Group 1: Key Points on Trump's Interference with the Federal Reserve - Trump's interference in the Federal Reserve's independence is primarily through three methods: nominating a compliant Fed Chair, restructuring the Board of Governors, and intervening in the appointment of regional Fed presidents[1] - The new Fed Chair is expected to be nominated in November 2025 and take office in May 2026, potentially leading to a more dovish monetary policy stance[1] - With the new appointments, 4 out of 7 Fed governors may align with Trump's views, increasing his influence over monetary policy decisions[1] Group 2: Market Implications - The anticipated intervention could result in the Fed lowering interest rates more than the current market pricing of 3 cuts, potentially bringing the policy rate below the neutral level of 3%[1] - This shift may transition the U.S. economy from a soft landing to moderate expansion, impacting macroeconomic conditions positively[1] - The weakening of dollar interest rate expectations and increased credit risk could lead to lower 2-year Treasury yields and a declining dollar index[1] Group 3: Risks and Concerns - Potential risks include Trump's re-encounter with assassination attempts, resistance from existing Fed officials against his directives, and possible Republican losses in the midterm elections[1] - The independence of the Fed could be challenged, leading to increased uncertainty in monetary policy and affecting investor confidence in U.S. dollar assets[1]

Supply and Demand Analysis - In August, industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, down from 5.7% in July, while the service production index increased by 5.6%, down from 5.8%[4] - External demand weakened with exports growing by 4.4% year-on-year, down from 7.2% in July, and below the expected 5.9%[4] - Domestic demand also declined, with retail sales growing by 3.4%, unchanged from July, and below the expected 3.8%[4] - Fixed asset investment (FAI) showed a cumulative growth of 0.5%, down from 1.6% in July, with monthly growth dropping from -5.2% to -6.3%[6] Economic Outlook - The divergence between supply and demand is expected to lead to three outcomes: GDP growth will align more closely with supply data, with Q3 GDP growth projected around 5%[4] - Strong supply relative to weak demand may increase price pressures, necessitating stronger policy support for price recovery[4] - Historically, if demand does not strengthen, supply will follow suit, indicating greater pressure on Q4 GDP compared to Q3[4] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing remains a key driver of production resilience, with its added value growing by 9.3% year-on-year in August[4] - The restaurant sector showed a rebound in consumption, with retail sales in this category growing by 2.1%, up from 1.1% in July[5] - Fixed asset investment in infrastructure and real estate continued to decline, with infrastructure investment dropping from -1.9% to -6.4% and real estate investment from -17.2% to -19.4%[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector has shown a 2.45% increase in the past week, outperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices by 1.07% and 0.33%, respectively [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand changes and anticipates a recovery in the construction materials market due to government policies aimed at boosting consumption [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The cement market price is currently at 344.0 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.3 CNY/ton but a year-on-year decrease of 40.7 CNY/ton [3][18] - The average cement inventory level among sample enterprises is 65.0%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous week [23] 2. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals 2.1 Cement - The cement market is experiencing weak demand, but prices are expected to trend upwards due to companies' efforts to improve profitability [10] - The industry is expected to maintain a better profit level compared to last year, supported by a consensus on supply discipline among leading companies [10] 2.2 Glass - The glass market is currently facing a stalemate with high inventory levels and weak demand, but supply-side adjustments are anticipated to continue [13] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies like Qibin Group, which may benefit from industry capacity reductions [13] 2.3 Glass Fiber - The report suggests that the profitability of glass fiber products is expected to improve in the medium term, with a focus on high-end products [11] - The industry is seeing a gradual reduction in supply pressure, which may stabilize prices [11] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the government's commitment to boosting domestic demand and consumption, which is expected to positively impact the construction materials sector [14] - The anticipated recovery in the housing market, driven by government policies, is expected to enhance demand for home improvement materials [14] 4. Weekly Market Review - The construction materials sector has shown resilience, with key companies expected to benefit from ongoing policy support and market recovery [5] - The report identifies several companies as potential investment opportunities, including Conch Cement, China National Building Material, and others [5][15]

