Group 1 - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is in an upward trend with a solid bottom, driven by improved investor sentiment and increased trading volume, particularly from institutional investors [1][2][3] - There is a notable shift towards high-dividend stocks and technology stocks, which are expected to provide momentum for the overall market [1][2] - Concerns about rising overseas risks, particularly related to the appreciation of USD assets and the impending deadline for tariff negotiations, are highlighted [1][2] Group 2 - The report expresses optimism about AI technology, noting strong capital expenditure in US tech stocks and the potential for new AI models in China to boost the tech narrative [2][3] - High-dividend stocks are favored due to the nature of incremental capital and their comparative advantage over A-shares, alongside low funding costs in Hong Kong [2][3] - Investors are expected to focus on sectors with strong performance and undervaluation, such as innovative pharmaceuticals, during the earnings season [2][3] Group 3 - The report lists the top ten recommended stocks, including Meitu, Kuaishou, and various pharmaceutical companies, with detailed financial metrics such as market capitalization and PE ratios [3][8][79] - Specific investment recommendations for each stock are provided, emphasizing growth potential driven by AI applications, strategic partnerships, and market positioning [11][18][23][28][37][48][62][72] Group 4 - The report outlines key assumptions and driving factors for each recommended stock, such as user growth, product performance, and market conditions [13][19][24][30][38][42][49][56][68][74] - Unique insights into the companies' competitive advantages and market strategies are presented, indicating potential for significant growth and valuation improvements [15][20][25][32][39][45][60][69][76]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 26% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, with the integrated circuit testing segment showing remarkable growth [3] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of 990 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and a net profit of 120 million yuan, up 14% year-on-year [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the demand recovery in special industries and the domestic semiconductor supply chain, with performance growth likely to continue [5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company's gross profit margin was 41.9%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The revenue from the environmental testing services segment was 490 million yuan, up 6% year-on-year, while the integrated circuit testing segment generated 160 million yuan, a growth of 21% year-on-year [3][4] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 2.8 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan, and 4.3 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30, 24, and 19 [11]

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·专用设备 专用设备行业点评报告 头部厂商公布固态电池时间线指引，设备商 有望率先受益 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 全固态电池叠片设备的精度和数量要求更高，设备商强者恒强（价值量 占比 25%）：固态电池的电极和电解质具有脆性特性，无法使用传统卷 到芯 Z 字叠片工艺，需采用单片叠片方式，通常由多对机械手同时完成 正极、负极（含电解质膜）的叠片。由于仅能单片叠，且没有 PE 隔膜 提供连接，叠片工艺的精度和稳定性要求大幅提升，同时为匹配叠片作 业，需要更多机械手，高难度和更多需求推动叠片环节设备量价齐升。 先导智能叠片设备技术领先，在头部客户市占率最高，固态电池叠片领 域延续其优势；利元亨也已向头部整车厂固态电池玩家交付叠片设备。 2025 年 07 月 31 日 证券分析师 周尔双 执业证书：S0600515110002 021-60199784 zhouersh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李文意 执业证书：S0600524080005 liwenyi@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -9% -3% 3% 9% 1 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that despite the inherent advantages of active management strategies in bond funds, the future growth of index bond funds, particularly bond index ETFs, is expected to be significant, with a particular focus on credit bond index ETFs and equity-linked ETFs [4][49]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - From a performance perspective, the "Shanghai Market Company Bond" index yielded 0.58% from June 3, 2025, to July 29, 2025, outperforming the benchmark B index, which returned 0.39% during the same period [2][38]. - In terms of liquidity, during a period of rising government bond yields, the average turnover rate for component bonds was 0.61%, compared to 0.95% for non-component bonds, indicating a relative decline in liquidity for non-component bonds [2][38]. Group 2: ETF Advantages - The report suggests that there is significant room for growth in the proportion of ETFs within domestic index bond funds, as only 7.8% of index bond funds are ETFs, with a net asset value share of 31.7% as of July 2025 [20][23]. - The improvement in liquidity for credit bonds through ETFs is notable, and there is a recommendation to expand the range of tracked indices to create more distinctive credit bond index tracking products [31][38]. Group 3: Innovative Products - The report discusses the potential for innovative equity-linked bonds and related ETFs, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment where investors seek stable returns [3][39]. - The concept of "automatic redemption bonds," which provide returns linked to stock indices while offering capital protection under certain conditions, is highlighted as a product that could gain traction in the domestic market [3][41][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's H1 2025 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with a net profit margin improvement. The revenue for H1 2025 reached 178.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, while the net profit was 30.5 billion yuan, up 33% year-on-year [2][9] - The report forecasts a steady growth in revenue and net profit for the upcoming years, with expected net profits of 66.1 billion yuan, 80.2 billion yuan, and 96.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 21%, and 20% [4][28] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 94.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8% and a net profit of 16.5 billion yuan, marking a 34% year-on-year growth. The gross margin was reported at 25.6%, with a net profit margin of 17.5% [2][9][10] - The company’s effective production capacity reached 345 GWh with a utilization rate of approximately 90%, and it is expected to reach nearly 900 GWh by the end of the year [14][15] Business Segments - The battery segment saw a revenue of 131.6 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 17% increase year-on-year, while the energy storage segment reported a revenue of 28.4 billion yuan, a slight decline of 1% year-on-year. The average price for power batteries was 0.69 yuan/Wh, down 13% year-on-year [17][19] - The company maintained a domestic market share of 42-45% in the power battery segment, with a 5 percentage point increase in the European market share to 43% [14][17] Profitability and Valuation - The report projects a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25x for 2025, with a target price set at 440 yuan per share [4][28] - The company is expected to maintain a strong competitive position as a global leader in power batteries, with a projected net profit growth of 30% in 2025 [4][28]

Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The July FOMC meeting maintained interest rates at 4.25-4.5% with a 9-2 vote, signaling a hawkish stance due to inflation concerns[1] - Powell indicated that the distance to achieve inflation targets is greater than that for employment, suggesting a need for restrictive policy rates[1] - The market now expects the likelihood of a rate cut in September to be delayed until Q4 2025, with 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields projected to rise to 4.05% and 4.5% respectively in August and September[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Projections - Economic growth is showing signs of moderation, with consumer spending beginning to slow down, and GDP growth expected to be revised downwards[1] - The labor market remains balanced, but there are signs of downward risks with a slight decline in private sector job opportunities[1] - Inflation remains a concern, with tariffs beginning to impact goods inflation, while service sector inflation shows improvement[1] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the FOMC meeting, the probability of a September rate cut has decreased to 47%, with an average expectation of 1.48 rate cuts for the year[1] - The market anticipates a new round of monetary easing after the appointment of a new Fed chair, with expectations for three rate cuts in 2026 potentially increasing to four or more[1] - The overall strategy suggests that the U.S. Treasury yields may initially rise before declining later in the year as the market adjusts to new monetary policies[1]

Economic Growth - The US GDP for Q2 2025 showed a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of +3.0%, reversing from a previous decline of -0.5% and exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus expectation of +2.6% and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast of +2.9%[1] - The core PCE for the same period increased by +2.5%, surpassing the expected +2.3% and down from +3.5% in the previous quarter[1] Structural Analysis - The significant GDP growth was driven by a reversal of the "import surge & inventory accumulation" seen in Q1, with the contribution from goods imports rebounding from -4.84% to +5.02% and inventory changes dropping from +2.59% to -3.17%[1] - The Private Domestic Final Purchases (PDFP), a core GDP indicator, grew by only +1.2%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of decline and indicating weak internal economic growth[1] Inventory Dynamics - Inventory changes shifted from $160.5 billion to -$26 billion, reflecting a transition from active inventory accumulation by producers and wholesalers to inventory reduction, while retail inventories continued to grow albeit at a slower pace[1] - If demand does not absorb retail inventories, the likelihood of businesses actively restocking in Q3 may be limited[1] Future Outlook - Attention should be paid to the risk of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in September, which could lead to an increase in US Treasury yields and the US dollar index rising back to the 100-105 range[1] - The current market is trading under the assumption of "strengthening growth leading to delayed rate cuts," and if upcoming employment data reflects similar trends, the probability of a rate cut in September may decrease, tightening financial conditions and increasing downward pressure on the economy[1] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected policy actions from Trump, excessive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[1]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·消费电子 安克创新（300866） 拟发布限制性股票激励计划，授予价格无折 让彰显公司信心 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 17,507 | 24,710 | 33,013 | 41,996 | 52,128 | | 同比（%） | 22.85 | 41.14 | 33.60 | 27.21 | 24.13 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,615 | 2,114 | 2,458 | 3,351 | 4,217 | | 同比（%） | 41.22 | 30.93 | 16.25 | 36.34 | 25.85 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.04 | 3.98 | 4.62 | 6.30 | 7.93 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 41.77 | 31.90 | 27.44 | 20.13 | 15.99 | [Table_Tag] [Table ...

证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阳靖 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·一般零售 永辉超市（601933） 拟定增融资 40 亿元，主要用于支持门店调改 2025 年 07 月 31 日 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 78,642 | 67,574 | 53,514 | 64,996 | 71,765 | | 同比（%） | (12.71) | (14.07) | (20.81) | 21.46 | 10.41 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (1,329.05) | (1,465.46) | (865.58) | 440.65 | 1,094.02 | | 同比（%） | 51.90 | (10.26) | 40.93 | 150.91 | 148.28 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (0.15) | (0.16) ...

Macro Strategy - The meeting of the Political Bureau on July 30 acknowledged the economic growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, laying a good foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [1][8] - The meeting emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to strengthen and improve efficiency, particularly if there are significant fluctuations in consumption, exports, or the real estate sector in the second half of the year [1][8] - Key policy goals include stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, while enhancing the flexibility and predictability of policies [1][8] Fixed Income - The issuance of secondary capital bonds totaled 109.9 billion yuan during the week of July 21-25, with a total trading volume of approximately 288.1 billion yuan, an increase of 45.4 billion yuan from the previous week [4][15] - The issuance of green bonds during the same period reached approximately 36 billion yuan, a rise of 27.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week, with a total trading volume of 61 billion yuan [4][16] - The market for convertible bonds is expected to see increased volatility, with high-priced bonds exhibiting high odds but low win rates, while low-priced bonds are showing increased marginal value [3][14] Company Analysis - Hongfa Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 8.347 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.43%, and a net profit of 964 million yuan, up 14.19% [6][7] - Laopu Gold's adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to increase by 282% to 292%, benefiting from the expansion of high-end channels domestically and internationally [6][7]