证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|社会服务 增加法定假日，假日经济有望激发消费 潜力 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月13日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2023 至今，文旅市场延续景气，且政策对文旅行业的支持力度明显上行。2024 年 11 月，国 务院办公厅发布关于修改《全国年节及纪念日放假办法》的决定及 2025 年部分节假日安排， 增加全体公民放假假日 2 天，并强调合理安排统一放假调休，结合落实带薪年休假等制度， 实际形成较长假期。我们认为，法定节假日的增加是旅游全产业链的重大利好，有望持续激活 "假日经济"，发挥行业"一业兴、百业旺"的强大带动作用。建议关注餐饮住宿龙头、旅游 服务龙头及景区优质标的。 |分析师及联系人 邓文慧 曹晶 SAC：S0590522060001 SAC：S0590523080001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 行业研究|行业点评研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月13日 社会服务 增加法定假日，假日经济有望激发消费潜力 行业事件 上次建议： 强于大市 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 相对大盘走势 -40 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (first coverage) [4][11]. Core Views - The company leverages the resource advantages of "Xixia mushrooms" to pioneer the mushroom sauce category, which has become a classic product with a market share of 53% by volume in 2023. Additionally, the company has actively introduced new products, with the Shanghai scallion oil rapidly gaining traction in e-commerce channels, achieving a market share of 70.1% by volume in 2023, thus opening up future growth potential [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Founded in 2002, the company initially focused on seasoning ingredients and later created the mushroom sauce in 2008, which has become a flagship product. The Shanghai scallion oil was launched in 2021 and has seen significant growth in e-commerce channels, contributing to the company's main business [6][16]. 2. Product Performance - The mushroom sauce has shown steady growth, with sales revenue increasing from 205 million yuan in 2016 to 324 million yuan in 2022, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 5%. The company is expected to maintain this growth trajectory due to its resource advantages and production technologies [7][34]. - The Shanghai scallion oil, launched in 2021, has become the second growth curve for the company, benefiting from urbanization and a favorable competitive landscape, with expectations for continued high double-digit growth [8][34]. 3. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 1.128 billion yuan, 1.272 billion yuan, and 1.416 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.45%, 12.78%, and 11.29%, respectively. Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 189 million yuan, 219 million yuan, and 252 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 9.52%, 15.81%, and 15.10% [8][11]. 4. Market Position - The company has established a strong market position with its mushroom sauce and scallion oil products, which are well-received in the market. The mushroom sauce is particularly dominant in the central and eastern regions of China, while the scallion oil has rapidly gained popularity through e-commerce platforms [29][36]. 5. Growth Drivers - The company's growth is driven by its innovative product development and effective channel expansion strategies. The online sales channel has become increasingly important, with e-commerce accounting for a significant portion of the revenue for the scallion oil product [21][29].

Key Points Company Overview - **Industry**: Industrial e-commerce, industrial big data, and industrial digitalization - **Business Segments**: - Commercial Information Service Platform (e.g., Guolian Resource Network) - Industrial E-commerce Platform (e.g., Duoduo platform) - Digital Technology Service Platform (e.g., Guolian Cloud) - **Mission**: Promote cost reduction and efficiency in traditional manufacturing through the integration of internet, big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence [2]. Business Model - **Industrial E-commerce**: - Self-operated e-commerce (e.g., Duoduo platform) - Third-party e-commerce (suppliers opening stores on Duoduo platform) - SaaS services (e.g., cloud ERP, online payment, smart logistics) [2]. - **Commercial Information Service**: - Online supply and demand information, marketing promotion services, industry information and data products, and industry advertising services [2]. - **Digital Technology Service**: - Research and development of Guolian voice digital technology system and big data service system, focusing on internal digital management system improvement, industrial internet solutions, and vertical industry-based big data service system development [2]. Strategic Planning - **Core Strategy**: Platform service, technology-driven, and data-supported - **Platform Service**: - Deepening in multiple segmented fields, building vertical industrial internet platforms, and enriching platform value [3]. - **Technology-Driven**: - Promoting industrial digitalization through digital cloud factories, establishing closer relationships with upstream and downstream enterprises, and providing digital solutions [4]. - **Data-supported**: - Accumulating rich data elements in B2B fields, exploring more suitable digital products to help enterprises achieve digital transformation and upgrading [4]. Growth Curves - **Low Growth Curve**: Focusing on building industrial e-commerce platforms in vertical fields, expanding transaction scale, and consolidating industry status [4]. - **Second Growth Curve**: Enhancing digital service system construction and promotion, including digital cloud factories, digital supply chains, industrial internet, industrial metaverse, and industrial large models [4]. - **Third Growth Curve**: Building industrial belt cross-border e-commerce platforms, reconstructing supply chain systems through cross-border transaction digitalization, and promoting the development of the Belt and Road Initiative [4]. Q3 2024 Financial Performance - **Revenue**: 172.6 billion yuan, up 26.62% year-on-year - **Net Profit**: 4.07 billion yuan, up 12.38% year-on-year - **Non-Operating Net Profit**: 4 billion yuan, up 8.35% year-on-year - **Total Assets**: 159.23 billion yuan, up 4.05% year-on-year - **Overall Performance**: Revenue of 470.02 billion yuan, up 26.13% year-on-year; Net Profit of 11.2 billion yuan, up 11.41% year-on-year; Non-Operating Net Profit of 10.09 billion yuan, up 