Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 1.82%, ranking above average among all primary industries [14] - Industrial metal prices are under pressure due to rising U.S. inflation and a strong dollar, while domestic "anti-involution" sentiment creates a mixed outlook [27][28] - Gold prices are expected to remain stable in the short term due to the strong dollar and interest rate expectations [48] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming by 1.13 percentage points [14] - Among sub-sectors, small metals increased by 4.45%, energy metals by 3.31%, precious metals by 1.61%, industrial metals by 1.00%, and new metal materials by 0.19% [14] Industrial Metals - Copper: LME copper price reached $9,795/ton, up 1.36% week-on-week, while SHFE copper price was 78,410 CNY/ton, down 0.03% [32] - Aluminum: LME aluminum price was $2,638/ton, up 1.38%, and SHFE aluminum price was 20,510 CNY/ton, down 0.89% [37] - Zinc: LME zinc price was $2,824/ton, up 3.14%, while SHFE zinc price was 22,295 CNY/ton, down 0.38% [41] - Tin: LME tin price was $33,355/ton, down 0.63%, and SHFE tin price was 264,540 CNY/ton, up 0.23% [43] Precious Metals - Gold: COMEX gold closed at $3,355.50/oz, down 0.44%, while SHFE gold closed at 777.02 CNY/g, up 0.45% [47]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has laid the foundation for a new production base with an annual capacity of 600,000 pieces of 8-inch silicon carbide substrates, which is expected to accelerate the release of silicon carbide substrates [7] - The company is strategically expanding its domestic and international substrate production capacity, aiming for a total of 900,000 pieces, with 650,000 pieces being 8-inch capacity, which will enhance its competitive edge through economies of scale [7] - The transition to 8-inch silicon carbide substrates is expected to significantly reduce costs, with a 35% decrease in single-chip costs and an increase in effective chip quantity by 1.8 to 1.9 times compared to 6-inch substrates [7] - The company is developing a full-chain layout for silicon carbide materials and equipment, including various types of silicon carbide crystal growth and processing equipment [7] - The company maintains a profit forecast for 2025-2027 with net profits of 2 billion, 2.2 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 17, 16, and 13 times respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 17,983 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 69.04% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is expected to be 4,558 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55.85% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 3.48 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.63 times [1] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 31,550 million yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 43.16% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Views - The fire at Covestro's German plant has led to a rapid increase in TDI prices, which may also drive up MDI prices [1] - Covestro's TDI production capacity of 300,000 tons/year is significantly impacted, affecting 30% of TDI capacity in Europe [4] - Domestic TDI prices have risen to 14,913 RMB/ton, a 6.04% increase, with expectations for further price hikes in Q3 [4] - The report anticipates that TDI price increases will lead to a rise in MDI prices, which are currently at 15,200 RMB/ton, up 1.33% [4] Industry Trends - Covestro's supply disruptions and domestic maintenance activities are tightening TDI supply, leading to increased prices [4] - The report notes that overseas TDI capacity is shrinking, with significant closures in Germany and Japan, which may benefit Chinese exporters [4] - China's TDI exports reached 51,600 tons in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 98.45%, indicating strong demand in Southeast Asia [4] - The report highlights key companies in the industry, including Wanhua Chemical, Cangzhou Dahua, and Hualu Hengsheng, with respective TDI capacities of 1,110,000 tons/year, 160,000 tons/year, and 300,000 tons/year planned for 2024 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, emphasizing the potential for growth driven by innovation and market dynamics [3][5]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from three main themes: dividends, AI intelligence, and robotics, with a recommendation to increase exposure to dividend stocks in the second half of 2025 [3][5]. - The report highlights a significant decline in passenger car insurance data, with a week-on-week decrease of 8.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.6% [2][44]. - The report anticipates a recovery in domestic demand supported by policies such as vehicle scrappage and replacement incentives, projecting a retail sales increase of 4.1% year-on-year for 2025 [45][53]. Summary by Sections Weekly Review - The second week of July saw a total of 362,000 passenger cars insured, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 8.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 19.6% [2][44]. - The best-performing segments included commercial trucks (+9.4%) and automotive parts (+4.1%), while passenger cars showed a modest increase of 1.8% [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the automotive sector's performance in A-shares ranked third among all sectors, indicating a strong recovery trend [7][14]. - Key companies such as Great Wall Motors reported a revenue of 92.367 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year profit decrease of 10.22% [3][60]. Future Outlook - The report projects that the domestic retail sales of passenger cars will reach 23.69 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [45][46]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to increase significantly, reaching 60.6% by 2025 [49][53]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are leading in technology innovation, particularly in the areas of AI and robotics, as these will be crucial for the sector's growth [3][58]. - Specific stocks recommended include those in the commercial vehicle segment and key players in the electric vehicle market [3][58].

