Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with Q2 2024 total revenue reaching 3.78 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27.4% [3][4] - Non-GAAP operating profit for Q2 2024 was 94.07 million RMB, up 81.0% year-on-year, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of positive Non-GAAP operating profit [3][4] - The company expects Q3 2024 revenue to be between 3.97 billion and 4.07 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.9% to 25.0% [3] Revenue Breakdown - In Q2 2024, the company's 1P product revenue was 3.40 billion RMB, a 29.0% increase year-on-year, driven by growth in second-hand electronic product sales [4] - 3P service revenue reached 370 million RMB, a 14.6% increase year-on-year, attributed to the growth of services like "拍机堂" and multi-category business services [4] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for Q2 2024 was 20.8%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the same period last year [3] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q2 2024 was 80.49 million RMB, up 121.2% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 2.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 16.4 billion, 20.5 billion, and 24.8 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 24%, and 21% [5][6] - Non-GAAP net profits are projected to be 400 million, 610 million, and 850 million RMB for the same years, with growth rates of 76%, 55%, and 38% respectively [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to ZKH (首次覆盖) [1] Core Views - ZKH's scale advantage is driving profit improvement, and the share buyback plan demonstrates confidence in future development [1] - ZKH's platform operations remain stable, with the Gongbangbang platform showing strong growth [2] - Revenue is growing rapidly, with marginal improvement in profit levels [2] - The company has completed multiple rounds of financing, attracting well-known institutions such as Zhongding Capital and Genesis Capital [2] - The share buyback plan reflects management's confidence in the company's long-term development [2] Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, ZKH achieved revenue of 2.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [2] - Non-GAAP adjusted net profit was -35 million yuan, a reduction in loss of 95 million yuan compared to the same period last year [2] - Gross margin was 17.0%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The ZKH platform's GMV was 2.48 billion yuan, up 4.4% year-on-year, with revenue of 1.893 billion yuan, up 7.8% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 15.5%, up 1.81 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The Gongbangbang platform's GMV was 270 million yuan, up 17.8% year-on-year, with revenue of 270 million yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 5.6%, down 0.29 percentage points year-on-year [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Forecasted revenue for 2024-2026E is 9.77 billion yuan, 10.82 billion yuan, and 11.76 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026E is 86 million yuan, 402 million yuan, and 724 million yuan, respectively [3] - The corresponding P/E ratios are 47.9X, 10.3X, and 5.7X, respectively [3] Valuation Metrics - ROE is expected to improve from -9.5% in 2023A to 16.4% in 2026E [4] - Gross margin is forecasted to increase from 17% in 2023A to 20% in 2026E [5] - Revenue growth rate is projected to be 12% in 2024E, 11% in 2025E, and 9% in 2026E [5] - Net profit growth rate is expected to be 128% in 2024E, 366% in 2025E, and 80% in 2026E [5] Share Buyback Plan - ZKH announced a share buyback plan on June 14, 2024, intending to repurchase up to $50 million worth of ADS within the next 12 months [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" (downgraded) for the company [1]. Core Views - The overall performance of the company remains robust, with a focus on the release schedule of upcoming game products [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 25.485 billion RMB in Q2 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.1% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.759 billion RMB, down 18.0% year-on-year and 11.5% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.819 billion RMB, down 13.3% year-on-year and 8.1% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The gross margin decreased to 62.9%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.4 percentage points [2]. Financial Performance - The gaming and value-added services segment generated revenue of 20.1 billion RMB in Q2 2024, up 6.7% year-on-year but down 