Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for the food and beverage sector is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The white liquor sector's performance in Q3 2024 has been under pressure due to weakened demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival, with revenue and profit growth rates declining compared to the previous quarter. High-end liquor remains stable, while mid-range and real estate liquor show increasing performance divergence. The recovery trend in the white liquor industry is expected to be validated during the upcoming Spring Festival [2][9] - Economic stimulus policies are anticipated to lead to a turning point for the food and beverage industry, with demand expected to improve in the coming months. The Spring Festival is seen as a critical period for verifying changes in industry prosperity [3][10] - Companies with increasing market share, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, are recommended for investment as demand improves and valuations recover [3][10] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry consists of 126 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of approximately 48,728.19 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 47,283.13 billion yuan. The average price-to-earnings ratio for the industry is 21.84 [1] Market Performance - Weekly performance across sub-sectors shows: Other Foods +5.50%, Dairy +4.05%, Seasoning and Fermented Products +3.97%, White Liquor -0.05%, Meat Products -0.31%, Beer -0.49%, Yellow Wine (Yangtze) -1.16%, Soft Drinks -2.51%, Other Alcoholic Beverages -3.20% [4][11] - In the liquor sector, the top five performing companies were: Lanzhou Yellow River +16.84%, Huangtai Liquor +15.06%, Shui Jing Fang +9.10%, Hainan Coconut Island +8.49%, Shanxi Fenjiu +7.06%. The bottom five were: Weilang Co. -9.84%, Yingjia Gongjiu -7.84%, Kouzi Jiu -7.38%, Yanghe Co. -6.74%, Qingdao Beer -6.27% [4][12] Company Performance - Notable company earnings reports include: - Anqi Yeast: Revenue of 10.912 billion yuan, up 13.05% YoY [17] - Hengshun Vinegar: Revenue of 1.531 billion yuan, down 6.51% YoY [18] - Water Well Square: Revenue of 3.788 billion yuan, up 5.56% YoY [19] - Shanxi Fenjiu: Revenue of 31.358 billion yuan, up 17.25% YoY [19] - Yili Group: Revenue of 89.039 billion yuan, down 8.59% YoY [21] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include shareholder meetings and stock issuance for various companies, which may impact market dynamics [6][24]

行 业 研 究 分析师：刘嘉玮 010-66554043 liujw_yjs@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号： S1480519050001 非银行金融行业：上交所 10 月新开 户数创年内新高，增量资金有望持 续进场 事件：近日，上交所披露 2024 年 1-10 月 A 股、B 股和基金的开户情况。其中， 10 月单月 A 股开户数达到 684.68 万户，B 股开户数为 0.07 万户，基金开户 数为 54.65 万户。 点评： 从 10 月单月数据看，投资者开户数达到年内高点。上交所 10 月单月 A 股开 户数达到 684.68 万户，环比增长 275%；B 股开户数为 0.07 万户，环比增长 133%；基金开户数为 54.65 万户，环比增长 139%。各统计项的增速均较 9 月进一步上升。从细分数据看，10 月新开户数主要由个人投资者贡献，其中 机构投资者开立股票账户总量和开立 A 股账户数量环比增长约 25%，均远低 于个人投资者股票和 A 股账户开户数增速（275%）。此外，10 月机构投资者 开立股票和 A 股账户数量均低于 1 月和 3 月水平，而个人投资者开立股票和 A 股账户 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the gold industry for November 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The gold market continues to exhibit strong return characteristics, with the price of gold reaching a historical high of $2,734 per ounce by the end of October 2024, reflecting a 32.2% increase from the beginning of the year [4][15]. - The report emphasizes the structural bull market in the gold industry, driven by factors such as geopolitical tensions, inflation, and liquidity conditions, which enhance the asset's hedging properties [4][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Strong Return Characteristics - The gold market in 2024 shows a robust return profile, with gold and RMB-denominated gold returns reaching 29.11% and 27.19% respectively, outperforming major asset classes [4][15]. - The report highlights that gold has provided excess returns compared to Brent crude oil, offshore RMB, the US dollar index, and the S&P 500, indicating its increased value as a hedge against risks and inflation [4][15]. 2. Factors Driving Gold Prices 2.1 Gold's Hedging Properties - The report discusses the significant correlation between gold prices and geopolitical risks, noting that current global war risks are at a historical high, positively impacting gold pricing [5][17]. - The geopolitical risk index has reached levels not seen since the 1973 Middle East War, suggesting continued upward pressure on gold prices due to ongoing conflicts [5][17]. 2.2 Inflation Premium - Global inflation has shown strong persistence, with the average inflation rate rising from 2.6% (2010-2020) to 5.7% (2021-2024), coinciding with an increase in central bank gold reserves [6][27]. - The report indicates that the rising inflation data supports the effective elevation of gold's inflation premium [6][27]. 2.3 Exchange Rate Premium - The effectiveness of gold's exchange rate premium has been observed since 2020, with gold prices in G10 currencies reaching historical highs, reflecting the impact of global trade disputes on exchange rates [7][35]. - The report notes that the RMB gold premium may rise seasonally, particularly during the fourth quarter, aligning with traditional demand peaks [7][36]. 2.4 Interest Rate Cycle - The transition from a tightening to a loosening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is expected to boost gold prices, with historical data showing a 66.7% probability of price increases during previous rate-cutting cycles [8][37]. - The report estimates a potential maximum price increase for gold of 27.3%, targeting $3,315 per ounce [8][37]. 