Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The strategic partnership with China Resources Sanjiu is expected to open up sales potential and share R&D costs for the product BGM0504 [8] - The collaboration allows the company to leverage Sanjiu's leading OTC channel capabilities, enhancing sales without transferring product ownership [8] - The company has a rich pipeline of innovative drugs and complex generics, with several products expected to enter clinical trials soon [8] - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is projected at 2.6 billion, 3.0 billion, and 4.3 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 160, 139, and 97 [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is expected to grow from 1,283 million in 2024 to 1,762 million in 2027, with a CAGR of 15.11% from 2026 to 2027 [9] - The net profit is projected to recover from a decline in 2024 to 433.39 million by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 43.06% [1][9] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.45 in 2024 to 1.03 in 2027 [1][9] - The company’s asset-liability ratio is expected to decrease from 50.50% in 2024 to 46.56% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the impact of the U.S. tariffs on copper products, leading to a profit growth that may exceed expectations [1][3] - The demand for copper pipes in the U.S. is projected to grow, with a significant recovery in profitability anticipated for 2025 [3][10] - The tariff policy has resulted in a redistribution of profits, providing the company with a competitive advantage in negotiations due to its status as a local copper processing enterprise in the U.S. [3][10] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is forecasted to reach RMB 75.749 billion in 2023, growing to RMB 137.957 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.49% [1][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline to RMB 703.30 million in 2024 but rebound to RMB 3.938 billion by 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [1][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from RMB 0.35 in 2024 to RMB 1.97 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [1][11] Tariff Impact and Market Dynamics - The U.S. tariffs on copper products are expected to enhance the company's profit margins, with an estimated profit of RMB 14,000 per ton after tax deductions [3][10] - The company's U.S. factory is anticipated to expand its production capacity significantly, with projections of reaching 90,000 tons by the second half of 2025 [10][11] - The anticipated increase in production and sales volume is expected to improve the company's capacity utilization and overall profitability [3][10]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: "Day and Night Convergence" New Momentum Factor - **Model Construction Idea**: The model improves traditional momentum factors by incorporating the price-volume relationship during intraday and overnight trading sessions, leveraging the distinct characteristics of these two periods to enhance signal strength and stability [7][6] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The trading period is divided into intraday and overnight sessions [7] 2. Price-volume relationships are separately analyzed for each session to identify unique patterns and characteristics [7] 3. The insights from these analyses are combined to construct a new momentum factor, referred to as the "Day and Night Convergence" factor [7] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates significant improvement in stability and performance compared to traditional momentum factors, effectively addressing the instability issues observed in the A-share market [6][7] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. "Day and Night Convergence" New Momentum Factor - **Annualized Return**: 18.08% [14] - **Annualized Volatility**: 8.75% [14] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 2.07 [14] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 77.54% [14] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 9.07% [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 reached 36.587 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.02%, driven by stable growth in power generation [9] - The company plans to invest approximately 26.6 billion yuan in the construction of the Gezhouba shipping capacity expansion project to enhance power generation efficiency [3] - The company aims to achieve a power generation target of 300 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025, with projected net profits of 35.028 billion yuan, 36.715 billion yuan, and 37.087 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 78.144 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.48% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is projected at 27.245 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.83% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is estimated at 1.11 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 25.14 [1] Operational Highlights - The company reported a total power generation of approximately 1266.56 billion kilowatt-hours in H1 2025, a 5.01% increase year-on-year [9] - The water inflow for the Wudongde reservoir was approximately 39.964 billion cubic meters, an increase of 9.01% compared to the same period last year [9] - The company is expected to benefit from a decrease in the ten-year government bond yield, which has fallen to 1.7% as of July 31, 2025 [10]

