行 业 研 究 计算机行业：大模型、算力、政策 2024年2月22日 看好/维持 利好频出，AGI 行业持续发展 东 计算机 行业报告 兴 ——人工智能行业动态追踪 证 券 事件： 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 份 1）2 月 16 日，OpenAI 发布文生视频大模型 Sora，能够根据文本指令或静 无 资料来源：恒生聚源 态图像生成60s的视频； 有 行业基本资料 占比% 限 2）2月19日，国务院国资委召开“AI赋能 产业焕新”中央企业人工智能专 股票家数 274 5.94% 公 题推进会。会议认为，加快推动人工智能发展，是国资央企发挥功能使命，抢 行业市值(亿元) 28798.06 3.53% 司 抓战略机遇，培育新质生产力，推进高质量发展的必然要求； 证 流通市值(亿元) 23054.51 3.57% 3）2月22日，英伟达（NVDA.US）发布2024财年第四季度财报。第四季度 券 行业平均市盈率 159.93 / 英伟达营收 221 亿美元，环比增长 22%，同比增长 265%，市场预期 204.1 研 资料来源：恒生聚源、东兴证券研究所 亿美元；净利润123亿美元，环比增长33%，同比增长76 ...

行 业 研 究 农林牧渔行业：寒潮不改去化趋势， 2024年2月22日 看好/维持 持续推荐生猪养殖 东 农林牧渔 行业报告 兴 ——生猪养殖行业跟踪 证 券 事件：价格走势来看，截止 2 月 20 日，全国外三元生猪销售均价 14.29 元/ 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 公斤，15kg仔猪价格39.62元/公斤，生猪价格震荡下行，仔猪价格明显走高。 无 份 天气影响来看，中国气象局预计，2月17—22日有一次寒潮天气将自西向东、 有 自北向南影响我国，长江中下游及其以北地区将出现降雪或雨夹雪，华北、黄 限 资料来源：恒生聚源 淮、江淮及江汉等地有大到暴雪、局地大暴雪，河南、湖北、湖南、贵州等地 公 行业基本资料 占比% 将出现冻雨。 司 股票家数 100 2.17% 节后需求回落猪价走低，仔猪价格抬升预期有限。节后进入猪肉消费淡季，市 证 行业市值(亿元) 12229.45 1.5% 场需求惯性回落，居民以消耗节前存货为主；供给端节后养殖户和集团恢复正 券 流通市值(亿元) 8930.12 1.38% 研 常出栏，供需格局整体呈现供过于求，生猪价格弱势调整。年后是传统补栏旺 季，存在正常的补栏需求，且前期 ...

行 业 研 究 消费者服务行业：春节出游人次及 2024年2月22日 看好/维持 总收入恢复率达疫后最高，出行链 东 消费者服务 行业报告 兴 高景气持续验证 证 券 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 事件：根据文旅部测算，龙年春节假期 8天全国国内旅游出游4.74亿人次， 无 份 同比增长34.3%，按可比口径较2019年同期增长19.0%；国内游客出游总花 有 费6326.87亿元，同比增长47.3%，按可比口径较2019年同期增长7.7%； 行业基本资料 占比% 限 人均出游消费1335元，同比增长10%，恢复至2019年同期的90.5%。入出 公 股票家数 39 0.85% 境旅游约683万人次，其中出境游约360万人次，入境游约323万人次。 司 行业市值(亿元) 3811.0 0.47% 证 出游人次及总收入恢复率达疫后最高，人均消费环比略降。全国恢复率来看， 流通市值(亿元) 3453.13 0.54% 券 龙年春节假期期间，国内出游人次/收入/客单价分别恢复至 2019 年可比口径 行业平均市盈率 43.32 / 研 的 119%/107.7%/90.5%，较 24 元旦分别+9.6/+2.1/- ...

行 业 研 究 电子行业：顶层设计推动人工智能 2024年2月22日 看好/维持 产业发展，看好算力和 AI 应用板块 东 电子 行业报告 兴 证 事件： 未来3-6个月行业大事： 券 股 根据国资委官网披露的信息，2月19日，国资委召开“AI赋能产业焕新”中 无 资料来源：恒生聚源 份 央企业人工智能专题推进会，会议认为加快推动人工智能发展，是国资央企发 行业基本资料 占比% 有 挥功能使命，培育新质生产力，推进高质量发展的必然要求。 股票家数 346 7.5% 限 点评： 公 行业市值(亿元) 57354.73 7.04% 顶层设计推动人工智能产业发展，AI 产业有望迎来新的发展机遇。从具体层 司 流通市值(亿元) 47148.01 7.3% 面来看，顶层设计主要包括两点：（1）央企拥抱人工智能变革，把加快发展新 证 行业平均市盈率 46.17 / 一代人工智能摆在更加突出的位置，着力打造人工智能产业集群，加快构建数 券 资料来源：恒生聚源、东兴证券研究所 据驱动、人机协同、跨界融合、共创分享的智能经济形态。（2）加快建设一批 研 行业指数走势图 智能算力中心，开展AI+专项行动，构建一批产业多模态优质数 ...

