证券研究报告·公司点评报告·工程机械 浙江鼎力（603338） 欧盟反倾销终裁税率降至 23.6%，显著低于 国内同行 2024 年 11 月 15 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 5445 | 6312 | 8299 | 9977 | 11607 | | 同比（ % ） | 10.24 | 15.92 | 31.47 | 20.23 | 16.34 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1257 | 1867 | 2158 | 2609 | 2984 | | 同比（ % ） | 42.15 | 48.51 | 15.60 | 20.87 | 14.39 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 2.48 | 3.69 | 4.26 | 5.15 | ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·工程机械 工程机械行业点评报告 10 月叉车销量同比持平，关注后续内需修复 趋势 2024 年 11 月 14 日 增持（维持） [关键词： Table_Tag#出口导向 ] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 10 月叉车内/外销分别同比-6%/+13%，内需继续承压 2024 年 10 月叉车行业合计销量 9.9 万台，同比增长 6.1%，其中国内销量 6.1 万台，同比下降 6%，出口销量 3.8 万台，同比增长 13%。受下游制造 业景气度低迷、小车需求逐步消化的影响，内销增速继续承压：10 月 PMI 为 50.1%，环比提升 0.2pct，物流业景气指数 52.6%，环比提升 0.2pct，保 持在景气区间；仓储指数 49.4%，环比下降 0.4pct。9 月末以来宏观政策逆 周期调节力度加大，货币政策财政政策陆续落地，叉车行业景气度、电动 化转型进展与宏观经济活跃度，制造业、物流业景气度直接挂钩，建议关 注后续内需修复趋势。 ◼ 受益产品结构优化，2024 上半年板块业绩增速稳健 2024 前三季度叉车板块业绩维持稳健增长。收入端，受国内制造业景气度 下滑， ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·汽车(HS) 零跑汽车（09863.HK） 2024 年三季报点评：业绩表现超预期，全球 化持续推进 2024 年 11 月 15 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|------------|------------|------------|--------|----------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 12385 | 16747 | 30624 | 56791 | 79807 | | 同比 (%) | 295.41 | 35.23 | 82.86 | 85.45 | 40.53 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (5,108.89) | (4,216.27) | (3,334.25) | 102.57 | 2,413.46 | | 同比 (%) | - | - | - | - | 2,253.04 | | EPS- 最新摊 ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2024-11-15 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20241114：10 月通胀：美联储落子何处？ 今年以来，美联储政策的天平一直倾向就业，大选后政策的重心开始转回 通胀。美国总统大选"尘埃落定"，红色浪潮席卷，"共和党横扫"下，特 朗普的一揽子政策（减税+加征关税+移民收紧+监管放松）抬升美国长期 通胀预期。考虑到这"四杆枪"可能加剧物价上涨的压力，因此无论是市 场还是美联储，都对 CPI 数据变得更加敏感，也让市场开始担心通胀加 剧，可能减少美联储利率的回旋余地。 2025 年，美联储怎么降？长期 通胀预期是答案。参考历史，作为回应通胀的恢复，美联储往往会推迟降 息的时机。因此如果美联储认为通胀放缓不够快，或者长期通胀预期上 升，降息节奏停滞时点或前移。但如果在特朗普就职后，迅速采取激进的 贸易行动，那么美联储很可能会像 2019 年第一次中美贸易摩擦期间那样 降息，这样的行为不仅受到特朗普的欢迎，同时对美联储政策独立性的 "怀疑"也可以减轻。 固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 固收点 ...

证券研究报告·公司研究简报·通信设备 亨通光电（600487） 业绩稳健同增，在手订单充沛 2024 年 11 月 14 日 买入（上调） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 46464 | 47622 | 54030 | 60372 | 65762 | | 同比（ % ） | 12.58 | 2.49 | 13.46 | 11.74 | 8.93 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1586 | 2154 | 2846 | 3450 | 3950 | | 同比（ % ） | 10.44 | 35.77 | 32.15 | 21.23 | 14.47 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 0.64 | 0.87 | 1.15 | 1.40 | 1.60 | | P/ ...

International Asset Performance and Outlook - U.S. stocks are viewed optimistically due to a favorable political environment and strong economic data, with the Republican Party's victory in the presidential election and Congress providing a conducive environment for continued growth[16] - U.S. Treasury bonds are expected to experience short-term adjustments but remain bullish in the long term, with limited upside potential for yields in the short term[17] - Gold prices have adjusted downward post-U.S. election but are expected to rise in the long term due to a new investment paradigm influenced by multiple factors[17] Domestic Asset Performance and Outlook - Chinese equities are cautiously optimistic in the short term but bullish in the medium term, with the Wind All-A Index rising 37.91% from September 24 to November 11, 2024[34] - Chinese government bonds are cautiously optimistic in the short term, with short-term opportunities potentially greater than long-term ones[35] - The manufacturing PMI has risen above the 50-point threshold, indicating expansion[20] Macro Data and Policy Developments - The U.S. CPI and core CPI remained stable, with the CPI meeting expectations[5] - The U.S. dollar index rose from 100.9420 on September 18, 2024, to 106.4839 on November 13, 2024[9] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased from 3.65% on September 11, 2024, to 4.44% on November 13, 2024[12] - London spot gold prices adjusted from $2,777.80 on October 30, 2024, to $2,598.75 on November 13, 2024[15] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected major macroeconomic events and macroeconomic data falling short of expectations[37]