- The RPV factor (Renewed Correlation of Price and Volume) integrates intraday and overnight information by dividing price-volume into four quadrants. It leverages monthly IC averages to identify reversal and momentum effects. The factor incorporates "volume" information in correlation form, optimizing intraday and overnight price-volume relationships to create a robust selection factor[6][1][7] - The SRV factor (Smart Renewed Volume) splits intraday price movements into morning and afternoon segments, calculating minute-level "smart" indicators. It identifies the 20% of afternoon minutes with the highest "smart" indicator values as informed trading periods. The factor uses turnover rates during these periods and replaces overnight turnover rates with the last 30-minute turnover rate of the previous day, combining the best-performing intraday and overnight price-volume correlation factors[6][1][7] - The RPV factor achieved an annualized return of 14.44%, annualized volatility of 7.71%, IR of 1.87, monthly win rate of 72.46%, and maximum drawdown of 10.63% during the backtest period from January 2014 to July 2025[7][10] - The SRV factor achieved an annualized return of 17.15%, annualized volatility of 6.49%, IR of 2.64, monthly win rate of 74.64%, and maximum drawdown of 3.74% during the backtest period from January 2014 to July 2025[7][10] - In July 2025, the RPV factor's 10-group long portfolio returned 5.18%, the short portfolio returned 5.58%, and the long-short portfolio returned -0.39%[10] - In July 2025, the SRV factor's 10-group long portfolio returned 5.66%, the short portfolio returned 5.81%, and the long-short portfolio returned -0.15%[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of Sinopec [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 is expected to be under pressure, with a projected net profit decline of 39.5% to 43.7% year-on-year, primarily due to falling international oil prices and intense market competition [7] - Future benefits are anticipated from the reform of fuel consumption tax and the reduction of internal competition in refined oil products [7] - The report highlights the company's commitment to shareholder returns, projecting a dividend payout ratio of 73% for 2025, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.0% for A shares and 5.8% for H shares after tax [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 2,959,498 million RMB, a decrease of 3.74% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 50,172 million RMB for 2025, a slight decrease of 0.28% year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to remain at 0.41 RMB for 2025, with a projected increase to 0.60 RMB by 2027 [1] - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 502 billion RMB, 604 billion RMB, and 723 billion RMB respectively [7] Operational Data - In H1 2025, the company expects to produce 263 million barrels of oil equivalent, with natural gas contributing to production growth [7] - Oil processing volume is projected to decline by 5.3% year-on-year to 120 million tons in H1 2025 [7] - Domestic refined oil sales are expected to decrease by 3.4% year-on-year, totaling 87 million tons in H1 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to increased expenses and impairment losses, despite revenue growth driven by operational services and product sales [7] - The company has initiated a stock incentive plan aimed at achieving significant growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, reflecting confidence in future performance [7] - The company plans to expand its product offerings in the chemical sector, particularly in flotation agents and sodium sulfide, to capitalize on market demand [7] Financial Summary - The company expects total revenue to grow from 808.41 million RMB in 2023 to 1,724.02 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 16.86% [1] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is adjusted to 163.15 million RMB, a decrease of 9.74% compared to the previous year, with a projected P/E ratio of 25.36 [1][7] - The company anticipates a significant increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with a target of 30% revenue growth in 2025 [7]

宏观点评 20250801 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 从"十五五"规划看产业趋势 2025 年 08 月 01 日 [Table_Summary] 中国的五年规划是国家宏观调控、引导经济社会发展的重要手段。进入"十 一五"之后，整体的规划目标从追求规模扩张向追求质量效益转型。从结 构上来看，由于发展目标从规模扩张转向高质量发展，五年规划的目标重 点已经由经济增长转型为公共事务治理规划。"十四五"期间关于人民生活 相关的目标占比明显增加，同时还增加了完全不同于之前五年规划的安全 保障的部分。 尽管针对经济总量目标的要求从定量向定性要求转变，但仍然需要保持适 度的经济增长，才能实现宏观稳定和经济结构的优化。为了实现 2035 年 经济总量或人均国内生产总值比 2020 年翻一番，"十五五"阶段所隐含的 我国经济总量或需至少保持年均 4.5%左右的经济增长水平，对于当期的 经济体量来说，经济增长的整体要求并不低。与之相对应的，设立各产业 的增长目标和碳排放目标，是下一阶段规划中需要落实的重点。 我们统计了 2024 年以来各部委关于"十五五"规划的相关课题，整体来 看，课题旨在破解制约高质量发展的关键瓶颈， ...

