证券研究报告 宏观经济|宏观点评 加关税或无法降低美国总贸易赤字 ——美国大选点评 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月09日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 根据美联社的统计，特朗普赢得了今年的美国大选。他上台或对内减税，对外加关税。我们认 为今年美联储可能继续小幅降息，美国目前的经济基本面仍支持美联储渐进性的降息。特朗 普胜选短期或利好各类风险资产，市场风险偏好上行，"动物精神"回归。胜选后美国国债利 率上行，美国三大股指收盘上涨。但特朗普政策中期或让美国财政可持续性进一步恶化。加征 关税可能降低美国经济增速，推高进口商品价格。而在现行的全球货币牙买加体系下，美元仍 然扮演了国际货币的角色，加关税或无法降低美国总贸易赤字。 |分析师及联系人 王博群 方诗超 SAC：S0590524010002 SAC：S0590523030001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 16 宏观经济|宏观点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月09日 宏观点评 加关税或无法降低美国总贸易赤字 ——美国大选点评 相关报告 1、《"抢出口"因素或支撑短期出口——对 10 月外贸数据的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the telecommunications industry [4]. Core Insights - The GSE technology, developed by China Mobile and partners, integrates high-performance computing needs into Ethernet, facilitating the rapid development of AIGC (Artificial Intelligence Generated Content) and other high-performance applications. The GSE1.0 technology has been commercially deployed in over 10,000 computing centers, reducing communication time during training processes by over 20%, achieving international leading levels [2][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. GSE Technology Facilitates Rapid Development of AIGC - The GSE technology addresses the high-performance and low-latency communication requirements essential for distributed parallel computing in AI model training. It is designed to support the construction of large-scale intelligent computing centers and the deployment of AI large models [10][11]. 1.1 Emergence of GSE Technology - GSE technology is not a complete overhaul of Ethernet but rather incorporates high-performance computing demands into the existing Ethernet framework, maximizing the reuse of Ethernet's physical layer and ensuring compatibility with the Ethernet ecosystem [11][12]. 1.2 Maturation of the GSE Ecosystem - The GSE ecosystem has matured, with China Mobile planning to invest over 1 billion in developing a 51.2T switching chip suitable for various computing scenarios. The GSE technology standards and the first commercial GSE products were launched during the China Computing Conference, marking a significant milestone [7][14]. 1.3 Ruijie Networks Wins GSE First Bid - Ruijie Networks has been awarded the first GSE project by China Mobile, successfully completing the first commercial GSE network pilot verification. The pilot network achieved over 95% utilization and improved performance by over 50% in LLaMA2-13B model tests [15][16]. 2. Investment Recommendations: Focus on GSE Industry Chain Opportunities - The report emphasizes the investment opportunities within the GSE industry chain, recommending attention to companies such as Ruijie Networks, Unisoc, ZTE, and China Mobile, as AI development continues to drive demand for computing power [16].

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|食品饮料 2024Q3 大众品需求承压，原材料红利 释放 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月09日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024Q3 大众品需求依旧疲软，餐饮表现环比 2024Q2 进一步承压。原材料成本红利延续，大众 品重点企业利润表现优于收入：2024Q1-3 大众品企业实现收入 2417.19 亿元，同比-3.25%， 归母净利润为 245.68 亿元，同比+10.88%。2024Q3 大众品重点公司实现收入 781.99 亿元，同 比-3.93%，归母净利润 70.25 亿元，同比-0.51%。展望后市，随着"一揽子"消费刺激政策逐 步落地、传导，叠加核心资产止跌企稳+居民收入及消费预期企稳甚至进一步改善，我们看好 需求端的修复逻辑，大众餐饮等场景修复带来的大众品企业经营端改善。 |分析师及联系人 刘景瑜 邓洁 SAC：S0590524030005 SAC：S0590524040002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1/26 行业研究|行业专题研究 | --- | --- | |-------------------- ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|银行 化债方案落地金融机构资产质量有望改 善 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月08日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 一方面，此次债务置换直接利好金融机构资产质量改善，有助于支撑金融机构估值修复。另一 方面，2023 年末 G20 国家平均政府负债率 118.2%，同期我国政府负债率仅有 67.5%，此次置 换后我国政府依旧还有较大的举债空间。整体来看，此次化债有助于金融机构估值修复，同时 后续财政政策将有望保持较高的政策力度，后续或仍有大量增量政策落地，我们看好稳增长 背景下金融股的表现。 |分析师及联系人 刘雨辰 陈昌涛 SAC：S0590522100001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 行业研究|行业点评研究 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|轻工制造 收储加速以旧换新扩容，关注家居龙头 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月10日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 11 月 8 日，全国人大常委会办公厅召开新闻发布会，宣布将直接增加地方化债资源 10 万亿元，明确各项地产政策正加速落地，并将实施更加给力的财政政策。地产政策的加快 推进,体现了中央层面推动房地产市场止跌回稳的坚定态度。与此同时，官方表示明年将实施 更加给力的财政政策，如扩大以旧换新的品种和规模，有望对家居消费需求形成实质性拉动。 |分析师及联系人 管泉森 孙珊 戚志圣 SAC：S0590523100007 SAC：S0590523110003 SAC：S0590523120002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 行业研究|行业点评研究 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|汽车 特斯拉成首批数据合规企业，有望迎价 值重估 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月09日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 11 月 8 日，中国汽车工业协会等部门发布通报确认特斯拉成为首批符合汽车数据安 全合规要求的企业之一，特斯拉得到国家权威机构认证，有望助力特斯拉 FSD 进入国内市场。 