宏观策略 美国经济 - 服务业PMI加速扩张，市场对通胀担忧上升 12月美国服务业PMI加速扩张，企业为关税提前做准备带动商业活动大幅增加。物价指数反弹至2024年1月以 来新高，可能是由于年末的价格暂时性波动。制造业PMI延续收缩但保持改善趋势，生产和需求均有所改善。 制造业就业仍然疲软，企业延续去库存周期。11月职位空缺数意外上升，聘用率和主动离职率下降，裁员率保 持历史低位。 由于服务业PMI中价格指数大幅上涨，市场担忧通胀重新反弹，投资者预期联储降息空间缩小，美国10年期国 债收益率升至4.68%，创近一年新高，美股和黄金价格走弱。 壹 壹隆環球 招银国际互联网证券交易平台 我们认为通胀上半年可能温和下降，因为同比基数较高、二手车与能源价格下跌和房租通胀补跌，但特朗普政 策可能推升中期通胀不确定性。通胀不确定性推升美债收益率，令估值处于高位的美股承压。我们预计联邦基 金利率目标将从 2024 年底的 4.25%-4.5%下降 50 个基点至 2025 年底的3.75%-4.0%。美联储可能在 1 月暂停降息，3 月或 5 月降息 1 次 25 个基点，9 月再降息 1次 25 个基点。 行业点评 中国 ...

12月美国服务业PMI加速扩张，企业为关税提前做准备带动商业活动大幅增加。物价指数反弹至2024年1月以 来新高，可能是由于年末的价格暂时性波动。制造业PMI延续收缩但保持改善趋势，生产和需求均有所改善。 制造业就业仍然疲软，企业延续去库存周期。11月职位空缺数意外上升，聘用率和主动离职率下降，裁员率保 持历史低位。由于服务业PMI中价格指数大幅上涨，市场担忧通胀重新反弹，投资者预期联储降息空间缩小， 美国10年期国债收益率升至4.68%，创近一年新高，美股和黄金价格走弱。我们认为通胀上半年可能温和下 降，因为同比基数较高、二手车与能源价格下跌和房租通胀补跌，但特朗普政策可能推升中期通胀不确定性。 通胀不确定性推升美债收益率，令估值处于高位的美股承压。我们预计联邦基金利率目标将从 2024 年底的 4.25%-4.5%下降 50 个基点至 2025 年底的3.75%-4.0%。美联储可能在 1 月暂停降息，3 月或 5 月降息 1 次 25 个基点，9 月再降息 1次 25 个基点。 商业活动推动服务业扩张速度加快。ISM服务业PMI从11月的52.1升至12月的54.1，高于市场预期的53.5。 根据历史经 ...

宏观策略 策略观点 - 政策观望期 宏观：近期政策刺激提振中国经济，住房销量和耐用消费显著改善。在特朗普关税冲击到来之前，中国政策可 能进入观望防守状态。下半年随着政策刺激效应递减和贸易冲突到来，中国政策可能开启新一轮宽松刺激。美 国经济将延续温和放缓，通胀短期下降，但中期面临特朗普政策效应的扰动。美联储进入对特朗普政策效应的 观察评估期，对降息更加谨慎。随着通胀短期回落，美元实际利率进一步上升，高利率、强美元和高估值可能 推升市场波动性，美联储可能在3月或5月降息1次。在通胀降至更低后，特朗普可能在三季度开启新一轮贸易 战，市场震荡可能促使美联储9月再降息1次。 科技：展望2025年，考虑到全球经济温和复苏、手机/PC需求持续回暖、通用/AI服务器增长延续和端侧AI创新 周期，我们预计科技板块维持高景气度，建议布局两条主线：1）AI终端：各大厂商将于1月CES展会密集发布 AI新品，加上近期苹果Apple Intelligence加快升级，国内手机/平板/智能手表补贴政策，端侧AI创新落地提 速，有望驱动新一轮升级需求（手机/PC/穿戴/眼镜/智能家居/EV）；2）服务器：受益AI算力需求扩张， GB200 ...

2025 年 1 月 8 日 招银国际环球市场 | 策略报告 | 市场策略 策略观点 政策观望期 叶丙南, Ph.D 刘泽晖 伍力恒 刘梦楠 杨天薇, Ph.D 张元圣 贺赛一, CFA 陶冶, CFA 陆文韬, CFA 武煜, CFA 王银朋 黄本晨, CFA 王云逸 张苗 李昀嘉 胡永匡 史迹, CFA 窦文静, CFA 梁晓钧 马毓泽 冯键嵘, CFA 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http:// www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多招银国际环球市场研究报告 1 MN 宏观：近期政策刺激提振中国经济，住房销量和耐用消费显著改善。在特朗 普关税冲击到来之前，中国政策可能进入观望防守状态。下半年随着政策刺 激效应递减和贸易冲突到来，中国政策可能开启新一轮宽松刺激。美国经济 将延续温和放缓，通胀短期下降，但中期面临特朗普政策效应的扰动。美联 储进入对特朗普政策效应的观察评估期，对降息更加谨慎。随着通胀短期回 落，美元实际利率进一步上升，高利率、强美元和高估值可能推升市场波动 性，美联储可能在 3 月或 5 月降息 1 次。在通胀降至更低后，特朗普可能在 三季度开 ...

