证券行业：行业经营层面存在不确定性， 静待政策指明方向 2024 年 8 月 1 日 看好/维持 非银行金融 行业报告 ——证券行业 2024 中期策略 分析师 刘嘉玮 电话：010-66554043 邮箱：liujw_yjs@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480519050001 投资摘要： 严监管趋势持续，券商投行、信用等多业务遭受影响，证券板块上半年表现跑输大市。截至 6 月 30 日，上证综指、上证 50、 沪深 300 和申万二级证券指数年内涨幅分别为-0.25%、2.95%、0.89%和-13.38%，证券板块表现跑输市场核心宽基指数。 政策层面延续严监管态势，优化资本市场环境&规范市场参与主体行为仍是核心主线。作为连接投资者、资本市场和实体经 济的重要桥梁，证券公司业绩的外生因素颇多，各项业务均受到宏观经济环境、政策、流动性和市场行情的影响。年初以来， 监管政策向规范资本市场各类主体行为倾斜，严监管成为政策主旋律。新"国九条"从上市公司发行全流程层面从严监管， 优化资本市场环境。而对融券、转融券业务的限制加强以及对高频量化交易的从严监管体现出监管层对交易公平，维护中小 投资者利益的重 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the real estate industry for 2024 [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry is expected to build a bottom and nurture a recovery in 2024, with a projected total sales area of 957 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3% [1][4] - The sales amount for 2024 is estimated at 9.58 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.9% [1][4] - The report highlights that the demand side shows signs of stabilization, while the supply side continues to face significant investment pressure [2][3] Summary by Sections Sales - The total sales area for commercial housing in 2024 is projected to be 957 million square meters, down 14.3% year-on-year [1][4] - The cumulative sales area for the first half of 2024 is expected to show a year-on-year decline of 19.0% [1][8] - The average sales price for commercial housing in 2024 is forecasted to be 10,004 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year [1][16] Supply - New construction area is expected to be 769 million square meters in 2024, down 19.4% year-on-year [2][21] - The total construction area at the end of 2024 is projected to be 7.303 billion square meters, a decrease of 12.9% year-on-year [2][28] - The completion area for 2024 is estimated at 785 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.4% [2][35] Investment - The total real estate development investment for 2024 is projected to be 937 billion yuan, down 15.5% year-on-year [2][46] - The cumulative investment amount for the first half of 2024 is expected to show a year-on-year decline of 10.1% [2][42] Housing Prices - The report indicates that second-hand housing prices in lower-tier cities have undergone significant adjustments, while the new housing market in core cities is expected to stabilize first [2][6] - As of June 2024, the price index for newly built residential properties in 70 major cities has decreased for 13 consecutive months, while the second-hand housing price index has declined for 14 consecutive months [2][46] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that core cities are experiencing a structural imbalance in supply rather than a lack of demand, which may benefit quality real estate companies focused on these areas [3][6] - The ongoing demand from first-time buyers and the increasing supply of quality second-hand homes are expected to sustain transaction volumes in the second-hand housing market [3][6]

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry Insights - The establishment of the "Big Fund Phase III" with a registered capital of 344 billion yuan aims to support the development of AI chips, advanced semiconductor equipment, and semiconductor materials, with a focus on addressing bottlenecks in the semiconductor industry [1] - Compared to previous phases, Phase III has significantly increased its registered capital and extended its investment duration to 15 years, indicating a long-term commitment to the semiconductor sector [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of learning from Japan and South Korea's successful "government + industry" models to enhance China's semiconductor industry, particularly in overcoming trade frictions and technology blockades [2] Group 2: Investment Strategies in Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry is viewed as a critical national asset requiring continuous support in technology, talent, and capital, with a focus on reverse-cycle investments to enhance the competitiveness of leading companies [2] - Recommended investment targets include companies benefiting from the semiconductor industry's transition, such as SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and others involved in upstream materials and equipment [2] - The report highlights the AI chip sector and advanced packaging as promising investment areas, with specific companies identified for potential growth [2] Group 3: Communication Industry Developments - The communication sector has shown strong performance, with the communication index rising by 3.7% in the first half of 2024, ranking sixth among 31 primary industries [3] - The report anticipates significant growth in satellite internet, particularly with the launch of domestic GW constellations and G60 Starlink, which are expected to enhance broadband