目前 FSD 加速迭代，FSD V13.3 版本有望于 2024 年 11 月底推送，或进一步提升用户使用体 验，特斯拉估值有望重塑。同时，公司工厂产能有望持续扩容，预计明年下半年随着特斯拉新 产能的投产和新产品投放，公司有望进入新的快速增长期，特斯拉相关产业链也有望迎来新 的发展机遇。 |分析师及联系人 高登 陈斯竹 喻虎 SAC：S0590523110004 SAC：S0590523100009 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 行业研究|行业点评研究 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company held its 2024 Investor Open Day on November 8, 2024, focusing on "High-Quality Development of New Energy Vehicle Insurance" and introduced innovative measures in auto insurance management and achievements in new energy vehicle insurance [2][6] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, making new energy vehicle insurance a key focus for future auto insurance reforms [6] - The company is committed to advancing the transformation and upgrading of new energy vehicle insurance, with expectations for improvement in the combined operating ratio (COR) for new energy vehicle insurance [7][8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is classified under the non-bank financial/insurance sector [4] - Current stock price is HKD 12.52, with a total market capitalization of HKD 86,379.16 million [4] Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2023, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China increased from 1.11 million to 7.75 million, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 91%, significantly higher than the overall growth of traditional passenger vehicles at 4% [6] - The number of new energy vehicles in circulation rose from 4.92 million to 20.41 million, with their share of total vehicle ownership increasing from 1.8% to 6.1% [6] - As of the first half of 2024, the share of new energy vehicles in total vehicle ownership reached 7.2% [6] Market Position - The company's market share in new energy commercial vehicle insurance reached 35.45% in the first nine months of 2024, an increase of 1.49 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company has served over 22 million new energy vehicle customers [7] Future Outlook - The company aims to create a new business model that covers the entire lifecycle of vehicle insurance and all customer service scenarios, enhancing risk management and service capabilities [7] - The projected net profit for the company from 2024 to 2026 is expected to be HKD 33.87 billion, HKD 35.73 billion, and HKD 39.80 billion, with growth rates of 38%, 6%, and 11% respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 764 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 149 million yuan, up 61.2% year-on-year [6][7] - The significant increase in gross margin may indicate a change in revenue structure, with higher contributions from higher-margin businesses [6][7] - The company has secured a major sales contract worth 316 million yuan for ammunition, which is expected to ensure revenue stability for the year [6][7] - The solid rocket engine is identified as a bottleneck in the missile industry chain, and if demand recovers, the company's position in the industry chain may improve [6][7] - The market space is broad, and profit is expected to grow steadily, leading to the maintenance of the "Buy" rating [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.296 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 24.55% [7] - The net profit is expected to reach 193 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.84% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.10 yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 54x [7] Market Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.19% for revenue and 34.46% for net profit over the next three years [6][7] - The gross margin is projected to improve, indicating a favorable shift in the product mix towards higher-margin offerings [6][7] Industry Position - The company is positioned as a core supplier of solid rocket engines, which are critical in the missile supply chain, potentially benefiting from supply-demand imbalances [6][7] - The defense industry is expected to see increased demand, which may enhance the company's market position [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Weichai Power (000338) is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - In Q3 2024, Weichai Power reported a revenue of 161.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.2% [2][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 49.46 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decline of 8.8% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 11.8%, with a net profit of 2.