3. Related Companies - The report identifies several companies in the gold sector, including Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Shandong Gold International (000975.SZ), Yulong Shares (601028.SH), and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH) as key players in the industry [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Petty Co., Ltd. [3][4] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in performance, with a revenue of 1.323 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.34%, and a net profit of 155 million yuan, up 630.85% year-on-year [3][4] - The normalization of overseas orders and the release of production capacity in Cambodia have contributed to profit enhancement, with expectations for steady growth in overseas business revenue [3][4] - The domestic brand "Jueyan" has seen rapid growth, with significant sales during promotional events, indicating strong market acceptance [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 477 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.61%, and a net profit of 57 million yuan, up 319.98% year-on-year [3] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 28.01%, an increase of 1.66 percentage points compared to the mid-year report, while the net profit margin was 11.80%, up 0.15 percentage points [3] Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 187 million yuan, 229 million yuan, and 278 million yuan respectively, with EPS projected at 0.74 yuan, 0.90 yuan, and 1.10 yuan [4][5] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on its own brands, reducing reliance on agency business, and has successfully launched new products that cater to high-end consumer segments [4] - The "Jueyan" brand achieved over 10 million yuan in sales within the first four hours of a promotional event, ranking first in the pet snack category [4] Production Capacity - The company is expected to benefit from the ramp-up of production capacity in Southeast Asia and the launch of new production facilities in New Zealand, which will contribute to revenue growth [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strongly Recommend" rating for the company, with a positive outlook on its future performance [2][4] Core Views - The company's pig farming business has shown significant profit realization, with a notable improvement in Q3 2024 [2] - The seed business is expected to grow steadily, with both traditional and biotech breeding sectors showing promising potential [2] - The company's feed business, although under pressure, has shown signs of recovery in Q3, with a 7-8% increase in pig feed sales [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 7.047 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.73%, but net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 315.38% to 289 million yuan [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 20.142 billion yuan, down 15.83% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 114.69% to 133 million yuan [2] - The company's pig farming segment generated a profit of 200-250 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a slight increase in piglet costs but overall cost improvements [2] Business Segments - **Feed Business**: The company sold 3.9 million tons of feed in the first three quarters of 2024, a 9.30% year-on-year decrease, with pig feed sales dropping by 10.29% to 3.05 million tons [2] - **Pig Farming**: The company's pig inventory exceeded 4 million heads by the end of September 2024, with a target of 6 million heads for the full year [2] - **Seed Business**: The company sold over 20 million kilograms of seeds in the first three quarters of 2024, a 50% year-on-year increase, with contract liabilities for seed business reaching nearly 1.4 billion yuan [2] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 368 million yuan, 828.78 million yuan, and 1.07476 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.09 yuan, 0.18 yuan, and 0.24 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to be 55, 27, and 21 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] Market Data - The company's 52-week stock price range is between 3.75 yuan and 7.35 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 21.229 billion yuan [4] - The company's total shares outstanding are 432.372 million, with all shares being tradable A-shares [4]

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for Trump's re-election in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, indicating a shift in American society towards conservatism and a decrease in tolerance for inflation and immigration issues [1][2] - Trump's policies are expected to face less resistance due to the Republican control of the Senate, which may lead to increased tariffs, tax cuts, and reduced regulations [1][2] - The report suggests that the U.S. economy may experience a return of manufacturing, particularly in high-margin sectors such as semiconductors, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, while low-end manufacturing may not see a significant return [7][3] Economic Policy and Inflation - Future monetary policy will depend on inflation pressures, with historical examples indicating that interest rate adjustments are tied to economic fundamentals and inflation trends [2] - Trump's return may lower the tolerance for inflation, and while his tariff policies could create supply chain instability, they may also lead to increased domestic demand if immigration policies reduce the workforce [2][3] Market Reactions and Investment Strategies - The report indicates that the capital markets generally favor certainty, and the Republican control of the Senate may reduce economic policy uncertainty, leading to a neutral to slightly positive outlook for U.S. equities [7][8] - A strong market rotation is expected, with sectors such as technology, consumer goods, and cyclical industries likely to perform well as the economy stabilizes [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors that are likely to benefit from domestic policy