Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the semiconductor equipment industry, particularly highlighting the growth potential in ALD (Atomic Layer Deposition) and SiC (Silicon Carbide) epitaxy equipment markets [3][4][113] Core Views - ASM International (ASM) is a global leader in ALD equipment, with a market share exceeding 50% in the ALD sector, and is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand driven by AI and advanced semiconductor processes [2][3][54] - The SiC epitaxy market is expected to grow significantly, driven by the rapid expansion of the electric vehicle (EV) market, with ASM being a key player in this space through its acquisition of LPE [4][113][114] - The ALD market is projected to grow from $2.6 billion in 2022 to $4.2-5.0 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 10-14%, making it one of the fastest-growing segments in the semiconductor wafer equipment market [3][54][113] Company Overview - ASM, founded in 1968, has evolved from a CVD (Chemical Vapor Deposition) equipment provider to a global leader in ALD and SiC epitaxy equipment, with significant market shares in both sectors [7][10][15] - The company's revenue in 2023 was €2.634 billion, with ALD contributing 55% of the total revenue, followed by silicon epitaxy at 14% and SiC epitaxy at 5% [10][20] - ASM's ALD and epitaxy equipment are widely used in advanced semiconductor processes, including 3D NAND, DRAM, and logic chips, with the company holding a dominant position in the ALD market and a strong presence in the SiC epitaxy market [15][54][113] ALD Equipment Market - The ALD market is driven by the increasing complexity of semiconductor manufacturing processes, particularly in advanced nodes like GAA (Gate-All-Around) and 3D NAND, where ALD technology is essential for precise thin-film deposition [38][42][50] - ASM's ALD product portfolio includes both thermal ALD (T-ALD) and plasma-enhanced ALD (PEALD) systems, with the Pulsar XP being a flagship product that has set industry standards for high-k dielectric deposition [58][62][65] - The company's ALD technology is critical for the transition from FinFET to GAA structures, with ASM estimating that GAA technology will add $400 million in revenue for every 100,000 wafers produced [42][54][65] SiC Epitaxy Market - The SiC epitaxy market is expected to grow from $200 million in 2022 to $780 million by 2027, driven by the adoption of 800V fast-charging systems in EVs and the need for high-performance power devices [113][114][116] - ASM, through its acquisition of LPE, has become the second-largest player in the SiC epitaxy equipment market, with a 25% market share in 2023, trailing behind Aixtron [113][114][116] - The SiC epitaxy market is highly concentrated, with the top three players (Aixtron, ASM, and TEL) accounting for 72% of the market in 2023, indicating significant barriers to entry for new competitors [113][114][116] Silicon Epitaxy Market - The global silicon epitaxy market is expected to grow steadily, with ASM being the second-largest supplier of silicon epitaxy equipment, holding a 16% market share in 2022 [146][147] - The company's silicon epitaxy products, such as Epsilon and Intreprid, are widely used in advanced transistor and memory applications, with ASM continuing to innovate in this space [147][148] - The silicon epitaxy market is driven by the increasing demand for high-quality silicon wafers in advanced