新消费迎发展机遇，日元持续贬值引关注 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 的 1 录 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 1 一周大事记 （1）财政收入仍待修复，土地出让金降幅扩大 点评：从收入看，1-5 月，全国税收收入约 8.05 万亿元，同比下降 5.1%，非税收入约 1.65 万亿元，同比增长 10.3%，非税收入增长较快。从主要税种表现来看，大部分税种同比 下降，仅消费税、进口货物增值税等实现正增长。其中，国内增值税同比下降 6.1%，企业 所得税同比下降 1.7%，个人所得税同比下降 6%，证券交易印花税同比下降 50.8%，契税同 比下降 8.7%，而进口货物增值税同比增长 1.5%，国内消费税增长 7.2%。从支出看，除卫 生健康支出、交通运输支出外同比增速均为正增长，其中增长最快的是农林水支出、城乡社 区支出、债务付息支出，分别同比增长 12%、9.5%和 7.3%。5 月单月，交通运输、农林水 事务和社会保障和就业支出在当月增长较快，分别实现 9.5%、9%和 8.3%的同比增速，而 科学技术、教育支出同比由上月上涨转为下降，卫生健康支出同比降幅扩大。从政府性基金 收支来看，1-5 月，全国政府性 ...

西南证券研究发展中心 策略团队程睿智 2024年6月 二、全球经济的逆风之下的风险点 宏大叙事主题化 宏观经济系统中通胀状态有三个区间，类似 图中通胀的变化率是通胀读数的三次函数： ③ 通缩正反馈区间II：通缩越强，需求越 美国宏观拐点交易简要回顾 宏大叙事主题化阶段，系统负反馈时滞缩短 一、宏大叙事主题化下的当前市场窘境 1 对于周期拐点的判断不断受挫之时，市场倾向于选择宏大叙事作为炒作逻辑，但宏大叙事短期很难证伪，所以只 能变为主题化炒作，变成"故事很大，行情很短"的状态。 ② 通胀正反馈区间I：通胀越高，需求越强； 通缩-通胀机制转换 2 -40 202 2.10 通胀见顶后加速回落：第一次fed put交易， 美债利率下的同时美股走高； 202 3.9 QRA超预期，叠加经济数据超预期，引领一波 降息预期修正与长端利率修复，以熊陡修复期限利差， 压缩金融机构潜在风险； 202 4.2 通胀下行受阻，降息预期重新收敛，期间联储 和财政部均不再重新引导过于鹰派预期，5月fomc超预 期QT taper，放宽银行资本要求，增加国债需求，减 少长端失控上行风险； 美国经济意外指数vs降息预期（%） -2.3 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Top Group (601689) with a target price of 73.50 CNY over the next six months [1][3]. Core Insights - Top Group is a leading platform-based automotive parts company that has successfully expanded its product lines beyond traditional interior and rubber damping products, which now account for only 55% of its revenue. The company has capitalized on opportunities in the new energy vehicle sector and has seen rapid growth since 2020, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.5% in total revenue and 47.4% in net profit from 2019 to 2021 [2][3][26]. - The company is focusing on three growth curves: lightweight and thermal management systems, which have increased their revenue share to 39%, and automotive electronics and drive actuators, which are expected to significantly boost revenue in the coming years [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1983, Top Group has been a key player in the automotive parts industry for nearly four decades, specializing in NVH damping systems, interior and exterior systems, lightweight components, chassis systems, smart cockpit parts, thermal management systems, air suspension systems, and intelligent driving systems [14][17]. Company Analysis - The company has successfully diversified its product offerings, with traditional damping and interior components now making up 33% and 22% of revenue, respectively, as of 2023. The lightweight chassis system has become the second-largest business segment, contributing 31% of revenue in 2023 [2][28]. - The automotive electronics segment has seen a CAGR of 8.5% from 2019 to 2023, with expectations for substantial growth as new products enter mass production in 2024 [2][3]. Financial Analysis - The company is projected to achieve a CAGR of 26.7% in net profit from 2024 to 2026, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to reach 2.45 CNY in 2024, 3.00 CNY in 2025, and 3.76 CNY in 2026. The corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 24, 20, and 16, respectively [3][4]. - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at 197.01 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 35.02%, and net profit is expected to be 21.51 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 26.50% [4][26]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report anticipates a target PE of 30 for 2024, leading to a target price of 73.50 CNY for the stock [3][4].