6.5% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 69.5% [3]. - Mobile game revenue saw a strong year-on-year growth of 16.1%, while PC game revenue declined by 0.1% due to base effects [3]. - Notable games such as "Party of Eggs," "Identity V," and "Rate the Land" continue to attract players, with "Naraka: Bladepoint" achieving record daily active users [3]. - The company has several major products lined up for release in the second half of the year, including "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" and "Marvel: Battle Lines" [3]. Other Business Segments - NetEase Youdao reported Q2 2024 revenue of 1.32 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, with significant growth in digital content services and online marketing services [3]. - NetEase Cloud Music achieved revenue of 2.04 billion RMB in Q2 2024, up 4.7% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement to 32% [3]. - The innovation and other business segment generated revenue of 2.07 billion RMB, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 104.7 billion RMB, 115.9 billion RMB, and 124.9 billion RMB for FY2024-2026, respectively [6]. - Adjusted net profits are projected to be 31.9 billion RMB, 36.0 billion RMB, and 39.9 billion RMB for the same period [6]. - The target price is set at 144 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's 2024H1 performance significantly exceeded market expectations, with revenue and profit showing substantial year-over-year growth [5] - Overseas revenue growth and domestic category expansion are key drivers of the company's performance [3][5] - The company's gross margin improved significantly, and cost control was effective [5] - The company's cash position increased, and operational conditions improved [5] - Overseas and Douyin (TikTok) channels contributed significantly to revenue growth [6][7] - The company has diversified its product categories, with blind box sales accounting for less than 60% of total revenue [9] - The company is exploring new business areas such as theme parks and games, expanding IP commercialization [10][11] Market Performance - The company's stock outperformed the Hang Seng Index significantly over the past 12 months, with a 104.1% increase compared to the Hang Seng Index's -1.3% [2] - The company's current stock price is HKD 47.75, with a 52-week price range of HKD 16.90-48.25 [2] - The company's market capitalization is HKD 64,125.54 million, with a daily average trading volume of HKD 381.16 million [2] Financial Performance - 2024H1 revenue reached RMB 4.56 billion (YOY +62%), with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 920 million (YOY +93.3%) [4][5] - Adjusted net profit was RMB 1.02 billion (YOY +90.1%), with an adjusted profit margin of 22.3% (up 3.3 percentage points YoY) [5] - Gross margin increased to 64% (up 3.7 percentage points YoY) [5] - Cash on hand increased to RMB 7.01 billion (YOY +17.6%) [5] Revenue Breakdown - Domestic revenue in 2024H1 was RMB 3.21 billion (YOY +31.5%), accounting for 70.3% of total revenue [3] - Overseas revenue in 2024H1 was RMB 1.35 billion (YOY +259.6%), accounting for 29.7% of total revenue [7] - Online revenue in 2024H1 grew by 34%, with Douyin channel revenue increasing by 90.7% [7] - Offline revenue in 2024H1 grew by 24.7% for stores and 16.2% for robots [3] Product and IP Performance - 7 IPs generated over RMB 100 million in revenue in 2024H1, with MOLLY revenue increasing by 90.1% [9] - Blind box and figurine revenue accounted for 58.3% of total revenue, down 14.2 percentage points YoY [9] - MEGA, plush, and derivative products saw significant revenue growth, with plush revenue increasing by 993.6% [9] - The company launched new product categories such as cards, building blocks, and POP CUBE [9] Expansion and Future Plans - The company plans to open 30-40 new overseas stores in the second half of 2024 [7] - The company is exploring new business areas such as theme parks and games, with the launch of its first mobile game "Dream Home" in June 2024 [10][11] - The company is expanding its IP commercialization through collaborations and pop-up stores [10][11] Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 10.20 billion in 2024, RMB 13.09 billion in 2025, and RMB 15.48 billion in 2026 [12] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 2.06 billion in 2024, RMB 2.66 billion in 2025, and RMB 3.18 billion in 2026 [12] - The company's adjusted PE ratio is expected to be 26X in 2024, 20X in 2025, and 17X in 2026 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W (1024.