Fiscal Policy Insights - A new debt limit of 6 trillion yuan will be implemented over three years to address local government hidden debt, easing liquidity pressure[2] - The total hidden debt at the end of 2023 is estimated at 14.3 trillion yuan, with the new policy expected to reduce this to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028[3] - The government plans to allocate 8 billion yuan annually from new local government bonds specifically for debt replacement, totaling 40 trillion yuan over five years[3] Economic Growth and Sustainability - Current fiscal policies focus on liquidity issues rather than directly increasing local government revenues, indicating a need for future incremental policies[4] - The government debt ratio stands at 67.5%, significantly lower than the G20 average of 118.2%, suggesting room for increased borrowing[5] - Future policies are expected to emphasize sustainable economic growth and the relationship between local finance and economic development[7] Market Confidence and Risks - The central government's debt replacement strategy is anticipated to boost market confidence and indirectly alleviate non-official debt pressures[3] - Ongoing fiscal measures aim to stabilize local government and real estate debts, with a focus on reducing systemic risks in the financial system[4] - Potential risks include rising trade tensions, which could impact economic stability[7]

Group 1 - The report highlights the approval of a resolution by the National People's Congress to increase local government debt limits for replacing hidden debts, aligning with the long-term and systematic policy orientation emphasized in the Third Plenary Session [1][16][17] - The plan includes an increase of 6 trillion yuan in local government debt limits from 2024 to 2026, with an additional 800 billion yuan annually from new special bonds for five years, totaling 12 trillion yuan in incremental funds to alleviate hidden debt pressures [2][17][18] - The report anticipates that the issuance of 2 trillion yuan in special local government bonds will likely be completed within the year, supported by the People's Bank of China, which aims to minimize supply shocks in the bond market [3][18] Group 2 - The report indicates that the current leverage ratios for households and enterprises are at historically high levels, making it challenging to further increase investment returns without significant improvements [6][19] - It notes that while real estate policies have led to a recovery in sales, the impact on future investment may be limited due to strict control over new projects [6][19] - The report maintains a view of narrow fluctuations in the bond market, with expectations for the 10-year government bond yield to oscillate between 2.10% and 2.20% [20] Group 3 - The report discusses the implications of the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut, suggesting that the policy rate may eventually drop to 4%, depending on inflation trends [7][21][24] - It emphasizes that the current economic conditions in the U.S. are stable, with no immediate plans for rate hikes, and that the market's previous expectations for aggressive rate cuts may have been overly optimistic [8][21][24] - The report also highlights the potential for a recovery in the yield curve as recession risks decrease, indicating a more favorable outlook for U.S. Treasury yields [13][26] Group 4 - The report notes that the Chinese small and medium-sized enterprise development index rose by 0.3 points in October, indicating improved business conditions and a positive outlook for the sector [14][15] - It highlights the significant growth in the new energy vehicle sector, with production and sales increasing by 48% and 49.6% year-on-year in October, respectively [15] - The report mentions that the A-share market's margin trading balance has returned to over 1.8 trillion yuan, reflecting increased investor confidence [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - New home sales are showing signs of recovery, while second-hand home sales continue to grow. The report highlights a shift in central government policy from stabilization to proactive support for the real estate market, suggesting that future policies will be more aggressive and sustained [2][1]. - The report notes that the cumulative sales area of new homes in 24 cities from January 1 to November 10 has a year-on-year decline of 17.95%, but the monthly cumulative sales area shows a year-on-year increase of 12.70% [1]. - For second-hand homes, the cumulative sales area in 10 cities from January 1 to November 10 has a year-on-year growth of 6.68%, with a monthly cumulative growth of 14.20% [1]. Summary by Sections Sales Data - The new home sales area for the week of November 4 to November 10 in 24 cities was 316.1 million square meters, down from 436.1 million square meters the previous week [1]. - The cumulative sales area of new homes in 24 cities for the year shows a year-on-year decline of 17.95%, while the cumulative sales area for the month shows a year-on-year increase of 12.70% [1]. - The second-hand home sales area for the same week in 10 cities was 146.9 million square meters, compared to 151.1 million square meters the previous week [1]. Policy Developments - A meeting was held by the Financial Regulatory Bureau and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development to expand the "white list" project for real estate financing, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing the market and ensuring housing delivery [1]. - The report mentions that various local governments are implementing policies to support the real estate market, such as adjusting housing loan policies and increasing loan limits for families [1][2]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the real estate sector is experiencing a more positive and sustained policy push from both supply and demand sides, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the sector [2].

