电子行业2024年中期投资策略 复苏转繁荣宜捂股，布局端侧+中上游 西南证券研究发展中心 电子研究团队 2024年7月 回顾年初2024年电子行业10点预测 针对我们年初对2024年电子行业做出的10点预测进行简要回顾 1、中报业绩以大票超预期为主，风格从年中如期回归均衡——"电子行业投资在2024年上半年以供给推动为 主，小盘和成长风格占优，2024年下半年供需共振，风格回归均衡" 2、iPhone AI的预期拉动消费电子板块交易已经从复苏如期切换至繁荣预期——"全球消费电子半导体库存将 于24Q1降低至历史平均以下，补库重启，周期从复苏切换至繁荣" 3、工业补库行情从4月如期开始——"全球工业和汽车半导体库存将于24Q1见顶，工业和汽车半导体从萧条 切换至复苏" 4、SMIC、华虹Q2如期开始见底涨价，但距离传导至上游材料和零部件仍需时间——"半导体代工将于24Q1 见底，国产化率更低、集中度更低的半导体材料和零部件将跑赢设备" 5、Q3存储价格将持续上涨，NAND涨幅或有所回落——"存储价格24H1以震荡为主，2024下半年将进入右 侧上涨趋势" 6、SMIC和英特尔均上调2025年资本开支预期——"全 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 14.84 yuan for the next 6 months [4] Core Views - The company is a leader in the primary lithium battery sector, with significant growth in revenue and net profit in Q1 2024 due to economies of scale and falling lithium prices [4] - The company has achieved industry-leading automation levels in its production lines, with a production speed of 120PPM, enhancing product stability and competitiveness [2] - The company's revenue and net profit have shown steady growth, with a 473.8% YoY increase in net profit in Q1 2024 [4] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from 346.38 million yuan in 2023 to 677.43 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 19.2% from 2019 to 2023 [4][19] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 53.30 million yuan in 2023 to 155.37 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 20.77% from 2023 to 2026 [4] - The company's ROE is expected to rise from 11.63% in 2023 to 20.83% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [4] Industry Overview - The global primary lithium battery market grew from $1.53 billion in 2013 to $2.54 billion in 2022, with the Chinese market expanding from 3.02 billion yuan to 6.26 billion yuan during the same period [14] - Lithium manganese batteries account for 49% of the global primary lithium battery market, with a projected CAGR of 2.3% from 2020 to 2025 [56] - The IoT market is expected to grow from $320.9 billion in 2022 to $1.56 trillion by 2032, driving demand for lithium manganese batteries [41] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is one of the largest domestic producers of cylindrical lithium manganese batteries, with a market share of approximately 3.0% globally [104] - The top eight lithium manganese battery manufacturers account for about 60% of the global market, indicating a stable competitive landscape [104] - The company's market share in China increased from 44.9% in 2019 to 48.4% in 2022, reflecting a slight improvement in market concentration [25] Technological Advancements - The company has developed high-reliability lithium-manganese and lithium-iron sulfide batteries, achieving international leading levels in battery performance [27] - The company has optimized its production processes, such as the use of a unique electrolyte formula, to enhance product consistency and material efficiency [27] - The company's automation improvements have significantly increased production efficiency, with a single winding machine achieving a speed of 15PPM [2] Growth Drivers - The company is expanding its production capacity with a new project expected to add 180 million units of lithium battery production annually, addressing current capacity constraints [110] - The lithium iron battery market has significant growth potential, with the company positioned to benefit from the replacement of traditional zinc-manganese batteries [84] - The IoT and smart meter markets are expected to drive demand for lithium manganese batteries, with the smart water meter market projected to reach 43.4 billion yuan by 2030 [94] Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks from fluctuating raw material prices, particularly lithium, which could impact profitability [85] - Intensifying competition in the lithium manganese battery market, especially in emerging applications, could pressure the company's market share [85] - The company is exposed to risks from technological advancements in alternative battery chemistries, which could reduce demand for its products [86]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company's lithium battery business showed strong growth in the first half of 2024, with revenue reaching approximately 1.106 billion, a year-on-year increase of 78.71% [2]. - The company aims to ship 1.5 billion units in the third quarter, indicating a steady increase in output [2]. - The overall revenue for the first half of 2024 was nearly 3.065 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.19%, with a net profit of 167 million, up 301.74% year-on-year [3]. - The company is expected to achieve annual shipments between 400 million and 450 million units, as inventory levels normalize and demand from the power tool sales season increases [4]. - New application scenarios such as BBU modules, eVTOL, and AI robots are expected to support the expansion of the overall market capacity [5]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a revenue of approximately 3.065 billion in the first half of 2024, with a net profit of 167 million, reflecting a significant increase compared to the previous year [3]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 1.636 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.44%, with a net profit of 97 million, up 36.78% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is 442 million, 554 million, and 680 million respectively, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [6]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 5.221 billion in 2024 to 9.728 billion in 2026, with corresponding net profits increasing significantly [7]. Market Outlook - The company is expanding its overseas production capabilities, particularly in Malaysia, to cater to sensitive overseas clients and the Southeast Asian electric motorcycle market [19]. - The LED and metal logistics businesses are also performing well, with LED revenue reaching approximately 751 million in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.7% [19].