connectivity in underserved areas [3][4] - Key technologies in satellite internet include core networks, base stations in space, phased array antennas, and laser inter-satellite links, which are crucial for the development of this sector [4] Group 4: Investment Outlook for Communication Sector - The report suggests focusing on satellite internet core component manufacturers as investment opportunities, given the expected industrialization of satellite internet in the second half of 2024 [4] - The communication industry is expected to see stable demand for optical fiber and cable, while AI-driven growth in optical modules and data centers is anticipated [4] - The report identifies specific companies in the satellite internet supply chain that are likely to benefit from the upcoming launches and technological advancements [4] Group 5: Coal Industry Performance - The coal sector has shown strong performance with a cumulative increase of 11.96% in the first half of 2024, outperforming the broader market [9] - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to stabilize due to long-term contracts and increasing demand for coal-fired power generation [9][10] - The coal industry is characterized by low valuations and high dividend yields, making it an attractive investment opportunity in the current economic environment [10] Group 6: Transportation Industry Insights - The transportation sector has experienced a modest increase of approximately 5.6% in the first half of 2024, with infrastructure-related stocks performing well [11] - The report highlights the importance of high-dividend stocks in the transportation sector, particularly in the express delivery and highway segments [12] - It anticipates a gradual improvement in the express delivery market as price wars are expected to ease, benefiting leading companies in the sector [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry in 2024, specifically highlighting the recovery of the breeding chain and the rise of new pet consumption [1]. Core Insights - The supply-demand dynamics are expected to support a continued upward trend in pork prices in the second half of the year, with supply constraints and improved demand during the consumption peak season [9][21]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical price increase in the sector, with profitability beginning to materialize, and recommends focusing on leading companies in the pig farming sector such as Muyuan Foods and others [2][25]. - The poultry farming segment is experiencing structural shortages in white chickens, while yellow chicken profitability is improving, indicating a positive outlook for the meat chicken industry chain [33]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Farming - Supply-demand dynamics are expected to support pork prices, with a forecast of continued price increases in the second half of the year due to supply constraints and improved demand [9][21]. - The report highlights that the breeding stock of sows has been decreasing, with a significant reduction from the peak in 2022, which is expected to impact pork supply [9][11]. - Key recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and others, which are expected to benefit from the rising pork prices [2][25]. 2. Poultry Farming - The white chicken segment is facing structural shortages due to a lack of breeding stock, while the yellow chicken segment is seeing profitability improvements [33]. - The report suggests focusing on upstream suppliers of parent and commercial chicken breeds, as well as commercial meat chicken farming enterprises [33]. 3. Animal Health - The recovery in farming profitability is anticipated to boost the animal health industry, with increased demand for veterinary products, particularly for pigs [2][3]. - Long-term growth is expected from the introduction of new vaccine products, with leading companies in research and development being recommended [2]. 4. Feed - Demand for pig feed is expected to rebound, while aquaculture feed is also projected to improve due to a recovery in raw material prices [2]. - Companies with strong formulation development and cost control capabilities are expected to stand out in the competitive landscape [2]. 5. Crop Seed Industry - The report notes a stable supply of staple grains in 2024, with a focus on the acceleration of biotechnology breeding and the impact of La Niña weather patterns on crops [3]. - Companies that have early investments in genetically modified seeds and leading technology are recommended for monitoring [3]. 6. Pet Industry - The pet food export business is experiencing rapid growth, and domestic market consumption remains resilient, with local brands gaining market share [3]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the pet food sector that are adapting to health and refinement trends in consumer preferences [3].

