房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024年4月30日 600325.SH 华发股份 买入 营收规模稳步增长；经营性现金流明显优化 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 6.27 摘要：华发股份公布2023年年报，公司实现营业总收入721.4亿元，同比增长19.4%； 归母净利润18.4亿元，同比下降29.6%。公司拟每10股派发现金股息3.7元（含税）， 板块评级:强于大市 分红率为55.41%。  公司营收规模稳步增长，业绩承压，待结算资源充沛。2023年公司营收同比增长19.4%，归母净利润同比 下降29.6%，主要是因为：1）结算利润率下滑，公司毛利率为18.1%，同比下降2.0个百分点。2）投资 收益同比大幅下降81.7%至2.8亿元。3）受市场环境影响，公司计提资产减值损失15.9亿元（2022年为 股价表现 7.6亿元）。4）合联营项目结算利润提升，少数股东损益/净利润同比小幅提升0.5个百分点至47.0%。2023 年公司净利率和归母净利润率分别为4.8%和2.5%，同比分别下降了3.3、1.8个百分点。三费率明显改善， 同比下降0.7个百分点至5.7%，其中职工薪酬下降，管理费用同比下 ...

本报告准确表述了证券分析师的个人观点。该证券分析师声明，本人未在公司内、外部机构兼任有损本人独立性与客 观性的其他职务，没有担任本报告评论的上市公司的董事、监事或高级管理人员；也不拥有与该上市公司有关的任何 财务权益；本报告评论的上市公司或其它第三方都没有或没有承诺向本人提供与本报告有关的任何补偿或其它利益。 中银国际证券股份有限公司同时声明，将通过公司网站披露本公司授权公众媒体及其他机构刊载或者转发证券研究报 告有关情况。如有投资者于未经授权的公众媒体看到或从其他机构获得本研究报告的，请慎重使用所获得的研究报告， 以防止被误导，中银国际证券股份有限公司不对其报告理解和使用承担任何责任。 评级体系说明 以报告发布日后公司股价/行业指数涨跌幅相对同期相关市场指数的涨跌幅的表现为基准： 公司投资评级： 买 入：预计该公司股价在未来 6-12 个月内超越基准指数 20%以上； 增 持：预计该公司股价在未来 6-12 个月内超越基准指数 10%-20%； 中 性：预计该公司股价在未来 6-12 个月内相对基准指数变动幅度在-10%-10%之间； 减 持：预计该公司股价在未来 6-12 个月内相对基准指数跌幅在 10% ...

图表 1.2024 年 4 月 30 日政治局会议与 2023 年 12 月 12 日经济工作会主要内容对比 进一步推动经济回升向好需要克服一些困难和挑战，主要是有效 需求不足、部分行业产能过剩、社会预期偏弱、风险隐患仍然较 多，国内大循环存在堵点，外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定 性上升 坚持稳中求进工作总基调 坚持乘势而上，避免前紧后松 要靠前发力有效落实已经确定的宏观政策，实施好积极的 财政政策和稳健的货币政策 要做好宏观政策取向一致性评估，加强预期管理 要及早发行并用好超长期特别国债，加快专项债发行使用 进度，保持必要的财政支出强度，确保基层"三保"按时 足额支出。 稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效。保持流动性合理充裕， 社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹 配。发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能，盘活存量、提升 效能，引导金融机构加大对科技创新、绿色转型、普惠小微、数 字经济等方面的支持力度。促进社会综合融资成本稳中有降。保 持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 要靠前发力有效落实已经确定的宏观政策，实施好积极的 财政政策和稳健的货币政策。 要因地制宜发展新质生产力。 要 ...