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q2 2024 reached RMB 30.975 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.3% [5] - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 4.679 billion, exceeding market expectations, with an adjusted net profit margin improving to 15.1% [3][5] - The company continues to leverage AI to enhance its core business operations, with significant improvements in profitability and user engagement metrics [6][7] Summary by Sections User Growth and Engagement - Kuaishou's platform user metrics show robust growth, with Monthly Active Users (MAU) reaching 692 million and Daily Active Users (DAU) at 395 million, maintaining high user engagement with an average daily usage time of 122 minutes [2][3] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 was 55.3%, an increase of 5.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The sales expense ratio was 32.4%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the R&D expense ratio decreased to 9.1% [3] - The company achieved a significant year-on-year increase in online marketing service revenue, which grew by 22.1% to RMB 17.5 billion [4] Business Segments - Live streaming revenue for Q2 2024 was RMB 9.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% but an increase of 8.5% quarter-on-quarter [4] - Other business revenues increased by 21.3% to RMB 4.2 billion, with e-commerce GMV growing by 15% to RMB 305.3 billion [4][5] AI Integration - Kuaishou has developed an advanced AI matrix, including large language models and visual generation models, which are integrated into various business scenarios to enhance content creation and user interaction [6][7] Profitability Forecast - The report projects revenues for FY2024-2026 to be RMB 127.8 billion, RMB 142.5 billion, and RMB 157.4 billion respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 18.3 billion, RMB 23.3 billion, and RMB 27.8 billion [7][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is currently facing pressure on performance due to a decline in sales volume but an increase in average selling prices. The new industry regulations are expected to improve performance in the future [2][3] - The company has a strong position in the industry, benefiting from the recent government regulations aimed at standardizing the electric two-wheeler market [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 14.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.03 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year [2] - The company sold 6.383 million electric bicycles and scooters, a decline of 22.3% year-on-year, while the average price increased by 3.0% to 1,533.2 yuan per unit [2] Business Segments - The electric bicycle segment generated revenue of 6.24 billion yuan, down 18.3% year-on-year, with sales of 4.483 million units, a decrease of 19.1%. The average price was 1,391.9 yuan per unit, up 0.9% [3] - The electric scooter segment achieved revenue of 3.55 billion yuan, down 22.5% year-on-year, with sales of 1.9 million units, a decline of 28.9%. The average price increased by 9.0% to 1,866.7 yuan per unit [3] Market Position - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the new industry standards, having secured three out of six spots in the first batch of companies meeting the new regulatory conditions [3] - The company's stock has underperformed relative to the Hang Seng Index, with a decline of 25.9% over the past 12 months [3] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 18.0%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix optimization and rising prices of batteries and electric drive products [3] - The company has effectively controlled its expenses, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios at 4.2%, 2.9%, and 3.4%, respectively [3] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 32.557 billion yuan, 37.583 billion yuan, and 43.465 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -6.35%, +15.44%, and +15.65% respectively. Net profit forecasts are 2.635 billion yuan, 3.228 billion yuan, and 3.817 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -0.20%, +22.51%, and +18.23% respectively [3][5]

2024 年 08 月 26 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2024 年第 149 期 最新报告摘要 2024 年 H1 归母净利润同比高增 70%，新能源车项目加码持续贡献业绩弹性--浙江仙通/汽车零部件 (603239/212802) 公司动态研究 2024Q2 业绩符合我们预期，产品周期即将开启--吉比特/游戏Ⅱ(603444/217204) 公司点评 业绩稳健增长，盈利能力维持稳定--伊之密/专用设备(300415/216402) 公司点评 2024Q2 业绩亮眼，公司基本面持续向好--吉利汽车/乘用车(00175/212805) 点评报告（港股美股） Q2 收入增速回正，关注齿科需求恢复节奏--美亚光电/专用设备(002690/216402) 公司点评 2024Q2 利润高增，成本费用管控成效显现--广联达/软件开发(002410/217104) 公司点评 散单件量年底有望翻倍，核心成本再创新低--中通快递-W/物流(02057/214208) 点评报告（港股美股） 盈利能力持续 ...

