentage points due to increased marketing and seasonal delivery costs [1] Core Local Commerce - In-Store, Hotel, and Travel Business - Revenue for this segment is expected to grow 25% YoY to 154 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 35% [1] - The "Shen Membership" integration is driving synergies, with GTV expected to grow 35% YoY [1] - The National Day Golden Week saw a 41 2% YoY increase in in-store consumption and a 69 6% YoY increase in tourist spending [1] - The segment is expected to achieve a 21% CAGR from 2023 to 2026 [1] New Business - New business revenue is expected to grow 25% YoY to 235 billion yuan, driven by Xiaoxiang Supermarket [1] - The segment's loss is expected to increase slightly to 1 8 billion yuan, mainly due to seasonal cold chain investments [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected at 3,328 billion yuan, 3,863 billion yuan, and 4,389 billion yuan, respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 33 2 billion yuan, 44 1 billion yuan, and 55 1 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [5] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 41 5 billion yuan, 57 3 billion yuan, and 68 3 billion yuan for the same period [5] - The target price is set at 230 yuan (250 HKD) based on SOTP valuation [5] Market Performance - Meituan-W has outperformed the Hang Seng Index with a 46 8% increase over the past month, 65% over three months, and 80 8% over twelve months [1] - The current stock price is 194 90 HKD, with a market capitalization of 1,185,913 94 million HKD [1]