Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a buy rating on FUTLAN/FTLNHDs [2] Core Viewpoints - China's export growth is expected to decelerate from 5.9% in 2024 to 2% in 2025, while import growth may mildly slow down from 1.1% to 0.5%. The USD/RMB rate may appreciate from the current 7.15 to 7.1 by year-end [2][14] - Seazen shows improving access to the CBICL-guaranteed bond market, with lengthened tenors and lower funding costs, and has relieved near-term refinancing pressure [7][8] Summary by Directory Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, NWDEVL 27 - 31s and NWDEVL Perps rose 1.8 - 4.5pts and 1 - 1.5pts respectively on rumors and reports. CNH SWIPROs were largely unchanged. Swire Pacific 1H25 revenue rose 15.7% yoy to HKD45.77bn, while operating profit was down 62.4% yoy to HKD1.86bn. In Chinese properties, LNGFOR 27 - 32s/ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.2pt lower to 0.1pt higher. Longfor begins phased early repayment of offshore syndicated loan. ROADKG failed to obtain bondholder consent. China IG was 0 - 2bps tighter. In Macau gaming, related bonds were 0.1pt lower to 0.1pt higher. Wynn Macau 2Q25 operating revenue was flat yoy, while MGM China 1H25 adjusted EBITDA slipped 1.4% yoy. TW lifers were 1 - 3bps wider. Japanese AT1s and insurance hybrids edged up c0.25pt, SOFTBKs were up 0.1 - 0.7pt. SoftBank Group 1Q26 net sales rose 7% yoy to JPY1.82tn. Korea space was largely unchanged, except HYNMTR 30s tightened 1bp [1] - This morning, the new CNH paper XYDXIV moved 0.5pt higher, while other CNH new issues remained largely unchanged. MTRC Perps were up c0.1pt. China IGs and Thailand BBLTB tightened 1 - 2bps, while LGENSOs widened 1 - 2bps [2] - Yankee AT1s continued to move up slowly. In SEA, VEDLN 28 - 33s were unchanged to 0.2pt higher. KBANK 31s were 2bps tighter and BBLTB unchanged. PETMKs were unchanged to 2bps wider [3] FUTLAN/FTLNHDs - The 8th tranche of CBICL - guaranteed bond. Maintain buy on FUTLAN/FTLNHDs. FTLNHD 4 5/8 10/15/25 was 0.2pt higher this morning [2] - Provide details of FUTLAN/FTLNHDs including Amt o/s, Maturity, Coupon, Offer price, and YTM [6] Seazen - On 4 Aug'25, Seazen issued the 8th tranche of CBILC - guaranteed bond with an issue size of RMB1bn, 5 - year tenor, and a coupon rate of 2.68%. The tenor has lengthened from 3 - year to 5 - year and the funding cost has trended lower. Proceeds will be used for project developments and repaying offshore debts. It has a RMB1bn bond maturing on 13 Sep'25 [7] - In Jun'25, Seazen completed partial tender offers and a concurrent new issue of 3 - year USD300mn bond, relieving near - term refinancing pressure. Its high - quality IPs, secured financing headroom, and growing recurring income offer financial flexibility for refinancing in the coming 2 - 3 years [8] China Economy - China's exports rebounded despite a contraction in exports to the US, with ASEAN and Africa making up for 129% of the US loss since Apr. Exports of motor vehicles and chips were strong, while ships, personal computers, and cell phones softened. Imports rebounded due to robust AI - related demand, and soybean imports from the US rebounded. However, there are headwinds in 2H25 for exports [9] - In July, exports edged up to 7.2% yoy, with exports to the US further slumping to - 21.7%. Shipments to Africa accelerated to 42.4%, and exports to ASEAN remained at 16.6%. Exports to the EU, Australia, Korea, and Canada rebounded. Trade surplus narrowed to US$98bn. Exports of transport equipment and tech products polarized. Imports increased to 4.1% yoy, with strong AI - related demand. Import volume of some energy products, machine tools, etc. dropped, while crops rebounded. Soybean imports from the US rebounded [11][12][13] New Issues - No offshore new issues were priced today [16] - There are no offshore new issues in the pipeline today [17] News and Market Color - Regarding onshore primary issuances, 152 credit bonds were issued yesterday with an amount of RMB148bn. Month - to - date, 501 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB507bn, a 17.6% yoy increase [19] - AVIC plans to take direct control of AVIC International Leasing via an equity restructure. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics will be exempt from 100% US tariffs on semiconductors. Longfor begins phased early repayment of HKD9.3bn offshore syndicated loan. MGM China 1H25 adjusted EBITDA slipped 1.4% yoy to HKD4.9bn. Mongolian Mining expects a consolidated net loss of USD15 - 25mn for 1H25. New World Development dismisses take - private reports. ORIX 1QFY26 revenue rose 8.5% yoy to JPY768.6bn. Rakuten Group will early redeem JPY16.8bn RAKUTN 1.81 11/04/55 on 4 Nov'25. Road King fails to obtain bondholder consent. SoftBank Group 1QFY26 net sales rose 7% yoy to JPY1.8tn. Wynn Macau 2Q25 operating revenue was down 0.2% yoy to USD883.5m [19]