Investment Rating - The report rates the intelligent driving chip industry as "positive" based on its expected performance relative to market benchmarks [64]. Core Insights - The intelligent driving chip industry is poised for rapid development due to ongoing technological advancements and increasing market penetration of autonomous vehicles [7][55]. - The global penetration rate of autonomous passenger vehicles reached 69.8% in 2023, with projections indicating it will rise to 87.9% by 2028 [37]. - The Chinese automotive-grade SoC market is expected to grow from 26.7 billion RMB in 2023 to 102 billion RMB by 2028, indicating a significant growth trajectory [38]. Summary by Sections Q1: What is Intelligent Driving Chip? - Intelligent driving chips include MCU and SoC, with SoC being the mainstream due to its integration of multiple components into a single chip, enhancing performance and efficiency [6][10]. Q2: Advantages and Challenges of Intelligent Driving SoC Chips - Advantages of SoC include reduced size, lower costs, low power consumption, and enhanced system functionality [15]. - Challenges include manufacturing, packaging, and testing bottlenecks that need to be addressed for further development [16]. Q3: Trends in Intelligent Driving Chips - The transition from MCU to SoC is ongoing, with SoC expected to meet the increasing computational demands of higher levels of autonomous driving [7][24]. - The report highlights the importance of software and hardware integration for the advancement of intelligent driving systems [33]. Q4: Market Space and Competitive Landscape of Intelligent Driving Chips - The global sales of autonomous passenger vehicles are projected to reach 68.8 million units by 2028, with significant growth in China [37]. - The report notes that the domestic SoC market participants currently hold only 7.6% market share, indicating substantial room for growth in domestic production [40]. Q5: Beneficiaries of Intelligent Driving SoC Development - The production segment is expected to benefit significantly, with domestic suppliers likely to emerge as key players due to their competitive advantages [48]. - Companies such as Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame Intelligence, and others are identified as potential beneficiaries of the growth in the intelligent driving chip sector [55].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Poly Developments [1]. Core Views - Poly Developments maintains a strong position as an industry leader, focusing on a "central city + urban cluster" strategy to deepen its market presence [2][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 346.83 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 23.4%, and its real estate business generated 322.5 billion yuan, growing by 25.7% [1][16]. - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a signed sales amount of 173.34 billion yuan, although this represented a year-on-year decline of 26.8% [2][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Poly Developments primarily engages in real estate investment and development, with a business model that includes property services and financial services [4][11]. - The company has maintained its status as the leading central enterprise in the real estate sector for 15 consecutive years [4]. Strategy and Management - The company adheres to a forward-looking strategic planning approach, which has guided its operations through various economic cycles [16][22]. - The strategic focus has evolved through three major phases since 2002, adapting to market conditions and opportunities [20][21]. Main Business Operations - The "central city + urban cluster" strategy has led to a significant increase in market share, with the sales market share rising from 2.94% in 2021 to 3.68% in the first half of 2024 [2][6]. - The company has effectively controlled its investment pace, with land acquisition intensity dropping to 7.3% in the first half of 2024, while focusing on high-energy cities [2][8]. Financial Overview - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 11.04 billion, 11.55 billion, and 13.17 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.92, 0.97, and 1.10 yuan [3][6]. - The company’s financial structure remains robust, with a net debt ratio of 66.0% as of the third quarter of 2024, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4][5]. Core Views - The acquisition of a 55% stake in Henan Yuexiu Pinglin Expressway Co., Ltd. for 758 million yuan is expected to significantly enhance the company's performance, with an internal rate of return of 9.2% [1][2][3]. - The Pinglin Expressway is strategically located as part of the G36 Ningluo Expressway, serving as a major logistics corridor connecting various regions [1]. - The company plans to sell a 60% stake in Tianjin Jinxiong Expressway for no less than 191 million yuan, which is expected to generate one-time gains and improve net profit in the year of sale [4]. Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The acquisition price of 758 million yuan represents a 3.6% discount to the market valuation of 787 million yuan, indicating a reasonable purchase price [1][2]. - The Pinglin Expressway has a total length of 106.45 kilometers and a remaining toll collection period of approximately 9 years [1]. Financial Performance - The Pinglin Expressway generated revenue of 482 million yuan and a net profit of 119 million yuan from its establishment until the end of 2023, with a stable profit outlook [3]. - For the first seven months of 2024, the expressway achieved revenue of 304 million yuan and a net profit of 80 million yuan, suggesting a projected annual net profit contribution of approximately 76 million yuan to the company post-acquisition [3]. Profit Forecast and Recommendations - The company’s net profit is projected to be 656 million yuan, 738 million yuan, and 769 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.39, 0.44, and 0.46 yuan [4][7]. - The report anticipates that the completion of the acquisition will further enhance earnings in 2025 and beyond [4].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking industry [1] Core Views - The excessive competition in the deposit and loan markets is expected to ease, and the net interest margin (NIM) is projected to stabilize gradually [2] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans in September decreased by 12bp and 14bp to 3.51% and 3.31%, respectively, reaching historical lows [2] - The central bank believes that the NIM is a significant constraint on monetary policy space, and future policies may guide financial institutions to enhance the linkage between asset and liability interest rate adjustments to maintain a reasonable NIM level [2] - The M1 statistical caliber may be revised, and the role of monetary aggregates in indicating economic activity is declining [3] - The banking sector is in a comfortable stage for allocation, with low valuations, high and stable dividend yields, and most negative factors already priced in [3] Industry Overview - The banking industry has 48 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 12,465.579 billion yuan, up 12.68% year-on-year [1] - The circulating market capitalization is 8,567.236 billion yuan, an increase of 10.75% year-on-year [1] - The industry's average price-to-earnings ratio is 5.94 [1] Investment Strategy - Short-term focus on cyclical and high-growth stocks, particularly leading banks in strong economic regions such as Ningbo Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Changshu Bank [3] - Long-term focus on stable high-dividend stocks, especially state-owned banks, as the fiscal plan to issue special treasury bonds to supplement their core tier-1 capital will enhance the stability and sustainability of future dividends [3] Future Industry Events - Mid-November: Release of October social financing and financial data [4]