创新药出海专题 国际化渐入佳境，洞悉出海潜力管线 西南证券研究发展中心 2024年7月 分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 分析师：汤泰萌 执业证书：S1250522120001 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：ttm@swsc.com.cn 核 心 观 点 ◆ 创新药出海的内在逻辑：医疗支出差距、药品价格差距、药品峰值差距和快速回笼资金 . 我们认为，创新药出海的内在逻辑包括以下三点：第一，中美医疗支付能力差距显著，海外市场空间巨大；第二，创新 药在国际市场上的售价通常更高，中美药品销售药品峰值存在巨大差异；第三，首付款快速回笼资金，解决企业燃眉之 急，并加速推进海外临床试验。 ◆ 创新药出海的三要素：市场空间大，疗效和安全性优势、先发优势 . 市场空间巨大，可有效解决未满足的临床需求。市场空间的潜力是MNC最在意的问题，如强生携手传奇生物共同推进西 达基奥仑赛的商业化，强生预计西达基奥仑赛全球销售额有望达50亿美元。 . 临床有效性及安全性较目前标准疗法优势明显。药物的临床疗效和安全性优势是药品拓展市场的关键 ...

医药行业2024年中期投资策略 看好下半年结构性行情， 聚焦红利、出海、创新三大主线 西南证券研究发展中心 医药杜向阳团队 2024年7月 核 心 观 点 下半年，医药行情可期。2024年初以来（截止20230628），申万医药指数下跌21.09%，跑输沪 深300指数21.98pp，年初以来行业涨跌幅排名第27。从行情来看，第一段，1月到2月初快速下跌 后，随市场迎来一波反弹至3月上旬。第二段，从一季报临近4月中旬开始反弹至5月中上旬，创新 药板块表现较好。目前医药估值和持仓处于历史低位。展望下半年，全链条支持创新药政策有望带 动下半年行情。 我们看好医药板块下半年行情，重点看好低估值、出海、院内刚需三大主线。 方向之一——红利板块包括高股息OTC个股；国企改革预期相关板块值得关注。 方向之二——器械出海包括IVD、呼吸机及呼吸道检测产品、手套、冠脉支架等。创新药及类似物 出海持续渐入佳境。 方向之三——医疗反腐后，关注院内医疗刚性需求，比如血制品、骨科、麻醉药、胰岛素、IVD、 电生理等领域。消费医疗属性品种，以及上游等板块中长期值得跟踪。此外，上半年减肥药和AI医 疗主题投资性机会符合我们预期。 1 核 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 12.05 CNY and a target price not specified for the next six months [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has reached an inflection point in its performance, with both volume and price of eel products increasing, leading to a turnaround from losses to profitability [3][5]. - In the first half of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 3.009 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 9.81%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 56 million CNY, marking a return to profit [3][4]. - The rapid growth in eel farming and improved profit structure are attributed to factors such as climate change, stocking density, and market conditions, with eel output surpassing 7,600 tons for the first time in history during the first half of 2024 [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1.648 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 8.73%, with a net profit of 50 million CNY, indicating a return to profitability [3][4]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 6.998 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 21.71% expected in 2025 [7]. Eel Farming and Production - The company’s eel farming business has seen significant capacity release, with a historical high of 7,600 tons of eel output in the first half of 2024, and 5,319 tons in Q2 alone [2][4]. - The gross margin in the farming segment remains high, contributing to an improved profit structure as the scale of eel production expands [4]. Investment and Shareholder Confidence - The controlling shareholder has increased their stake by over 50 million CNY from February to July 2023, reflecting confidence in the company's future [4]. - The company completed its employee stock ownership plan in March 2024, purchasing 20,731,400 shares, which is 4.54% of the total share capital, at an average price of 15.78 CNY per share [4]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.6 CNY, 1.02 CNY, and 1.64 CNY, respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20x, 12x, and 7x [5][7].

