Macro Strategy - The meeting of the Political Bureau on July 30 acknowledged the economic growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, laying a good foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [1][8] - The meeting emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to strengthen and improve efficiency, particularly if there are significant fluctuations in consumption, exports, or the real estate sector in the second half of the year [1][8] - Key policy goals include stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, while enhancing the flexibility and predictability of policies [1][8] Fixed Income - The issuance of secondary capital bonds totaled 109.9 billion yuan during the week of July 21-25, with a total trading volume of approximately 288.1 billion yuan, an increase of 45.4 billion yuan from the previous week [4][15] - The issuance of green bonds during the same period reached approximately 36 billion yuan, a rise of 27.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week, with a total trading volume of 61 billion yuan [4][16] - The market for convertible bonds is expected to see increased volatility, with high-priced bonds exhibiting high odds but low win rates, while low-priced bonds are showing increased marginal value [3][14] Company Analysis - Hongfa Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 8.347 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.43%, and a net profit of 964 million yuan, up 14.19% [6][7] - Laopu Gold's adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to increase by 282% to 292%, benefiting from the expansion of high-end channels domestically and internationally [6][7]

Group 1: Capital Market News - The Political Bureau meeting on July 30, 2025, emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts and timely enhancements, recognizing both strong economic vitality and existing risks[6] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to focus national-level funds on modern industrial upgrades, key technology breakthroughs, and major cross-regional projects[8] Group 2: Industry News - The National Healthcare Security Administration held a meeting to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs and medical devices, indicating strong market confidence in China's innovative pharmaceutical sector[10] - Anhui Province aims to optimize its non-ferrous metal industry, targeting revenue exceeding 500 billion yuan by 2027, with a focus on high-end, intelligent, and green development[11] Group 3: Market Performance - On July 30, 2025, the Beijiao Stock Exchange 50 Index fell by 1.75%, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.62%[14] - The average market capitalization of the 268 constituent stocks in the Beijiao Stock Exchange is 3.152 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 27.011 billion yuan, an increase of 589 million yuan from the previous trading day[14]

Economic Overview - The political bureau meeting on July 30, 2025, acknowledged the economic growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5%[1] - The meeting highlighted ongoing risks and challenges in the economy, necessitating continued macro policy support and effectiveness[1] Policy Directions - Macro policies are to "continue to exert force and timely increase strength," maintaining the focus on "stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations" as key objectives[1] - The meeting emphasized the need for policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight[1] Demand Expansion - Policies to expand domestic demand will focus on two growth points in service consumption: general consumption and elderly/childcare consumption[1] - For general consumption, service consumption subsidies may replace "old-for-new" subsidies, potentially driving an additional 70 billion yuan in consumption annually, accounting for approximately 0.15% of social retail sales[1] Industrial Policy - The meeting stressed the importance of optimizing market competition order and addressing disorderly competition among enterprises[2] - The approach to capacity reduction will be guided rather than enforced, focusing on market-driven methods to minimize economic shocks[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will prioritize structural support rather than broad easing, with a focus on supporting technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade[2] - The potential introduction of policy financial tools is anticipated, with a timeline similar to previous years, aiming to support various sectors including traditional infrastructure and technology[2] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal measures in the first half of the year showed a 3.4% increase in expenditures, indicating a proactive fiscal stance[2] - The actual deficit rate for the first half reached 3.9%, suggesting significant fiscal effort, although further total policy increases may not be necessary unless economic pressures escalate in the latter half[2] Financial Market - The meeting called for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to sustain its recovery momentum[2] - This involves institutional innovation and market opening to better allocate resources and support various enterprises[2] Real Estate Policy - While not a primary focus, the meeting underscored the importance of implementing urban renewal and improving the real estate development model[2] - Future policies may include optimizing existing regulations and promoting urban renewal projects to stimulate housing demand[2] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential downturns in the real estate market, trade tensions, and the effectiveness of consumption stimulus measures[2]

