[Table_Main] 新材料：凛冬已过春不远 报告要点 2024H1 行业整体业绩延续下降趋势，Q2 业绩环比显著改善，行业经营或已 触底回升，而行业 PE 处于历史低位，可静待花开。 H1 新材料行业营收和归母净利继续下降。2024H1，行业营收同比下降 6.6%， 归母净利同比下降 18.5%，平均毛利率同比保持不变。2024H1，新材料行业 平均 PE 为 37，处于历史的 28%分位。 Q2 新材料行业营收、归母净利环比显著上升。2024Q2，行业营收环比上升 18.5%，同比下降 0.5%；归母净利环比上升 44.2%，同比下降 2.1%；平均毛 利率为环比下降 0.1 个百分点，同比上升 0.5 个百分点。 2024Q2 和 H1 能源汽车结构材料（铝合金、镁合金）行业营收增长最快，股 价涨幅也居前。近年来轻量化合金行业（铝合金、镁合金）受到国家产业政策 的鼓励和支持，汽车轻量化零部件和结构件需求旺盛，行业内公司积极开拓 市场、创新技术、扩大应用，产量增长是收入增长的主要因素。 2024Q2 和 H1 粉体材料及 3D 打印行业盈利表现亮眼。下游半导体和消费电 子行业需求回暖、受 AI 浪潮催 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the high-end manufacturing industry, particularly in sectors like shipbuilding and engineering machinery, which continue to benefit from equipment upgrades [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the export chain as a key direction for future manufacturing, noting that while there is some divergence in performance, the underlying value of export chain companies remains significant [11][12]. - It highlights the opportunities for mining equipment companies due to energy transition, declining ore grades, and overseas expansion, with a notable increase in export value [11][57]. - The report also points out the potential for platform companies to leverage synergies across product lines to navigate economic cycles effectively [11]. Summary by Sections Section: Export Chain Value - The report discusses the recent decline in overseas revenue growth for engineering machinery and forklifts, attributing it to high base effects and trade tensions, but remains optimistic about the export chain's inherent value [11]. - It notes that the Belt and Road Initiative continues to drive strong demand in certain regions [11]. Section: Mining Equipment Opportunities - Mining machinery exports reached $2.898 billion from January to July 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [11][57]. - Major global mining equipment companies reported stable new orders, although some experienced declines in equipment orders [11][57]. Section: Engineering Machinery Performance - In July, engineering machinery exports amounted to $4.39 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [48]. - Excavator sales reached 13,700 units, with domestic sales up by 21.9% and overseas sales slightly down by 0.5% [48]. Section: Forklift Market Insights - Forklift sales in July totaled 103,700 units, with exports increasing by 21.7% [44]. - The report highlights mixed performance among major forklift manufacturers, with some experiencing declines in orders [44]. Section: Industrial Data Tracking - The report tracks various industrial metrics, noting a 4% increase in industrial enterprise profit growth in China for the first seven months of 2024 [21]. - It also mentions a 3.7% increase in inventory growth, indicating a stable industrial environment [21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of port duty-free sales and the implementation of new policies for city duty-free shops, despite facing challenges in its Hainan operations [7] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 was 31.265 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.81% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.283 billion yuan, down 15.07% year-on-year [1][2] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected net profits of 6.2 billion yuan, 7.2 billion yuan, and 8.6 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to ongoing pressures in the Hainan duty-free business [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company's revenue from Hainan and Shanghai was 16.785 billion yuan and 8.5 billion yuan respectively, with Hainan's revenue down 28.97% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 33.87%, an increase of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.83%, a decrease of 2.54 percentage points year-on-year [3] Market Opportunities - The new city duty-free shop policies are expected to enhance the company's growth prospects, with several cities set to establish new duty-free shops [4] - The company is focusing on improving service offerings to capitalize on the anticipated growth in the duty-free market [4] Profitability Outlook - The company has seen improvements in gross profit margins due to a higher proportion of mid-to-high-end product sales, although overall sales performance has pressured net profit margins [3] - The projected earnings per share for 2024 is 2.985 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.44 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, with a rating of "看好" (positive) as of September 5, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The