Macro Analysis - The economic fundamentals are expected to improve in stages, with consumption data likely to show improvement in Q4 due to the implementation of consumption stimulus policies [1] - Current fiscal policies focus on local government debt reduction, alleviating fiscal pressure and creating space for economic development [1] - The Minister of Finance has indicated a rapid increase in bond issuance to quickly generate physical work volume, making a GDP rebound in Q4 a high probability event [1] - The upcoming National People's Congress meeting in early November is a key date to watch for potential fiscal stimulus policies [1][21] A-Share Strategy - The A-share market is currently in the second phase of a bull market, characterized by strong fluctuations and a recovery in market confidence [2] - The market is experiencing healthy rotation among sectors, with a focus on restructuring and technology, leading to good participation and profit-making effects [2] - The upcoming U.S. election results and the National People's Congress meeting are expected to reduce market uncertainties, supporting stable industry development [2] Bond Market - The bond market is anticipated to experience range-bound fluctuations, with low interest rates required due to unstable confidence and insufficient demand [3] - Short-term opportunities are favored, particularly in interbank certificates of deposit and short-duration credit varieties [3] - The expected yield range for 10Y and 30Y government bonds is approximately 2.10%-2.20% and 2.25%-2.35% respectively [3] Airborne Imaging Industry - Airborne imaging is a non-contact imaging technology that does not require a medium for image formation, utilizing flat lenses and various advanced techniques [30] - Compared to holographic projection, airborne imaging has advantages in application principles, lack of medium, and key technologies [30][31] - The technology is expected to see growth in various applications, including home, exhibition, automotive, medical, and educational sectors [31] - The market for smart cockpit solutions incorporating airborne imaging technology is projected to reach 212.7 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 17% [32] Food and Beverage Industry - The white liquor sector is facing pressure in Q3 2024, with overall performance impacted by weak demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival [26] - The industry is expected to recover in Q4, with economic stimulus policies likely to enhance consumer demand [27] - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies with increasing market share, such as Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye [28]

东兴证券研究报告 首席周观点：2024年第45周 P1 首席周观点：2024 年第 45 周2024 年 11 月 8 日 首席观点 周度观点 康明怡 | 东兴证券宏观分析师 S1480519090001，021-25102911，kangmy@dxzq.net.cn 宏观：特朗普回归，美国通胀路径并不明确 特朗普再次当选表明美国社会对通胀和移民容忍度降低。通胀是民主党在选情中最大的软肋， 实际生活成本的通胀压力可能并不与宏观数据一致。在没有出现失业率攀升经济衰退的背景 下，当权党派输掉竞选的情况比较少见。特朗普再次当选，传统蓝州民主党得票率也不及传 统红州共和党得票率，形成"红潮"，共和党取得参议院主导地位，这反映了美国社会生态变 化，促使美国从自由主义再次转向保守，回归"常识"。 特朗普政策推行阻力较小。由于共和党赢得参议院，特朗普政策落地概率提高，如对外关税、 对内减税、减少监管等会进一步加强。马斯克的加入可能对联邦政府改革带来新的变数，政 策可能更加务实，注重效果。但在特朗普第一任期内，不乏有企业界的高管加入，也不乏有 短期内离职的情况。 货币政策取决于通胀，但未来通胀压力并不明确。尽管市场认为特朗普 ...

宏 观 研 究 2024 年 11 月 8 日 宏观经济 事件点评 分析师 康明怡 电话：021-25102911 邮箱：kangmy@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480519090001 未来通胀路径并不一定上行，降息并未结 束 ——11 月美国 FOMC 点评 事件： 美联储降息 25bp，联邦利率从 4.75%~5%降至 4. 5%~4.75%。 主要观点： 1、 鲍威尔认为当前美国经济和就业处于刚刚好的位置，加息没有进入视野，政策利率水平仍处于限制区域。 2、 未来通胀路径并不一定上行，政策利率最终仍有可能降至 4%，但不排除节奏上有所调整。 3、 美国十年期国债利率维持上限 4.6~4.85%，模型不支持突破 5%，期限利差倒挂有望完全修复。 4、 维持美股中性略偏积极，即长线仓位不变，大选后短线仓位可以尝试。 鲍威尔认为美国当前经济和就业处于刚刚好的位置，加息没有进入视野，政策利率仍处于限制区域。记者会聚焦 12 月是否 继续降息，以及明年加息的可能。鲍威尔表示未来的降息节奏将保持灵活，不想太快也不想太慢。他看到经济下行的风险有 所降低，虽然近期 CPI 数据略高于预期，但整体尚可。 ...