Orders and Production - New orders decreased by 1.9 percentage points, with new export orders down by 0.7 percentage points and backlogged orders down by 2.0 percentage points[1] - Purchasing volume fell by 2.2 percentage points, while raw material imports decreased by 2.3 percentage points[1] - The production index rose by 0.7 percentage points to 52.9%, marking two consecutive months of increase[1] Price Trends - The purchasing price index increased by 3.5 percentage points to 54.0%, while the factory price index rose by 1.7 percentage points to 49.1%[1] - The proportion of companies reporting high raw material costs rose to 46.0%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points from the previous month[1] PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI index stood at 50.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from March, but still above the neutral line[1] - The new orders index was at 51.1%, down 1.9 percentage points from March, while the new export orders index fell to 50.6%[1] Employment and Inventory - The employment index decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 48.0%, indicating a slight contraction in workforce[1] - The finished goods inventory index dropped by 1.6 percentage points to 47.3%, suggesting a reduction in stock levels[1]

房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年4月30日 强于大市 房地产行业第 17 周周报（4 月 20 日-4 月 26 日） 二手房成交同比降幅显著小于新房；深圳推行 “以旧换新”、成都全面取消限购 新房成交面积环比由负转正，同比降幅缩小；二手房成交面积环比降幅缩小， 同比降幅扩大；土地市场环比量价齐升，溢价率同环比下降。 核心观点  新房成交面积环比由负转正，同比降幅缩小。40个城市新房成交面积为256.6万平方米，环比上升13.3%， 同比下降42.2%，同比降幅较上周收窄了3.4个百分点。一、二、三四线城市新房成交面积环比增速分 别为 31.3%、13.5%、-1.9%，同比增速分别为-32.6%、-46.3%、-45.5%，一、二线城市同比降幅较上周 分别收窄了8.9、2.3个百分点，三线城市同比降幅较上周扩大了1.4个百分点  二手房成交面积环比降幅缩小，同比降幅扩大。18个城市成交面积为203.7万平方米，环比下降2.6%， 相关研究报告 同比下降21.0%，同比降幅较上周扩大了8.1个百分点。一、二、三四线城市成交面积环比增速分别为 -6.8%、1.5%、-10.2%，同比增 ...

