Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of RMB52, implying a 56.6% upside from the current price of RMB33.20 [1][3] Core View - Wingtech is transitioning to a semiconductor-focused company, positioning itself for long-term value creation despite short-term financial setbacks [1] - The company expects a net loss of RMB3.5-4.55bn in FY24, primarily due to one-off impairments related to the sale of its ODM business, write-down on deferred tax assets, and goodwill impairments [1] - The semiconductor business showed resilience in FY24, with sequential revenue growth in 2Q and 3Q, and single-digit YoY growth in 4Q despite seasonal softness [7] - Wingtech's ODM business improved in 4Q, turning profitable excluding impairments, but remains a low-margin segment [7] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow 18.1% YoY in FY24 to RMB72.3bn, with further growth of 10.9% and 5.8% projected for FY25 and FY26, respectively [2] - Gross margin declined to 10.4% in FY24E from 16.1% in FY23A, but is expected to recover to 13.2% and 14.8% in FY25E and FY26E [2] - Net profit is forecasted to rebound strongly in FY25E, growing 186.4% YoY to RMB2.61bn, followed by 45.0% growth in FY26E to RMB3.78bn [2] - Operating profit is expected to increase 155.6% YoY in FY25E to RMB4.18bn, driven by the company's transformation and semiconductor focus [2] Business Segments - The ODM business accounted for 17% market share in 1H24, ranking third among top players in China, down 3ppts YoY [7] - Semiconductor revenue grew sequentially in FY24, with 2Q and 3Q showing 10% and 15% QoQ growth, respectively [7] - China contributed ~40% of total semiconductor revenue in FY24, offsetting overseas weakness due to inventory correction [7] - Auto revenue currently accounts for 60% of total semiconductor revenue, with overseas OEMs expected to resume restocking in 2025 [7] Valuation and Outlook - Wingtech's valuation is expected to benefit from increasing semiconductor revenue share, robust domestic auto demand, and a re-rating opportunity as it transforms into a semi-centric company [7] - The target price of RMB52 corresponds to 24.8x FY25E P/E, based on unchanged financial forecasts [7] - The company's market cap stands at RMB41.26bn, with an average 3-month turnover of RMB1.68bn [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for JD.com, with a target price of US$53.20, indicating a potential upside of 36.4% from the current price of US$39.00 [3][11]. Core Insights - JD.com is expected to report solid results for 4Q24, with total revenue projected at RMB334.6 billion, reflecting a 9.3% year-over-year growth, which is 3% above Bloomberg consensus. This growth is attributed to the nationwide home appliance trade-in program, JD's strong GMV exposure in the home appliance category, and robust supply chain capabilities [1][8]. - Non-GAAP net profit is anticipated to grow by 13.2% year-over-year, exceeding consensus estimates by 16%, driven by gross margin expansion and optimized sales and marketing costs [1][8]. - The report emphasizes that JD.com is well-positioned to benefit from the trade-in program in the short term, while long-term growth will depend on sustainable earnings and enhanced shareholder returns [1][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24E, JD.com is projected to achieve revenue of RMB1,146.4 billion, a 5.7% increase from FY23A, with non-GAAP net profit expected to reach RMB46.1 billion [2][9]. - The adjusted net profit for FY24E is forecasted at RMB46.1 billion, with an adjusted EPS of RMB29.05 [2][9]. - Revenue growth is expected to continue into FY25E at RMB1,218.0 billion, representing a 6.2% increase, and further to RMB1,278.0 billion in FY26E, with a growth rate of 4.9% [2][9]. Segment Performance - The Electronics and Home Appliance (E&HA) segment is projected to see a 10% year-over-year revenue growth in 4Q24, supported by the trade-in program [7][8]. - JD Retail (JDR) is expected to report segment revenue of RMB294.0 billion in 4Q24, up 9.8% year-over-year, with operating profit anticipated to increase by 28% year-over-year [7][8]. Forecast Revisions - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised upward by 1-2%, and non-GAAP net profit forecasts have been increased by 2-8%, primarily due to improved expectations for the E&HA segment and better gross margin forecasts [8][9]. - The gross margin for FY24E