Economic Indicators - As of July 20, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 50.13%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.91%, also down 0.01 percentage points[8] - The monthly ECI supply index for July is 50.12%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from June, and the demand index is at 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points from June[9] - The ELI index is at -0.91%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, indicating a potential acceleration in structural policy tool deployment[12] Investment and Financing - In the first half of 2025, China’s bond market issued various bonds totaling 44.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%[15] - Net financing from bonds reached 8.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 38.6% of the increase in social financing scale[15] - The average issuance rate for corporate credit bonds in June 2025 was 2.08%, down 32 basis points from the previous year[15] Consumer Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars for the week ending July 13, 2025, was 47,548 units, an increase of 4,218 units year-on-year[22] - Retail sales of passenger cars from July 1-13, 2025, totaled 571,000 units, a 7.0% increase year-on-year, but a 5.0% decrease month-on-month[22] Construction and Real Estate - The area of land supplied in 100 major cities decreased by 18.63% week-on-week, totaling 12.75 million square meters[26] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 15.63% week-on-week, amounting to 1.0916 million square meters[26] Inflation and Prices - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.65 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg from last week, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables remains at 4.38 yuan/kg[38] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $69.05/barrel, down $0.74 from the previous week, while COMEX gold futures rose to $3,351.70/ounce, up $17.62[38]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20250720 鲍威尔维护独立性令美联储 9 月难降息 2025 年 07 月 20 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《关税落地后，美国通胀为何连续不 及预期？》 2025-07-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：本周美国经济数据边际走强，"软数据"密歇根大学消费者 信心指数与"硬数据"零售销售均好于预期，美股上行；特朗普关税威 胁一度令美债利率抬升，但随后在 PPI 数据不及预期和美联储理事沃 勒的鸽派发言带动下，美债利率有所回落，10 年期美债利率全周升 0.62bps 至 4.416%。本周公布的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is entering a peak season due to sustained high temperatures, leading to increased residential and industrial electricity demand. It is expected that stable supply and rising demand may result in further increases in coal prices [1] - The report highlights a recent increase in port thermal coal prices, which rose by 10 CNY/ton to 642 CNY/ton as of July 18 [1][15] - The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim decreased by 3.09 million tons week-on-week, while the average daily outflow also saw a decline of 12.69 million tons [1][25] - The report suggests that despite a positive market sentiment, actual transactions are insufficient to support the rising coal prices [1] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.42% to 3534.48 points during the week of July 14 to July 18, while the coal sector index fell by 1.30% to 2530.07 points [10] - The total transaction amount for the coal sector was 410.86 billion CNY, a decrease of 12.44% compared to the previous week [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - As of July 18, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong South Suburb increased by 24 CNY/ton to 522 CNY/ton, while the price in Yanzhou rose by 20 CNY/ton to 890 CNY/ton [15] - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index remained stable at 664 CNY/ton as of July 16 [18] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The coal inventory in the Bohai Rim four ports increased by 4.5 million tons week-on-week, reaching 26.935 million tons [30] - The average shipping cost on domestic routes decreased by 0.24 CNY/ton to 34.83 CNY/ton [32] 4. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on resource stocks, particularly thermal coal elastic stocks, with specific attention to Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as undervalued options [36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1]. Core Insights - The autoimmune disease sector is entering the era of bispecific antibodies, with significant market potential and unmet treatment needs, projected to reach USD 119.35 billion by 2027 [4][16]. - The report highlights the advantages of bispecific antibodies in treating autoimmune diseases, including improved efficacy through dual-targeting mechanisms and reduced toxicity [20][21]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with promising bispecific antibody candidates in clinical stages, such as ZhiXiang JinTai, KangNuoYa, and KangFang Biotech [4][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The A-share pharmaceutical index has increased by 4.0% this week and 16.59% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.9% and 13.45% respectively [9]. - The H-share biotechnology index has shown a year-to-date increase of 81.80%, outperforming the Hang Seng Technology Index by 56.88% [9]. Autoimmune Diseases Entering the Bispecific Era - Bispecific antibodies can target two different antigens simultaneously, providing enhanced therapeutic effects and addressing treatment resistance [17][20]. - The report discusses the competitive landscape for bispecific antibodies in treating conditions like COPD and IBD, emphasizing the need for better treatment options [4][10]. R&D Progress and Company Dynamics - The report notes the approval of HeYuan Biotech's recombinant human serum albumin, marking a significant milestone in the domestic market [4]. - It provides a detailed overview of ongoing clinical trials and product approvals, highlighting key players in the innovation drug sector [4][11]. Market Insights and Regulatory Dynamics - The report tracks the performance of various pharmaceutical sub-sectors, noting significant gains in raw materials and chemical pharmaceuticals [9]. - It emphasizes the importance of regulatory developments and market dynamics in shaping the industry's future [4][10]. Specific Investment Recommendations - The report ranks preferred sub-sectors as follows: innovative drugs > research services > CXO > traditional Chinese medicine > medical devices > pharmacies [10]. - Specific companies to watch include ZhiXiang JinTai, KangFang Biotech, and KangNuoYa for innovative drugs, and WuXi AppTec and Aopumai for research services [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Views - The non-bank financial sector has shown strong performance, with securities firms expected to report high growth in mid-2025, and the insurance sector also showing promising results [1][4] - The report highlights the significant increase in trading volume and the positive outlook for brokerage firms, driven by an active capital market [4][18] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from long-term investment strategies and regulatory changes that enhance the allocation of insurance funds to equity assets [22][29] - The multi-financial sector is transitioning into a stable growth phase, with trust assets continuing to grow despite a decline in profits [31][36] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Subsector Performance - In the recent five trading days (July 14-18, 2025), all non-bank financial subsectors underperformed the CSI 300 index, with the securities and insurance sectors both down by 1.00% [9] - Year-to-date, the multi-financial sector has performed the best, with an increase of 11.63%, followed by the insurance sector at 10.07% [10] Securities Sector - Trading volume has significantly increased, with the average daily trading amount for July 2025 reaching 17,090 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.40% [14] - The mid-2025 earnings forecast for brokerage firms is optimistic, with 27 out of 29 listed brokerages expected to report profit increases, and 12 firms anticipating at least a 100% growth in net profit [18] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities sector is projected at 1.3x for 2025E, indicating potential for growth [21] Insurance Sector - The introduction of long-term assessment guidelines for state-owned insurance companies is expected to enhance the allocation of insurance funds to equity investments [22] - The insurance sector's valuation is currently at 0.60-0.93 times the 2025E P/EV, which is considered low historically, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating [29] - The sector is anticipated to benefit from economic recovery and rising interest rates, with a significant increase in the sales of savings-type products [51] Multi-Financial Sector - The trust industry is experiencing a stable transition, with total trust assets reaching 29.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 23.58% [31] - The futures market has seen a significant increase in trading volume and value, with June 2025 figures showing a 28.91% increase in volume and a 17.40% increase in value year-on-year [37] - Regulatory measures are being implemented to strengthen the management of local asset management companies, promoting healthy industry development [48] Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The report ranks the non-bank financial sectors as follows: insurance > securities > other multi-financial [51] - Key companies recommended include China Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, bond yields declined slightly, partially offsetting the increase from the previous week due to restrictions on rural commercial banks' bond purchases. However, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect still restricts the downward space of bond yields in the short term. There are two types of stock market bull runs: fundamental - driven and liquidity - driven. The fundamental - driven bull run causes a shift in risk preference between stocks and bonds, while the liquidity - driven bull run benefits both asset classes. Given the current economic data, the fundamental - driven bull run logic requires third - quarter data for verification and will not lead to an obvious reversal of the "stock - bond seesaw" effect but will make it difficult for bond yields to break through key points. It is expected that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield will range from 1.65% - 1.7%, presenting allocation opportunities [2][16] - Overseas markets continued the previous week's trend, with US Treasuries falling and US stocks remaining flat. The short - end of US Treasuries had a weaker upward movement than the long - end. Global central banks face challenges in coordinating policies due to regional supply - demand imbalances during the "re - globalization" process, and the view of relying on external monetary easing may underestimate the regional characteristics of this imbalance [3][17] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Viewpoints - **Bond Market Downward Space Analysis**: From July 14 - 18, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond decreased by 0.2bp from 1.666% to 1.664%. Throughout the week, various economic data and events influenced bond yields. On Monday, better - than - expected economic data led to a slight increase in bond yields, but the central bank's positive attitude towards bond - buying and liquidity injection later caused yields to decline. Tuesday's mixed economic data and a stock market decline drove bond yields down. Wednesday's rise in US CPI data slightly negatively affected the bond market. Thursday saw both the stock and bond markets oscillating. Friday's end of the tax period and the "stock - bond seesaw" effect had mixed impacts on bond yields [1][14][15] - **US Economic Data and Bond Yield Outlook**: This week, overseas markets continued the previous week's direction, with US Treasuries falling and US stocks remaining flat. The short - end of US Treasuries had a weaker upward movement than the long - end. Market concerns about Trump's tariff policies and the use of short - term US Treasuries as stablecoin reserves support the short - end of US Treasuries. Global central banks face challenges in coordinating policies due to regional supply - demand imbalances [3][17] 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open Market Operations**: From July 14 - 18, 2025, the total net injection in open - market operations was 12,011 billion yuan [36] - **Money Market Interest Rates**: Compared with the previous week, most money market interest rates remained stable, with only a slight increase in the 14 - day interest rate [38] 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **US Economic Data**: In June 2025, the US CPI exceeded market expectations, while the PPI was lower than expected. The July Michigan Consumer Index continued to rise, with the confidence index reaching a five - month high. The number of initial jobless claims continued to decline, while the number of continued claims increased slightly but was lower than expected. Fed Governor Waller hinted at potentially opposing a rate cut [5][20][21] - **Domestic Economic Data**: Steel prices increased, and the total commercial housing transaction area decreased across the board [61][64] 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 60 local bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 251.183 billion yuan, including 62.137 billion yuan in refinancing bonds, 161.424 billion yuan in new special bonds, and 27.622 billion yuan in new general bonds. The total repayment amount was 100.685 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 150.499 billion yuan. The main investment direction was comprehensive [72] - 11 provinces and cities issued local bonds this week, with Fujian, Liaoning, and Yunnan having the top three issuance amounts [77] 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - This week, the local bond stock was 52.04 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 38.5779 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.74%. The top three most actively traded provinces were Guangdong, Shandong, and Sichuan, and the top three most actively traded maturities were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [90] - The local bond yields generally declined this week [92] 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan No specific content provided. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 344 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 281.266 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 236.046 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 45.22 billion yuan, which was 43.124 billion yuan less than last week [96] - Specifically, local government financing vehicle (LGFV) bonds had a net financing amount of - 12.414 billion yuan, while industrial bonds had a net financing amount of 57.634 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing bonds had a net financing amount of - 26.401 billion yuan, medium - term notes had 47.259 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had - 37.02 billion yuan, corporate bonds had 33.198 billion yuan, and private placement notes had - 51.34 billion yuan [99][103] 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - This week, the actual issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds all decreased [110] 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - This week, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 543.018 billion yuan [111] 3.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bank bonds, short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and LGFV bonds generally declined this week [113][115][116][117] 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - This week, the credit spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and enterprise bonds all narrowed, while the credit spreads of LGFV bonds generally narrowed [118][123][126] 3.4.6 Grade Spreads - This week, the grade spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and enterprise bonds showed a differentiated trend, while the grade spreads of LGFV bonds generally widened [130][135][138] 3.4.7 Trading Activity - This week, the top five most actively traded bonds in each bond type are listed in the report, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, followed by the public utilities, finance, materials, and energy sectors [141][142] 3.4.8 Issuer Credit Rating Changes - The credit ratings or outlooks of several companies, including Qingdao Caito Group Co., Ltd. and Wuhan East Lake High - tech Group Co., Ltd., were upgraded this week [146]