Market Performance - The North Exchange has seen significant liquidity improvement due to policy support and a 30% price fluctuation limit, attracting incremental capital[1] - As of July 29, 2025, the North Exchange has 268 listed companies with an average market capitalization of 3.187 billion yuan, with 69.03% of companies valued between 1 billion and 3 billion yuan[7][11] - The North Exchange's average daily turnover rate reached 7.88% as of July 29, 2025, significantly higher than other A-share indices[14] Supply Side - The pace of new stock issuance is expected to steadily increase, with 145 companies currently in the IPO process as of July 29, 2025[28] - The average net profit of new three-board listed companies increased from 44.61 million yuan in January 2024 to 61.96 million yuan in the first half of 2025, supporting high-quality expansion of the North Exchange[28] Investment Value - North Exchange funds have consistently performed well, with many ranking in the top 25% of the market in 2024[33] - As of July 29, 2025, the North Exchange's PE (TTM) ratio stands at 52.80, placing it in the historical high range since its inception[18][22] Investment Recommendations - Key recommended stocks include Lin Tai New Material, Na Ke Nuo Er, and Yuan Hang Precision, focusing on high-quality leaders in niche sectors[34] - Specific sectors to watch include machinery, electric new energy, basic chemicals, light industry and consumption, TMT, automotive, and biomedicine[34] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy risk, liquidity risk, and the possibility of corporate earnings falling short of expectations[63]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with significant growth in high-voltage direct current and industrial control sectors [8] - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 8.347 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.43%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.964 billion yuan, up 14.19% year-on-year [8] - The company is expected to maintain a revenue growth rate of over 40% in the high-voltage direct current relay segment due to increased sales from domestic and international clients [8] - The industrial relay segment is also anticipated to see growth as overseas clients begin to replenish inventory, particularly in Europe [8] - The company is experiencing strong demand in the new energy, automotive, and signal relay markets, with expectations of continued growth in these areas [8] - The company's strategic focus on high-quality development and diversification is expected to drive long-term growth [8] - The financial outlook remains positive, with projected net profits of 1.985 billion yuan, 2.316 billion yuan, and 2.689 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 21.72%, 16.67%, and 16.12% [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 16.679 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18.27% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 1.36 yuan per share in 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 17.36 [1] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable around 36.27% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 11.90% [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the electric equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The overall holdings in the electric new energy sector decreased, with declines in electric vehicles, photovoltaics, energy storage, industrial control, and electric grid sectors, while the wind power sector saw an increase [1][2][3] - The proportion of holdings in the electric new energy sector among all fund holdings decreased by 1.82 percentage points to 12.20% in Q2 2025 [14][19] - The report highlights a shift in investment focus, with new technologies in the electric vehicle sector gaining traction despite overall declines in traditional segments [1][19] Summary by Sections 1. Electric New Energy Overall Holdings Analysis - The proportion of electric new energy holdings in total fund holdings decreased to 12.20%, down 1.82 percentage points [14] - The electric vehicle sector's holdings decreased to 4.15%, down 1.05 percentage points [19] - The energy storage sector's holdings decreased to 5.60%, down 2.20 percentage points [5] 2. Electric New Energy Subsector Holdings Analysis - Electric vehicle sector: Overall holdings decreased, with upstream lithium mining and midstream components also declining [1][19] - Photovoltaic sector: Holdings decreased to 2.75%, down 0.58 percentage points, with declines in silicon materials, silicon wafers, and inverters [2][32] - Wind power sector: Holdings increased to 3.32%, up 0.48 percentage points, with increases in turbine and tower segments [2][3] - Nuclear power sector: Holdings increased to 0.78%, up 0.14 percentage points [3] 3. Industrial Control & Electric Equipment - The industrial control and electric equipment sector saw a decrease in holdings to 5.14%, down 0.54 percentage points [4] - The electric equipment sector's holdings decreased to 1.48%, down 0.46 percentage points [4] 4. Energy Storage Sector - The overall holdings in the energy storage sector decreased to 5.60%, down 2.20 percentage points, with a notable decline in storage batteries [5][19] - New energy storage technologies saw a slight increase, indicating a potential area for future investment [5]

Macro Strategy - The chemical sector has seen continuous catalysts on both supply and demand sides since 2024, with the current "anti-involution" trend enhancing the market outlook, driven by a favorable fundamental environment and potential valuation uplift from emerging industries [1][23] - More than half of the existing convertible bonds in the chemical sector are issued at the peak of the cycle, currently entering or about to enter the redemption period, coinciding with an upward cycle, leading to more proactive debt conversion measures [1][23] - The majority of chemical convertible bonds are small-cap, which, combined with their near-term characteristics, amplifies the asymmetry of returns [1][23] Currency Exchange Rate - The RMB central parity has shown a gradual appreciation trend, with the exchange rate expected to challenge the 7.15 range again, and the spot exchange rate may drop to the 7.10-7.15 range in August [1][25] - The recent strengthening of the RMB is supported by optimistic expectations from US-China trade negotiations and a robust domestic stock market [1][25] Anti-Involution Policy - The "anti-involution" price governance aims to address three main objectives: short-term regulation of price wars, medium-term capacity reduction to promote supply-demand balance, and long-term price recovery, particularly in PPI [2][26] - The previous supply-side reforms led to a 10-month recovery in PPI, and under neutral assumptions, a similar recovery may take 11-12 months, potentially reaching around 1.9% by September next year [2][26] Industry Rotation - The market is expected to remain optimistic in the third quarter, with a focus on sectors that align with upcoming policies and key events, particularly those benefiting from the "anti-involution" strategy [3][5] - Suggested sectors for investment include those with potential short-term demand improvements, such as photovoltaic, coal, and chemical industries, as well as technology sectors with recent catalysts [5][3] Company-Specific Insights - Xidi Microelectronics is positioned as a leading player in the analog chip sector, with a projected revenue growth of 32.10% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, driven by significant contributions from its audio coil motor driver chip product line [11][12] - Minshida reported a 27.91% year-on-year revenue increase in its 2025 mid-year report, with expectations for continued growth in the transformer market driven by demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and wind power [13] - Gaomei's second-quarter performance is expected to turn profitable due to supply-side optimization driven by the "anti-involution" policy, with N-type silicon wafer prices rising to 1.1 yuan per piece [14][15]