Macro Economic Overview - China's exports exceeded expectations in July, driven by increased shipments to ASEAN and Africa, compensating for a 129% loss in exports to the US [4] - The forecast for China's export growth is expected to slow from 5.9% in 2024 to 2% in 2025, with imports also projected to decelerate slightly [4] Industry Insights - The automotive industry saw a reduction in average discounts in July, with a 0.3 percentage point decrease to 15.1%, primarily due to reduced discounts from German luxury brands [5] - New energy vehicle competition is intensifying, leading to a differentiation among traditional domestic brands, with Geely's discount rate rising to 11.2% [7] - The express delivery industry in Guangdong has set a minimum price of 1.4 RMB per package, which may serve as a model for other regions, potentially leading to price increases in the next 3-6 months [8] Company Analysis - Datadog reported a robust 2Q25 performance with total revenue of $826.8 million, a 28% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations [10] - BeiGene achieved total product revenue of $2.43 billion in the first half of 2025, a 45% increase year-on-year, driven by strong sales of its drug, Zebrutinib [11][12] - The company maintains a positive outlook on its CDK4 inhibitor, anticipating significant data releases by the end of the year [13] Stock Recommendations - Geely Automobile is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 24.00 HKD, representing a 31% upside potential [15] - BeiGene is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of $359.47, indicating a 21% upside potential [15] - Datadog is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of $162.00, reflecting a positive long-term business outlook [10]

Macro Economic Overview - The US economy shows signs of stagnation with July's service PMI nearly flat, indicating a slowdown in business activity and order demand [2] - Manufacturing PMI has dropped to a near one-year low, with employment contraction reaching a new high, while price expansion has slowed but remains significantly above post-pandemic averages [2] - Import indices and inventories are contracting, suggesting the end of a purchasing spree to avoid tariffs [2] Industry Insights - The cloud services sector is experiencing accelerated revenue growth among leading US cloud providers, with Amazon AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure showing a combined year-on-year revenue growth of 23% in Q2 2025 [6] - Capital expenditure among leading cloud firms is being adjusted upwards due to strong demand, although supply constraints are expected to persist for the next six months [6] - AI-related capital investments are impacting profit margins, but operational efficiencies in core businesses are helping to mitigate these effects [6] Company Analysis - Xiaomi Group is expected to report strong Q2 2025 results, with revenue and adjusted net profit projected to grow by 32% and 66% year-on-year, reaching RMB 117 billion and RMB 10.3 billion respectively [7] - The growth drivers for Xiaomi include robust smartphone sales, strong demand for electric vehicles, and favorable policies for IoT [7] - The target price for Xiaomi is set at HKD 66.0, reflecting a P/E ratio of 34.4 for 2025 [7] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a buy with a target price of HKD 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 31% [8] - Luckin Coffee is also rated as a buy with a target price of USD 44.95, suggesting an 18% upside [8] - Tencent (700 HK) is rated as a buy with a target price of HKD 660.00, indicating a 16% potential increase [8]

Economic Indicators - The US services PMI stagnated at 50.1 in July, down from 50.8 in June, significantly below the market expectation of 51.5[3] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 48 in July, down from 49 in June, also below the expected 49.5, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[4] - The employment index in the services sector dropped to 46.4, indicating a significant contraction in hiring[4] Inflation and Employment - The price index for services rose to 69.9, close to levels seen at the end of 2022, indicating heightened inflationary pressures[4] - The expected CPI growth may rebound, complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to balance employment and inflation[3] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly in Q3, with inflation expected to rebound, leading to potential interest rate cuts in October and December[3] Market Expectations - Following the PMI data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts decreased by 5 basis points to 58 basis points for the year[3] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain interest rates in September, with potential cuts in October and December, targeting a year-end policy rate of 3.75%-4%[3]