Domestic Macro Viewpoints - In August, both domestic and external demand weakened, leading to a supply-demand imbalance where supply remains strong while demand is weak[1] - Investment has shown negative year-on-year growth for two consecutive months, and retail sales growth has been declining since May[1] - GDP growth is expected to remain around 5% in Q3, with macro policies likely to be more stable due to stronger economic data[1] - The divergence between supply and demand is unsustainable; if demand does not strengthen, supply will follow demand downwards, increasing pressure on Q4 GDP[1] Overseas Macro Viewpoints - The CPI released in August slightly exceeded expectations, but inflation pressure from tariffs is easing, leading to a forecasted 25bps rate cut in September[2] - The upcoming appointment of the next Federal Reserve Chair by Trump may influence market expectations for rate cuts in 2026, resulting in further dollar liquidity easing[2] Equity Market Viewpoints - The market has rebounded as expected, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly breaking previous highs, indicating a potential for further upward movement[3] - Internal industry trends are positive, but short-term events like U.S. rate cuts and geopolitical tensions may affect A-share market sentiment[3] - The market is expected to remain in a structural bull market, driven mainly by technology and finance sectors, with room for upward movement despite potential adjustments[3] Bond Market Viewpoints - Since September, interest rates have risen again, with the 10-year rate surpassing 1.80% and the 30-year rate above 2.10%[5] - There are emerging trading opportunities as the market anticipates a "restart of government bond trading," driven by low loan demand and high government bond issuance[5] - The expectation of stable funding rates and potential for interest rate compression may attract funds to bet on interest rate recovery[5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - AI maintains high popularity, and the "call option" of AI+ may gradually be realized. The global AI industry remains hot, with the $300 billion cloud - computing contract between Oracle and OpenAI marking a turning point in the industry. In terms of technology, computing power infrastructure is essential for AGI development, and the multi - cloud architecture is becoming the mainstream. In the strategic aspect, capital is accelerating the AI industry, and computing power is becoming a national strategic resource [2]. - In application, both domestic and overseas giants are innovating. Huawei promotes the application of the Pangu large - model, Apple emphasizes AI in the iOS ecosystem,美团 launches the AI Agent "Xiaomei", and Tencent opens the "Hunyuan Image 2.1". Domestic AI applications are extending to the consumer ecosystem and accelerating into closer - to - user scenarios [3][5]. - In the A - share market, AI concept stocks are active. With market liquidity above 2 trillion, "hot money" may flow to the direction where the industrial trend cannot be falsified. It is recommended to actively layout the under - performing branches in the pan - AI industry chain, such as storage, AIDC - related facilities, and various AI applications [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Tracking - The table shows the weekly performance of major US technology stocks from 2025/9/8 - 2025/9/12. For example, NVIDIA had a weekly increase of 6.47% and a yearly increase of 32.44%, while Apple had a weekly decrease of 2.34% and a yearly decrease of 6.20% [8]. 2. Artificial Intelligence Report Recommendation - The report recommends three stocks. For 极智嘉 - W (02590.HK), the global warehouse fulfillment AMR solution market will expand to hundreds of billions, and it has an advantage in technology and channels. For 江海股份 (002484), as the leading domestic aluminum electrolytic capacitor company, data - center product sales will drive performance growth, and AI applications may bring a second growth curve. For 东材科技 (601208), its multi - business layout helps development, and AI drives up the demand and price of high - end resins [13]. 3. This Week's Key Events - Alibaba released the Qwen3 - Max - Preview language model with over 1 trillion parameters, excellent performance in multiple tests, and a long context - processing ability [4]. - Oracle signed a $300 billion, 5 - year cloud - computing contract with OpenAI, aiming to build the world's largest data - center cluster, which may accelerate global computing - power investment and competition [4]. - 美团 launched the AI Agent "Xiaomei", which can perform various operations in daily life services, accelerating the application of AI in this field [4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the achievements of China's industrial and communication industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan". China's manufacturing added value