7.84% year-on-year [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Chuan Yi Co., Ltd. (川仪股份) [5][15][223] Core Insights - Chuan Yi Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leading player in the domestic industrial automation instrument sector, with the potential to become the "Chinese Emerson" due to multiple competitive advantages [2][9][15]. - The industrial automation market in China is expected to reach approximately 350 billion yuan in 2024, with the automation instrument market (including control valves and instruments) projected at around 85 billion yuan [2][13][68]. - The company has successfully replaced second-tier foreign brands and is now targeting first-tier foreign brands like Emerson [9][15][122]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Chuan Yi Co., Ltd. has a history of over 60 years in the industrial automation instrument field, evolving into the largest and most comprehensive domestic player in this sector [29][30]. - The company has shown robust growth, with revenue increasing from 3.13 billion yuan in 2017 to 7.41 billion yuan in 2023, representing a CAGR of approximately 15% [9][51]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a recovery in the capital expenditure of the petrochemical industry, which is expected to drive demand for automation instruments [9][51]. - The company benefits from favorable policies aimed at economic stabilization, which are likely to enhance demand in the basic chemical industry [9][100]. Competitive Landscape - Chuan Yi Co., Ltd. has achieved significant market share in various product categories, including being the second-largest in control valves with a market share of approximately 6.5% [9][115]. - The company is positioned to capture a larger share of the high-end market, traditionally dominated by foreign brands [9][122]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 7.75 billion, 8.51 billion, and 9.74 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of approximately 5%, 10%, and 14% [15][208]. - The net profit for the same period is projected to be 770 million, 880 million, and 1.03 billion yuan, with growth rates of 4%, 14%, and 18% [15][208]. Investment Valuation - The report estimates a target price of 27.3 yuan per share based on a relative valuation method, applying a PE ratio of 16 times for 2025 [15][223]. - The DCF model suggests a current value of approximately 12.3 billion yuan, translating to a per-share value of 23.9 yuan [15][213][218].

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The leading companies in the US automotive aftermarket have demonstrated decades of stable growth and cyclical resilience. AutoZone has achieved a revenue CAGR of approximately 5.99% and a net profit CAGR of about 8.25% over the past 20 years, with no significant decline in performance during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. O'Reilly has seen its stock price increase over 43 times in the past 20 years, driven by steady same-store sales growth and improved profitability, with gross margins rising from 2.22% to 51.26% and net margins from 6.62% to 14.84% from 2003 to 2023. The fragmented but expansive Chinese automotive aftermarket presents opportunities for competitive companies to grow steadily, with a recommendation for the domestic O2O automotive service leader, Tuhu [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. AutoZone - Business Model: Positioned as a community auto parts superstore primarily for DIY users, AutoZone has become the largest automotive repair chain in the US with 6,300 stores as of FY2023. The company has expanded into the DIFM market since 2007, with a CAGR of 12.16% in DIFM revenue from FY2013 to FY2023 [13][15]. - Core Advantages: AutoZone has a high operating efficiency, with a 2023 ROIC of 85.7%, outperforming O'Reilly and Advance Auto Parts. The company has optimized its expense ratios, reducing operating, selling, general, and administrative expenses from 37.1% in FY2018 to 32.1% in FY2023 [20][21]. - Stock Performance: AutoZone's revenue CAGR from 2003 to 2023 is approximately 5.99%, with net profit CAGR at 8.25%. The company has maintained a gross margin above 50% since 2008, and its stock price has increased over 40 times since 2003 due to continuous buybacks [24][28]. 2. O'Reilly - Business Model: O'Reilly has established a dual market strategy focusing on both DIY and DIFM customers, allowing for a larger consumer base and efficient use of distribution and store resources. The company has seen strong same-store sales growth, outperforming its competitors [7][10]. - Financial Performance: O'Reilly's stock price has increased over 44 times since 2003, supported by improved cash flow and stock buybacks. The company's PE ratio has averaged around 22X since 2006, higher than AutoZone's 16X [7][10]. 3. Advance Auto Parts - Business Model: Advance Auto Parts operates three brands catering to different customer segments, with a focus on both DIY and DIFM. However, the company has faced profitability pressures due to high operating costs [8][10]. - Financial Performance: The company's gross margin has declined from 45.24% in 2014 to 40.07% in 2023, with net margins dropping from 6.03% in 2013 to 0.26% in 2023. The company has sold Worldpac to reduce costs [8][10]. 4. NAPA - Business Model: NAPA focuses on DIFM customers and offers a wide range of automotive parts and services, covering nearly all vehicle types. The company serves a diverse clientele, including repair shops and commercial fleets [9][10]. - Market Position: NAPA's DIFM customer base accounts for 80% of its business, which is higher than its competitors [9][10]. 