semiconductor processes, with ASM well-positioned to capitalize on this growth [146][147][148] Domestic Market and Localization - The report highlights the potential for domestic players like Micro-Nano, Jingcheng Electromechanical, and North Huachuang to lead the localization of ALD and SiC epitaxy equipment in China, with significant progress already made in certain areas [4][152][153] - Domestic companies are expected to benefit from the growing demand for semiconductor equipment in China, particularly in the ALD and SiC epitaxy segments, where local players are rapidly closing the technology gap with international competitors [4][152][153] - The localization of ALD and SiC epitaxy equipment is seen as a key driver for the growth of China's semiconductor industry, with domestic companies expected to play a significant role in the coming years [4][152][153]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·商贸零售 商贸零售行业跟踪周报 浙江省省委书记调研小商品城；小商品城数 贸中心召开新闻发布会公布行业布局方案 2024 年 12 月 02 日 增持（维持） 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石旖瑄 执业证书：S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张家璇 执业证书：S0600520120002 zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谭志千 执业证书：S0600522120001 tanzhq@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阳靖 执业证书：S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 xiy@dwzq.com.cn [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点（文中"本周"指 2024-11-25 至 2024-11-30） ◼ 事件： 11 月 22 日，义乌全球数贸中心行业布局新闻发布会召开。小商 品城董事长王栋先生在发布会上详细介绍了全球数贸中心 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·公用事业 公用事业行业跟踪周报 中国核电漳州 1 号并网发电，国家能源局召 开全国可再生能源开发建设调度会 2024 年 12 月 02 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 本周核心观点：1）中国核电漳州 1 号并网发电。11 月 28 日，中国核电 投资控股的漳州核电 1 号机组首次并网成功，漳州 1 号机组采用我国研 发设计的具有完整自主知识产权的三代压水堆华龙一号，装机容量 121.2 万千瓦，核电进入加速投运期，2025 年中国核电仍有漳州 2 号计 划投运，考虑已投运漳州 1 号与恢复的福清 4 号，中国核电增量明显。 2）国家能源局召开全国可再生能源开发建设调度会。会议指出电网企 业要加强并网服务，保障项目建成后及时并网消纳，全力做好第一批大 型风电光伏基地建设收官工作。会议还对谋划"十五五"期间项目建设、 扎实做好新能源消纳利用等工作提出了具体要求。 ◼ 行业核心数据跟踪：电价：2024 年 12 月电网代购电价同环比下降。煤 价：截至 2024/11/29，动力煤秦皇岛 5500 卡平仓价 818 元/吨，周环比 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·房地产 房地产行业跟踪周报 新房成交同环比上升，多地放松政策密集出台 2024 年 12 月 02 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 上周（2024.11.25-2024.11.29，下同）：上周房地产板块（中信）涨跌幅 3.0%,同期沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为 1.3%、2.2%，超额收 益分别为 1.7%、0.9%。29 个中信行业板块中房地产位列第 10。 ◼ （1）新房市场：上周 37 城新房成交面积 387.9 万方，环比+37.0%，同 比+35.8%。 2024 年 11 月 1 日至 11 月 29 日累计成交 1230.3 万方，同 比+28.2%。今年截至 11 月 29 日累计成交 10496.9 万方，同比-24.8%。 ◼ （2）二手房市场：上周 16 城二手房成交面积 193.9 万方，环比+7.6%， 同比+31.7%。 2024 年 11 月 1 日至 11 月 29 日累计成交 822.7 万方，同 比+29.9%。今年截至 11 月 29 日累计成交 7146.9 万方，同比+ ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·计算机 计算机行业点评报告 医保数据要素实践和展望 2024 年 12 月 02 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 医保带来的发展新增量：2024 年 11 月 27 日，国家医保局发表文章《医 保带来的发展新增量》，其中提到：国家医保局在坚定不移持续推进各 项改革的基础上，正在积极谋划、持续推出一揽子新增量政策，提出要 大力赋能商业保险。国家医保局正在谋划探索推进医保数据赋能商业保 险公司、医保基金与商业保险同步结算以及其他有关支持政策，预计在 大幅降低商保公司核保成本，推动商保公司提升赔付水平的基础上，引 导商保公司和基本医保差异化发展，更多支持包容创新药耗和器械，更 多提供差异化服务，吸引更多客户投保，促进商保市场与基本医保形成 积极正向的良性互动，从而激活更多潜在资金投入商保，促进更多新的 高端医药技术和产品投入应用。 ◼ 商业健康保险是"1+3+N"多层次医疗保障体系的重要组成部分，整体 赔付率较低。