Group 1 - The report discusses Japan's transition from a deflationary to an inflationary environment, highlighting the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) recent monetary policy normalization, which includes raising interest rates and ending negative interest rate policies [67][99][106] - It notes that the proportion of companies in Japan choosing to raise prices has reached a record high, indicating a shift in pricing strategies among businesses [2][105] - The report emphasizes that inflation expectations among households and businesses are at their highest levels historically, suggesting a significant change in the economic landscape [2][105] Group 2 - The normalization of monetary policy is linked to the re-emergence of debt divergence risks within the yen pricing framework, which could impact the exchange rate dynamics [57][99][106] - The report introduces a dual-factor pricing model for USDJPY, indicating that the debt divergence risk index and the yield spread between US and Japanese 10-year bonds are significant explanatory variables for the exchange rate [19][20][99] - It highlights that the relationship between debt divergence risk and the yen has shifted, with higher debt divergence risk now negatively impacting the yen in a normal inflation environment, contrasting with previous periods of prolonged deflation [20][57][99] Group 3 - The report outlines the feedback mechanisms between yen depreciation and rising Japanese government bond yields, suggesting that as bond yields increase, the risk of debt divergence also rises, leading to further yen depreciation and higher imported inflation [35][57][99] - It discusses the implications of Japan's monetary policy adjustments on global financial markets, particularly in the context of emerging markets facing potential capital outflows due to shifts in the global financing currency dynamics [35][99][106] - The report concludes that Japan's monetary policy adjustments are a critical starting point for broader changes in the global credit currency system, potentially deepening existing fractures [67][99][106]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) initiated monetary policy normalization in March 2024, raising the policy rate from -0.1% to a range of 0% to 0.1%[1] - The BOJ ended its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy and ceased purchasing ETFs and J-REITs, marking a significant shift after eight years of negative interest rates[1] - Despite these hawkish measures, the Japanese yen depreciated from 150 to over 157 against the US dollar, indicating market skepticism about the effectiveness of the policy changes[1] Group 2: Inflation Dynamics - Japan's inflation has normalized, with a significant increase in the proportion of companies raising prices, reaching the highest level since 1983[1] - Both household and corporate inflation expectations are at record highs, suggesting a shift in pricing strategies post-pandemic[1] - The cost transmission coefficient has increased, allowing upstream costs to be passed down to consumers more effectively than in the past[1] Group 3: Debt Dynamics and Risks - The normalization of monetary policy reintroduces debt divergence risks into the pricing framework of the yen, as higher interest rates could lead to increased debt sustainability concerns[1] - A dual-factor pricing model for USD/JPY indicates a strong negative relationship with the debt divergence risk index, with a model fit of 75%[1] - Historical analysis shows that during normal inflation periods, higher debt divergence risks negatively impact the yen, contrasting with previous deflationary periods where the relationship was positive[1]

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [2]. Core Views - As of June 21, 2024, the company received a $75 million equity investment from Takeda, significantly boosting its cash reserves and supporting clinical research in China and the U.S. [2] - The company signed an exclusive option agreement for the global rights to the third-generation BCR-ABL inhibitor, Olverembatinib, outside of China, receiving an upfront payment of $100 million and potential milestone payments totaling up to $1.2 billion [2][3]. - The efficacy of Olverembatinib in patients previously treated with TKI therapies is notable, with a 60.8% complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) rate and a 42.4% major molecular response (MMR) rate, indicating a potential peak sales exceeding $1 billion overseas [3]. - The international progress of APG-2575, a Bcl-2 inhibitor, is accelerating, with multiple indications entering Phase III clinical trials, including a significant milestone with FDA approval for a global registration trial in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) [3]. - Revenue forecasts for the company are optimistic, with projected revenues of 1.07 billion, 620 million, and 1.18 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, driven by the commercialization of Olverembatinib and APG-2575 [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 221.98 million yuan in 2023, with a projected increase to 1.07 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a decrease to 620.49 million yuan in 2025, and a rebound to 1.18 billion yuan in 2026 [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve from a loss of 925.64 million yuan in 2023 to a loss of 121.92 million yuan in 2024, and further losses of 560.18 million yuan in 2025, and 102.77 million yuan in 2026 [4][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to improve from -2.94 yuan in 2023 to -0.39 yuan in 2024, -1.78 yuan in 2025, and -0.33 yuan in 2026 [4][9]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is expected to capture market shares of 13.9%, 28.9%, and 41% for Olverembatinib in the treatment of CML from 2024 to 2026, translating to revenues of 3.4 billion, 5.7 billion, and 9.7 billion yuan, respectively [8]. - APG-2575 is anticipated to generate revenues of 0.5 billion yuan in 2025 and 2.1 billion yuan in 2026, with market entry expected in 2025 [8]. Clinical Development - The report highlights the significant clinical efficacy of Olverembatinib, particularly in patients resistant to previous treatments, which supports the company's growth narrative [3]. - APG-2575's entry into critical registration trials marks a significant milestone in the company's international expansion efforts [3].

