2024 年 09 月 02 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 陈晨 S0350522110007 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------|-------|-------------| | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2024/08/30 | | | | | | | | | | | | 市场数据 | | | 2024/08/30 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 14.46 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | | 11.75-20.50 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 38,944.52 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 38,944.52 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 269,325.87 | | 流通股本（万股） | | | 269,325.87 | | 日均成交额（百万） | | | 518.30 | | 近一月换手（ | %） | | 0.61 | 表现 1M 3M 12M 淮北矿业 1.8% -21.3% 27.4% 沪深 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][4]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant performance improvement, with a 2024H1 revenue increase of 11% year-on-year to $820 million and a net profit increase of 25.6% to $62 million [2]. - The gross margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 32.9%, while the net profit margin increased by 1 percentage point to 7.6% [2]. - The company is expanding its product portfolio and diversifying its offerings, particularly in the lithium battery-powered outdoor power equipment (OPE) sector [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024H1, revenue from the OPE segment increased by 10.2% to $490 million, driven by accelerated inventory destocking and increased customer orders [2]. - Revenue from the electric tools segment rose by 9.5% to $314 million, attributed to the recovery of the company's ODM business [2]. - The company reported a strong sales performance across regions, with North America seeing a 13.8% revenue increase to $552 million, while Europe experienced a slight decline of 1.5% to $172 million [2]. Profitability Metrics - The company’s gross margin improved due to enhanced operational efficiency and favorable raw material costs [2]. - The selling, general, and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue were 13.1%, 5.2%, and 4.6% respectively, with a slight increase in sales expenses due to marketing and channel expansion investments [2]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of $1.66 billion, $1.95 billion, and $2.25 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of $117 million, $156 million, and $183 million [4][5]. - The report anticipates a significant recovery in profitability, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 10.7% in 2024, increasing to 12.5% by 2026 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shenzhen International (00152) as of August 30, 2024 [1]. Core Views - The logistics business is under short-term pressure, but the REITs off-balance sheet contribution has significantly boosted profits, with a tax-adjusted gain of HKD 587 million from REITs [3]. - The company has successfully optimized its debt structure, reducing foreign currency loans to 17% of total borrowings, which has led to a substantial decrease in exchange losses to HKD 26 million, down from HKD 584 million year-on-year [4]. - The company is committed to high shareholder returns, maintaining a dividend payout ratio around 50%, with projected dividend yields of 9.69% and 12.97% for 2024 and 2025, respectively [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, Shenzhen International reported revenue of HKD 6.61 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.46%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached HKD 653 million, a remarkable increase of 609.10% [2]. - The logistics segment generated revenue of HKD 882 million, down 4.69% year-on-year, but net profit from this segment increased by 34.39% to HKD 527 million [3]. Debt Management - The company has actively optimized its debt profile, resulting in a 27 percentage point reduction in foreign currency loan proportion compared to the previous year, effectively mitigating exchange rate risks [4]. Project Development - The South China logistics park project is progressing steadily, with the first land parcel successfully auctioned, providing a reference for land value within the company's development scope [5]. Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts revenues of HKD 15.99 billion, HKD 17.28 billion, and HKD 17.83 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 2.91 billion, HKD 3.89 billion, and HKD 3.11 billion [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the release of flexible DC demand, with a robust performance in its business segments [4][5] - The company is a leading player in flexible DC transmission, with anticipated growth in revenue and profit over the next few years [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 630 million yuan, an increase of 10% [3] - In Q2 2024, revenue reached 4.03 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 43% and a year-on-year increase of 3% [3] - The gross profit margin for H1 2024 was 20.9%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 10.6%, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [3] Business Segment Performance - The smart distribution and transformation system generated revenue of 2.12 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23.1% [5] - The smart meter segment saw revenue of 1.6 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 27.6% [5] - The direct current transmission system reported revenue of 150 million yuan, down 42% year-on-year, but with a high gross margin of 51.5% [5] Future Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 18.5 billion, 20.6 billion, and 23.