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 07 月 19 日 证券研究报告•行业研究•有色金属 强于大市 钛行业专题报告 钛产业向成熟期迈进,开启高端化进程 钛矿:我国钛资源禀赋不佳,优质钛矿进口依赖度高。 [Table_Summary] 全球钛矿资源分布集中, 新增资源有限,储量调查数据不断下修。2023 年我国钛精矿进口量达 193.9 万吨(TiO2含量),优质钛矿进口依存度达 33%。国内钛精矿约 8成用于生产 钛白粉,海绵钛占比约 10%,精矿价格主要由钛白粉主导,海绵钛价格受自身 供需影响偶有独立行情。 钛白粉:我国钛白粉占据绝对市场主导地位,短期内政策利好与国际压力并存。 5 月房地产新政将进一步推动保交房政策的落实,随着房屋竣工增速的提升, 钛白粉需求量有望修复。过去几年海外钛白粉厂商停产叠加东南亚国家高经济 增速带动的需求提升,我国钛白粉厂家抓住国际市场机遇,出口总量从 2013 年的 20.9 万吨增长到 2023 年的 155.7 万吨,十年 CAGR 约为 22.2%。我们 认为,供应端在环保趋紧背景下,硫酸法生产企业将不断受到扰动;需求端, 即使未来国内地产竣工端增速下 ...

[Table_StockInfo] 2024 年 07 月 17 日 证券研究报告•公司研究报告 买入 (首次) 当前价:8.99 元 巨人网络(002558)传媒 目标价:11.10 元(6 个月) 经典 IP 焕发新活力,AI 赋能未来可期 [Table_Summary 推荐逻辑:1)]业绩保持稳健增长,24Q1实现营收 7亿元,同比+37%,归母净 利润同增 44%至 3.5 亿元,发展具备韧性;2)主营业务方面,征途 IP 手游夯 实主业基本盘,《球球大作战》卡位休闲游戏赛道,叠加 AI赋能游戏业务工作 流,后续表现可期;3)积极回报股东,拟每 10股派发现金红利 0.8元(含税), 综合中期已派发的现金红利,2023 年度现金分红合计 4 亿元。 征途 IP 老树发新芽,流水表现稳中有升。征途系列 IP 新款旗舰手游《原始征 途》上线发行表现突出,上线首月流水逾 3 亿,23 年流水超 15 亿,累计新进 用户数逾 1500万。征途赛道亦初步完成小程序游戏的布局,具体来看,《王者 征途》小程序游戏已于 23年报告期末启动测试,自 2024 年 2月逐步提升买量 投放力度,排名及流水稳中有进。《原始征 ...

计算机行业2024年中期投资策略 把握AI商业化进展，聚焦结构亮点 www.swsc.com.cn 西南证券研究发展中心 计算机研究团队 2024年7月 核心观点 底部特征显现，有望在H2迎来边际缓和。总体来看，当前计算机公司的估值水平、机构持仓水平皆回 落至低位区间；叠加海外流动性中期放松预期，AI技术周期与科技政策周期共振，行业估值具备向上拔 升的潜力。 1 利润修复的基础条件已经具备。1）供给端已逐步出清：计算机公司企业2023年纷纷开始重视内部改革 和提质增效，对人员招聘实施严格措施，整体人员和薪酬已得到有效控制；2）需求端部分领域曙光初 现：计算机具备典型后周期属性，结构性机会下半年可以重点关注。部分领域在政策支持、资金配套下， 景气度已开始回暖，"收入-成本"的正向剪刀差或将扩大，利润弹性逐步得到释放。 从方向选择看，1）AI仍是明显的产业趋势，算力是兑现度较高的一环，端侧AI（PC、手机、智驾）可 以持续关注落地和商业化进展。2）关注有明确政策牵引、且已带动招投标落地的领域，包括能源IT、 大交通（低空+车路云）等。3）关注预期有政策变革的方向，包括财税IT、信创、数据要素、医疗IT等。 4）关 ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 07 月 21 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业创新药周报(7.15-7.21) 2024 年 7 月第三周创新药周报 (附小专题 PD-1/CTLA-4 研发概况) A 股和港股创新药板块及 XBI 指数本周走势 西南证券研究发展中心 [2024 Table_Summary 年 7月第 3周,陆港两地创新药板块共计 ] 18个股上涨,41个股下跌。其中 涨幅前三为金斯瑞生物科技(+30.8%)、歌礼制药 -B(+14.89%)、科济药业 -B(+6.34%)。跌幅前三为华领医药-B(-18.79%)、乐普生物-B(-15.85%)、圣诺医药 -B(-12.62%)。 本周 A股创新药板块上涨 2.31%,跑赢沪深300指数 0.39pp,生物医药上涨2.9%。 近 6个月 A 股创新药累计上涨 1.05%,跑输沪深 300指数 4.11pp,生物医药累计 下跌 8.27%。 本周港股创新药板块下跌 1.08%,跑赢恒生指数 3.7pp,恒生医疗保健下跌 1.7%。 近 6个月港股创新药累计下跌 0.57%,跑输恒生指数 ...