DONGXING SECURITIES 商社行业2024年中期策略：关注国内高 性价比消费和品牌出海 | --- | |--------------------| | 2024 年 7 月 31 日 | | /维持 | | 行业报告 | 分析师 刘田田 电话：010-66554038 邮箱：liutt@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480521010001 分析师 魏宇萌 电话：010-66555446 邮箱：weiym@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480522090004 投资摘要： 观点综述：2024 年上半年消费需求整体偏弱，消费能力和消费信心均尚有较大恢复空间。在消费能力不足的背景下，消费者 更加理性，高性价比消费趋势持续显现，线上消费仍旧好于线下消费行业。在此背景下，商社板块上半年整体走势较为一般， 但也有部分公司提前打造了品牌势能，或受益于消费结构趋势变化，获得了较好的业绩和市场表现。展望下半年，我们认为 国内消费信心的恢复需要较长时间的修复，居民商品消费将延续慢复苏的节奏，消费结构上更偏重于理性消费及性价比、实 用性。与此同时，海外消费相对较为坚挺，且库存水平降到较低位 ...

轻工纺服行业 2024 年中期策略：出口景 气有望延续，内需稳健关注行业格局 2024 年 7 月 31 日 看好/维持 轻工制造 行业报告 分析师 刘田田 电话：010-66554038 邮箱：liutt@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480521010001 分析师 沈逸伦 电话：010-66554044 邮箱：shenyl@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480523060001 投资摘要： 上半年出口订单景气度较好，出口轻工和纺织制造都值得持续关注。内需方面，地产行业在底部，品牌服装家纺等消费品的 销售整体稳健，我们认为结合目前的估值位置看，可以关注一些行业格局较好或者持续优化、业绩有保障、分红有保障的标 的，预计将会有不错的投资回报。 出口轻工：看好订单持续性，投资性价比提升。23 年 11 月起，轻工出口收入回暖明显，我们认为已走出去库存阶段。美国 大选变化提升加关税可能性，出口订单预期转向悲观。出口标的估值已回到高性价比位置，部分已至五年内最低水平，充分 反映悲观预期。美国零售商库存及库存销售比数据均回至健康水平，轻工出口企业订单恢复常态化水平，会有较强的持续性。 欧美需求 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the computer industry [1]. Core Insights - The computer sector has experienced a weak performance in the first half of the year, with a significant underperformance compared to the CSI 300 index, lagging by nearly 28 percentage points. Despite this, high-growth segments such as intelligent computing and smart transportation have shown promising structural trends [1][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on structural opportunities driven by policy and demand cycles in the second half of the year, with expectations of steady growth in the computer industry [2][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Review - The computer sector's performance has been heavily influenced by market sentiment, with the SW Computer Index down 27.61% year-to-date as of July 25, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.38%. This indicates a significant underperformance of 27.99% [8][11]. - The sector is characterized by a high beta and growth potential, primarily composed of small to mid-cap companies, which have been adversely affected by stricter market regulations and lower risk appetite [1][8]. Industry Outlook - The report identifies two main types of investment opportunities: those driven by technological changes or authoritative policies and those driven by market sentiment and sector-specific themes. The latter often leads to short-term gains in specific segments [21][24]. - The focus for the second half of the year should be on structural opportunities in intelligent computing, smart transportation, and smart driving, particularly in light of policy support and demand cycles [2][28]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends three main investment lines: 1. **Intelligent Computing**: Benefiting from policy support and the growth of AI applications, with a focus on companies like Zhongke Shuguang and Longxin Zhongke [2][28]. 2. **Smart Transportation**: With ongoing pilot projects and clear policy support, companies like Qianfang Technology and Wanjie Technology are expected to benefit [2][28]. 