研究所： 证券分析师： 胡国鹏 S0350521080003 hugp@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 袁稻雨 S0350521080002 yuandy@ghzq.com.cn 2024 年 09 月 24 日 策略点评 [Table_Title] 四箭齐发，积极看多 策略点评 最近一年走势 相关报告 《策略周报：美联储降息如何影响海外市场——美 国 降 息 系 列 专 题 3* 胡 国 鹏 ， 袁 稻 雨 》 — — 2024-09-22 金融政策应出尽出，总量和地产政策力度空前。总量政策三箭齐发， 降准降息和房贷利率同步调降，一是央行宣布下调 7 天 OMO 政策利 率 20BP，降低存款准备金率 50BP，总量政策调降力度已超过今年 1-8 月的累计水平,有望带动 MLF 利率下行 30BP、LPR 和存款利率下行 20-25BP 不等，预计对银行净息差影响中性；二是统一首套、二套房 贷最低首付比例为15%，引导存量房贷利率平均下调约0.5个百分点， 预计每年节省居民房贷利息支出约 1500 亿元。地产方面，保障房、 收储等支持政策进一步加力，后续允许政策性银行、商业银行贷款 支持企业市场化收购 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][6]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated stable revenue growth and improved profitability in the first half of 2024, with a revenue of 12.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and a net profit of 2.5 billion yuan, up 70% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product strength and expanding its global presence in the power and energy storage sectors [5][6]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue in the first half of 2024 was 12.47 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 1% year-on-year, primarily driven by a 43% increase in energy storage system sales, while power battery sales decreased by 6% to 9.72 billion yuan [3][4]. - The overall gross margin improved to approximately 15.6%, up 6 percentage points year-on-year, and the net loss from other operations decreased from 320 million yuan to 140 million yuan [4]. Market Position and Growth - The company maintained a solid position in the power battery market, with a global installed capacity of 16.7 GWh in the first half of 2024, representing a 35% year-on-year growth and a market share of 4.6%, ranking fifth globally [4]. - In the domestic market, the installed capacity reached 13.8 GWh, a 10% increase year-on-year, with a market share of 6.9%, ranking third [4]. Product Development and Innovation - The company is committed to continuous product innovation, launching new series and solid-state batteries, with plans for mass production by 2027 [5][6]. - The energy storage market saw significant growth, with the company achieving high shipment volumes and receiving recognition from strategic customers [4][5]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 31.85 billion yuan, 40.56 billion yuan, and 49.53 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits expected to reach 560 million yuan, 720 million yuan, and 1.06 billion yuan in the same years [6][7].

2024 年 09 月 24 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 刘熹 S0350523040001 liux10@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 鸿蒙原生：生态应用"裂变"生长，万物互联时 代已来 ——计算机行业动态研究 最近一年走势 事件： 2024 年 9 月 21 日，华为全联接大会 2024 上，华为终端云总裁朱勇刚 宣布：已有超 1 万个应用和元服务上架 HarmonyOS NEXT（原生鸿蒙） 应用市场，可满足消费者 99.9%的使用时长。 投资要点: 鸿蒙原生：应用和开发生态繁荣生长，原生智能焕然一新 2024 年 9 月 21 日，华为终端云总裁朱勇刚表示：已有超 1 万个应 用和元服务上架 HarmonyOS NEXT（原生鸿蒙）应用市场，覆盖了 18 个垂域，满足消费者 99.9%的使用时长，标志着鸿蒙生态的全面成熟与 加速发展。得益于蚂蚁集团、中国银联、科大讯飞等千余家伙伴助力， 通过开放垂域创新，贡献 mPaaS 等中间件，470 多款 SDK 正在适配原 生鸿蒙，使得应用开发工作量最高可降低 90%。目前，华为开发者联盟 注册开发者数量已增 ...