Global Economic Overview - The global economy is experiencing a slowdown with diverging growth rates and increasing inflation disparities, leading to differentiated monetary policies across countries [1][3] - The US aims to attract industrial investment through high tariffs, a small government, low tax rates, and low oil prices, while China plans to moderately expand fiscal stimulus and support for households [1][3] United States - The US GDP growth is projected to decline from 2% in the first half of the year to 1.3% in Q3 and 1% in Q4, with a further drop to 1.6% in 2025 [1][4] - Unemployment is expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.5% by year-end, while inflation is anticipated to rebound slightly before gradually decreasing [1][6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates twice in Q4, with the 10-year Treasury yield forecasted to decrease from 4.5% to 4.1% by year-end [1][9] United Kingdom - The UK economy is forecasted to slow down, with GDP growth decreasing from 1.3% in Q1 to 0.9% in Q4, and a projected decline to 1% in 2025 [1][14] - Inflation is expected to rise initially before declining, with CPI growth peaking at 3.6% in Q3 and falling to 3.2% in Q4 [1][17] - The Bank of England may lower interest rates once in Q4 and twice in the following year, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to decrease from 4.6% to 4.35% by year-end [1][21] Eurozone - The Eurozone is also facing economic slowdown, with GDP growth projected to fall from 1.5% in Q1 to 0.9% in Q4, and a slight recovery to 1.2% in 2026 [1][1] - Inflation is expected to decrease, with CPI growth declining from 2.3% in Q1 to 1.8% in Q4 [1][1] - The European Central Bank is anticipated to cut interest rates once in the second half of the year, with the 10-year AAA bond yield expected to rise from 2.75% to 2.9% by year-end [1][1] Japan - Japan's economy is projected to slow down, with GDP growth decreasing from 1.7% in Q1 to 0.4% in Q4, and a slight recovery to 0.9% in 2025 [1][1] - Inflation is expected to decline, with CPI growth falling from 3.8% in Q1 to 2.1% in Q4 [1][1] - The Bank of Japan is likely to delay interest rate hikes until January 2026, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to rise from 1.57% to 1.7% by year-end [1][1] China - China's GDP growth is forecasted to decrease from 5.4% in Q1 to 4.6% in Q4, with a further decline to 4.9% in 2025 [1][1] - Inflation is expected to fluctuate, with CPI growth projected to drop to -0.2% in Q3 before rising to 1% in Q4 [1][1] - The Chinese government plans to moderately expand fiscal stimulus, with a broad deficit rate expected to rise from 6.6% in 2024 to 9% in 2026 [1][1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the cloud and AI sectors [4][34]. Core Insights - The growth of cloud business for leading US cloud vendors is becoming a significant driver for stock price increases, with a notable acceleration in revenue growth observed in 2Q25 [4][21]. - The overall cloud business revenue for Amazon AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure grew by 23% year-over-year in 2Q25, up from 20% in 1Q25 and 21% in 2Q24, with Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure showing more pronounced acceleration [4][3]. - Capital expenditures for leading cloud vendors have been increased due to strong demand signals, with a total of $95 billion in capital expenditures reported for 2Q25, a 67% increase year-over-year [3][4]. - AI-related investments are impacting profit margins, with some companies experiencing a decline in segment profit margins while overall operating margins improve due to enhanced operational efficiency in other core businesses [4][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue Growth - Google Cloud's revenue grew by 32% year-over-year to $13.6 billion in 2Q25, driven by strong demand for GCP core and AI products [3][28]. - Microsoft Azure and other cloud services saw a 39% year-over-year revenue increase in 2Q25, exceeding previous guidance [15][34]. - Amazon AWS reported revenue of $30.9 billion in 2Q25, a 17.5% increase year-over-year [21][27]. Capital Expenditures - Total capital expenditures for Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta reached $95 billion in 2Q25, reflecting a 67% year-over-year increase [3][4]. - Google raised its FY25 capital expenditure guidance to $85 billion, a 62% increase year-over-year, to meet strong cloud demand [28][4]. - Meta's capital expenditure is projected to be between $66 billion and $72 billion for FY25, a growth of 68%-84% year-over-year [12][34]. Profit Margins - Despite a decline in segment profit margins for Microsoft and Amazon, overall operating margins improved due to efficiency gains in other business units [4][19]. - Meta's operating profit margin is expected to decline by approximately 1 percentage point in FY25 due to rising depreciation and personnel costs, partially offset by revenue growth from AI [11][12]. - Google Cloud's operating profit margin improved by 9 percentage points year-over-year to 20.7% in 2Q25, aided by strong revenue growth [28][4].

