证券研究报告 原油周报：国内外成品油价格下跌，国际油价下跌 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 2024年11月17日 投资要点 ◼ 【美国原油】 ◼ 1）原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别71.9/68.1美元/桶，较上周分别-3.1/-3.5美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.2/4.3/3.9/0.3亿桶，环比 +266/+209/+57/-69万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1340万桶/天，环比-10万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周478台，环比-1台。美国活跃压 裂车队本周222部，环比-5部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油加工量为1651万桶/天，环比+18万桶/天；美国炼厂原油开工率为91.4%，环比+0.9pct。 ◼ 5）原油进出口量：美国原油进口量、出口量、净进口量为651/344/307万桶/天，环比+27/+59/-32万桶/天。 ◼ 【美国成品油】 ◼ 1）成品油价格和价差：美国汽油、柴油、航煤周均价分别8 ...

证券研究报告 基础化工周报：纯MDI价格大幅上涨 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 2024年11月17日 投资要点 ◼ 【聚氨酯板块】本周纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业均价为19240/18320/12760元/吨，环比分别 +530/+10/-220元/吨，纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业毛利分别为5996/6168/556元/吨，环比分别 +543/+72/+113元/吨。 ◼ 【油煤气烯烃板块】①本周乙烷/丙烷/动力煤/石脑油均价分别为1054/4542/660/4581元/吨，环比分 别+72/-3/+0/-162元/吨。②本周聚乙烯均价为8374元/吨，环比+12元/吨，乙烷裂解/CTO/石脑油裂 解制聚乙烯理论利润分别为1778/1874/-13元/吨，环比分别-88/+8/+141元/吨。③本周聚丙烯均价为 7300元/吨，环比+0元/吨，PDH/CTO/石脑油裂解制聚丙烯理论利润分别为-255/1360/-341元/吨， 环比分别-9/+0/+141元/吨。 ◼ 【煤化工板块】本周合成氨/尿素 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 环渤海港口库存高企煤价承压，亟待需求反 弹 2024 年 11 月 17 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（11 月 11 日至 11 月 15 日）港口动力煤现货价环比下跌 10 元/吨， 报收 837 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 188.76 万吨，环比上周减少 0.17 万吨，降幅 0.09%。铁路部门为完成年度运量计划，积极组织煤炭拉运， 港口调入量维持高位。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量 175.96 万吨，环比上周增加 5.96 万吨，增幅 3.50%；日均锚地船舶 51 艘，环比上周增加 2 艘，增幅 4.12%。 库存端，环渤海四港区库存 2808.60 万吨，环比上周增加 122.70 万吨， 增幅 4.57%。港口锚地船舶数量维持低位，但是消费旺季来临，预计下 游采购将逐步增加，需求将会逐步改善。 我们分析认为：煤炭价格在 9-10 月淡季未出现大跌，进入 10 月下旬开 始陆续进入传统旺季，即便经济如前期低迷，旺季煤价仍旧上涨动能较 强。且国际标准煤 ...

