宏观点评 20250801 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 从"十五五"规划看产业趋势 2025 年 08 月 01 日 [Table_Summary] 中国的五年规划是国家宏观调控、引导经济社会发展的重要手段。进入"十 一五"之后，整体的规划目标从追求规模扩张向追求质量效益转型。从结 构上来看，由于发展目标从规模扩张转向高质量发展，五年规划的目标重 点已经由经济增长转型为公共事务治理规划。"十四五"期间关于人民生活 相关的目标占比明显增加，同时还增加了完全不同于之前五年规划的安全 保障的部分。 尽管针对经济总量目标的要求从定量向定性要求转变，但仍然需要保持适 度的经济增长，才能实现宏观稳定和经济结构的优化。为了实现 2035 年 经济总量或人均国内生产总值比 2020 年翻一番，"十五五"阶段所隐含的 我国经济总量或需至少保持年均 4.5%左右的经济增长水平，对于当期的 经济体量来说，经济增长的整体要求并不低。与之相对应的，设立各产业 的增长目标和碳排放目标，是下一阶段规划中需要落实的重点。 我们统计了 2024 年以来各部委关于"十五五"规划的相关课题，整体来 看，课题旨在破解制约高质量发展的关键瓶颈， ...

Core Insights - The report focuses on adjusting index positions based on technical indicators to achieve excess returns, utilizing a variety of indicators derived from volume and price data [3][8] - A total of 27 technical indicators were constructed and tested across three major indices: CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, as well as 31 industry indices, with an average excess annualized return of 3.75% achieved through a specific technical indicator based on volume-price divergence [3][8] - The report highlights two main strategies: the "Rolling Steady Strategy" suitable for low-risk investors, and the "Rolling Momentum Strategy" for high-risk investors, with the latter showing stronger momentum capabilities [3][8] Latest Index Positioning - As of early August 2025, the CSI 300 has 16 indicators signaling bullish trends and 8 indicating a reduction in positions, while the CSI 500 has 15 bullish and 8 bearish signals. The CSI 1000 also shows 15 bullish signals and 8 bearish signals, with the optimal single indicator maintaining a bullish signal across all indices [2][16][18] Performance Statistics - The Rolling Momentum Strategy recorded an excess return of -0.32% for the CSI 300 and 0.00% for the CSI 1000 in July 2025, indicating varied performance across different indices [9][12] - The report provides detailed performance statistics for various sectors, with notable excess returns and losses across different strategies, highlighting the performance of the Rolling Steady and Rolling Momentum strategies [10][12][13] Signal Analysis - The report includes a comprehensive analysis of the signals for various sectors, indicating the number of bullish and bearish indicators, which can guide investment decisions [18][20][22] - For instance, the Basic Chemical sector has 18 bullish signals and 6 bearish signals, while the Public Utilities sector shows 5 bullish and 19 bearish signals, reflecting differing market sentiments across sectors [18][20]

- Model Name: Five-Dimensional Industry Rotation Model; Model Construction Idea: Based on the Dongwu Financial Engineering multi-factor stock selection system, the model is constructed from the micro-level of individual stocks, dividing micro-factors into five categories: volatility, fundamentals, trading volume, sentiment, and momentum[6]; Model Construction Process: The model uses style indicators to classify stocks within industries, constructing intra-industry dispersion and traction indicators to synthesize final industry factors. The five-dimensional industry rotation model includes volatility, fundamentals, trading volume, sentiment, and momentum factors[6]; Model Evaluation: The model effectively captures industry style differences and integrates multiple factors to enhance industry rotation strategies[6] - Model Name: Five-Dimensional Industry Rotation Model for CSI 300 Index Enhancement; Model Construction Idea: The model applies the five-dimensional industry rotation model to enhance the CSI 300 index by selecting top and bottom industries monthly[21]; Model Construction Process: At the end of each month, the top five industries are selected as enhanced industries, and the bottom five industries are excluded. The weights of excluded industries are proportionally reassigned to the enhanced industries, forming a new CSI 300 enhanced portfolio with monthly rebalancing[21] Model Backtest Performance - Five-Dimensional Industry Rotation Model, Annualized Return: 22.01%, Annualized Volatility: 10.78%, IR: 2.04, Monthly Win Rate: 73.55%, Maximum Drawdown: 13.30%[11][15] - Five-Dimensional Industry Rotation Model (Long-Only), Annualized Return: 10.71%, Annualized Volatility: 6.59%, IR: 1.63, Monthly Win Rate: 71.07%, Maximum Drawdown: 9.36%[15][16] - Five-Dimensional Industry Rotation Model for CSI 300 Index Enhancement, Annualized Return: 8.61%, Annualized Volatility: 7.41%, IR: 1.16, Monthly Win Rate: 68.85%, Maximum Drawdown: 12.65%[22] Factor Backtest Performance - Volatility Factor, Annualized Return: 11.57%, Annualized Volatility: 10.12%, IR: 1.14, Monthly Win Rate: 60.32%, Maximum Drawdown: 14.27%[15] - Fundamentals Factor, Annualized Return: 6.80%, Annualized Volatility: 12.14%, IR: 0.56, Monthly Win Rate: 56.35%, Maximum Drawdown: 26.32%[15] - Trading Volume Factor, Annualized Return: 8.83%, Annualized Volatility: 11.72%, IR: 0.75, Monthly Win