2025 年 1 月 7 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 软件 & IT 服务 海外公司梳理：拆解盈利增长前景及估值提升空间 2024 年美股头部科技平台整体表现良好，全年收益率平均值/中位数在 60%/44%，主要得益于：1）宏观经济维持韧性，美联储开启降息提升市场流 动性；2）AI 成为第二增长曲线，拉动 AI 芯片/AI 云/广告业务增速，行业龙头 依托于领先的产品能力/基建/客户基础/应用场景率先受益。展望 2025 年，我们 认为 AI 仍然是投资主线，但受益路径有望从 AI 芯片以及 AI 公有云进一步传导 到更多应用场景，包括 B 端和 C 端的应用软件，企业 SaaS 和数据云平台营收 有望相较 2024 年加速。头部科技平台中我们看好 Amazon（云需求持续增长及 零售业务运营效率持续优化驱动盈利稳步增长）、Alphabet（AI 搜索改善用户 体验并提升商业化水平，AI 云业务维持较快增长且利润率改善）、Meta（广告 业务持续受益于 AI 维持快速增长，依托于庞大用户基础较好实现 C 端 AI 应用 落地及变现）、Microsoft（AI 主题下重要的应用端核心投资标 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB52.00, indicating a potential upside of 40.0% from the current price of RMB37.15 [4][19]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation by selling its nine wholly-owned ODM subsidiaries to Luxshare Limited, which is expected to improve its valuation and focus on its high-margin semiconductor business, Nexperia [19]. - The ODM segment has been a financial burden, contributing approximately 79% of total revenue but incurring a significant net loss of RMB1.2 billion in 9M24 [19]. - The semiconductor segment has shown strong performance, generating RMB10.9 billion in sales with a gross profit margin of 37%, significantly outperforming the overall company margins [19]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB61.2 billion in FY23 to RMB80.2 billion in FY25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.1% in FY24 and 10.9% in FY25 [8][13]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB911.4 million in FY24 to RMB2.6 billion in FY25, with a significant growth rate of 186.4% [8][19]. - The company's P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 50.7x in FY24 to 17.7x in FY25, indicating an attractive valuation compared to domestic peers [8][19]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 10.4% in FY24 to 13.2% in FY25, while the operating profit margin is projected to rise from 2.3% to 5.2% in the same period [8][27]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to increase from 6.6% in FY24 to 8.9% in FY25, reflecting improved profitability [3][19]. Market Position - The company currently holds a market capitalization of RMB46.17 billion, with significant shareholding from major investors such as Wentianxia Tech Group and Wuxi Guolian Inte Cir Inv [9][19]. - The stock has shown a 33.0% increase over the past six months, indicating positive market sentiment [9].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Innovent Biologics with a target price raised from HK$55.21 to HK$57.67, reflecting a potential upside of 62.4% from the current price of HK$35.50 [1][9]. Core Insights - Innovent Biologics has out-licensed global rights of DLL3 ADC (IBI3009) to Roche, receiving an upfront payment of US$80 million and potential milestone payments up to US$1.0 billion, along with tiered royalties on net sales [1]. - The DLL3 ADC is a promising therapy for pre-treated extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC), with DLL3 being a neuroendocrine-specific antigen expressed in 85% of SCLC cases [1]. - Innovent has a rich pipeline of innovative drug candidates, including IBI115 (DLL3/CD3 bispecific antibody) and IBI363 (PD-1/IL-2), which have shown encouraging clinical results [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 6,206 million in FY23A to RMB 10,840 million in FY25E, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.4% and 31.9% respectively [8][19]. - Net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 1,028 million in FY23A to a profit of RMB 281 million in FY25E [19]. - R&D expenses are forecasted to increase from RMB 2,228 million in FY23A to RMB 3,035 million in FY25E, indicating continued investment in innovative drug development [19]. Drug Development and Pipeline - DLL3 ADC represents a significant advancement in the treatment of SCLC, with various strategies targeting DLL3 being explored, including ADCs and bispecific antibodies [1]. - Innovent's next-gen immuno-oncology asset, IBI363, has shown promising results in multiple cancer types, indicating strong potential for future out-licensing opportunities [1]. - The company has multiple ADC assets in clinical stages targeting various antigens, enhancing its global market potential [1].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Hesai Group (HSAI US) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $16.3 per ADS, based on a 4.8x 2025 expected price-to-sales ratio [2][3] Core Viewpoints - Hesai Group is a global leader in 3D LiDAR solutions, with a strong competitive advantage in the industry [5] - The company is expected to reach a profitability turning point in 2024, driven by increased shipments of existing LiDAR products, the launch of a cost-effective new AT series in 2025, and improved operational efficiency [2] - Hesai Group is projected to achieve Non-GAAP net profits of RMB 9 million in 2024 and RMB 141 million in 2025 [2] - The company has established mass production partnerships with 20 domestic and international automakers for 75 vehicle models as of 3Q24 [5] - Hesai Group holds a 37% market share in the global LiDAR market in 2023, ranking first, with leading positions in both passenger car/light commercial vehicle (26%) and autonomous taxi (74%) segments [12] Market and Industry Analysis - The global automotive LiDAR market is expected to reach $3.63 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 38% from 2023 to 2029 [12] - The passenger car (PC) and light commercial vehicle (LCV)/autonomous taxi LiDAR markets are projected to reach $2.99 billion and $638 million, respectively, by 2029, with CAGRs of 39% and 31% from 2023 to 2029 [12] - Hesai Group is well-positioned to benefit from the strong growth in the LiDAR market, given its leading position in both global and Chinese LiDAR solution markets [12] Competitive Advantages - Hesai Group's competitive advantages include its leading technological capabilities, such as the self-developed ASIC chip, which enables continuous cost optimization [5] - The company's in-house manufacturing and highly automated production methods provide it with leading mass production capabilities [5] - Strong customer relationships drive continuous market penetration [5] Valuation and Target Price - The target valuation of RMB 15.9 billion (equivalent to $16.3 per ADS) is based on a 4.8x 2025 expected price-to-sales ratio, which is 10% higher than the industry average of 4.4x [3] - This valuation is supported by Hesai Group's industry-leading financial performance and a strong product delivery plan in 2025, driven by incremental contributions from leading automakers [3]