Global Market Overview - Major global stock markets showed positive performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,903, up 1.61% for the day and 24.14% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.29%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 23.57% [1] - The US markets experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 1.20% and the S&P 500 down 0.98% [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 2.00%, with a year-to-date rise of 27.05% [2] - The Hang Seng Property Index rose by 1.35%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 22.31% [2] Chinese Stock Market Insights - The Chinese stock market saw gains, particularly in healthcare, materials, and information technology sectors, while real estate and consumer sectors lagged [3] - Southbound capital inflow reached a four-month high of 23.43 billion HKD [3] - A forecast for the A-share market indicated strong performance for upstream companies in non-ferrous metals and chemicals due to rising product prices [3] Company Analysis: Yum China - Yum China maintained its full-year guidance, with Q2 sales increasing by 4% to 2.79 billion USD and net profit rising by 1% to 215 million USD, aligning with market expectations [4] - The company reported a gross margin of 70.9% and an operating profit margin of 10.9%, both exceeding market expectations [4] - The management set a conservative same-store sales growth target for the second half of the year, citing macroeconomic instability and cautious consumer behavior [5] Company Analysis: China Tower - China Tower's H1 2025 results met expectations, with revenue growing by 2.8% year-on-year to 49.6 billion RMB and net profit increasing by 8.0% to 5.8 billion RMB [5] - The net profit margin improved to 11.6%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [5] - The company announced an interim dividend of 0.13 RMB per share, enhancing shareholder returns [5] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK) rated as "Buy" with a target price of 24.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 32% [6] - Tencent (700 HK) also rated as "Buy" with a target price of 660.00 HKD, suggesting a 17% upside [6] - Alibaba (BABA US) rated as "Buy" with a target price of 141.20 USD, indicating a potential increase of 21% [6]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,903, up 1.61% for the day and 24.14% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.29%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 23.57% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.62%, with a year-to-date performance of 7.93% [1] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index gained 2.00% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 27.05% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index rose by 1.35%, showing a year-to-date performance of 22.31% [2] - The Hang Seng Utilities Index had a modest increase of 0.53%, with a year-to-date performance of 3.93% [2] Chinese Market Insights - Chinese stocks saw gains, with healthcare, materials, and information technology sectors leading the way [3] - Southbound capital inflow reached a net buy of HKD 23.43 billion, marking a four-month high [3] - A-shares in the banking and steel sectors showed significant gains, while biopharmaceuticals and computers lagged [3] Company Analysis: Yum China - Yum China maintained its full-year guidance, with Q2 sales up 4% year-on-year to USD 2.79 billion, and net profit up 1% to USD 215 million [4] - The company reported a gross margin of 70.9% and an operating profit margin of 10.9%, both exceeding market expectations [4] - The management set a conservative same-store sales growth target for the second half of the year, citing macroeconomic instability [5] Company Analysis: China Tower - China Tower's H1 2025 results met expectations, with revenue growth of 2.8% year-on-year to RMB 49.6 billion and net profit growth of 8.0% to RMB 5.8 billion [5] - The EBITDA increased by 3.6% to RMB 34.2 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 69.0% [5] - The company announced an interim dividend of RMB 0.13 per share, enhancing shareholder returns [5] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK) rated as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 32% [6] - Tencent (700 HK) also rated as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 660.00, suggesting a 17% upside [6] - Alibaba (BABA US) rated as "Buy" with a target price of USD 141.20, indicating a potential increase of 21% [6]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is projected to experience a nominal GDP growth rate of approximately 5% in 2024, followed by a slight decline to 4.9% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026 due to tariff impacts and diminishing policy effects[64] - China's economic recovery is characterized by fluctuations, with GDP growth expected to rise from 4.6% in Q3 2024 to 5.4% in Q1 2025, before declining again[64] Stock Market Performance - In the economic contraction phase, stocks generally decline significantly, with essential consumption, energy, utilities, and healthcare sectors outperforming, while real estate and technology sectors lag behind[18] - During the economic recovery phase, stocks in discretionary consumption, real estate, technology, and materials sectors show the highest gains, while utilities and essential consumption sectors underperform[18] Sector Analysis - In the economic expansion