Rate: 60.32%, Maximum Drawdown: 18.40%[15] - Sentiment Factor, Annualized Return: 8.01%, Annualized Volatility: 12.86%, IR: 0.62, Monthly Win Rate: 64.29%, Maximum Drawdown: 14.79%[15] - Momentum Factor, Annualized Return: 11.54%, Annualized Volatility: 10.67%, IR: 1.08, Monthly Win Rate: 60.80%, Maximum Drawdown: 13.52%[15]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Style Rotation Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model is built from micro-level stock characteristics, leveraging valuation, market capitalization, volatility, and momentum factors to construct a style timing and scoring system. It integrates micro-level indicators and machine learning techniques to optimize style rotation strategies[4][9] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Select 80 base factors as original features based on the Dongwu multi-factor system[9] 2. Construct 640 micro-level features from these base factors[4][9] 3. Replace absolute proportion division of style factors with common indices as style stock pools to create new style returns as labels[4][9] 4. Use rolling training with a Random Forest model to avoid overfitting risks, optimize feature selection, and generate style recommendations[4][9] 5. Develop a framework from style timing to scoring, and from scoring to actual investment decisions[9] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively avoids overfitting risks and provides a comprehensive framework for style rotation strategies[9] Model Backtesting Results - **Style Rotation Model**: - Annualized Return: 16.66%[10][11] - Annualized Volatility: 19.57%[10][11] - Information Ratio (IR): 0.85[10][11] - Monthly Win Rate: 56.31%[10][11] - Maximum Drawdown: -29.34%[11] - Excess Return (vs Benchmark): 11.40%[10][11] - Excess Volatility (vs Benchmark): 13.04%[10][11] - Excess IR (vs Benchmark): 0.87[10][11] - Excess Monthly Win Rate (vs Benchmark): 57.28%[10][11] - Excess Maximum Drawdown (vs Benchmark): -9.73%[11] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Valuation, Market Capitalization, Volatility, Momentum **Factor Construction Idea**: These factors are derived from micro-level stock characteristics and are used to construct style timing and scoring systems[4][9] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Extract micro-level features from base factors[4][9] 2. Use these features to create style returns as labels for machine learning models[4][9] 3. Apply Random Forest models to optimize factor selection and timing[4][9] **Factor Evaluation**: These factors are foundational to the style rotation model and contribute to its effectiveness in timing and scoring[4][9] Factor Backtesting Results - **Valuation Factor**: Monthly Returns (2025/01-2025/05): -2.00%, 0.00%, 2.00%, 4.00%, 6.00%[13][20] - **Market Capitalization Factor**: Monthly Returns (2025/01-2025/05): -4.00%, -2.00%, 0.00%, 2.00%, 4.00%[13][20] - **Volatility Factor**: Monthly Returns (2025/01-2025/05): -6.00%, -4.00%, -2.00%, 0.00%, 2.00%[13][20] - **Momentum Factor**: Monthly Returns (2025/01-2025/05): -8.00%, -6.00%, -4.00%, -2.00%, 0.00%[13][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's mid-term performance is under pressure, with a notable decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025. However, the company is accelerating its overseas acquisition strategy to enhance its international presence [1][7] - The company reported a revenue of 13.569 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.84%, and a net profit of 564 million yuan, down 40.16% year-on-year [7] - The company is optimizing its channel structure, with significant growth in overseas revenue, which increased by 42.16% year-on-year to 576 million yuan [7] - The company is focusing on cost control, with a decrease in various expense ratios, and has shown improvement in operating cash flow [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 32.823 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 27.228 billion yuan in 2025E, followed by a gradual increase to 30.912 billion yuan by 2027E [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to drop significantly to 108 million yuan in 2024A, before rebounding to 1.495 billion yuan in 2025E and reaching 2.356 billion yuan by 2027E [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.05 yuan in 2024A, increasing to 0.99 yuan by 2027E [1][8] - The company’s P/E ratio is expected to be 265.65 in 2024A, decreasing to 12.20 by 2027E, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [1][8]