Group 1 - The report identifies three types of trading scenarios during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts: easing trades, recession trades, and recovery trades [2][7][22] - Easing trades occur when the Federal Reserve shifts its monetary policy from tight to loose, often triggered by cooling employment or manufacturing data [7][9] - Recession trades are triggered by significant systemic risks or economic downturns when the policy easing is insufficient [9][11] Group 2 - The report outlines that in the four interest rate cut cycles since 1995, U.S. stocks generally rise during easing and recovery trades, with the Nasdaq showing greater elasticity [15][17] - In easing trades, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar do not necessarily decline, while gold tends to outperform copper and oil [17][19] - The report notes that the current interest rate cut cycle is likely to resemble the "soft landing" scenarios of 1995 and 2019, with a high probability of a rate cut in September 2024 [22][23][24] Group 3 - The analysis of past interest rate cut cycles reveals that the performance of major asset classes typically follows the order of stocks outperforming bonds, which in turn outperform commodities during recovery phases [23][27] - The report emphasizes that the economic backdrop for the current rate cut cycle is more similar to 2019, with significant risks from U.S.-China trade tensions and a weaker performance of major European economies compared to the U.S. [22][27] - The report concludes that the market's focus will be on the pace and depth of future rate cuts, as the current economic indicators suggest a potential soft landing [22][23][24]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact on Real Estate - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key factor influencing global capital markets, with a 52% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 48% probability of a 50 basis point cut by September 2024[1] - Historical analysis shows that after the initial rate cuts, there are significant changes in housing prices, sales, and asset allocation among residents[1] Group 2: Historical Rate Cut Cycles - The report examines five complete rate cut cycles since 1982, focusing on the changes in real estate indicators before and after the cuts[1] - In the first cycle (1984-1986), the average housing purchase power index increased from 86.25% to 91.62%, while the leverage ratio rose from 48.4% to 56.6%[4] - The second cycle (1989-1992) saw a decline in housing purchase power, with the mortgage payment-to-disposable income ratio increasing from 5.79% to 6.03%[4] - The third cycle (2001-2003) experienced a rise in housing purchase power, with the index moving from 122.1% to 129.13%[5] - The fourth cycle (2007-2008) was marked by a significant decline in housing sales and prices, with the average monthly sales dropping from 80.5 thousand to 49.6 thousand[6] - The fifth cycle (2019-2020) benefited from substantial fiscal stimulus, leading to an increase in housing sales and a drop in the mortgage payment-to-disposable income ratio to 4.03%[7] Group 3: Current Market Conditions - As of 2023, the U.S. has seen a net immigration increase of approximately 3.3 million, which is expected to boost housing demand[10] - The current mortgage payment-to-disposable income ratio is at 4.03%, indicating a relatively low burden on residents[10] - However, housing affordability remains a concern, with the average cost of owning a typical home consuming 35.1% of average wages, the highest since 2007[11] - The overall delinquency rate for mortgages is low, at about 1.3%, suggesting a healthy balance sheet for residents[10]

2024 年 08 月 26 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 研究所： [Table_Title] Space X 计划进行首次私人太空行走， 特斯拉上海储能超级工厂建设进度近半 ——新材料行业周报 投资要点: 最近一年走势 核心逻辑 行业相对表现 2024/08/23 表现 1M 3M 12M 基础化工 -4.8% -19.8% -23.7% 沪深 300 -3.3% -8.6% -10.0% 相关报告 《化工新材料产业周报：台积电通过 296 亿美元资 本预算，2024 年我国商业航天规模望超 2.3 万亿元 （推荐）*基础化工*李永磊，董伯骏，陈云》—— 2024-08-19 《基础化工行业周报：甘氨酸、聚合 MDI 价格上涨， 宝丰能源、振华股份净利润同比增长（推荐）*基 础化工*李永磊，董伯骏》——2024-08-19 2024-08-16 《石油芳烃行业报告：芳烃有望迎来景气上行周期 （推 荐）*基础 化工* 董伯 骏 ...