monthly bidding volume for molybdenum iron from domestic steel mills reached a record high of 14,600 tons in August 2024, indicating strong downstream demand despite the season being relatively slow [1][3]. - The total bidding volume for the first eight months of 2024 was 98,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19% [1][3]. - The demand in the shipbuilding, chemical, and wind power sectors remains robust, supporting the overall growth in the manufacturing industry [5]. - Molybdenum is primarily used in alloy steel, stainless steel, tool steel, and cast iron, making it a crucial additive for manufacturing upgrades [1][5]. - The price of molybdenum concentrate remains high, with a price of 3,680 yuan per ton as of August 30, 2024, which is 66% of the 2023 peak price of 5,600 yuan per ton, indicating significant price elasticity [10]. Summary by Sections Steel Bidding Volume - In August 2024, the domestic steel mills' bidding volume for molybdenum iron reached 14,600 tons, a new high for the year [1][3]. - The total bidding volume from January to August 2024 was 98,000 tons, up 19% year-on-year [1][3]. Manufacturing Demand - The demand in high-end manufacturing sectors such as shipbuilding and chemicals is strong, with shipbuilding completion volume increasing by 18.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [5]. - Fixed investment in the chemical industry grew by 9.9% year-on-year from January to July 2024, indicating sustained high demand [5]. Molybdenum Price Dynamics - Molybdenum concentrate prices are expected to maintain high levels, with significant price elasticity due to low downstream cost proportions [10]. - The current price of molybdenum concentrate is 3,680 yuan per ton, which is significantly lower than the peak price in 2023, suggesting potential for price increases as demand rises [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the industry, with a rating of "看好" (positive) as of September 5, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The monthly bidding volume for molybdenum iron from domestic steel mills reached a record high of 14,600 tons in August 2024, indicating strong downstream demand despite being a relatively off-peak season [1][3]. - The total bidding volume for the first eight months of 2024 was 98,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19% [1][3]. - The demand for molybdenum is robust in sectors such as shipbuilding, chemicals, and wind power, driven by the accelerated transformation and upgrading of domestic manufacturing [1][5]. - Molybdenum is primarily used in alloy steel, stainless steel, tool steel, and cast iron, making it a crucial additive for manufacturing upgrades [1][5]. - The price of molybdenum concentrate remains high, with a price of 3,680 yuan per ton as of August 30, 2024, which is 66% of the 2023 peak price of 5,570 yuan per ton, indicating significant price elasticity [1][10]. - The report anticipates that with the arrival of the traditional peak season, the demand for steel bidding will remain strong, and molybdenum prices are expected to maintain high levels [1][10]. Summary by Sections Steel Bidding Volume - In August 2024, the domestic steel mills' bidding volume for molybdenum iron reached 14,600 tons, a new high for the year [1][3]. - The total bidding volume from January to August 2024 was 98,000 tons, up 19% year-on-year [1][3]. Demand in Manufacturing - The demand in high-end manufacturing sectors such as shipbuilding and chemicals is strong, with shipbuilding completion volume increasing by 18.4% year-on-year in the first half of the year [5]. - Fixed investment in the chemical industry grew by 9.9% year-on-year from January to July 2024, indicating sustained high demand [5]. Molybdenum Pricing and Supply - Molybdenum concentrate prices are currently high, with significant price elasticity due to low downstream cost proportions [10]. - The report notes that the supply of molybdenum is expected to remain rigid, with limited global supply growth anticipated [1].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 [Table_Main] 英伟达数据中心业务持续高增，华为 2024 上半年业绩亮眼 报告要点 英伟达 FY2025Q2 财报亮眼，数据中心业务领跑。8 月 29 日，英伟达发布 2025 财年第二财季报告。FY2025Q2，公司实现营收 300.4 亿美元，同比增 长 122%，环比增长 15%；GAAP 净利润 165.99 亿美元，同比增长 168%， 环比增长 12%；非 GAAP 净利润 169.52 亿美元，同比增长 152%，环比增 长 11%。英伟达的数据中心业务是主要驱动力，实现营收 263 亿美元，同比 增长 154%，环比增长 16%，占公司第二财季总营收的 87.5%；游戏收入 29 亿美元，同比增长 16%，环比增长 9%；专业视觉收入 4.54 亿美元，同比增 长 20%，环比增长 6%；汽车和机器人收入 3.46 亿美元，同比增长 37%，环 比增长 5%。英伟达 Blackwell 芯片因生产问题预计在 2024 年 4 季度开始量 产出货。公司预计 FY2025Q3 营收为 325 亿美元（上下浮动 2%）；GAAP 和非 GAAP 毛利率非别为 ...