Macro Strategy - The report discusses the potential growth of bond ETFs, suggesting that despite the inherent advantages of actively managed bond funds, there is room for ETFs to leverage their product strengths. It highlights the significant improvement in liquidity for credit bonds through ETFs and suggests expanding the range of tracked indices [1][16]. - The report emphasizes the expected growth in the management scale of domestic index bond funds, particularly credit bond index ETFs and equity-linked ETFs, as the equity market recovers [1][16]. Macro Commentary - The July FOMC meeting maintained interest rates at 4.25-4.5%, signaling a hawkish stance as inflation targets remain distant compared to employment goals. This may delay rate cuts until Q4 2025, with expectations for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to rise to 4.05% and 4.5% respectively [2][17]. - The second quarter GDP growth in the U.S. was reported at +3.0%, reversing the previous quarter's -0.5% and exceeding market expectations. However, the core GDP indicator, PDFP, only grew by +1.2%, indicating that the growth was largely driven by inventory adjustments rather than strong internal economic growth [3][19]. Fixed Income Analysis - The report notes that the issuance of secondary capital bonds totaled 109.9 billion yuan, with a trading volume of approximately 288.1 billion yuan, reflecting an increase in market activity [7]. - Green bond issuance reached 35.9 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 61 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest in sustainable finance [7]. Company-Specific Insights - Su Shi Testing (300416) reported a 26% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q2, driven by strong growth in the integrated circuit sector. The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 280 million, 350 million, and 430 million yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [10]. - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (300750) slightly exceeded profit expectations, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 66.1 billion, 80.2 billion, and 96.6 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating due to its leading position in the global battery market [11]. - Yonghui Supermarket (601933) plans to raise 4 billion yuan through a private placement to support store renovations, with adjusted profit forecasts reflecting a potential recovery in performance [13]. - Huaneng International (600011) reported a 24.3% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, benefiting from a 9.2% decrease in coal costs. The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 13.78 billion, 16.02 billion, and 17.53 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [14].

Group 1: Capital Market News - International organizations and institutions have generally raised China's economic growth expectations, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stating that the steady growth trend continues to strengthen [7][8] - Foreign financial institutions believe that China is undergoing an unprecedented large-scale economic transformation, transitioning from "Made in China" to "Created in China," which will provide more development opportunities for foreign investors [7] - The Ministry of Commerce expressed hope for the European side to maintain market openness and provide a fair business environment for Chinese enterprises [8] Group 2: Industry News - The National Internet Information Office has interviewed NVIDIA regarding security risks associated with the H20 computing chip, which has been reported to have serious security issues [9] - The National Energy Administration plans to conduct pilot projects for the intelligent upgrade of coal mine technology, focusing on key areas and typical application scenarios to enhance productivity [11] - The Financial Regulatory Authority has issued a notice to promote the high-quality development of urban commercial health insurance, emphasizing inclusivity and commercial attributes [12] Group 3: Market Performance - On July 31, 2025, the ChiNext 50 index fell by 1.01%, the North Exchange 50 index fell by 1.16%, and the A-share index fell by 1.18% [13] - As of July 31, 2025, there are 268 constituent stocks in the North Exchange, with an average market capitalization of 3.109 billion, and a trading volume of 20.210 billion, which decreased by 6.801 billion compared to the previous trading day [13] Group 4: Company Announcements - New Weiling announced the results of share reduction by shareholders holding more than 5%, with a total reduction of 1,275,200 shares, amounting to 37.839 million yuan [21] - KQ Group received a notice regarding the reduction of shares by its controlling shareholder, with a total reduction of 471,613 shares, affecting the shareholding ratio [22]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a focus on the broad technology sector for investment in August, highlighting a "slow bull" market mentality [2][4] - The recommended stocks include leading companies across various industries, such as XianDao Intelligent in machinery and HuaQin Technology in military [2][6] - The report suggests that the current market is experiencing a consolidation phase, with a potential shift from point trading to space trading as profits are realized [4][6] Group 