is projected at 15.9%, with non-GAAP net margin expected to be 4.0% [9][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 11.1x for FY24E, decreasing to 9.1x by FY26E, reflecting a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [2][9]. - The DCF-based target price of US$53.20 is based on a WACC of 11.8% and a terminal growth rate of 1.5% [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for WuXi Biologics, with a target price raised from HK$22.88 to HK$24.24, indicating a potential upside of 36.6% from the current price of HK$17.74 [3][8]. Core Insights - WuXi Biologics added 151 new projects in 2024, the highest in its history, with over half from the US, showcasing strong global competitiveness and client trust [1][8]. - The company is set to receive US$140 million in near-term payments from enabling discovery services for 7 global projects in 2024, highlighting lucrative milestone income [1][8]. - The Ireland site is on track to achieve breakeven in 2025, and the company plans to expand its drug substance capacity significantly, with a focus on establishing a comprehensive global production network [1][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 17,034 million in FY23A to RMB 20,687 million in FY25E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.4% [2][18]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB 4,739 million in FY24E to RMB 5,358 million in FY25E, representing a growth of 13.0% [2][18]. - The adjusted EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 1.15 in FY24E to RMB 1.30 in FY25E, with a P/E ratio decreasing from 14.3x in FY24E to 12.7x in FY25E [2][18]. Project Pipeline and Growth - The company’s project pipeline now includes 817 projects, with a significant increase in process performance qualification (PPQ) projects expected to grow by 31% YoY to 101 in 2025 [1][8]. - WuXi Biologics completed 77 PPQ projects in 2024, marking a 26% increase year-on-year, indicating strong momentum for future growth in CMO revenue [1][8]. Overseas Operations - The Ireland biologics facility has shown strong client demand trends, successfully completing multiple 16k-liter PPQ batch productions, supporting profitability targets for 2025 [1][8]. - WuXi Biologics is constructing a new 36k-liter drug substance capacity facility in the US, aiming to expand total drug substance capacity to 491k liters, with approximately 49% located overseas [1][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi Biologics, reflecting a positive outlook based on demand recovery and growth potential [4][28]. Core Insights - WuXi Biologics achieved a record addition of 151 new projects in 2024, with over half coming from the United States, indicating strong global competitiveness and client trust [2][3]. - The company expects revenue and adjusted profit (excluding minority interests) to grow by 5%-10% in 2024, with accelerated growth anticipated in 2025 [1][4]. - The unique CRDMO business model continues to drive significant milestone revenue, with $140 million in recent payments expected from seven global projects [3][4]. - The company is expanding its global manufacturing network, with a focus on achieving breakeven at its Ireland site in 2025 and increasing drug substance capacity in the U.S. [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 18,236 million in FY24E to RMB 20,687 million in FY25E, representing a 13.4% increase [5][12]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from RMB 4,739 million in FY24E to RMB 5,358 million in FY25E, reflecting a 13.0% growth [5][12]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from RMB 1.15 in FY24E to RMB 1.30 in FY25E [5][12]. Target Price Adjustment - The target price has been raised from HKD 22.88 to HKD 24.24 based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.64% and a terminal growth rate of 2.0% [4][6].

17 Jan 2025 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 爱奇艺 (IQ US) 会员和广告业务仍然面临压力 ； 关注短剧的发展 我们预计爱奇艺2024年第四季度总收入将同比下降14%，至66亿元人民币，这 与我们之前的预期和市场共识基本一致。收入下降主要是由于10月2024年的内 容较少以及交易抵账收入的减少（对毛利润影响较小）；总体来看，内容方面 的影响相对有限。 Wo 几部关键剧集推出后 ， 演出开始恢复 ， 如 石兴经 在11月，我们预计2024年第四季度非GAAP运营利润将环比增长7%，达到人民 币3.95亿元，超出我们之前的预期（人民币3.60亿元），这得益于严格的内容 成本控制。展望2025年，我们预计在线视频市场竞争仍将激烈，因此对未来的 收入和盈利复苏持更为谨慎的态度。我们将2025-2026财年的总收入预测下调7 %-10%，并将目标价调整至3.00美元，基于2025财年12倍市盈率（之前为基于 15倍市盈率的4.50美元）。维持买入评级。 内容性能从 11 月起开始恢复。 按板块划分：1）我们估计会员收入将在2024 年第四季度同比下降15%，环比下降6%，达到人民币41 ...