is expected to increase by 8 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 30% of the global total. It has built the world's largest network infrastructure, with 459,800 5G base stations and over 100 million connected devices on key industrial Internet platforms [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector, specifically recommending South Network Energy and South Network Storage for investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration have issued a notice to improve the pricing mechanism for promoting the nearby consumption of renewable energy, recommending commercial rooftop photovoltaics from South Network Energy and paying attention to Anke Rui [4]. - The large-scale energy storage tender in August exceeded expectations, with South Network Storage being recommended as a storage operator. The economic viability of large-scale storage is expected to improve steadily, driven by AI and the implementation of Document No. 136 [4]. - The report highlights significant growth in electricity consumption and generation, with total electricity consumption from January to July 2025 reaching 5.86 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [13]. - The report tracks key industry data, including electricity prices, coal prices, and water conditions, indicating a stable environment for utility investments [4][40][45]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The utility sector index increased by 0.80% from September 8 to September 12, 2025, underperforming compared to the ChiNext index [9]. - The report notes that the total electricity consumption for the first seven months of 2025 was 5.86 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [13]. Electricity Consumption - The first industry saw a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, the second industry 2.8%, the third industry 7.8%, and urban and rural residential electricity consumption 4.1% [13]. Electricity Generation - Total electricity generation from January to July 2025 was 5.47 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. Notably, coal and hydropower generation saw declines of 1.3% and 4.5%, respectively [21]. Electricity Prices - The average electricity purchase price from the grid in August 2025 was 388 RMB/MWh, a year-on-year decrease of 2% but a month-on-month increase of 1.3% [40]. Coal Prices - As of September 12, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 680 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20.65% [45]. Water Conditions - The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 162.88 meters as of September 12, 2025, with inflow and outflow rates showing significant year-on-year increases of 33.59% and 198.15%, respectively [54]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on listed companies within the South Network system, including South Network Energy, South Network Storage, and South Network Technology, highlighting opportunities in green electricity, photovoltaic assets, and charging station asset value reassessment [4].

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20250915 降息前的普涨——港股&海外周观察 2025 年 09 月 15 日 首先，关税对美国通胀传导程度仍旧可控。美国 8 月 PPI 同比增长 2.6%， 为 6 月以来新低，远低于预期的 3.3%，前值从 3.3%下修为 3.1%；同时， 美国 8 月 CPI 也基本符合预期，CPI 同比 2.9%，持平预期，较前值 2.7% 小幅回升。美国 8 月 CPI 环比 0.4%，略高于预期的 0.3%，前值 0.2%。 PPI 下降为 9 月美联储提供了支持降息的依据，CPI 的温和表现则是巩 固了降息 25bps 降息的幅度。 其次，甲骨文财报超预期，给美股科技注入"强心剂"。甲骨文财报受 到 AI 驱动合同量大幅增长，第一季度创纪录 3320 亿美元订单金额，不 仅刷新软件行业历史最高签约记录，同时标志着其商业模式的根本性转 型。与此同时，甲骨文又宣布与 OpenAI 达成 3000 亿美元新合约，积极 AI 消息的频度和强度持续提升，不断推高科技狂热潮。 短期来看，我们认为美股以继续震荡上行为主。美国就业高频数据（初 请失业金人数上升）+基本符合预期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. gas prices have decreased due to sufficient inventory, while European and Chinese gas prices remain stable [4][9] - It emphasizes the gradual progress of price alignment in the domestic market, which is expected to enhance profitability and valuation recovery for city gas companies [36] Price Tracking - As of September 12, 2025, U.S. HH gas prices decreased by 4.8%, while European TTF prices increased by 2.6%. The prices for East Asia JKM, Chinese LNG ex-factory, and Chinese LNG landed prices changed by +0.5%, -0.6%, and -1.4% respectively [4][9][10] - The average total supply of natural gas in the U.S. decreased by 0.1% week-on-week to 1,123 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand decreased by 0.4% to 995 billion cubic feet per day [14] Supply and Demand Analysis - U.S. natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sectors increased by 16.5% week-on-week, while industrial consumption rose by 0.8% [14] - In Europe, natural gas consumption from January to May 2025 was 2,180 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [16] - China's apparent natural gas consumption from January to July 2025 was 2,461 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [21] Price Adjustment Progress - Nationwide, 65% of cities have implemented residential price adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [36] - The report indicates that there is still a 10% room for price gap recovery in the city gas sector [36] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with