2023 年我国基本医疗保险（含生育保险）基金总收入 3.4 万亿元，总支出 2.8 万亿元，而商业健康保险保费收入 9 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·纺织及服饰(HS) 波司登（03998.HK） FY2025H1 业绩点评：主品牌高质量增长，期 待旺季销售 2024 年 12 月 02 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 16774 | 23214 | 26428 | 30076 | 34180 | | 同比 (%) | 3.46 | 38.39 | 13.85 | 13.80 | 13.65 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2139 | 3074 | 3607 | 4100 | 4661 | | 同比 (%) | 3.70 | 43.74 | 17.35 | 13.66 | 13.68 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 0.19 | 0.28 | 0.33 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 12.28 billion yuan in 2024Q1-3, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, with Non-IFRS net profit of 1.93 billion yuan, up 13.7% year-on-year [2] - In 2024Q3, the company's revenue was 4.52 billion yuan, up 19.3% year-on-year, and Non-IFRS net profit was 686 million yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year [2] - Domestic MINISO revenue in 2024Q3 was 2.44 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year, with 135 new stores opened, bringing the total to 4,250 stores [2] - Overseas market revenue in 2024Q3 was 1.81 billion yuan, up 39.8% year-on-year, with 183 new stores opened, bringing the total to 2,936 stores [3] - TOP TOY brand revenue in 2024Q3 was 270 million yuan, up 50.1% year-on-year, with 39 new stores opened, bringing the total to 234 stores [3] - The company expects 2024Q4 revenue to grow 20-25% year-on-year, with overseas MINISO revenue growing 45-50% year-on-year, and TOP TOY maintaining a growth rate of over 50% [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 17.14 billion yuan, up 23.87% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.53 billion yuan, up 12.24% year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS net profit for 2024E is projected at 2.80 billion yuan, up 18.77% year-on-year [1] - EPS for 2024E is projected at 2.01 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 17.73 [1] - Revenue for 2025E is projected at 20.33 billion yuan, up 18.59% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.01 billion yuan, up 18.86% year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS net profit for 2025E is projected at 3.24 billion yuan, up 15.61% year-on-year [1] - EPS for 2025E is projected at 2.39 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 14.92 [1] Key Financial Ratios - ROE for 2024E is projected at 24.58%, with a gross margin of 44.83% and a net profit margin of 14.75% [12] - ROE for 2025E is projected at 26.07%, with a gross margin of 46.44% and a net profit margin of 14.79% [12] - ROE for 2026E is projected at 26.56%, with a gross margin of 47.25% and a net profit margin of 14.66% [12] - P/B ratio for 2024E is projected at 4.34, with an EV/EBITDA of 11.21 [12] - P/B ratio for 2025E is projected at 3.86, with an EV/EBITDA of 10.41 [12] - P/B ratio for 2026E is projected at 3.43, with an EV/EBITDA of 8.64 [12] Market Data - Closing price as of the report date is 38.70 HKD [6] - The company's market capitalization is 48.62 billion HKD [6] - The P/B ratio is 5.12, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 40.72% [6]

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2024-12-02 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20241128：增长缓而稳，降息近尾声——2025 年度展望 （五）：海外宏观 2025 年美国经济将进入软着陆的下半场。特朗普 2.0 时代，美国经济面 临三大未知：外政给经济的滞胀影响，内政给经济的过热影响，以及政策 的节奏、效果与预期差。我们预期 2025 年美国经济维持 2%附近的稳定 增长，但通胀到明年底或难及分析师一致预期的 2.2%，这将导致分析师 预期的 125bps 的降息更难实现。我们预期 25H1 美联储或落地 50-75bps 降息，25H2 经济韧性和通胀黏性凸显，美联储或停止降息，预计 2025 年 降息周期的阶段性终点在 4%附近。 2024 回顾：需求有序降温、供给缓 慢修复的软着陆周期。相较于传统的经济周期框架（仅由总需求驱动的经 济周期，如美银美林时钟），本轮美国经济周期最典型的特征是总供给与 总需求同时、快速的变化，2021-22 年供需关系进一步失衡导致美国产出 缺口迅速走扩至+6.9%。2023 年以来， ...