[Tabl 2024e_StockInfo 年 06 月 24 日] 证券研究报告•公司研究报告 买入 (首次) 当前价:7.07 港元 龙源电力(0916.HK)公用事业 目标价:8.52 港元 风电龙头装机高增,"以大代小"提升效率 推荐逻辑:1)国务院多举措助力绿电消纳,未来价格机制完善有望保证绿电企 业合理收益;2)资源储备充足,2024-2025 年或迎来投产高峰,分别投产 7.5GW 和 11.5GW,国能集团 21.4GW 新能源资产有望注入;3)发电量平稳增长,"以 大代小"有利于提升运营效率。 多举措助力绿电消纳,价格机制有望完善。国务院印发《2024-2025 年节能降 碳行动方案》,采取多项举措助力绿电消纳。近年来特高压建设提速,预计 2024 年线路长度超过 5万公里,储能装机容量高增,政策目标到 2027年抽蓄投运规 模达到 8000万千瓦以上,需求侧响应能力达到最大负荷的 5%以上,消纳能力 持续改善。新能源入市交易大势所趋,价格机制有望进一步完善,以保障绿电 企业合理收益。同时绿电环境价值逐步凸显,国家电网公司经营区成交绿电的 环境溢价呈现逐年提升。 装机量保持高增,资源分布优质 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry as of June 23, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to reach 49.1% in June, with a projected retail volume of approximately 860,000 NEVs, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.9% [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the smart vehicle sector, driven by government policies and technological advancements [2]. - The report suggests that the automotive market is likely to see increased sales due to the implementation of vehicle replacement subsidies and manufacturers striving to meet semi-annual sales targets [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW automotive sector index rose by 0.3% last week, while the CSI 300 index fell by 1.3%. The passenger vehicle sector increased by 2.1%, and the commercial passenger vehicle sector surged by 7.8% [7]. 2. Market Highlights 2.1 Industry News - In the first half of June, wholesale passenger vehicle sales were 619,000 units, down 20% year-on-year, while retail sales were 634,000 units, down 13% year-on-year [24]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) expressed strong opposition to the EU's proposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, emphasizing the need for fair competition [24]. - The NDRC announced plans to enhance charging infrastructure, focusing on network optimization and service improvement [25]. 2.2 Company News - Major companies such as GAC Group and BYD are highlighted for their performance, with BYD's passenger vehicle sales reaching 330,000 units in May, a year-on-year increase of 38.2% [27]. - Dongfeng Motor signed a cooperation agreement with Guangxi to develop the new energy vehicle industry [25]. 2.3 New Vehicle Launches - Several new models were launched, including the Wuling Bingo and Hongqi H6, with prices ranging from 5.68 to 59.98 million yuan [30]. 2.4 International Sales Data - In North America, vehicle sales in May totaled 166.2 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [32]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like BYD and GAC Group, which are well-positioned to benefit from policy changes and market trends [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of June 23, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The innovation drug sector in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a decline, with A-shares down 4.32% and Hong Kong stocks down 5.88% in the fourth week of June 2024 [2][15]. - The report highlights that 14 stocks rose while 45 stocks fell in the innovation drug sector during the same week, with notable gainers including Frontline Bio-U (+15.82%) and Nanjing New Pharmaceutical (+8.85%) [2][15]. - Over the past six months, A-shares in the innovation drug sector have cumulatively decreased by 4.40%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.44 percentage points [2][16]. - The report also notes that the XBI index in the U.S. increased by 2.21% during the same week, with a cumulative increase of 1.7% over the past six months [2][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - A total of 14 stocks in the innovation drug sector rose, while 45 fell, with the A-share innovation drug sector down 4.32% [2][15]. - The Hong Kong innovation drug sector fell by 5.88%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 6.36 percentage points [2][18]. - The XBI index in the U.S. rose by 2.21% during the week [2][20]. 2. New Drug Approvals - In June, 7 new drugs were approved in China, with 3 new indications approved this week [3][21]. - The U.S. saw 5 NDA approvals and 1 BLA approval in June, with 2 NDA approvals and 1 BLA approval this week [3][26]. - No new drugs were approved in Europe or Japan during June [3][28][30]. 3. Key Drug Developments - The report discusses the progress of key innovative drugs, including the approval of lenacapavir for HIV-1 prevention, which showed a 100% efficacy rate in a key trial [4]. - The report also highlights the ongoing development of GLP-1 receptor agonists for diabetes and obesity, with multiple drugs in various stages of clinical trials [8][11]. 4. Clinical Trials - A total of 54 clinical trials were publicly announced in China this week, including 22 Phase I trials, 10 Phase II trials, and 21 Phase III trials [21][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the media industry as of June 23, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The media sector experienced a decline of 5.12% this week, underperforming the ChiNext by approximately 3.14 percentage points, while outperforming the CSI 300 by about 3.83 percentage points [7]. - The gaming index (CI005577) fell by 6.27%, while the advertising index (CI005847) decreased by 2.59% [8][10]. - The education index (CI005816) dropped by 2.92%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.62% [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The media sector's performance was generally weak, with a 5.12% decline [7]. - The gaming index underperformed the market, with a 6.27% drop compared to the CSI 300's 1.30% decline [8]. - The advertising index also fell, down 2.59% [10]. 2. Gaming Industry - The top ten games on the iOS revenue chart include "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Honor of Kings" [28]. - The report highlights the successful launch of the SLG mobile game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World," which ranked high on the revenue charts [32]. 3. Sports Industry - The sports index (399804) decreased by 3.85%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 2.55% [10]. 4. Education Industry - The education index in A-shares fell by 2.92%, while the Hong Kong education index dropped by 4.78% [11]. - The report notes the performance of various education companies, with A-share companies underperforming the CSI 300 [13]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Mango Super Media (300413) and Shenzhou Taiyue (300002) for potential investment opportunities [2].