changes, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, while maintaining a cautious stance on export-oriented industries [14][15] Company-Specific Insights - The report discusses specific companies such as 福昕软件 (Foxit Software) and 中科曙光 (Zhongke Shuguang), highlighting their financial performance and growth potential in the context of the broader economic environment [20][24] - 福昕软件 is noted for its transition to a subscription model, which has led to a significant increase in recurring revenue, while 中科曙光 is recognized for its stable performance amid growing demand for domestic computing power [20][24] Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the report suggests that the U.S. economic landscape is poised for changes that could impact various sectors, with a focus on domestic policy and its implications for investment strategies [14][15]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market is expected to maintain a strong upward trend following the U.S. election results, which have reduced uncertainty factors[2] - The potential impact of increased tariffs on Chinese goods by the new U.S. administration could affect Chinese exports by approximately 10%, translating to a GDP impact of 1-2%[2] - The market is likely to experience a strong performance driven by domestic monetary and fiscal policies, with significant policy announcements anticipated in December[3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The index is currently in a strong oscillation phase, with high trading volumes expected as policies are implemented[4] - Investment focus should shift towards consumer sectors, cyclical stocks, and areas related to self-sufficiency, particularly in technology and consumption[4] - Caution is advised regarding export-oriented sectors due to potential pressures from U.S. policies, while maintaining a cautiously optimistic view on the export chain[4]

Economic Outlook - The economic fundamentals are expected to improve in the short term, with consumption stimulus policies likely to enhance Q4 consumption data[2] - The current fiscal policy focuses on local government debt reduction, alleviating fiscal pressure and creating space for economic development[2] - The finance minister has indicated a faster pace of bond issuance, aiming to quickly generate tangible work output, making a GDP rebound in Q4 a high probability event[2] Market Analysis - The A-share market is currently in the second phase of a bull market, characterized by a strong oscillation without sustained downward pressure[3] - Market confidence is recovering, with active participation and a favorable rotation among sectors, particularly in restructuring and technology[3] - The upcoming U.S. election results may introduce volatility, but the overall strong oscillation pattern of the index is expected to remain unchanged[3] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is anticipated to experience range-bound fluctuations, with low interest rates required to stabilize confidence and address insufficient demand[4] - The expected core yield range for 10Y and 30Y government bonds is approximately 2.10%-2.20% and 2.25%-2.35%, respectively[4] U.S. Market Perspective - The U.S. economy is not expected to face significant recession risks in the near term, with traditional consumption peaks in Q3 and Q4[5] - The U.S. stock market is showing strong performance, with major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increasing by 5% and 8% respectively in recent months[5] Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices are expected to rise due to structural supply constraints, while copper consumption is projected to increase as financing conditions improve[5] - The report suggests a cautious yet optimistic view on A-shares, with a recommendation to overweight A-shares and maintain a watchful stance on commodities like gold and copper[5]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 沉趋势——2024 年三季报点评（20241031） 事件：近期，公司发布 2024 年三季度报告。前三季度，公司实现营业收入 36.27 亿元，同比增长 10.90%；归属于母公司所有者净利润 10.40 亿元，同 比增长 16.41%；归属于母公司所有者扣除非经常性损益净利润 9.91 亿元， 同比增长15.16%。单三季度，公司实现营业收入12.14亿元，同比增长10.53%； 实现归母净利润 3.18 亿元，同比增长 8.33%。 业绩符合预期，各项业务稳健增长。1）整体来看，单三季度公司实现营业收 入 12.14 亿元，同比增长 10.53%；实现归母净利润 3.18 亿元，同比增长 8.33%。 公司业绩在外部压力下仍保持稳健增长，彰显经营实力。2）分业务收入来看， 订阅业务稳健增长，授权业务企稳回暖。报告期内，国内个人办公服务订阅 业务收入 7.62 亿元，同比增长 17.24%；国内机构订阅及服务业务收入 2.48 亿元，同比增长 0.02%；国内机构授权业务收入 1.43 亿元，同比增长 8.97%。 个人业 ...

Group 1: Election Outcome and Political Implications - Trump's re-election indicates a decreased tolerance for inflation and immigration issues among the American public[2] - The Democratic Party's vote share in traditional blue states fell below that of the Republican Party in red states, indicating a "red wave" and a shift towards conservatism[2] - The Republican Party's control of the Senate enhances the likelihood of Trump's policies being implemented, including tariffs and tax cuts[2] Group 2: Economic and Monetary Policy - Future inflation pressure remains uncertain, despite expectations that Trump may exert pressure on the Federal Reserve[3] - Historical examples suggest that if inflation trends remain stable, policy rates could potentially drop to 4%[3] - Trump's immigration policies may lead to a reduction in immigration numbers, which could alleviate some domestic demand pressures[3] Group 3: Foreign Policy and Trade - Trump's trade policies introduce significant uncertainty for the global economy, particularly regarding tariffs[4] - Manufacturing is expected to return to the U.S., focusing on high-margin sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, rather than low-end manufacturing[4] Group 4: Market Reactions - The election outcome is favorable for capital markets, reducing uncertainty around economic policies[5] - Short-term positions in U.S. equities may be considered, while long-term positions remain neutral to slightly positive[5]