Key Policy Insights - The GDP growth target for 2025 is likely to remain at around 5%, consistent with 2024, as decision-makers aim to convey confidence in stabilizing growth despite challenges such as the impact of Trump [2][34] - Key policy focuses include boosting consumption, improving social welfare, supporting employment for vulnerable groups, and enhancing family income and consumption willingness [3][34] - The government plans to promote technological innovation and new productive forces, aiming to restore business confidence and improve the business environment [3][34] Fiscal Policy Overview - The broad deficit rate is expected to rise from 6.1% in 2024 to 6.9% in 2025, with significant increases in local government debt replacement and special bond funding [10][11] - Fiscal policies will focus on alleviating local fiscal difficulties, injecting capital into state-owned banks, stabilizing the real estate market, and ensuring social welfare [11][32] - Direct transfers to households may be limited, but policies aimed at stimulating consumption and alleviating deflationary pressures are anticipated [12][32] Economic Challenges and Responses - The economy faces significant deflationary pressures, with weak consumer demand and overcapacity exacerbating the situation [46] - The government recognizes the need for comprehensive policies to combat deflation, similar to Japan's historical experiences [47] - Structural issues such as aging population and urban-rural disparities are contributing to economic challenges, necessitating targeted policy responses [50][51] Market and Investment Outlook - The macroeconomic policy is shifting towards a more accommodative stance, with expectations of lower reserve requirements and interest rates to enhance liquidity [39][34] - The focus on stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, along with promoting consumption and innovation, is expected to create a more favorable investment environment [26][34] - The anticipated recovery in consumer demand, particularly in sectors like real estate and durable goods, may signal a positive trend for market performance in the coming year [27][34]

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Hansoh Pharma with a target price raised to HK$25.24 from HK$24.11, indicating a potential upside of 37.6% from the current price of HK$18.34 [3][20]. Core Insights - Hansoh Pharma has successfully out-licensed its oral GLP-1 drug candidate HS-10535 to MSD, receiving an upfront payment of US$112 million and potential milestone payments up to US$1.9 billion, along with future sales royalties [1]. - The company has a robust pipeline of GLP-1 assets, including Fulaimei, HS-20094, and HS-10501, with ongoing clinical trials that position it competitively in the global oral GLP-1 drug development race [1][18]. - The safety profile of oral GLP-1 drugs is a critical differentiating factor, with various candidates showing promising weight loss data and varying safety concerns [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 10,104 million in FY23A to RMB 12,301 million in FY24E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.7% [2][23]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from RMB 3,277.5 million in FY23A to RMB 4,382.9 million in FY24E, marking a growth of 33.7% [2][23]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.55 in FY23A to RMB 0.74 in FY24E, with a P/E ratio decreasing from 31.1x to 23.3x [2][23]. Pipeline Development - Hansoh's HS-20094, a GLP-1/GIP dual agonist, has initiated a Phase 3 obesity study in China, with Phase 2 trial results expected next year [1]. - The company is also advancing HS-10501 through Phase 1 trials, further expanding its GLP-1 drug portfolio [1]. - The collaboration with MSD is anticipated to accelerate the development of HS-10535 and unlock its global potential [1].