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 12%, and 13% respectively [4][7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.29 billion, 1.70 billion, and 2.09 billion yuan, with growth rates of 28%, 31%, and 23% respectively [4][7] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 23X for 2024, 17X for 2025, and 14X for 2026 [4][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][4]. Core Views - The company's operating performance is under short-term pressure, but R&D investments are entering a harvest period [2]. - In H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 401 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.69%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 153 million yuan, down 36.19% year-on-year [2]. - The sales revenue from the pig vaccine business decreased by 28.04% year-on-year, while the poultry vaccine business saw a growth of 13.77% [2]. - The company has made progress in R&D, obtaining four new veterinary drug registration certificates [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 401 million yuan, down 24.69% year-on-year, and a net profit of 153 million yuan, down 36.19% year-on-year [2]. - For Q2 2024, revenue was 196 million yuan, a decrease of 22.49% year-on-year, with a net profit of 65 million yuan, down 36.91% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s gross margin decreased by 10.34 percentage points due to increased competition in the industry [2]. R&D Progress - The company has received registration certificates for four new veterinary drugs, including a new inactivated vaccine for pig coronavirus [2]. - Two products have completed re-examination tests, and there are ongoing re-examinations for other vaccines [2]. Market Confidence - The company initiated a share repurchase plan in February 2024, repurchasing 1.7845 million shares for a total of 30 million yuan by the end of June [2]. - The repurchased shares are intended for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives [2]. Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 975 million, 1.081 billion, and 1.240 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -8.41%, +10.96%, and +14.67% respectively [2]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is 361 million, 403 million, and 459 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -8.77%, +11.66%, and +13.92% respectively [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has achieved revenue growth of 9.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, with total revenue reaching 1.14 billion RMB [2][3] - Adjusted net profit for the same period is 130 million RMB, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 11.6% [2][3] - The company is expanding its "Double Beauty + Double Health" model, which is expected to enhance its market position and customer base [6] Financial Performance - The company's revenue breakdown shows that beauty and health services generated 620 million RMB, up 13.6% year-on-year, accounting for 54.7% of total revenue [3] - Medical beauty services contributed 440 million RMB, a modest increase of 0.3%, while sub-health medical services surged by 50% to 70 million RMB [3] - The gross profit margin improved to 47.0%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous year [2][3] Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully integrated the acquisition of the leading smart beauty brand, Nairui'er, which is expected to significantly enhance its market share [6] - As of mid-2024, the company operates over 409 stores, with 202 being direct-operated and 207 franchised [6] - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2024-2026 at 22%, 24%, and 14% respectively, with net profit growth of 12%, 25%, and 12% [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Pinggao Electric is maintained as "Buy" [1][5][7] Core Views - Pinggao Electric's performance continues to grow rapidly, benefiting from the high prosperity of domestic grid construction [1][4] - The company's revenue for H1 2024 reached 5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 60% to 530 million yuan [3][4] - The high voltage segment accounted for 60% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 27.6%, indicating a strong performance driven by the ongoing development of ultra-high voltage and main grid construction [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5 billion yuan, with a net profit of 530 million yuan, reflecting a 60% year-on-year increase [3][4] - Q2 2024 saw revenue of 3 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 47% and a year-on-year increase of 5% [3][4] - The gross profit margin for H1 2024 was 23.5%, up 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is positioned as a leading player in the high voltage switch market, with expectations of continued revenue growth driven by ultra-high voltage and main grid investments [4][5] - The high voltage segment's revenue share has increased, while the international segment has declined significantly, indicating a shift in focus towards domestic opportunities [4][5] - The company is enhancing its competitiveness in the distribution network business, which is expected to contribute to profit growth [4][5] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 12.3 billion, 13.9 billion, and 15.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 13%, and 11% respectively [5][6] - Net profit projections for the same period are 1.23 billion, 1.50 billion, and 1.73 billion yuan, with growth rates of 51%, 21%, and 16% respectively [5][6] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 20X in 2024 to 14X in 2026, indicating potential value appreciation [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The supply-demand relationship for thermal coal remains favorable, with high daily consumption and continued destocking at ports and power plants. Recent price adjustments have reduced risks, and the industry is expected to maintain a tight balance in the coming years. Coal companies exhibit high asset quality, abundant cash flow, and characteristics of high profitability, high cash flow, high barriers, high dividends, and high safety margins [2][3] - Focus on investment opportunities in low-priced coal stocks, including high-quality performance targets like Jinko Coal and Electric Power Energy, stable targets like China Coal Energy and Shenhua Energy, integrated coal and electricity targets like Xinji Energy, and low-priced metallurgical