Core Insights - The report focuses on adjusting index positions based on technical indicators to achieve excess returns, utilizing a variety of indicators derived from volume and price data [3][8] - A total of 27 technical indicators were constructed and tested across three major indices: CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, as well as 31 industry indices, with an average excess annualized return of 3.75% achieved through a specific technical indicator based on volume-price divergence [3][8] - The report highlights two main strategies: the "Rolling Steady Strategy" suitable for low-risk investors, and the "Rolling Momentum Strategy" for high-risk investors, with the latter showing stronger momentum capabilities [3][8] Latest Index Positioning - As of early August 2025, the CSI 300 has 16 indicators signaling bullish trends and 8 indicating a reduction in positions, while the CSI 500 has 15 bullish and 8 bearish signals. The CSI 1000 also shows 15 bullish signals and 8 bearish signals, with the optimal single indicator maintaining a bullish signal across all indices [2][16][18] Performance Statistics - The Rolling Momentum Strategy recorded an excess return of -0.32% for the CSI 300 and 0.00% for the CSI 1000 in July 2025, indicating varied performance across different indices [9][12] - The report provides detailed performance statistics for various sectors, with notable excess returns and losses across different strategies, highlighting the performance of the Rolling Steady and Rolling Momentum strategies [10][12][13] Signal Analysis - The report includes a comprehensive analysis of the signals for various sectors, indicating the number of bullish and bearish indicators, which can guide investment decisions [18][20][22] - For instance, the Basic Chemical sector has 18 bullish signals and 6 bearish signals, while the Public Utilities sector shows 5 bullish and 19 bearish signals, reflecting differing market sentiments across sectors [18][20]

- Model Name: Five-Dimensional Industry Rotation Model; Model Construction Idea: Based on the Dongwu Financial Engineering multi-factor stock selection system, the model is constructed from the micro-level of individual stocks, dividing micro-factors into five categories: volatility, fundamentals, trading volume, sentiment, and momentum[6]; Model Construction Process: The model uses style indicators to classify stocks within industries, constructing intra-industry dispersion and traction indicators to synthesize final industry factors. The five-dimensional industry rotation model includes volatility, fundamentals, trading volume, sentiment, and momentum factors[6]; Model Evaluation: The model effectively captures industry style differences and integrates multiple factors to enhance industry rotation strategies[6] - Model Name: Five-Dimensional Industry Rotation Model for CSI 300 Index Enhancement; Model Construction Idea: The model applies the five-dimensional industry rotation model to enhance the CSI 300 index by selecting top and bottom industries monthly[21]; Model Construction Process: At the end of each month, the top five industries are selected as enhanced industries, and the bottom five industries are excluded. The weights of excluded industries are proportionally reassigned to the enhanced industries, forming a new CSI 300 enhanced portfolio with monthly rebalancing[21] Model Backtest Performance - Five-Dimensional Industry Rotation Model, Annualized Return: 22.01%, Annualized Volatility: 10.78%, IR: 2.04, Monthly Win Rate: 73.55%, Maximum Drawdown: 13.30%[11][15] - Five-Dimensional Industry Rotation Model (Long-Only), Annualized Return: 10.71%, Annualized Volatility: 6.59%, IR: 1.63, Monthly Win Rate: 71.07%, Maximum Drawdown: 9.36%[15][16] - Five-Dimensional Industry Rotation Model for CSI 300 Index Enhancement, Annualized Return: 8.61%, Annualized Volatility: 7.41%, IR: 1.16, Monthly Win Rate: 68.85%, Maximum Drawdown: 12.65%[22] Factor Backtest Performance - Volatility Factor, Annualized Return: 11.57%, Annualized Volatility: 10.12%, IR: 1.14, Monthly Win Rate: 60.32%, Maximum Drawdown: 14.27%[15] - Fundamentals Factor, Annualized Return: 6.80%, Annualized Volatility: 12.14%, IR: 0.56, Monthly Win Rate: 56.35%, Maximum Drawdown: 26.32%[15] - Trading Volume Factor, Annualized Return: 8.83%, Annualized Volatility: 11.72%, IR: 0.75, Monthly Win Rate: 60.32%, Maximum Drawdown: 18.40%[15] - Sentiment Factor, Annualized Return: 8.01%, Annualized Volatility: 12.86%, IR: 0.62, Monthly Win Rate: 64.29%, Maximum Drawdown: 14.79%[15] - Momentum Factor, Annualized Return: 11.54%, Annualized Volatility: 10.67%, IR: 1.08, Monthly Win Rate: 60.80%, Maximum Drawdown: 13.52%[15]