iQIYI (IQ US) Membership and ad businesses remain under pressure; eye on short-drama development We expect iQiyi's 4Q24E total revenue to decline by 14% YoY to RMB6.6bn, largely in line with our previous expectation and consensus. The decrease was primarily due to the light content slate in Oct 2024 and the decline in revenue from barter transactions (minor impact on gross profit); but overall content performance started to recover after the launch of several key dramas like Wo Shi Xing Jing in Nov. We fore ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Baidu, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [3][20]. Core Insights - Baidu is expected to experience a 4.8% year-over-year decline in total revenue for 4Q24, with a non-GAAP net income of RMB4.7 billion, influenced by a one-off impact from an equity investee [1][7]. - Cloud revenue growth is anticipated to be a bright spot, driven by strong demand in GPU cloud services, while the recovery pace of advertising revenue remains critical [1][7]. - The target price has been adjusted down by 6% to US$144.6, reflecting a more subdued recovery in the advertising business [1][11]. Revenue and Profitability - For FY24E, total revenue is projected at RMB132.3 billion, a slight decline from FY23A's RMB134.6 billion, with a forecasted growth of 3.2% in FY25E [2][9]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to decrease by 13% in FY24E to RMB25.0 billion, with a recovery to RMB26.0 billion in FY25E [2][9]. - The adjusted EPS for FY24E is forecasted at RMB71.47, with a consensus EPS of RMB72.60 for the same period [2][9]. Segment Performance - Baidu Core is projected to generate revenue of RMB26.9 billion in 4Q24, down 2.3% year-over-year, primarily due to an 8% decline in core advertising revenue [7][8]. - The cloud business is expected to grow by 13% year-over-year in 4Q24, improving from previous quarters, driven by AI GPU-related revenue [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The SOTP-based target price of US$144.6 per ADS translates to a 14x 2025E non-GAAP PE, or 7x if excluding net cash [11][12]. - The valuation breakdown includes US$49.1 for Baidu Core, US$0.3 for Apollo ASD, and US$32.6 for Baidu Cloud [11][12]. Cash Position - As of the end of 3Q24, Baidu had approximately RMB144.5 billion in cash on hand, equating to about US$57 per ADS [1][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to HKD 69.19, up from HKD 66.15, indicating a potential upside of 33.8% from the current price of HKD 51.70 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company has shown impressive online growth in 2024, with a projected revenue increase of over 50% and a net profit growth of around 40%. The GMV for its brands, 可复美 and 可丽金, reached RMB 5.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57% across major online platforms [1][6]. - The report highlights the strong performance of 可复美 on Tmall and Taobao, with a GMV growth of 42%, ranking second in the market. The anticipated approval of a new collagen injection product is expected to further drive growth in 2025 [1][6]. - 可丽金 is also experiencing rapid growth, with a GMV of RMB 660 million in 2024, reflecting a 103% year-on-year increase, driven by key product launches [1][6]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3,524 million in FY23 to RMB 5,406 million in FY24, representing a growth rate of 53.4%. The adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1,451.8 million in FY23 to RMB 2,108.6 million in FY24, a growth of 45.2% [2][36]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, with revenue estimates for FY25 and FY26 at RMB 7,288 million and RMB 9,729 million, respectively, indicating continued strong growth [2][36]. - The company’s net debt ratio is projected to increase, reflecting a shift towards a more leveraged capital structure as it invests in growth opportunities [2][36].

交易概述 2025年1月15日，北京赛目科技股份有限公司（以下简称"赛目科技"或"公司"，股票代号: 2571.HK） 成功于香港联交所挂牌上市。招银国际担任赛目科技香港首次公开发行的联席账簿管理人及联席牵头经办 人。 赛目科技此次全球发行33,333,400股H股（占紧随全球发售完成后已发行股份总数约25.0%，假设超额配售权未 获行使），发行价格定于每股H股12.99港元，总募集金额约4.33亿港元（假设超额配售权未获行使）。 赛目科技是中国一家专注于智能网联汽车（"ICV"）仿真测试技术的科技公司，主要从事ICV仿真测试产品的设计 及研发并提供相关测试、验证和评价解决方案。公司亦已开始将公司技术的应用扩展至其他行业。公司的客户主 要包括中国政府、国有企业以及知名汽车制造商和科技公司。根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，按2023年的收入计， 公司是中国ICV仿真测试软件及平台市场的最大市场参与者，市场份额达约5.9%。公司通过自主创新，目前已形 成全栈ICV测试、验证和评价的技术能力。 公司已推出多款创新产品，包括自主研发并商业化的ICV仿真测试、验证和评价工具链SimPro、自主研发用于 ICV的FuSa和SO ...

宏观策略 中国经济 - 信贷增速见底回升但不平衡 近期政策刺激之后，政府债券净融资和住房与耐用品销售回暖，信贷增速开始触底反弹，12月社会融资存量、 住户中长期贷款和M2增速均有所回升。但企业信贷需求延续走弱，新增贷款和债券净融资仍在萎缩，由于产能 过剩和通缩压力，私营企业资本支出疲软。 展望未来，货币政策将保持宽松。上半年存款准备金率可能下调 50 个基点。下半年政策利率可能下调20-30 个基点，因可能的特朗普冲击和前期政策刺激效应减弱。社会融资规模和人民币贷款余额增速可能从 2024 年 底的8% 和 7.6% 小幅升至2025 年底的8% 和 8.1%。 公司点评 百济神州（ONC US，买入，目标价：282.71美元）-转折点到来：预计2025年实现经营利润转正 百济预计在2025年实现GAAP下的经营利润盈亏平衡。非GAAP下的经营利润在3Q24达到了6600万美元。这 是连续第二个季度实现非GAAP盈利。此外，百济在3Q24实现了1.88亿美元的经营活动现金流入，这是公司 首次报告正向的季度经营现金流。百济将在今年二月年报电话会上提供2025年全年的收入和盈利指引。 行业点评 中国科技行业 - ...