52 周价格区间（元） 9.41-15.54 2024 年 09 月 24 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 拟出售 TMD 公司股权，为格拉默美洲区扭亏为 盈夯实基础 ——继峰股份（603997）公司点评 最近一年走势 事件: 2024 年 9 月 22 日，继峰股份发布公告：公司控股子公司格拉默拟以 4,000 万美元的初始交易价格向 APC LLC 出售 TMD LLC100%股权。 投资要点: 此次交易将对公司本年度业绩造成重大影响，为格拉默美洲区扭亏 为盈夯实基础。本次交易主要系 TMD 公司产品与公司其他产品协同 效应不强，公司拟通过这次交易聚焦主业，提升核心竞争力。本次 出售 TMD LLC100%股权将对公司本年度业绩造成重大影响，据公 司初步核算，预计亏损 2.8~3.8 亿元人民币。我们认为，虽然本次交 易将承担财务损失，但却是公司在美洲区域有序推行自身业务结构 的优化调整，找到持续亏损的源头，并从源头上解决问题的体现， 为未来北美地区业务的不亏损甚至盈利夯实了基础。我 ...

| --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-----------------------|------------------------| | 2024 | 年 09 月 24 日 | 晨会纪要 | | 研究所： 证券分析师： | 余春生 S0350513090001 | 晨会纪要 [Table_Title] | | | yucs@ghzq.com.cn | —— 2024 年第 168 期 | 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 扩产夯实"双百亿"基础，创新助力高质量发展--今世缘/白酒Ⅱ(603369/213405) 公司动态研究 橡胶、原油价格上涨，万华化学 3800 吨香酮项目环评公示--行业周报 动力煤继续去库存、涨价格，基本面向好--行业周报 工信部推广国产 DUV 光刻机--行业周报 市场底部区间维持非银推荐，重申加密货币赛道有望开启上攻行情--行业周报 基于久期的固收+组合构建--债券研究周报 2024 年 1-7 月激光雷达市场增长强劲，搭载华为乾崑智驾、全新岚图梦想家正式上市--北交所行业普通报告 基本盘稳固，中期分红显诚意--新华文轩/出版(601 ...

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Core Views - The LiDAR market has shown strong growth in the first seven months of 2024, with RoboSense leading the market with a 37% share, followed by Huawei Technologies with 26.4% [12] - The high-precision map market is dominated by AutoNavi with a 57.8% share, while Tencent holds 18.7% [14] - The ADAS market is led by Bosch with a 22.5% share, followed by Denso and ZF with 9.9% and 8.1% respectively [16] - The intelligent driving domain control market is moving towards collaborative customization, with Desay SV leading with a 23.3% share [18] - The new Voyah Dreamer, launched on September 19, 2024, features Huawei's Qiankun Intelligent Driving ADS 3.0 system and Hongmeng Intelligent Cockpit, positioning it strongly in the high-end MPV market [20][22] Market Performance - The A-share market saw significant gains in real estate (+6.86%), non-ferrous metals (+5.21%), and household appliances (+4.30%) from September 18 to September 20, 2024 [26] - The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index had a PE TTM of 24.31X, with a 5-day moving average trading volume of 2.86 billion shares and a turnover rate of 1.21% on September 20, 2024 [34] Industry News - Beijing's intelligent connected new energy vehicle industry output exceeded 226 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a 16.1% year-on-year increase [40] - IM Motors announced that its IM AD map-free city NOA will be available nationwide in October 2024 [40] - XPeng P7+, positioned as the world's first AI car, made its debut at the 2024 Yunqi Conference [41] - Harmony Intelligent Drive's full lineup achieved over 10,000 orders during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday [41] - Zeekr 009 Glory delivered its 1,000th unit within 115 days of launch [42] - Zeekr 7X, a smart luxury SUV with standard LiDAR and over 600km range, started test drives on September 20, 2024 [42] - Shenlan L07, set to launch on September 20, 2024, will feature Huawei's Qiankun Intelligent System [43] - GAC Group and Huawei upgraded their digital cooperation to accelerate product intelligence [43] - GAC Aion AION RT, targeting XPeng MONA M03, will start pre-sales on September 26, 2024 [44] - Aion Tyrannosaurus 520 LiDAR Edition is leading the popularization of intelligent driving technology [44]