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 24.4% [2][6] - The non-net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.23 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 10% [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, Weichai Power's revenue was 1619.5 billion yuan, with a net profit of 84.0 billion yuan [2][6] - In Q3 2024, the company’s gross margin was 22.1%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] - The sales profit margin for Q3 was 7.4%, which is a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points [6] Market Conditions - The heavy truck industry faced pressure with sales of 178,000 units in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decline of 18.2% [6] - Weichai Power outperformed the industry due to its diversified product offerings, particularly benefiting from non-road applications and large-bore engines [6] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in the industry supported by policy incentives such as trade-in programs [6] - The revenue targets for 2024-2026 are set at 210.2 billion, 231.2 billion, and 258.9 billion yuan, with corresponding net profit targets of 11.23 billion, 13.91 billion, and 15.61 billion yuan [6] - The company aims to achieve a sales profit margin of 8% in 2024, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.1% over the next three years [6]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment sector, specifically focusing on the precision structural components segment within the lithium battery industry [3] Core Views - Precision structural components are critical parts of lithium batteries, with demand expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.9% over the next three years [2] - The structural components segment is characterized by high barriers to entry in terms of technology, customer relationships, and capital, leading to a stable industry structure dominated by a few key players [2][4] - The industry is expected to maintain a "one superpower, multiple strong players"格局, with leading companies likely to strengthen their competitive advantages [2][4] Market Demand and Growth - The global market size for structural components (including aluminum-plastic film) is projected to reach 514/611/690 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026, with a CAGR of 17.9% [4] - Square batteries dominate the domestic power battery market, accounting for over 90% of the market share in 2024 [3] - The demand for structural components is driven by the growth in power and energy storage batteries, with global energy storage battery installations expected to reach 149/194/220 GWh in 2024/2025/2026 [44][47] Industry Structure and Competitive Landscape - The structural components industry has evolved through three stages: initial development (pre-2005), domestic rise (2006-2018), and the current "one superpower, multiple strong players"格局 [3] - In 2023, the top five global manufacturers held approximately 63% of the market share, with Kedali leading the market [3] - The industry is characterized by high technical and capital barriers, making it difficult for new entrants to compete [2][4] Technological Trends and Innovations - The development of 46-series cylindrical batteries and fast-charging technologies is expected to drive innovation in structural components, potentially increasing their value [57][62] - Solid-state batteries, while evolving in terms of electrolytes and separators, are expected to maintain the demand for structural components as they still require casings [53][54] - Fast-charging technologies, such as 4C/5C/6C batteries, are becoming a key focus for battery manufacturers, which could lead to higher value-added structural components [64][65] Company Focus: Kedali - Kedali, a leading player in the precision structural components industry, has over 20 years of experience and deep customer relationships [5] - The company is expected to maintain robust profitability through scale advantages and cost control measures, with projected revenues of 12.346/14.846/17.822 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026 [3] - Kedali's overseas expansion is expected to contribute to future earnings growth [5] Market Segmentation and Applications - Structural components are used in various battery types, including square, cylindrical, and pouch batteries, with square batteries being the mainstream in the power and energy storage markets [15][18] - The demand for structural components is driven by applications in electric vehicles, energy storage, and consumer electronics [16][18] Raw Material and Production Requirements - Precision structural components require high-precision materials, with strict standards for aluminum used in battery casings and covers [73][74] - The production process for structural components involves complex manufacturing techniques, particularly for battery covers, which require multiple materials and processes [20][23]