coal targets like Huaibei Mining and Pingmei Shenma [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Daily consumption remains high, with a slight decrease in inventory at ports and power plants. As of August 29, daily consumption for coastal power plants was 2.412 million tons, down 1.4 million tons week-on-week, while inland power plants consumed 3.784 million tons, down 1.7 million tons week-on-week [7][12] - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port increased slightly to 839 RMB/ton, up 6 RMB/ton week-on-week [8][12] - The production capacity utilization rate in the Sanxi region was 86.67%, with a weekly production of 11.7 million tons, down 10,000 tons week-on-week [12][21] 2. Coking Coal - The coking coal market shows signs of recovery, with some previously halted mines resuming production. As of August 29, the average crossing volume at Ganqimaodu port was 956 trucks, down 189 trucks week-on-week [28][33] - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang port increased to 1,770 RMB/ton, up 90 RMB/ton week-on-week [29][30] - The price of hard coking coal at Fengjing Mine was 212.5 USD/ton, down 2.4 USD/ton week-on-week, equivalent to approximately 1,840 RMB/ton [28][29] 3. Coke - The coke market faces challenges with declining prices and increased production costs, leading to reduced production enthusiasm among coking enterprises. However, the demand from steel mills is showing signs of improvement as steel prices rise [3][28] 4. Hydropower Situation - The outflow from the Three Gorges Reservoir increased to 10,700 cubic meters per second, despite a decrease in water level to 152.4 meters [25][27]

Macro Data - The US PCE price index increased by 2.5% year-on-year in July, slightly below the expected 2.6% [1] - The US Q2 GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth was revised up to 3%, compared to the initial estimate of 2.8% [1] - Japan's Tokyo CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year in August, exceeding expectations [1] - The Eurozone HICP preliminary value for August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, the lowest since August 2021 [1] Company Performance - Anta Sports reported a 13.8% year-on-year increase in revenue for H1 2024, reaching 33.735 billion yuan, with a net profit of 7.721 billion yuan, up 62.6% [2][3] - The gross profit margin for Anta Sports improved to 64.1%, with a net profit margin of 22.9% [2][3] - Anta's brand revenue was 16.08 billion yuan, a 13.5% increase, while FILA's revenue was 13.06 billion yuan, up 6.8% [2][3] - China Tobacco Hong Kong reported a total revenue of 8.7 billion HKD for H1 2024, a 12.4% increase, with a net profit of 640 million HKD, up 40.8% [4] - Miniso achieved a revenue of 7.76 billion yuan in H1 2024, a 25% increase, with a net profit of 1.24 billion yuan, up 18% [5][6] Brand and Product Insights - Anta's footwear revenue increased by 18% to 14.64 billion yuan, while apparel revenue rose by 10.8% to 18.08 billion yuan [2][3] - The gross profit for Anta's brands increased by 15.3% to 21.618 billion yuan, achieving the highest gross profit margin in history [3] - China Tobacco's cigarette export revenue surged by 127.9% to 550 million HKD, driven by the recovery of duty-free market traffic [4] - Miniso's domestic same-store sales grew by 16%, outperforming the industry average [6] Market Trends - The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary index showed a slight decline of 0.23%, while the Hang Seng Consumer index increased by 3.39% [8] - Notable stock performances included China Feihe, which rose by 19.37%, and Miniso, which increased by 5.61% [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum price remains strong, with expectations for increased demand during the peak season and potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][12] - The overall supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, with some regional power supply issues affecting production [8][10] - The downstream demand for aluminum is steady, with some recovery in orders for aluminum products, although concerns about high prices are affecting production willingness [8][12] Summary by Sections Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK): Current price 9.76, 2024E EPS 2.12, 2025E EPS 2.25, 2024E PE 4.6, Investment rating: Buy [6] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ): Current price 6.81, 2024E EPS 0.91, 2025E EPS 0.97, 2024E PE 7.5, Investment rating: Buy [6] - China Aluminum (601600.SH): Current price 6.83, 2024E EPS 0.77, 2025E EPS 0.86, 2024E PE 8.9, Investment rating: Buy [6] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ): Current price 15.05, 2024E EPS 2.15, 2025E EPS 2.56, 2024E PE 7.0, Investment rating: Buy [6] - Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ): Current price 12.08, 2024E EPS 1.41, 2025E EPS 1.59, 2024E PE 8.5, Investment rating: Buy [6] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown a slight decline of -0.2% over the past month, -14.7% over three months, and -8.6% over the past year [4] Macro Environment - The macroeconomic outlook is favorable, with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and continued efforts in China to boost consumption [8][12] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, with some regions experiencing power supply constraints [8] - Domestic aluminum processing rates are stable, with a slight increase in orders for certain products, although overall demand remains cautious [8][12] Price Trends - As of August 30, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $2446.0 per ton, down 3.5% week-on-week but up 12.8% year-on-year [20] - The domestic aluminum price is 19850.0 RMB per ton, up 0.3% week-on-week and up 6.3% year-on-year [20] Production and Inventory - The weekly production of electrolytic aluminum is 833,000 tons, stable compared to the previous week and up 1.5% year-on-year [44] - The inventory of aluminum rods remains in a good de-inventory trend, with a current level of 110,100 tons [8]