Market Outlook for 2025 - The A-share market in 2025 will be influenced by three key underlying logics: the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the Trump trade, and domestic macroeconomic policy space [2] - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts will impact A-shares through three dimensions: policy space, fundamentals, and liquidity, benefiting Chinese assets [3] - Trump's re-election and his aggressive trade policies, including increased tariffs and tech restrictions, will push China to strengthen domestic demand policies and tech self-reliance [2] - Domestic macroeconomic policies will focus on fiscal expansion to address weak demand and fiscal deficits, making 2025 a significant fiscal year [2] Market Style and Sector Rotation - In 2025, large-cap stocks are expected to outperform small-cap stocks, with growth sectors like technology leading the market [4] - The market style will shift from valuation-driven to earnings-driven, favoring large-cap stocks due to their relative advantages [4] - Technology growth stocks will benefit from looser global liquidity, with their valuation expansion depending on policy support and earnings expectations [4] - Domestic demand cyclical sectors will see opportunities based on the pace of fiscal stimulus, while dividend assets may have limited excess returns [4] Industry Allocation: Domestic Circulation and Tech Growth - The 2025 industry allocation will focus on domestic circulation and tech growth, driven by policies to boost domestic demand and tech self-reliance [5] - Key areas in domestic circulation include consumer electronics, industrial automation, and new growth points in consumption such as emotional economy and domestic brands [5] - In tech self-reliance, focus areas include AI, autonomous driving, new energy technologies, and breakthroughs in "choke point" technologies like chip manufacturing [5] - Expanding openness will benefit sectors like cross-border e-commerce, digital trade, and inbound tourism [5] Theme Investment: M&A Opportunities - The "Six M&A Rules" will restart the M&A cycle, with policy support for industrial upgrading and local equity fiscal development [6] - State-owned enterprises will focus on strategic restructuring and professional integration, while private enterprises will target cross-border M&A for new productivity development [6] 2024 Market Recap - In 2024, the A-share market formed a "double bottom" and rebounded after macro policy shifts, with the Wind All-A Index rising 12.2% by November 29 [10] - The market was characterized by weak domestic demand and strong overseas inflation, with Trump's re-election and geopolitical tensions adding uncertainty [10] - Liquidity improved after macro policy shifts in September, with ETFs being a significant source of incremental funds [10] - Large-cap and value stocks outperformed, with tech and small-cap stocks gaining momentum later in the year [12] Valuation and Earnings - The Wind All-A Index's P/E ratio rose to 18.5, at the 60th percentile since 2010, with core assets like the CSI 300 seeing significant valuation expansion [16] - The ChiNext Index remains undervalued, with sectors like new energy and healthcare still trading at low historical percentiles [16] - Earnings for the A-share market (excluding financials) are expected to grow by 2.0% in 2025, with profitability improving due to supply-demand dynamics [5] Policy and Fiscal Outlook - Fiscal policy will play a crucial role in 2025, with incremental policies expected to boost domestic demand and address fiscal gaps [85] - Measures like debt restructuring and increased fiscal spending will support economic recovery, with potential for additional special bonds to stimulate consumption [94] - Export growth may slow in 2025 due to Trump's trade policies, prompting further fiscal support to maintain economic growth targets [100] Real Estate and Investment - Real estate investment is expected to stabilize, with policies aimed at reducing mortgage rates and supporting the housing market [113] - Manufacturing and infrastructure will replace real estate as key drivers of investment, with fiscal stimulus supporting infrastructure growth [107] - The real estate sector's share of GDP has declined significantly, suggesting limited further downside [117]

证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 陈李 | 陈梦 | 葛晓媛 | 武朔 | | 证券分析师 | 证券分析师 | 研究助理 | 研究助理 | | 执业证书编号： | 执业证书编号： | 执业证书编号： | 执业证书编号： | | S0600518120001 | S0600524090001 | S0600123040063 | S0600124070017 | 2024年12月1日 1 全球资产表现回顾 全球主要资产近两周涨跌幅回顾 % ■20241116-20241129区间涨跌幅 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 1 - t 2017 10:40 / 2019-000 197 - 1875 37887 数据来源: 东吴证券研究所 Wind, 2 近期全球大类资产交易主线 ⚫ 近两周市场呈现出"特朗普交易" 情绪回落的迹象，"特朗普交易"部分平仓获利离场，主要 驱动因素 ...