食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024年4月30日 600600.SH 青岛啤酒 买入 1Q24 量减价增，成本红利如期释放 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 79.31 青岛啤酒披露2024年一季报，1Q24实现营收101.5亿元，同比-5.2%，实现 板块评级:强于大市 归母/扣非归母净利润 16.0/15.1 亿元，同比+10.1%/+12.1%。高基数下公司 1Q24销量下滑，吨价增幅有所放缓。成本红利如期释放，销售费用率收缩， 归母净利率升幅较大, 建议积极布局。预计公司24-26年EPS为3.66、4.19、 股价表现 4.73元，同比+17.1%、+14.5%、+12.8%，维持买入评级。 1% 支撑评级的要点 (6%)  高基数下1Q24销量下滑，吨价增幅有所放缓。1Q24公司实现营收101.5亿元， (14%) 同比-5.2%，销量/吨价分别同比-7.6%/+2.6%至218.4万千升/4647元。销量下降幅 (22%) 度较大，我们判断主要系去年同期在疫情放开的高预期下，备货前置，形成了高 (30%) 基数所致（1Q23 销量同比+11.0%至 236 万千升，为近五年最高 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a previous rating also being "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong growth in 2023, achieving a revenue of 3.536 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.58%, and a net profit of 911 million RMB, up 25.17% [4][5] - The first quarter of 2024 continued to show robust performance, with revenue reaching 1.268 billion RMB, a 17.55% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 362 million RMB, up 20.43% [5] - The company's growth is supported by channel expansion and precise marketing strategies, particularly in the high-end sports market [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of 3.536 billion RMB, with a net profit of 911 million RMB, reflecting strong growth despite a weak domestic demand recovery [5][6] - The gross margin and net margin improved to 78.61% and 25.76% respectively in 2023, with further improvements in Q1 2024 to 76.03% and 28.55% [5][9] Growth Drivers - The company expanded its direct sales channels, generating 2.395 billion RMB in revenue, a 34.55% increase, while the franchise channel saw a slight decline [5] - Online sales grew by 16.08% to 195 million RMB, driven by increased advertising and targeted marketing efforts [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected EPS of 2.08, 2.47, and 2.93 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, and corresponding PE ratios of 14, 12, and 10 [6][8] - The strategic focus on product innovation and brand enhancement is anticipated to open up significant market opportunities [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 491 million in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.48%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 139 million, up 1.88% year-on-year [4] - The company is focusing on high-end manufacturing capabilities and has mastered core technologies in X-ray flat panel detectors [4] - A directed share issuance plan has been announced to raise up to RMB 1.45 billion for the construction of X-ray vacuum devices and comprehensive solutions [4] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1,864 million in 2023 to RMB 2,303 million in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 23.6% [5][7] - The net profit is expected to increase from RMB 607 million in 2023 to RMB 834 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 37.3% [5][7] - The projected EPS for 2024 is RMB 8.18, with corresponding P/E ratios of 25.3 for 2024, 20.4 for 2025, and 16.4 for 2026 [4][5][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a 31% year-on-year growth in 2023, with revenue reaching RMB 7.35 billion, a 56.10% increase, and a net profit of RMB 852 million, up 31.24% [4][5] - In Q1 2024, the company faced a net loss of RMB 29 million, a significant decrease of 108.57% year-on-year, primarily due to a 34.50% drop in revenue and a substantial increase in expense ratios [4][7] - The company's grid-connected inverter business showed stable performance, with a 42.99% increase in revenue to RMB 2.86 billion and a 15.46% rise in sales volume to 532,200 units in 2023 [4][6] - The energy storage inverter segment faced challenges due to inventory pressures, with sales volume down 32.20% to 154,100 units, leading to a revenue decline of 4.67% to RMB 1.57 billion [4][6] - The company is actively expanding its battery pack sales, achieving a 27.74% increase in sales volume to 341.15 MWh and a 38.66% rise in revenue to RMB 869 million in 2023 [4][6] - The report anticipates that the demand for energy storage inverters will improve in 2024 as inventory levels in Europe decrease [4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 2023 revenue was RMB 7.35 billion, a 56.10% increase from 2022, with a net profit of RMB 852 million, up 31.24% [5][6] - Q1 2024 revenue was RMB 1.13 billion, down 34.50% year-on-year, with a net loss of RMB 29 million [7][9] Business Segments - Grid-connected inverter revenue increased by 42.99% to RMB 2.86 billion in 2023, with a stable gross margin of 29.43% [4][6] - Energy storage inverter sales decreased by 32.20% to 154,100 units, with revenue down 4.67% to RMB 1.57 billion due to inventory issues [4][6] Future Outlook - The company expects gradual recovery in demand for energy storage inverters in 2024, supported by inventory reduction in Europe and new product launches [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that despite a 15.26% decline in total revenue to RMB 4.305 billion in 2023, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 5.78% to RMB 763 million. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 3 per 10 shares (including tax) [3][4]. - The report maintains a "Buy" rating, driven by the anticipated growth from the production of various new materials [3]. Financial Performance Summary - **2023 Financials**: - Total revenue decreased by 15.26% to RMB 4.305 billion. - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 5.78% to RMB 763 million. - The company’s gross margin improved by 2.75 percentage points to 42.49% [3][4]. - **Q4 2023 Performance**: - Revenue for Q4 was RMB 1.130 billion, down 8.64% year-on-year but up 2.51% quarter-on-quarter. - The gross margin for Q4 was 41.57%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points year-on-year [4][22]. - **Q1 2024 Performance**: - Revenue for Q1 2024 was RMB 938 million, a decline of 9.19% year-on-year. - Net profit for Q1 2024 was RMB 98 million, down 44.32% year-on-year [3][22]. Business Segment Analysis - **Functional Materials**: - Revenue from functional materials increased by 12.25% to RMB 3.366 billion in 2023, with a gross margin of 43.91% [3]. - **Life Sciences and Pharmaceuticals**: - Revenue decreased by 56.67% to RMB 882 million, with a gross margin of 36.22% [3]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the growth potential from new materials and projects, particularly in the OLED materials sector, where production capacity is expected to expand significantly [3][4]. - The company has initiated several projects, including a new technology research center and production base for OLED materials, with significant investments planned [3]. Valuation - The report adjusts the earnings forecast for 2024-2026, projecting EPS of RMB 0.83, RMB 0.97, and RMB 1.14 for the respective years, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.1x, 12.0x, and 10.2x [3][6].