证券研究报告 大炼化周报：下游织企库存增加，涤纶长丝偏弱运行 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 2024年11月17日 投资要点 ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2489.59元/吨，环比+123.28元/吨（环比 +5.21%）；国外重点大炼化项目本周价差为958.12元/吨，环比+48.98元/吨（环比+5.39%）。 ◼ 【聚酯 板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6950/7500/8521元/吨，环比分别-86/-86/-71元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为69/168/249元/吨，环比分别-19/-19/-9元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 17.6/21.3/22.3天，环比分别+2.5/+2.4/+2.9天，长丝开工率为89.40%，环比-0.12pct。下游方面，本周织机开 工率为69.04%，环比+0.00pct，织造企业原料库存为9.08天，环比-0.82天，织造企业成品库存为23.17天，环比- 0.83天。 ◼ 【炼油板块】 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·机械设备 机械设备行业跟踪周报 看好内需改善后工程机械的盈利弹性；锂电 光伏新技术进展利好设备商 2024 年 11 月 17 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [1.Table_Summary] 推荐组合：北方华创、三一重工、中微公司、恒立液压、中集集团、拓荆科技、海天 国际、柏楚电子、晶盛机电、杰瑞股份、浙江鼎力、杭叉集团、迈为股份、先导智能、 长川科技、华测检测、安徽合力、精测电子、纽威股份、芯源微、绿的谐波、海天精 工、杭可科技、伊之密、新莱应材、高测股份、纽威数控、华中数控。 2.投资要点： 【工程机械】小松开机小时数再次破百，中大挖景气度回升 2024 年 10 月中国区小松挖掘机开工小时数 105.3 小时，同增 4.3%，连续 4 月实现同 比增长。中大挖是小松在国内份额的主要支撑，开机小时数破百反映中大挖景气度有 所回暖。我们认为，中大挖景气度回暖带动主机厂销量结构持续优化，盈利能力有望 进入上行通道。2024 年 10 月销售各类挖机 16791 台，同比+15.1%，其中内销 8266 台， 同增 21.6%（CME 预测+18%）；外销 8525 台 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 鹰派的联储表态叠加通胀数据抬头，强美元 压制有色金属走势 2024 年 11 月 16 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（11 月 11 日-11 月 15 日），有色板块本周下跌 5.71%，在全部一级 行业中涨幅靠后。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中能源金属板块下 跌 1.40%，贵金属板块下跌 3.99%，小金属板块下跌 6.44%，工业金属板块下跌 6.70%，金属新材料板块下跌 7.99%。工业金属方面，美国经济数据超预期，本周 十年期美债收益率以及美元指数均录得进一步上涨，对工业金属价格形成压制。贵 金属方面，美元指数持续强势压制黄金价格走势，此外美国大选结束后，部分避险 资金开始离场，根据世界黄金协会，在 11 月的第一周全球黄金 ETF 共计净流出 8.6 吨黄金，本周黄金价格全面下跌，预计短期价格以震荡为主。 ◼ 周观点： 铜：需求强劲电解铜国内社会库存持续去库，强美元短期压制铜价走势。截至 11 月 15 日，伦铜报收 8,971 美元/吨，周环比下跌 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·保险Ⅱ 新华保险（601336） 举牌医药商业更新——分享长期红利， 夯实权益贡献 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|--------|--------|-----------------------------------|--------|-------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 归母净利润（百万元） | | | 21,500 8,712 20,600 13,543 14,407 | | | | 同比增长率（ % ） | 43.8% | -59.5% | 136.5% | -34.3% | 6.4% | | 新业务价值（百万元） | | | 2,423 3,024 4,403 5,065 5,763 | | | | 同比增长率（ % ） | -59.5% | 24.8% | 45.6% | 15.0% | 13.8% | | EVPS （元 / 股） | ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·钢铁 钢铁行业跟踪周报 政策不及预期，螺纹开始累库，钢材价格震 荡下行 2024 年 11 月 16 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 本周（11.11-11.15）跟踪：本周钢价受政策不及预期影响叠加基本面弱 势震荡下跌，总体库存较为健康，但螺纹开始累库，表现不佳。 钢价震荡下跌，成本端支撑较弱：本周钢价弱势下跌，主要受上周五政策 不及预期、基本面角度供需弱势运行影响，截至 11 月 15 日螺纹钢 HRB400 上海报价 3420 元/吨（yoy-16.0%），周降 110 元/吨，热轧板卷 Q235B 上海报价 3.0mm 为 3510 元/吨（yoy-12.7%），周降 100 元/吨。 成本端角度，本周铁矿价格下行，国内焦煤价格基本持平，废钢略有提 升，成本端支撑较弱。 供给端总体产量有所下降，需求端消费小幅减量：供应方面，五大钢材总 体产量略有下行，截至 11 月 15 日，主要钢厂螺纹产量 234 万吨（yoy-7%）， 周增 0.2 万吨，热轧板卷产量 224 万吨（yoy-2%），周减 3.7 万吨，我们判 断 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Bilibili achieved its first positive Non-GAAP net profit in 2024Q3, with revenue of RMB 7.306 billion, up 26% YoY and 19% QoQ, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of RMB 7.144 billion [1] - Non-GAAP net profit reached RMB 236 million, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates of RMB 217 million [1] - The company announced a share repurchase plan of up to USD 200 million within the next 24 months [1] Financial Performance - Gross margin increased significantly to 34.9% in 2024Q3, up 9.9pct YoY and 4.9pct QoQ, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of sequential improvement [2] - Sales/management/R&D expense ratios were 16.5%, 6.9%, and 12.4% respectively, showing YoY and QoQ declines [2] - Revenue from gaming business surged to RMB 1.823 billion in 2024Q3, up 84% YoY and 81% QoQ, driven by the success of the SLG game "Three Kingdoms: Strategic Conquest" [3] - Advertising revenue reached RMB 2.094 billion in 2024Q3, up 28% YoY