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贵州茅台:2024年中报点评:24H1收入靓丽增长,分红规划提振信心
Southwest Securities· 2024-08-11 15:34
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 83.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 41.7 billion yuan, up 15.9% year-on-year [3] - The growth was driven by both Moutai liquor and series liquor, with Moutai liquor revenue reaching 68.6 billion yuan and series liquor revenue at 13.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2024 [3] - The company has a strong cash flow performance, with cash receipts of 87.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.1% [3] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% for the period of 2024-2026, which is the highest among liquor companies [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 69.46 yuan, 80.18 yuan, and 91.87 yuan, respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 21x, 18x, and 16x [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.0%, and a net profit of 17.6 billion yuan, up 16.1% year-on-year [3] - The revenue from wholesale and agency channels increased by 26.5% year-on-year to 48 billion yuan, while direct sales revenue grew by 7.3% to 33.7 billion yuan [3] Margin and Cash Flow - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 91.9%, remaining stable compared to the previous year [3] - The net profit margin decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 51.7%, but profitability remains high [3] Future Outlook - The company is confident in achieving its annual revenue growth target, supported by its dual-driven strategy of Moutai and series liquor [3] - The company is focusing on three transformations in the domestic market and expanding into overseas markets to meet consumer demand [3]
外贸化学品运输行业专题:小而美,景气度稳步提升
Southwest Securities· 2024-08-11 15:31
外贸化学品运输专题 小而美,景气度稳步提升 西南证券研究发展中心 交通运输研究团队 2024年8月 核心观点 俄乌冲突对进入欧洲的能源贸易流动产生了巨大的、可能是永久性的影响。化学工业受到的影响尤其 严重,因为它依赖能源密集型工艺和某些原料的石油和天然气(能耗占比38%)。高昂的能源成本, 加上高昂的生产成本和严格的监管,许多欧洲化工企业的产品可能难以与美国或亚洲同行竞争。 未来2-3年运力增速放缓,全球化学 品 船运力规模可控。船队正集中进入老化阶段,加上环保公约的 日趋严格,有效运力供给预计将低于名义运力供给,中、韩主要船厂新造船产能预计2028年之前处 于紧绷状态,全球航运业至少未来数年供给端规模可控。截至2024年6月底,全球化学品船合计运力 为1.3亿载重吨,目前在手订单占比为12.9%。以船龄结构来看,目前20岁以上的船舶占比为11.3% 。供应放缓叠加增长需求促使现货市场进一步坚挺。 推荐标的:兴通股份(603209.SH)。1)国际化学品运输需求庞大。不同航运机构预测2023-2025 年化学品运输需求增速 范围为3.3%-6.3%。2)公司积极布局国际散装液体化学品水上运输市场,已 成功开拓 ...
2024年7月通胀数据点评:通胀超预期回升,背后结构性分化
Southwest Securities· 2024-08-11 15:26
45302 [Table_ReportInfo] 2024 年 08 月 09 日 证券研究报告•宏观简评报告 数据点评 通胀超预期回升,背后结构性分化 ——2024 年 7 月通胀数据点评 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...
7月通胀数据点评:通胀超预期回升,背后结构性分化
Southwest Securities· 2024-08-11 15:23
41543 [Table_ReportInfo] 2024 年 08 月 09 日 证券研究报告•宏观简评报告 数据点评 通胀超预期回升,背后结构性分化 ——2024 年 7 月通胀数据点评 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...
宏观周报:扩内需增新动力,全球资产价格波动加大
Southwest Securities· 2024-08-11 15:23
[Table_ReportInfo] 2024 年 08 月 09 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报(8.5-8.9) 45302 扩内需增新动力,全球资产价格波动加大 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...
健帆生物:产品恢复高增长,盈利能力改善
Southwest Securities· 2024-08-11 15:18
Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue reaching 1.496 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 47.8%, and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 99.1% to 550 million yuan [2]. - The company has improved its channel inventory and achieved a recovery in performance, with Q1 and Q2 revenues of 740 million yuan and 750 million yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 30% and 70.9% [2]. - The company has seen notable growth in its nephrology, hepatology, and critical care sectors, with the nephrology segment's revenue increasing by 84% in H1 2024 [2]. - The gross profit margin for H1 2024 was reported at 80.5%, with a net profit margin of 36.8%, indicating improved profitability [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 1.057 billion yuan, 1.471 billion yuan, and 1.845 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 142.34%, 39.02%, and 25.71% [3]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 3.043 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 58.31% compared to 2023 [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.54 yuan in 2023 to 1.31 yuan in 2024 [4]. Business Segment Performance - The company has established a comprehensive product system in the nephrology field, with significant revenue contributions from its HA series blood purification products, which have been in clinical use for 20 years and are now available in over 6,000 hospitals [2]. - The KHA series, specifically designed for uremia, saw a revenue increase of 180% in H1 2024, covering over 500 hospitals [2]. - The hepatology segment has expanded to over 2,000 hospitals, with a revenue increase of 112% in H1 2024 [2]. - The company’s blood purification equipment, including the DX-10 blood purification machine, has been installed in nearly 4,000 units across 1,800 hospitals, achieving a market share of 21.43% in the CRRT device segment [2]. Market Outlook - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, with a 64% increase in revenue from international operations in H1 2024 [2]. - The company anticipates continued growth in sales volume for its blood purification products, with projected growth rates of 67%, 36%, and 22% for the years 2024 to 2026 [6].