5. Tuhu's Growth Potential - Tuhu has significant growth opportunities in self-owned brands and product categories, with its self-owned product sales ratio at only 26% in 2023, compared to over 50% for its US counterparts. The company primarily offers tires and engine oil, indicating substantial room for product expansion [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for home appliances is expected to rebound, driven by government policies and a favorable economic environment, particularly in the kitchen and white goods segments [3][4] - The report highlights the positive impact of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy, which is comparable to the previous "home appliance to the countryside" initiative, leading to increased retail sales growth since September [3] - The report recommends key players such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric Appliances, and Hisense Home Appliances due to their strong export orders and solid financial performance [3] Summary by Sections November Investment Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the upward trend in demand and the elasticity of domestic sales, particularly in the white goods sector, supported by government policies [3] - The report notes that the home appliance index increased by 5.98% in October, outperforming the broader market indices [10] October Market Review - The home appliance index showed a significant recovery, with a notable increase in retail sales for air conditioners and other major appliances [10][24] - The report indicates that the overall market sentiment is improving, with a focus on structural upgrades and increased average selling prices [3] Key Data Tracking - The report provides detailed financial performance data for major companies in the sector, highlighting revenue growth and profit margins [7] - For instance, Midea Group reported a revenue of 318.97 billion with a growth rate of 9.6%, while Haier Smart Home's revenue was 202.97 billion with a growth rate of 2.2% [7] Investment Recommendations & Core Reports - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the kitchen and small appliance segments, such as Roborock Technology and Ecovacs, which are expected to benefit from new product launches and market expansion [4] - The report also highlights the potential for growth in the home appliance sector due to favorable macroeconomic policies and consumer demand recovery [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [4][10]. Core Views - Geely Automobile is actively transforming into the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, with three major brands targeting different market segments. The company is transitioning from a technology investment phase to a product output phase, with a robust new car launch plan that includes nine key NEV models across various price ranges [8][14]. - The report forecasts significant sales growth for Geely, projecting total sales of 2.143 million and 2.782 million vehicles for 2024 and 2025, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 30.0% and 29.8% [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction: Sales Potential from New Car Plans - Geely's three brands—Galaxy, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr—are positioned for the NEV market, focusing on cost-effectiveness, personalization, and high-end smart electric vehicles [14]. - The company aims to cover a wide price range with new models, enhancing its market presence [14]. 2. New Car Plans Progressing Smoothly 2.1 Galaxy Brand: Expanding Market Coverage - The Galaxy E5 and Star Wish models have been launched, targeting the A-class SUV and A0-class sedan markets, with competitive pricing [6][29]. - The Galaxy E5 achieved sales of 12,230 units in its first month, indicating strong market acceptance [6][21]. 2.2 Zeekr Brand: Accelerating Model Matrix Expansion - Zeekr has increased its new car release cadence, with models like Zeekr 009 and Zeekr X contributing to a sales increase from 72,000 units in 2022 to 119,000 units in 2023, a growth of 65.0% [6][10]. - Future models like Zeekr 7X and Zeekr MIX are expected to further enhance sales [6]. 2.3 Lynk & Co Brand: Transitioning to NEV - Lynk & Co has launched its first native NEV architecture, with significant sales growth in 2023 and 2024 [6][10]. - The brand's NEV sales reached 96,000 units in the first eight months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 449.6% [6][10]. 3. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report projects total sales for Geely from 2024 to 2026 to be 2.143 million, 2.782 million, and 3.280 million vehicles, with corresponding revenues of 239.03 billion, 325.52 billion, and 395.69 billion yuan [10]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are 1.63, 1.26, and 1.64 yuan, with a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45.8% [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the pet and feed sectors, highlighting the growth potential in the domestic pet industry and the recovery in aquaculture feed demand [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Livestock - The pig farming sector shows improved profitability, with a revenue increase of 3.20% year-on-year and an 18.01% quarter-on-quarter rise in Q3 2024, totaling 1265.16 billion yuan [6][14]. - The average price of pigs in Q3 2024 was 19.43 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.80% [15]. - The total net profit for 15 listed pig companies reached 188.41 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a significant increase compared to previous periods [15][19]. 2. Pet Industry - Pet food companies reported a total revenue of 81.83 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 21.39% [7]. - The net profit for pet food companies reached 9.07 billion yuan, a 96.38% increase year-on-year, driven by robust domestic and international business growth [7][8]. 3. Feed Industry - The total revenue for major feed companies declined by 4.44% year-on-year to 1149.50 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [8]. - Despite the revenue decline, the net profit for these companies increased by 65.90% to 38.88 billion yuan, with notable performance from Hai Da Group and others [8][9]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following: - For the consumption growth category, it suggests investing in Hai Da Group for aquaculture and in companies like Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Rui Pu Bio for the pet sector [2][9]. - In the cyclical recovery category, it highlights potential in pig farming with recommendations for companies like Mu Yuan, Wen's, Li Hua, and He Feng [2][9].