Market Performance - The North Exchange 50 Index rose by 0.68% on July 29, 2025, with the innovative drug theme leading the gains[1] - The ChiNext Index led the market with a rise of 1.86%, while the CSI 300 increased by 0.39% and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33%[13] - As of July 29, 2025, the North Exchange had 268 constituent stocks with an average market capitalization of 3.185 billion, and a trading volume of 26.422 billion yuan, an increase of 2.186 billion yuan from the previous trading day[13] Capital Market News - The EU plans to purchase AI chips worth 40 billion euros as part of a trade agreement with the US, which will establish a 15% tariff cap on EU goods starting August 1[8] - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, but tax revenue has shown positive growth for three consecutive months since April[9] Industry News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs supports local areas in building agricultural product marketing service systems to enhance consumer confidence[10] - Chengdu, Sichuan, has introduced new real estate policies to promote stable and healthy market development, including the gradual removal of housing purchase restrictions[12] Company Announcements - Zhongcheng Technology signed a significant contract worth 50.52 million yuan for a big data cloud platform service project with China Mobile[21] - Ge Bi Jia announced the termination of its neutral borosilicate medicinal glass project due to changes in local electricity policies[22] Risk Warning - Risks include individual stock earnings falling short of expectations, intensified industry competition, increased trade frictions, and policy outcomes not meeting expectations[2]

Macroeconomic Liquidity and Capital Prices - The central bank maintained a net injection of 129.5 billion CNY, continuing to support the liquidity environment[10] - The money market rates have increased, with R007 rising by 18.7 basis points and DR007 by 14.6 basis points[13] - Bond market yields are under pressure, with 1Y and 10Y government bond yields increasing by 3.45 and 6.72 basis points respectively[13] Microeconomic Liquidity and A-share Market - A-shares experienced a net inflow of 46.6 billion CNY, primarily driven by significant inflows of leveraged funds[21] - Retail investors showed increased activity, with net inflows of 78.6 billion CNY, a rise of 26.2 billion CNY from the previous period[24] - Leveraged funds saw a net inflow of 444 billion CNY, marking a significant increase in market risk appetite[28] Fund Flows and Public Offerings - New issuance of equity funds reached 19.4 billion CNY, an increase of 6.8 billion CNY from the previous period[39] - Equity ETFs experienced a net outflow of 58.3 billion CNY, while industry-themed ETFs saw a net inflow of 115.1 billion CNY[40] - The total supply of funds was 58 billion CNY, up 35.9 billion CNY, while total demand decreased to 11.3 billion CNY, down 16.4 billion CNY[21] Risk Factors - Economic recovery may fall short of expectations, potentially increasing market uncertainty[65] - Geopolitical events could escalate tensions, impacting domestic and international markets[65] - Statistical data discrepancies may lead to inaccuracies in market assessments[65]

Macro Strategy - The chemical sector is experiencing a favorable supply and demand dynamic, with the current "anti-involution" trend enhancing market conditions. The outlook remains optimistic due to dual catalysts: improving fundamentals and new industry layouts leading to valuation increases [1][22] - Over half of the existing convertible bonds in the chemical sector are issued at the peak of the cycle, entering redemption periods amid an upward cycle, prompting more proactive debt conversion measures [1][22] - The majority of chemical convertible bonds are small-cap, which, combined with their near-term characteristics, amplifies the asymmetry of returns [1][22] Currency Exchange - The RMB's central parity has shown a gradual appreciation trend, with the exchange rate potentially challenging the 7.15 range against the USD. The expected range for August is between 7.10 and 7.15 [1][24] - The RMB's appreciation is supported by optimistic expectations from US-China trade negotiations and a strong domestic stock market, despite a weaker immediate exchange rate [1][24] Industry Analysis - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address three main objectives: short-term regulation of price wars, medium-term capacity reduction, and long-term price recovery, particularly in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [2][25] - The PPI is expected to recover to around 1.9% by September next year, following a 10-month period of negative growth after the last supply-side reform [2][26] - The current approach to capacity reduction is shifting towards policy-guided methods rather than direct shutdowns, reflecting the need for a balanced economic impact [2][26] Sector Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that have not yet experienced significant price increases, such as photovoltaic, coal, and chemical industries, which may see short-term demand improvements [5] - The technology sector, particularly robotics, is highlighted as having potential catalysts for growth, despite previous underperformance [5] Company Insights - Xidi Microelectronics is positioned as a leading player in the analog chip sector, with a projected revenue growth of 32.1% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, driven by its diverse product lines [11] - Minshida's revenue is expected to grow by 27.91% year-on-year, with a focus on high-value products in the growing fields of new energy vehicles and renewable energy [12] - Gaomei's second-quarter performance is anticipated to turn profitable, benefiting from supply-side changes and price increases in the photovoltaic sector [13][14]