2 - XianDao Intelligent is expected to benefit from the restart of production by domestic leaders, with significant orders projected from partners like Ningde Times [9][10] - HuaQin Technology is positioned to grow due to its leading role in stealth materials, with projected net profits increasing from 4.98 billion to 6.56 billion from 2025 to 2027 [15][16] - Anker Innovation is recognized as a leader in consumer electronics, with a projected overseas revenue share of 96.4% in 2024, driven by strong growth in new products [20][22] Group 3 - JingZhiDa is advancing in the semiconductor testing equipment market, with significant orders expected from major clients, indicating a strong growth potential [25][26] - BoRui Pharmaceutical is projected to see net profits rise from 2.6 billion to 4.3 billion from 2025 to 2027, driven by clinical advancements [29][30] - Focus Technology is leveraging AI tools to enhance seller efficiency and increase cash flow, indicating a positive outlook for its business model [32][34] Group 4 - HaiTianRuiSheng is involved in high-quality data set development, with expected revenue growth of 61%-78% in 2025, supported by government and enterprise contracts [38][39] - DongPeng Beverage is experiencing increased sales due to enhanced brand exposure and product offerings, maintaining a "buy" rating [43][44] - DaJin Heavy Industry is positioned for growth with a strong order backlog and plans for overseas expansion, indicating robust future performance [45][46] Group 5 - XinHeCheng is a leading player in the fine chemical sector, with a focus on vitamins and amino acids, benefiting from a strong integrated supply chain [49][50] - The company is expected to see a recovery in vitamin prices and increased production capacity in amino acids, enhancing its competitive position [53][54] - The report highlights the potential for significant growth in the new materials sector, driven by ongoing projects and market demand [50][52]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is in an upward trend with a solid bottom, driven by improved investor sentiment and increased trading volume, particularly from institutional investors [1][2][3] - There is a notable shift towards high-dividend stocks and technology stocks, which are expected to provide momentum for the overall market [1][2] - Concerns about rising overseas risks, particularly related to the appreciation of USD assets and the impending deadline for tariff negotiations, are highlighted [1][2] Group 2 - The report expresses optimism about AI technology, noting strong capital expenditure in US tech stocks and the potential for new AI models in China to boost the tech narrative [2][3] - High-dividend stocks are favored due to the nature of incremental capital and their comparative advantage over A-shares, alongside low funding costs in Hong Kong [2][3] - Investors are expected to focus on sectors with strong performance and undervaluation, such as innovative pharmaceuticals, during the earnings season [2][3] Group 3 - The report lists the top ten recommended stocks, including Meitu, Kuaishou, and various pharmaceutical companies, with detailed financial metrics such as market capitalization and PE ratios [3][8][79] - Specific investment recommendations for each stock are provided, emphasizing growth potential driven by AI applications, strategic partnerships, and market positioning [11][18][23][28][37][48][62][72] Group 4 - The report outlines key assumptions and driving factors for each recommended stock, such as user growth, product performance, and market conditions [13][19][24][30][38][42][49][56][68][74] - Unique insights into the companies' competitive advantages and market strategies are presented, indicating potential for significant growth and valuation improvements [15][20][25][32][39][45][60][69][76]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 26% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, with the integrated circuit testing segment showing remarkable growth [3] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of 990 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and a net profit of 120 million yuan, up 14% year-on-year [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the demand recovery in special industries and the domestic semiconductor supply chain, with performance growth likely to continue [5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company's gross profit margin was 41.9%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The revenue from the environmental testing services segment was 490 million yuan, up 6% year-on-year, while the integrated circuit testing segment generated 160 million yuan, a growth of 21% year-on-year [3][4] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 2.8 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan, and 4.3 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30, 24, and 19 [11]