医药行业2024年8月投资月报:看好医药三大方向
Southwest Securities· 2024-08-09 09:30
医药行业2024年8月投资月报 看好医药三大方向 西南证券研究发展中心 2024年8月 分析师:杜向阳 执业证号:S1250520030002 电话:021-68416017 邮箱:duxy@swsc.com.cn 2024年8月投资观点 行情回顾:2024年1-7月,申万医药指数下跌20.91%,跑输沪深300指数21.23pp,年初以来医药行业涨跌幅排名第26。2024年7月申 万医药指数上涨0.22% ,跑赢沪深300指数0.79 pp,月初以来行业涨跌幅排名第13。2024年1-7月,血液制品累计跌幅最小(-4.5%); 线下药店累计跌幅最大(-40.4%)。2024年7月,医疗研发外包板块涨幅最大(+7.5%),线下药店跌幅最大(-13.2%)。 中报业绩进入密集披露期,医药行业政策催化不断。7月5日,国常会审议通过《全链条支持创新药发展实施方案》,有望进一步促进创 新药行业产业升级和高质量发展;7月10日,国家药监局组织制定了《中药标准管理专门规定》,自2025年1月1日起施行,有望进一步 激发中药创新药动力;7月23日,国家医保局发布《按病组和病种分值付费2.0版分组方案并深入推进相关工作的通知 ...
安琪酵母:Q2经营改善,股权激励落地彰显信心
Southwest Securities· 2024-08-09 08:00
[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 08 月 07 日 证券研究报告•2024 年半年报点评 买入 (维持) 当前价:29.61 元 安琪酵母(600298)食品饮料 目标价:——元(6 个月) Q2 经营改善,股权激励落地彰显信心 [Table_Summary 事件:公司发布] 2024年半年报,上半年实现营业收入 71.7亿元,同比增长 6.9%; 实现归母净利润 6.9亿元,同比增长 3.2%。其中 24Q2实现营业收入 36.9亿元, 同比增长 11.3%;实现归母净利润3.7 亿元,同比增长 17.3%。 国内业务改善,海外延续较高增速。1、分品类看,上半年酵母及深加工产品、 制糖产品分别实现营业收入 51.2亿元(+8.8%)、5.9亿元(-26.5%)。2、分区 域看,上半年国内、国外分别实现营业收入 43.1 亿元(+0.9%)、28.2 亿元 (+17.9%)。二季度国内业务恢复正增长,国外业务保持较快增速。随着埃及、 俄罗斯子公司扩产逐步落地,公司有望进一步发挥成本优势、扩大在全球的份 额。 原材料价格回落,Q2盈利同比改善。1、上半年毛利率 24.3%,同比下降 0.3 ...
轨交行业动态点评:1-7月铁路投资同比增长10.5%,高景气持续
Southwest Securities· 2024-08-09 06:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating that the overall return is expected to exceed the relevant market index by more than 5% over the next six months [1][17]. Core Insights - Railway investment in China has shown a strong growth of 10.5% year-on-year from January to July 2024, with total fixed asset investment reaching 410.2 billion [2][10]. - The period from 2024 to 2027 is projected to be a peak investment phase for railways, benefiting domestic rail transit equipment manufacturing companies [2]. - The China National Railway Group has indicated that the average annual fixed asset investment for railways during the 14th Five-Year Plan will be around 800 billion, similar to the previous plan [2]. - The demand for railway equipment maintenance and upgrades is expected to increase significantly due to the aging of existing equipment and the push for modernization [2]. - Recent contract signings by CRRC Corporation amount to 45.99 billion, representing 19.6% of its 2023 revenue, indicating robust demand in the railway equipment sector [2][3]. Summary by Sections Railway Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in railways reached 410.2 billion, with July's investment at 72.9 billion, marking the highest levels since 2015 [2][10]. - The railway investment is expected to maintain high levels due to ongoing modernization and maintenance needs, with projections for annual investments exceeding 800 billion in 2024-2025 [2]. Equipment Manufacturing and Maintenance - The report highlights a significant increase in railway equipment maintenance orders, with total orders surpassing the previous year's revenue figures [2]. - The transition from older diesel locomotives to electric ones is anticipated, with a policy aimed at phasing out outdated diesel engines by 2027 [2]. Recommended Companies - Key companies recommended for investment include CRRC Corporation, China Railway Signal & Communication, and Siwei Control, with additional mentions of other core component manufacturers [3].
1-7月铁路投资同比增长10.5%,高景气持续
Southwest Securities· 2024-08-09 06:03
2024 牛 08 月 08 日 证券所充报告•行业研究•杭械设备 轨交行业动态点评 强于大市(维持) 1-7 月铁路投资同比增长 10.5%,高景气持续 投美美点 ● 7 月铁路周无贫产投资材块高增。2024M1-M7 全国铁路无成周定资产投资 4102 亿,网比+10.5%,半7月投资 729 亿,网比+9.8%,绝对颍和投资增速 均是 2015 年未同期最高。2024-2027 年是铁路投资大年,国内轨交装备制造 企业确定性变益;根据国铁集团:"十四五"全国铁路国定资产投资总规模特 与"十三五"年均 8000亿左右总体相当,2021-2023年铁路投资分别为 7489 亿、7109亿、7645亿元,预计 2024-2025 年铁路投资年均有望在 8000亿以 上:2026-2030年,在铁路支新改造和后市场宽未背亲下,铁路行业投资有望 维持高征,持续刺激相关设备投资力违释放,带动轨交谈备行业更新换代&维 修维保后市场持续效重。 ● 行业微观将标题预期。近期,中国中丰发布公告,2024M6-M7 期间中丰签订 合同 459.9 亿元,占 2023 年登收 19.6%,共中签订动车组高级修订单 136.8 ...