Investment Rating - The investment recommendation for the renovation and building materials industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that most of the 25 listed companies in the renovation and building materials sector are experiencing pressure on revenue and net profit growth, reflecting a continued bottoming out of demand. However, companies like Beixin Building Materials and Rabbit Baby have shown relatively good growth in both revenue and net profit [2][5]. - Overall, the industry is facing challenges due to weak real estate sales, leading to increased competition and pressure on demand. Some consumer-oriented companies have demonstrated resilience in revenue and profit growth [5][16]. - The report indicates a significant divergence in operational quality among companies, with some benefiting from product structure optimization and cost reduction measures [5][19]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In Q3 2024, the sample companies reported total revenue of 38.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, with a median growth rate of -15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.3 billion yuan, down 42% year-on-year, with a median growth rate of -48% [5][10]. - The overall gross margin for the sample companies in Q3 2024 was 27.5%, down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.0%, down 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [10][19]. Segment Analysis - **Operational Scale**: Most companies are experiencing a decline in scale, but consumer-oriented companies show resilience. For instance, Beixin Building Materials and Rabbit Baby have continued to grow in revenue and net profit [5][16]. - **Profitability**: Many companies are facing pressure on gross margins, with only a few, such as Keshun Co., Rabbit Baby, and Haixiang New Materials, showing improvements due to product structure optimization and cost reduction [19][23]. - **Asset Turnover**: The sample companies have maintained strict management of accounts receivable, but the turnover days have increased, indicating pressure on cash flow [13][14]. - **Cash Flow**: The median cash collection ratio for the sample companies has decreased, reflecting a significant divergence in performance among the companies [13][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that demand may stabilize, and it is important to monitor the progress of quality improvement and transformation among companies. It emphasizes focusing on companies with stronger consumer characteristics and those that have adjusted their client structures effectively [5][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pesticide industry [1]. Core Insights - The pesticide industry is essential for global food security, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.9% from 2017 to 2022, driven by population growth [2]. - Supply growth is limited, with a significant expansion of pesticide raw material capacity in China's central and western regions since 2021, totaling about 670,000 tons. However, production levels are expected to remain below those of 2013-2014, indicating limited oversupply and potential for a recovery similar to the high demand conditions of 2013 [2]. - Insecticides are expected to lead the recovery in industry conditions, with exports improving significantly in 2024. The export value of insecticides in Q3 2024 exceeded that of Q3 2022, with a quarterly average growth rate of 9.5% from Q1 2023 to Q3 2024 [2][9]. - The expansion of insecticide production capacity has been relatively modest, particularly for carbamate insecticides, with limited competition from India, suggesting a favorable supply landscape for this segment [2]. - The report recommends focusing on pesticide companies with a high proportion of insecticides and specifically highlights opportunities in carbamate insecticide producers [2][33]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pesticide market is a necessity, with demand closely tied to population growth and limited supply-side expansion [2][5]. - The global pesticide market size was approximately $61.6 billion in 2022, with a projected CAGR of over 4% [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The production of chemical pesticide raw materials in China has seen a decline, with 2022 output at about two-thirds of 2013 levels. The number of pesticide companies has also decreased significantly due to supply-side reforms [7][8]. - The expected raw material production for 2023-2026 is projected to be 267, 287, 314, and 327 million tons respectively, indicating a gradual recovery but still below peak levels [7]. Export Performance - The export statistics for pesticide formulations show a significant increase, with a notable rise in insecticide exports compared to herbicides, which remain below previous levels [9][11]. - The report highlights that the insecticide segment is recovering faster than other pesticide categories, with a strong export performance expected to continue [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investors pay attention to the improving conditions in the pesticide industry and specifically to companies with a strong focus on insecticides, particularly carbamate insecticides [33].