[Table_Main] 锑系列深度二：供给告别"宽松时代" [Table_Invest] 有色金属 报告要点 全球地壳丰度与资源储量集中格局，共同决定了锑资源目前紧缺前提。全球 锑储采比仅 24 年（中国仅 16 年）。其稀缺度胜过四大战略金属中其它（钨、 锡、稀土）三个品种。储量格局上，全球呈现中、俄、玻三国占据半壁江山的 高集中度特征。我国锑资源则聚集在湖南、广西、贵州、云南四省。 复盘锑供给，一去难复返的"宽松时代"。复盘锑产业的二十年产量趋势，全 球锑产量整体呈现先升后降趋势。全球锑产量从 2004 年 11.3 万吨，攀升到 2008 年 19.7 万吨，随后 2017 产量整体下降到 13.7 万吨。供给周期大幅波 动的背后，是我国锑产业"透支式"生产——2023 年，我国锑储量占全球 29.5%，产量占全球 48.12%，十年分别下降 22.2PCTS /29.78PCTS，侧面 印证我国锑资源优势地位不断下滑。 供给展望，难言乐观： 1） 短期展望：23 年展望中，极地黄金针对奥林匹亚矿山公司 24 年金矿产量 并不乐观，主要因奥林匹亚达加工的矿石品位下滑。其次 23 年的配额为 过往若干年 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the "Belt and Road" initiative and platform enterprises as key investment opportunities in the high-end manufacturing sector [3]. Core Insights - The automation sector shows unexpected stability in gross margins, with a gross margin of 29.9% in Q2 2024, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating resilience despite product structure adjustments [9][13]. - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing performance pressure due to high base effects, but significant improvement is expected in the second half of 2024 as low base effects come into play [9][21]. - The coal machinery sector remains stable, with high growth in overseas spare parts revenue, while the photovoltaic equipment sector is awaiting a turning point despite high revenue growth in Q2 2024 [9][38]. Summary by Sections Automation Sector - In Q2 2024, the automation sector's sample companies achieved a revenue growth of 8% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 12% year-on-year [13][19]. - Comprehensive enterprises performed best with a revenue increase of 21% year-on-year and a net profit decline of 8% year-on-year [13]. - The sector's overall market size in the first half of 2024 was approximately 147.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year [13]. Engineering Machinery Sector - The engineering machinery sector's revenue in Q2 2024 was 75.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1% but an increase of 11% quarter-on-quarter [21][23]. - The overseas revenue growth for the sector has declined, with a 14% increase noted in the first half of 2024, particularly in Belt and Road countries [9][23]. - The gross margin for the engineering machinery sector in Q2 2024 was reported at 26.0% [23]. Coal Machinery Sector - The coal machinery sector achieved stable performance with a net profit growth of 12% year-on-year in Q2 2024 [27]. - The sector's focus on overseas spare parts has been identified as a high-growth segment [9]. Photovoltaic Equipment Sector - The photovoltaic equipment sector reported a revenue increase of 46% year-on-year in Q2 2024, with a net profit growth of 3% [38]. - Key companies in this sector, such as Maiwei and Jiejia, have seen revenue growth exceeding 50% [38].