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·社会服务 社会服务行业深度报告 OTA 行业深度报告： 市场规模、竞争格局及增速展望 2024 年 11 月 14 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 在线旅游平台（OTA，即 Online Travel Agency）是全方位、多角度聚合 旅游资源和信息，并将其链接至终端消费者的互联网平台。历经 20 多 年的发展，中国在线旅游市场交易规模已达到 1.1 万亿元，在线旅游平 台渗透率达六成以上，竞争结构演化至寡占型。 ◼ 规模：2023 年全国旅游总收入约 5.3 万亿人民币，恢复至 2019 年的 80%，仍处增长通道。 OTA 平台深度参与大陆旅游市场除购物外的各 项经济活动。拆分出行消费大类来看： ⚫ 交通预定：国内客运交通交易规模约为 1.4 万亿级别，其中铁路加 民航占比超过 70%，按交易规模口径测算在线交通的线上化率约为 54%。其中：①铁路旅客发送量 10 年 CAGR 为 6.2%，资源端由国 铁集团主导，常态化线上售票比例达到 85%左右。②民航旅客周转 量 10 年 CAGR 为 6.2%，民航公司集中度高 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has successfully captured industry dividends during both the SUV era (pre-2017) and the electrification era (post-2020), leveraging structural changes in downstream automakers and industry trends such as large-screen car cabins and smart driving [2] - The management team has maintained a forward-looking approach, with the current leadership consisting of founding employees and a strategy that includes employee equity incentives to retain core talent [2] - The market's pessimism towards the automotive electronics supply chain is exaggerated, and the company, as an industry leader, is expected to benefit from the broadening capabilities of the supply chain due to E/E architecture upgrades and software-defined trends [2] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing market space for automotive electronics both domestically and internationally, with significant growth expected in smart cabins and smart driving domain controllers [3] Market Space and Growth Projections - The domestic and international market space for smart cabins (including screen instruments, HUD, and cabin domain controllers) is expected to grow from 119.1 billion/181 billion in 2024 to 200 billion/250.7 billion by 2027 [3] - The market space for low-to-mid-tier smart driving domain controllers in China is projected to increase from 21.8 billion in 2024 to 25.3 billion by 2027, while high-tier smart driving domain controllers are expected to grow from 19.3 billion/3.9 billion in 2024 to 44.2 billion/30.1 billion by 2027 [3] - The integration of cabin and driving functions is anticipated to begin scaling in 2025, with a long-term market space exceeding 10 billion [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 149.33 billion in 2022 to 461.73 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1.185 billion in 2022 to 3.963 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 28.71% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 2.13 yuan in 2022 to 7.14 yuan by 2026 [1] Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong foothold in the automotive electronics supply chain, with a history of adapting to industry shifts and maintaining a competitive edge through strategic management and technological advancements [2] - The company's ability to secure key clients and adapt to the evolving demands of the automotive industry, particularly in the areas of smart cabins and smart driving, positions it as a leader in the sector [2][3] Industry Trends - The automotive industry is transitioning from electrification to intelligence, with the next phase expected to be driven by the penetration of intelligent features [174] - The company is expected to benefit from the "democratization of smart driving," where high-tier smart driving features become accessible to a broader range of vehicles, and from the globalization of automotive electronics, expanding its reach from domestic to global markets [181]

证券研究报告 · 宏观报告 · 宏观点评 宏观点评 20241114 10月通胀:美联储落子何处? ■ 今年以来,美联储政策的天平一直倾向就业,大选后政策的重心开始特 回通胀。美国总统大选"尘埃落定",红色浪潮席卷,"共和党横扫"下, 特朗普的一揽子政策(减税+加征关税+移民收紧+监管放松)抬升美国 长期通胀预期。考虑到这"四杆枪"可能加剧物价上涨的压力,因此无 论是市场还是美联储,都对 CPI 数据变得更加缴感,也让市场开始担心 通胀加剧，可能减少美联储利率的回旋余地。 ■ 2025年,美联储怎么降?长期通胀预期是答案。参考历史,作为回应通 账的恢复,美联储往往会推迟降息的时机。因此如果美联储认为通胀放 缓不够快,或者长期通胀预期上升,降息节奏停滞时点或前移。但如果 在特朗普就职后,迅速采取激进的贸易行动,那么美联储很可能会像 2019 年第一次中美贸易摩擦期间那样降息,这样的行为不仅受到特朗 普的欢迎,同时对美联储政策独立性的"怀疑"也可以减轻。 ■ 此外即便降息路径上,2025年的节奏和幅度可能存在"预期差",但美 联储政策仍有继续放松的需要,退出 QT 也已经摆在美联储的办公桌 上。主要是因为美元流动 ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2024-11-14 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20241112：10 月社融：政府债边际退坡，信贷加快修复 一揽子政策发力下，信贷结构出现明显修复。在地产政策发力、股市回暖 的影响下，10 月信贷明显改善，尤其是居民端贷款，在政策的影响下微 观主体的信贷意愿正逐步修复。往后看，后续随着 10 万亿化债方案的推 出，前期因存量债务而固化的巨额流动性将逐步释放，企业资金面将得到 改善，从而带动信用的扩张，缓解有效需求不足的矛盾，助力物价回升。 具体来看，10 月金融数据的边际变化主要体现在以下几个方面： 一是， 信贷结构优化，10 月不仅居民贷款同比实现多增，企业中长贷跌幅也有 所收窄，显示一揽子政策的效果逐步显现，政策支持下微观主体资产负债 表逐步修复，信贷意愿扩张。 二是，M1 同比增速触底反弹，M1-M2 剪 刀差收窄，企业流动性改善，资金活化能力提升。 三是，财政存款大幅 下降，10 月政府债融资边际退坡，但财政支出进一步发力，财政资金加 快拨付使用。 风险提示：政策出台节奏及项目落地放缓导致 ...