3. **Smart Driving**: The anticipated entry of Tesla's FSD in China and the growth of Robotaxi operations are expected to create a positive feedback loop for the industry [2][28]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Ratings - Companies such as Zhongke Chuangda, Longxin Zhongke, and Zhongke Shuguang are rated as "Strong Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth over the next few years [4]. - The report highlights the current low valuation levels of the computer sector, with PS and PE ratios at historical lows, indicating a high investment value [4][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, rating it as "promising" with a focus on undervaluation and high dividends [1]. Core Insights - The coal sector has shown strong performance in the first half of 2024, with a cumulative increase of 11.96% from the beginning of the year to June 28, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 11.07 percentage points, ranking second among 30 industry categories [6]. - The stability of coal prices is expected to enhance profitability in the second half of 2024, supported by the implementation of long-term coal contracts which have become more flexible and pragmatic compared to 2023 [2][9]. - The demand for coal remains robust, particularly for power generation, with an increase in electricity generation driving up coal demand [14]. - On the supply side, coal companies are unlikely to initiate a new capacity cycle due to limited capital expenditure on new mines, leading to a tighter supply situation [16][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - The coal sector has led in growth during the first half of 2024, achieving a stable absolute return [6]. 2. Fundamental Outlook - **Price Review**: Coal prices experienced a slight decline followed by a recovery, with prices moving from 923 CNY/ton at the beginning of the year to 849 CNY/ton by the end of June [8]. - **Long-term Contract Policy**: The new policy from the National Development and Reform Commission aims to stabilize coal prices, with a focus on increasing the coverage of long-term contracts [9][10]. - **Demand Side**: Coal remains the primary source of electricity generation, with a steady increase in power generation leading to higher coal demand [14]. - **Supply Side**: Coal companies are focusing on high dividends, limiting new capital expenditures and thus restricting supply growth [16]. - **Carbon Neutrality Policies**: New capacity approvals are strictly limited under carbon neutrality policies, maintaining a tight supply situation in the coal industry [27]. 3. Valuation Outlook - The coal sector is currently undervalued, with a PE ratio of 11.77 as of June 28, 2024, which is below the historical median of 13.53 [30][32]. - The PB ratio is also low at 1.59, indicating potential for value appreciation [32]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the coal sector's combination of low valuation and high dividends makes it an attractive investment opportunity. Specific stocks recommended include Shanxi Coking Coal, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and China Coal Energy [39].

电子行业：借鉴日韩"产、官、学"成功 经验，给大基金三期投资带来哪些启示？ 2024 年 7 月 31 日 看好/维持 电子 行业报告 ——海外硬科技龙头复盘研究系列之八 分析师 刘航 电话：021-25102913 邮箱：liuhang-yjs@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480522060001 投资摘要： 大基金三期相对于此前两期，有何不同？2024 年 5 月 24 日国家集成电路产业投资基金三期（简称"大基金三期"）成立， 注册资本为 3440 亿元，支持人工智能芯片、先进半导体设备和半导体材料等领域的发展。与大基金一期和二期相比，大基 金三期在注册资本有了显著提升。为了更好地适应集成电路产业的特点，大基金三期在投资期限上进行了显著调整，将存续 期限延长至 15 年。大基金二期相比于一期基金，在投资领域上更加多元化，重点解决行业卡脖子问题。通过支持龙头公司 和提高国产替代化率，大基金二期有力推动了中国集成电路产业的自主创新和高质量发展。随着大基金三期的成立，投资领 域将进一步拓宽，增加对半导体产业链卡脖子环节的支持的同时，AI 相关芯片、算力芯片等或成为大基金三期投资的重点。 大基金通 ...

通信行业 2024 年半年度投资策略：GW 星 座与 G60 星链进入发射阶段，看好卫星制 造核心部件供应商 2024 年 7 月 30 日 看好/维持 通信 行业报告 分析师 石伟晶 电话：021-25102907 邮箱：shi_wj@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480518080001 投资摘要： 上半年通信板块涨幅处于上游位置。上半年，A 股投资风格呈现典型的哑铃特征，一方面银行、煤炭、公 共事业、石油石化等红利板块领涨显著；另一方面，市场关注有政策刺激、业绩兑现度高的大市值标的， 家用电器、通信等细分行业表现优异。2024 年年初至 6 月底，申万通信指数累计涨幅 3.7%，在 31 个一级 行业中排名第 6。 通信行业产业链可以划分为运营商主导投资建设的网络和算力产业链，具体包括 ICT、光纤光缆、光器件 光模块、IDC 等，以及通信网络与行业相结合的融合应用，具体包括物联网、车联网、工业互联网、企业 通信、卫星互联网等。我们看好下半年卫星互联网核心部件制造商投资机会。理由如下：从细分行业角度， 2024 年下半年国内 GW 星座与 G60 星链进入正式发射阶段，卫星互联网实现产业化落 ...