Investment Rating - Buy rating (first coverage) [2] Core Views - The company's general book business outperformed the market, with steady growth in total profit and a proposed interim dividend of RMB 0.19 per share for 2024 [2] - Revenue in 2024H1 reached RMB 5.788 billion, a YoY increase of 6.64%, with general book revenue at RMB 3.144 billion, up 5.46% YoY, outperforming the general book market which declined by 6.2% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024H1 was RMB 716 million, a YoY decrease of 6.08%, but total profit increased by 5.83% YoY to RMB 848 million, benefiting from the Western Development Strategy and a preferential tax rate of 15% [2] - The company announced a semi-annual dividend plan for 2024, proposing a cash dividend of RMB 1.9 per 10 shares, with a total dividend of RMB 230 million and a dividend payout ratio of 32.75% [2] Financial Performance - In 2024H1, the company achieved a gross profit of RMB 2.226 billion, a YoY increase of 5.61%, with a gross margin of 38.46% [2] - The company's net profit margin in 2024H1 was 12%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 10% [8] - Revenue growth is forecasted to be 4% in 2024, 4% in 2025, and 5% in 2026, with net profit growth expected to be -5% in 2024, 11% in 2025, and 7% in 2026 [8] Business Segments - The education services segment saw growth driven by high school textbooks and educational informatization, with textbook and supplementary material sales reaching RMB 3.36 billion in 2024H1, up 2.25% YoY [3] - The general book segment grew against the trend, with sales reaching RMB 6.888 billion in 2024H1, a YoY increase of 16.06%, driven by increased market-oriented educational and literary publications [3] - The company's online platform "Wenxuan Youxue" covered 6,036 schools and served 4.7468 million students [3] Market Position - The company's market share in the general book market ranked 9th among 37 publishing and media groups in China, up 2 places from the end of 2023 [5] Valuation and Forecast - The company's revenue is forecasted to be RMB 12.4 billion in 2024, RMB 12.9 billion in 2025, and RMB 13.6 billion in 2026, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be RMB 1.5 billion, RMB 1.7 billion, and RMB 1.8 billion respectively [5] - The company's P/E ratio is forecasted to be 11x in 2024, 10x in 2025, and 9x in 2026 [5]

2024 年 09 月 23 日 行业研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 谢文迪 S0350522110004 xiewd@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 林晓莹 S0350123070003 linxy02@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 美联储降息"靴子落地" ，宏观与基本面共振助 力有色价格 ——钢铁与大宗商品行业周报 投资要点 最近一年走势 美联储降息落地，贵金属最为受益。9 月 19 日凌晨 2 点，美联储宣 布联邦基金利率的目标区间从 5.25%-5.50%降至 4.75%-5.0%，降幅 50 个基点。这是美联储 2022 年 3 月启动本轮紧缩周期以来首次降息。 根据最新的"点阵图"，美联储预计年内将再降息 50bp，2025 年降 息 100bp，2026 年降息 50bp，使得整体降息幅度达到 250bp，利率 终点为 2.75%-3%。美联储利率展望大为"鸽化"，但相较于市场交 易的 2025 年就要到达 2.75%-3%的预期更为保守偏"鹰"。从本次 降息 50BP 后的市场表现来看，大宗商品中黄金表现最佳。 行业相对表现 2024/09/20 表现 1M 3M 12 ...

2024 年 09 月 23 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 陈晨 S0350522110007 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 动力煤继续去库存、涨价格，基本面向好 ——煤炭开采行业周报 投资要点: 最近一年走势 相关报告 《煤炭开采行业动态研究：8 月动力煤行业大幅去 库存，火力发电增速转正（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》 ——2024-09-20 动力煤产业链方面，目前供应端整体弹性较小，电力需求仍处高位， 非电需求环比提升，北方及南方港口库存持续回落，行业结构性缺 货问题依然较为严重，上周产地和港口市场价格继续小幅上涨，煤 价表现强于预期，十一节前补库需求仍有释放，港口煤价预计仍偏 强。焦煤产业链方面，产业链企稳回升，上周铁水产量继续回升， 螺纹钢价格有所回升，焦炭提涨落地后有提产预期，外蒙古通关量 依然偏低，近两日煤矿竞拍成交有所回升，港口焦煤价格呈现企稳 回升迹象。从大方向来看，行业投资逻辑依然未变，我们预计未来 若干年，煤炭行业依然维持紧平衡状态，煤炭行业资产质量高，账 上现金流充沛，煤炭上市公司继续呈现"高盈利、高现金流、高壁 垒、高分红 ...