phase, technology, finance, and real estate sectors tend to outperform, while utilities, essential consumption, and healthcare sectors underperform[18] - Average annual returns for the consumer discretionary sector during the recovery phase are 40.8%, with a market outperformance rate of 64.5%[15] Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators include consumer confidence, manufacturing orders, and employment rates, which are closely linked to stock market performance[28][29] - The U.S. consumer confidence index has a direct correlation with the S&P 500 index, indicating that increased consumer confidence typically leads to stock market gains[27] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy is influenced by the Taylor rule, which incorporates inflation rates and unemployment levels to determine the federal funds rate[43] - High fiscal deficit rates combined with low household savings rates contribute to high inflation and interest rates in the U.S. economy[46] Currency and International Relations - The U.S. dollar index is expected to fluctuate, potentially dropping below 95, with a slight rebound anticipated towards the end of the year[55] - The relationship between the U.S.-China nominal GDP growth rates and interest rate differentials will influence the USD/CNY exchange rate, with projections suggesting a slight appreciation of the yuan[114] Investment Strategy - The S&P 500 is forecasted to rise by 3% in the second half of the year and 8.5% for the entire year, with a favorable outlook on sectors such as information technology, communication services, finance, healthcare, and essential consumption[50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the IG space opened 5 - 10bps wider with a cautious tone, and various bonds had different price movements. For example, TH bank BBLTB sub - curve and TW lifers gradually recovered and closed 1 - 3bps wider. In Chinese properties, GRNLGR 28 - 31s dropped 1.0 - 2.9pts [1]. - This morning, MTRC Perps were up 0.2pt, ADSEZ 31 - 41s and ADGREG 42s rose 0.6 - 2pts, while CKINF 4/4.2 Perps decreased 1pt [2]. - AVIC launched a tender offer and consent solicitation for its USD300mn AVICCP 2.375 02/09/26 at par, and is soliciting consent from bondholders for two modifications [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - The IG space opened 5 - 10bps wider. TH bank BBLTB sub - curve and TW lifers closed 1 - 3bps wider. Lower - beta papers with 4.5% yield or below and front - end papers were heavily traded. FRESHK 26 - 28s had a spread change of 7bps tighter to 3bps wider. In Macau gaming, different bonds had price changes ranging from unchanged to +1pt. Among greater China higher - beta credits, Perps moved higher. There were block selling on FRNs of China leasing/securities houses and two - way flows on EU/Japan banks FRNs. Yankee AT1s recovered. In Chinese properties, GRNLGR, LNGFOR, and VNKRLE bonds dropped, while LIFUNGs rose. In the SEA, MEDCIJ 28 - 29s were unchanged to 0.1pt lower, and VEDLN 28 - 33s were unchanged to 0.2pts higher [1]. Analyst Comments - AVIC launched a tender offer and consent solicitation for AVICCP 2.375 02/09/26 at par. It failed to furnish audited FY24 financial statements and expects to be unable to provide unaudited 1H25 financial statements on time. It is soliciting consent for two modifications: removing the financial statement requirement and adding an early redemption option. The offer expires on 15 Aug'25, and two bondholder meetings will be held on 26 Aug'25. The tender offer settlement is on 29 Aug'25. The resolutions are binding if passed and the eligibility condition is met. The tender offer can be an opportunity for investors to switch to other Chinese IG names [6][7][9]. Macro News Recap - On Monday, S&P (+1.47%), Dow (+1.34%), and Nasdaq (+1.95%) were higher, and UST yield was lower with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.69%/3.75%/4.22%/4.80% [5]. Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top Performers included GWFOOD 3.258 10/29/30 (price 86.3, change 2.4), WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 (price 92.8, change 1.3), etc. Top Underperformers included GRNLGR 6.9 02/12/29 (price 20.1, change - 2.9), GRNLGR 8 1/4 01/22/31 (price 20.1, change - 2.9), etc. [4]. Offshore Asia New Issues - **Priced**: No Offshore Asia New Issues Priced Today [12]. - **Pipeline**: Licheng International Development plans a 3 - year issue with a 5.5% pricing and is unrated. Macquarie Bank plans an 11NC10 issue with a pricing of T + 170 and has an issue rating of A3/BBB+/BBB+ [13]. News and Market Color - Regarding onshore primary issuances, 85 credit bonds were issued yesterday with an amount of RMB66bn. Month - to - date, 130 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB149bn, a 4.4% yoy increase. S&P revised the outlook of Adani Electricity Mumbai to stable from negative, affirmed BBB - rating [14]. - S&P revised the outlook of Adani Green Energy RG2 to stable from negative, affirmed BB+ rating; revised the outlook of Adani Ports to positive from negative, affirmed BBB - rating. Agile plans to deliver a preliminary restructuring proposal to offshore creditors in 3Q25. Ant Group will exit India's Paytm by selling its 5.84% stake for up to INR38bn (cUSD434mn). Road King bondholder group can block revised consent solicitation. SK Telecom will help develop a South Korean ChatGPT challenger. SK On will focus on cutting - edge technology [21].