行 业 研 究 航空机场 1 月数据点评：需求端触底 2024年2月22日 看好/维持 反弹，春运数据强劲 东 交通运输 行业报告 兴 证 事件：上市航司发布1月运营数据。民航业受春运的带动，走出了去年年末的 未来3-6个月行业大事： 券 谷底状态，国内与短途国际需求都有较明显的提升。 2024-3-10民航局公布2024年2月民航运行 股 数据 份 国内航线：运力投放与客座率双升，春运带动需求增长 2024-3-15起上市公司披露2024年2月运行 有 从国内航线的运力投放看，1 月各航司运力投放较去年 12 月显著增长，整体 数据 限 增幅超10%。几大航中，海航国内航线运力投放环比提升最大，高达约29%， 公 春节前后海南旅游需求的旺盛是主要原因。相比于三大航，吉祥与春秋环比的 行业基本资料 占比% 司 运力扩张并不明显，主要系去年11-12月两家中型航司保持了较为稳定的投放 股票家数 128 2.78% 证 水平，并未明显收缩运力。 行业市值(亿元) 29011.26 3.56% 券 客座率方面，1月上市航司客座率整体提升约1.8个百分点，上涨较明显，足 流通市值(亿元) 25107.33 3.89% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the photovoltaic industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [1]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry has recently seen a concentrated release of annual performance forecasts, with 27 companies reporting. Among these, 17 companies expect profit increases or continued profitability, while 10 anticipate declines or losses. The upstream sectors, including silicon materials and battery cells, are experiencing significant price drops, leading to reduced profitability, while the inverter and module sectors are performing relatively well [1][2]. - The report anticipates a challenging competitive environment for the photovoltaic industry in 2024, with expectations of further declines in profitability for integrated module companies in Q1 due to price drops from Q4. However, a recovery in demand is expected post-Chinese New Year, potentially leading to a bottoming out of profitability in Q1 and a rebound in Q2 [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecasts - In Q4, many photovoltaic companies reported significant declines in profits, with TCL Zhonghuan expected to incur a loss of 1.388 to 1.988 billion yuan, Trina Solar's net profit expected to drop by 51% to 87%, and JinkoSolar's net profit expected to decrease by 36% to 64% [1]. Investment Strategy - Despite intensified competition, global photovoltaic installations are expected to continue growing. The report suggests focusing on three main lines: 1) auxiliary material sectors with less impact from industry chain dynamics, such as Tongling Co., 2) integrated module leaders with stable cash flow, and 3) the energy storage PCS sector, particularly leading companies like Sungrow Power Supply and Hemaik Co. [2]. Key Company Ratings - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, with recommendations for Tongling Co., Sungrow Power Supply, and Hemaik Co. all rated as "Recommended" [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [10] Core Viewpoints - The company has demonstrated strong product development capabilities by obtaining a new utility model patent for a heat exchange component and heat exchanger, showcasing its ability to innovate in product design and manufacturing processes [9][10] - The company is actively expanding its product offerings in the automotive thermal management integration module sector, with successful design and prototype manufacturing of automotive CO2 heat pump systems [9] - The company's cold forging technology is noted for its efficiency and cost advantages, positioning it favorably within the industry as it expands into new applications in the new energy vehicle supply chain [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2002, specializes in precision cold-forged components primarily used in automotive and motorcycle engine valve mechanisms [9][11] - Recent developments include a focus on applying cold forging technology to new energy vehicle components, including battery system casings and electric drive transmission systems [9] Financial Forecasts - Projected net profits for 2023, 2024, and 2025 are approximately 175 million, 198 million, and 233 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.30, 1.47, and 1.72 yuan [10] - The expected PE ratios for the same years are 16, 14, and 12 times [10] Product Development - The newly patented heat exchanger technology reduces the number of welding points, improving production efficiency and lowering costs, which enhances the product's competitiveness in the market [9] - The company’s comprehensive layout of the cold forging industry chain, including raw materials and mold design, provides it with a leading advantage in the industry [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive/Maintain" as of February 20, 2024 [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that credit growth has started strong in January, with significant performance in the residential sector. The total social financing (TSF) increased by 6.5 trillion yuan in January, which is 506.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The year-on-year growth rate of TSF stock was 9.5% [1][6] - The report emphasizes that the structure of credit growth is favorable, with a notable increase in medium to long-term loans, which accounted for 80% of new RMB loans in January [2][6] - The report suggests that the ongoing policy support for economic growth and the relaxation of real estate financing policies could lead to a recovery in the sector's valuations [6] Summary by Sections Social Financing Data - As of the end of January, the TSF stock increased by 9.5% year-on-year, with a new addition of 6.5 trillion yuan, which is 506.1 billion yuan more than last year. The new RMB loans amounted to 4.84 trillion yuan, which is 913 billion yuan less than the previous year [1][10] - The report notes that off-balance-sheet financing added 600.8 billion yuan, with a significant increase in discounted bills and trust loans, while government bond net financing decreased [1][2] Credit Structure - The report indicates that the credit structure is improving, with new RMB loans of 4.92 trillion yuan in January, which is an increase of 200 billion yuan year-on-year. The residential loans saw a significant increase, particularly in short-term and medium to long-term loans [2][6] - Corporate loans decreased by 820 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in bill financing, but short-term and medium to long-term loans remained stable [2][6] Monetary Supply - The report states that M2 and M1 increased by 8.7% and 5.9% year-on-year, respectively, with M1 growth rebounding due to the effects of the Spring Festival [2][10] - The report highlights that the growth of M2-M1 spread has narrowed, indicating improved liquidity in the market [2][6] Future Industry Events - The report mentions that significant industry events to watch for in the next 3-6 months include the release of the official PMI data at the end of February [3]