cost optimization and supply flexibility, such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, among others [4][36] - It suggests paying attention to companies with quality long-term contracts and cost advantages, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [4][36] Important Announcements - The U.S. gas import tariff has been reduced from 140% to 25%, improving the economic feasibility of U.S. gas imports [42] - The European Parliament has agreed to provide greater flexibility regarding natural gas storage targets, allowing for a deviation of 10 percentage points from the 90% storage target [48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a weekly increase of 3.76%, ranking it among the top sectors [15]. - Precious metals are expected to benefit from the ongoing inflation trend and a weakening labor market, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts continuing [4][46]. - The market is beginning to price in the liquidity easing from the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to a slight improvement in downstream demand as the peak season approaches [1][2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.24 percentage points, with significant gains across all sub-sectors [15]. - Precious metals saw a 5.13% increase, energy metals rose by 1.35%, industrial metals increased by 4.10%, small metals by 4.39%, and new materials by 2.45% [15]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of September 12, LME copper closed at $10,068 per ton, up 1.72% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥81,060 per ton, up 1.15% [2]. Supply tightness is expected due to large-scale maintenance in domestic smelting plants [2][32]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,701 per ton, up 3.78%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥21,120 per ton, up 2.05% [3]. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry remains stable at 44.085 million tons [38]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,956 per ton, up 3.45%, while SHFE zinc was at ¥22,305 per ton, up 0.68% [40]. Inventory levels showed mixed trends, with LME stocks decreasing and SHFE stocks increasing [40]. - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $34,955 per ton, up 2.07%, and SHFE tin at ¥273,950 per ton, up 0.55% [43]. Supply recovery from Myanmar is slower than expected [43]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $3,680.70 per ounce, up 1.12%, and SHFE gold at ¥834.22 per gram, up 2.28% [4][46]. The inflation trend continues to rise while labor market data shows weakness, supporting the outlook for gold [4][47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, suggesting an increase in allocation towards automotive dividend style configurations in the second half of 2025 [4]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is at a crossroads, with the end of the electric vehicle (EV) dividend phase and the dawn of automotive intelligence. The report suggests that structural opportunities may arise similar to previous transitions in 2011 and 2018 [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic consumption expansion and quality improvement in the automotive sector, as outlined in the "Automotive Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" issued by eight government departments [51]. - The report forecasts a total vehicle sales target of approximately 32.3 million units for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of about 3%, and expects new energy vehicle sales to reach around 15.5 million units, growing by approximately 20% [51][52]. Summary by Sections Weekly Review - In the first week of September, the total number of compulsory insurance for passenger vehicles was 360,000 units, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 30.0% [50]. - The report highlights the performance of various segments, with commercial trucks showing the best performance at +4.2%, while passenger vehicles declined by -1.8% [3]. Market Performance - The automotive sector ranked 15th in A-shares and 21st in Hong Kong stocks for the week, indicating a relatively average performance compared to other sectors [8][10]. - The report notes that the overall price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the automotive sector has decreased, with specific segments like passenger vehicles trading at 0.94 times the P/E of parts [36][43]. Industry Trends - The report identifies key changes in the industry, including new model announcements and strategic partnerships aimed at accelerating the commercialization of autonomous vehicles [3]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in the penetration of L3 and L2+ intelligent driving technologies by 2025, driven by major players like Tesla and Huawei [55][56]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on dividend and quality configurations in segments such as buses, heavy trucks, and two-wheelers, as well as selecting stocks in the AI and robotics sectors [4]. - Specific stocks highlighted for potential investment include Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck, and various parts manufacturers [4].