and 3% QoQ, with strong growth in performance advertising [4] - Value-added services revenue was RMB 2.821 billion in 2024Q3, up 9% YoY and 10% QoQ, supported by growth in live streaming and premium membership services [4] Business Outlook - The company's gaming and advertising businesses are expected to continue their upward trajectory, with further potential for high-margin growth [2][4] - The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategic Conquest" is expected to maintain strong performance domestically and explore overseas markets in the coming years [3] - New game releases, such as "Jujutsu Kaisen," are anticipated to contribute to future growth, with a focus on younger demographics [3] - Advertising business is projected to sustain high growth rates, driven by improved commercialization infrastructure and increased advertiser budgets [4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted at RMB 26.7 billion, RMB 30.2 billion, and RMB 32.6 billion respectively [4] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be RMB -103 million, RMB 1.935 billion, and RMB 3.027 billion respectively [4] - The 2025-2026 Non-GAAP PE ratios are estimated at 29x and 19x based on the current stock price [4] Market Data - Closing price: USD 18.59 [6] - 52-week low/high: USD 8.80/31.77 [6] - Market capitalization: USD 7.831 billion [6] - Price-to-book ratio: 4.04x [6]

Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [1] Core Views - The company is the largest city gas operator in China, with stable cash flow matching capital expenditures and steadily increasing dividends [1] - The gas sales business benefits from high-quality projects and improved profitability due to market-oriented reforms [1] - The company is rapidly expanding its comprehensive service and comprehensive energy businesses, creating new growth points [1] - The company's city gas projects are of high quality, with price adjustments driving profit recovery, and the dual-comprehensive business growing faster than the industry [1] Business Overview City Gas Operations - The company is the largest city gas operator in China, with 276 city gas projects across 25 provinces as of 2024H1 [1] - Retail gas sales reached 387.80 billion cubic meters in 2023, accounting for 10% of national consumption [1] - The company's retail gas volume grew at a CAGR of 9.8% from 2018 to 2023, with a 5.3% YoY increase in 2024H1 [1] - The company's gas sales gross margin improved to 0.54 yuan/cubic meter in 2024H1, up 0.04 yuan/cubic meter YoY [1] Comprehensive Services - The company has 55.808 million urban residential users as of 2023, with 72.9% located in tier 1-3 cities [1] - Comprehensive service segment profit grew 18.99% YoY to 1.37 billion HKD in 2023, and further increased 22.12% YoY to 760 million HKD in 2024H1 [1] - The company's market share in kitchen appliances and insurance businesses reached 8.6% and 23.0% respectively in 2023 [1] Comprehensive Energy Business - The company focuses on distributed photovoltaic, distributed energy, and transportation energy sectors [1] - Energy sales volume increased 84.9% YoY to 2.94 billion kWh in 2023, with a gross profit of 270 million HKD, up 125% YoY [1] - In 2024H1, energy sales volume grew 54.6% YoY to 1.49 billion kWh, with a gross profit of 160 million HKD, up 84.3% YoY [1] Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue is expected to reach 98.882 billion HKD in 2024, with a YoY decrease of 2.83% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.722 billion HKD in 2024, with a YoY increase of 9.5% [1] - EPS is expected to be 2.47 HKD in 2024, with a P/E ratio of 11.5x [1] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.1% from 2023 to 2026, faster than its peers [87] - The company's P/E ratio is 12.6x for 2023, 11.5x for 2024, 10.5x for 2025, and 9.7x for 2026, lower than the industry average [87]