公 司 研 究 广汽集团（601238.SH）：零售好于 2024年2月20日 强烈推荐/维持 批发，渠道库存下降 东 广汽集团 公司报告 兴 证 近日，广汽集团发布2024年1月产销快报：1月汽车产量为157,501辆，同 公司简介： 券 比增长22.71%；汽车销量为131,970辆，同比下降-10.18%。点评如下 公司是由广州汽车工业集团有限公司、万向 股 集团公司、中国机械工业集团公司等作为共 份 旗下车企零售均好于批发，渠道库存下降：广汽集团旗下车企零售端表现均好 同发起人，以发起方式设立的大型国有控股 有 于批发销量（公司公告销量）。据广汽集团公众号，广汽集团 1 月汽车终端销 股份制企业集团。主要业务包括乘用车、商 限 量为194423辆，同比增长45.3%，终端销量比批发量多62453辆，渠道整体 用车、摩托车、汽车零部件的研发、制造、 销售及售后服务，以及汽车相关产品进出口 公 库存下降。具体看，广汽丰田1月终端销量为 71875辆，同比增长 17.6%， 贸易，汽车租赁、二手车、物流、拆解、资 司 比批发量多20845辆；广汽本田1月终端销量为56802辆，同比增长41%， 源再生，汽车 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" indicating an expected performance that is stronger than the market benchmark index by more than 5% [15]. Core Insights - The central theme of the report emphasizes the focus on the quality and efficiency of credit allocation, with a continued downward trend in loan interest rates. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to balance the relationship between bond and credit markets while enhancing the efficiency of existing loans [2][3]. - The report highlights that the weighted average interest rate for new loans was 3.83% in December, down 31 basis points from the previous quarter, reflecting weak corporate financing demand. The report anticipates that loan rates will continue to decline steadily [2][3]. - The report suggests that the recent increase in social financing and credit aligns with seasonal patterns, but the sustainability of this growth remains to be observed. It recommends focusing on stocks with stable earnings, particularly state-owned banks with high dividends and high-growth regional banks [2][3]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Insights - The PBOC's report indicates a shift towards a more holistic approach to monetary policy, emphasizing the need to understand the new characteristics of credit supply and demand. It also discusses the importance of revitalizing existing loans through debt restructuring [2][3]. Loan Interest Rates - The report notes that the new loan interest rates have continued to decline, with corporate loans at 3.75% and personal housing loans at 3.97%. The expectation is for these rates to stabilize and decrease further due to market adjustments in deposit rates [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to consider stocks with more predictable earnings, particularly focusing on high-dividend state-owned banks and high-growth regional banks, as the economic recovery remains uncertain [2][3].