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of cost fluctuations on metal prices, emphasizing that during commodity price declines, the concept of cost support becomes significant. For copper, strong price support is observed at the 90th percentile, while for zinc, it is at the 75-80th percentile [1][11][14][16]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Cost Fluctuations - The report highlights that most metal prices are supported by rising costs, with copper showing strong support at the 90th percentile cost level, estimated at $6,780 per ton for 2023 and projected to rise to $7,100-$7,200 per ton in 2024 [14][16]. - Zinc is noted to have strong support at the 75-80th percentile, with overseas mining costs increasing slightly in 2023 [16][18]. Section 2: Updates on Key Metals - **Precious Metals**: With the anticipated interest rate cuts in September, gold shows stronger short-term certainty [21]. - **Copper**: Short-term uncertainty exists, but the medium to long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive due to tightening supply and seasonal demand [22][24]. - **Aluminum**: High profitability is expected to continue, with potential differentiation in green aluminum production [25]. - **Lead and Zinc**: Supply tightness is expected to transmit from mining to smelting, leading to price fluctuations [26]. - **Tin**: Supply disruptions continue, but demand is gradually recovering [27]. - **Nickel**: Ongoing inventory accumulation leads to price fluctuations [28]. - **Tungsten**: Prices are rising due to supply-demand dynamics [30]. - **Antimony**: Inventory accumulation is expected to lead to sales in the second half of the year [31]. - **Molybdenum**: Strong demand from steelmaking keeps prices high [32]. - **Rare Earths**: Supply growth is expected to slow significantly, with demand anticipated to recover [33]. - **Titanium**: The titanium ore market remains stable, but demand for titanium metal is weak [34]. Section 3: Macro Trends and Industry Dynamics - Global PMI is in a downward trend, with the US and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs at 45.8 and 46.8 respectively [36]. - In China, the PMI is at 49.4%, indicating continued pressure, while fixed asset investment remains low [40]. - Recent reports from Chinese copper companies show significant growth in production and profits for the first half of 2024 [43]. Section 4: Metal Prices and Market Performance - **Precious Metals**: Recent price changes include a 1.56% drop in COMEX silver and a 1.79% increase in LME palladium [48]. - **Industrial Metals**: LME aluminum fell by 3.45%, while LME lead decreased by 2.01% [52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the electric equipment industry, particularly in the context of new energy development [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the commitment to transformation in the new energy sector, highlighting the government's supportive policies and the industry's growth potential [10]. - The report identifies key trends in energy metals, battery materials, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic/wind power, energy storage, and the power sector [3][11]. Summary by Sections New Energy Industry Trend Commentary - Lithium prices are experiencing low-level fluctuations, with a carbonated lithium operating rate of 45% in late August, while cobalt prices remain weak and stable [5]. - The sales volume of power batteries in July was 86.3 GWh, showing a month-on-month decline of 6.4% but a year-on-year increase of 49.9% [6]. - The penetration rate of domestic new energy passenger vehicles continues to exceed 50%, with significant model launches expected in the second half of the year [7]. - The photovoltaic sector is seeing slight price increases in silicon materials, while the wind power sector reported a 23% year-on-year increase in installed capacity [8]. Industry Dynamics & Data Tracking - The report tracks the performance of energy metals, noting a significant increase in lithium production targets by companies like SQM and Pilbara [12]. - The report highlights the overall positive performance of the energy storage sector, with expectations for accelerated growth in the second half of 2024 [9]. - The power sector is bolstered by a government white paper reaffirming the commitment to energy transformation, emphasizing the necessity of advancing new energy initiatives [10]. Appendix - The report includes data on industry index fluctuations and a review of the performance of various sub-sectors within the new energy industry [3].