宏观经济 中国经济-数据仍然稳健降低政策强刺激概率 2025 年 5 月 20 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观及公司点评 全球市场观察 在关税冲击下，4 月中国经济活动总体放缓，但依然比预期强劲。社会零售 额增速小幅降低但仍然稳健，"以旧换新"政策支撑耐用品零售保持较快增 长。工业增加值和固定资产投资增速均略有回落，但仍高于 2024 年水平。 贸易战缓和提振市场情绪，但也降低政策强刺激概率。我们将第二季度中国 GDP 增长预测从 4.5%上调至 4.8%，下半年和全年增速分别为 4.7%和 4.9%。 由于房地产市场走弱、抢出口透支外需和以旧换新政策刺激效应边际递减， 中国经济在第三季度可能面临进一步放缓压力。政策宽松时点可能推迟至第 四季度，财政刺激、提振消费和去产能作为中国经济再平衡的重点政策可能 成为中美谈判中中方的重要出价。（链接） 公司点评 零跑汽车（9863 HK，买入，目标价：72 港元）- 1Q25 超预期；后续展望更 趋乐观 1Q25 毛利率超预期：零跑一季度收入较我们预期高出 8%，在一季度终端折 扣扩大的背景下公司仍然实现了平均售价的环比提升。一季 ...

Group 1: Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile, Xpeng Motors, Zoomlion, Sany Heavy Industry, Atour Group, Luckin Coffee, and Proya, all rated as "Buy" with target price increases ranging from 12% to 37%[5] - The average market capitalization of the recommended stocks is approximately $25 billion for Geely Automobile and $19.7 billion for Xpeng Motors[5] - The average daily trading volume for these stocks varies, with Geely Automobile at $200.2 million and Xpeng Motors at $248.2 million[5] Group 2: Financial Metrics - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for FY24A shows Geely Automobile at 10.90, while Xpeng Motors is not available (N/A)[5] - Return on equity (ROE) for FY24A is highest for Atour Group at 47.5%, while Xpeng Motors is N/A[5] - Dividend yield for FY24A is 1.7% for Geely Automobile and 5.4% for Xpeng Motors[5] Group 3: Performance Review - The basket of 22 stocks listed in the previous report had an average return of 6.0%, compared to the MSCI China Index return of 8.1%[9] - Out of the 22 stocks, 6 outperformed the benchmark index[9]

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Leapmotor, with a target price raised from HK$50.00 to HK$72.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.8% from the current price of HK$62.20 [1][3]. Core Insights - Leapmotor's 1Q25 net loss of RMB130 million was better than expected, attributed to higher average selling price (ASP) and gross profit margin (GPM), along with contributions from strategic cooperation [1][9]. - The company is expected to achieve breakeven at the net level in FY25E, followed by a significant profit increase to RMB1.2 billion in FY26E [1][9]. - Sales volume forecast for FY25E has been raised by 15% to 0.55 million units, reflecting stronger-than-expected sales performance [1][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB58,993 million, with a year-on-year growth of 83.4% [2][11]. - Gross margin is expected to improve to 12.1% in FY25E, up from 11.2% previously estimated [11][12]. - Net profit is projected to turn positive at RMB118 million in FY25E, with further growth anticipated in FY26E [2][11]. Share Performance - Leapmotor's stock has shown significant performance, with a 1-month increase of 38.4% and a 6-month increase of 106.3% [5]. - The market capitalization stands at HK$83,159.3 million, with an average turnover of HK$695.7 million over the past three months [3][5]. Shareholding Structure - Major shareholders include Mr. Jiangming Zhu and his concert parties holding 25.0%, and Stellantis N.V. with a 21.3% stake [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leapmotor, indicating a potential return exceeding 15% over the next 12 months [4][18]. Core Insights - Leapmotor's Q1 2025 net loss of RMB 130 million exceeded previous expectations, driven by an increase in average selling price (ASP) and gross profit margin (GPM), along with unexpected contributions from strategic partnerships [1][2]. - The sales volume forecast for FY25 has been raised by 15% to 550,000 units, reflecting strong sales performance and order volume from April to May [3][4]. - The GPM for Q1 2025 improved by 1.6 percentage points to 14.9%, attributed to strategic cooperation with FAW and effective cost reduction efforts [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for FY25 have been increased to RMB 58.993 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 83.4% [5][13]. - The net profit forecast for FY25 has been adjusted from a loss of RMB 98 million to a profit of RMB 118 million, with significant profit growth expected in FY26 [4][13]. - The GPM for FY25 is now projected at 12.1%, up from 11.2%, reflecting enhanced cost management capabilities [3][13]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price has been raised from HKD 50.00 to HKD 72.00, based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.5 times for FY25 [4][6]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in market sentiment and profit outlook for Leapmotor, supporting the revised target price [4][6]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Mr. Jiangming Zhu with 25.0% and Stellantis N.V. with 21.3% [7]. Stock Performance - Leapmotor's stock has shown strong performance, with a 1-month absolute return of 38.4% and a 6-month return of 106.3% [8].

Macro Commentary - The US economy shows signs of slowing down, with significant declines in retail and manufacturing output due to tariff impacts, particularly affecting durable goods like automobiles and electronics [2] - Despite the slowdown, unemployment claims remain stable, indicating that the service sector is less affected, and employment in this sector remains robust [2] - Inflation is expected to rebound temporarily from May to August, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain interest rates until September, when a potential rate cut may occur [2] Industry Commentary - The Chinese pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a strong trend in innovative drug exports, with several significant business development transactions occurring despite recent tariff tensions [5][6] - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has risen by 14.9% since early 2025, although it has underperformed compared to the broader MSCI China Index [5] - The US innovative drug prices are unlikely to decrease in the short term due to recent executive orders, but long-term pressures on healthcare spending are anticipated [7] Company Initiation - The report covers Angelalign Technology (6699 HK), a leading provider of invisible orthodontic solutions in China, which has maintained a market share of 42% in the domestic market [9][10] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.8% from 2019 to 2024, with a projected CAGR of 18.0% from 2024 to 2027 [9] - Angelalign is expanding internationally, with a goal to cover over 50 countries and achieve significant revenue growth from overseas markets, which is expected to account for 30% of total revenue by 2024 [11][12]

Economic Overview - In April, U.S. retail and manufacturing output significantly slowed, indicating the impact of tariffs on consumer confidence and demand[1] - Retail sales for durable goods, such as automobiles and furniture, showed a marked decline, while non-durable goods retail also weakened[1] - The unemployment rate remains low, with initial jobless claims at 229,000, consistent with market expectations, and continuing claims slightly rising to 1.881 million[2] Inflation and Federal Reserve Outlook - Inflation is expected to rebound in the short term from May to August, but the unemployment rate is projected to remain low, leading the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged[2] - Inflation may peak around September and start to decline thereafter, with potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in September and possibly again in November or December[1][2] Retail Performance - April retail and food service sales showed a seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth of 0.1%, slightly above the market expectation of 0%[5] - Durable goods consumption, particularly in automotive, fell from a growth of 5.5% in March to -0.1% in April, while non-durable goods like sports and clothing saw declines of -2.5% and -0.4% respectively[5] Manufacturing Output - Industrial production remained flat in April, slightly below the expected 0.1% increase, with manufacturing output declining by 0.4%[5] - Key sectors such as electrical lighting and medical equipment saw declines of 3.4% and 2.2%, while aerospace and semiconductor production grew by 1% and 2% respectively[5]

Company Analysis - Alibaba (BABA US) reported total revenue of 236.5 billion RMB for 4QFY25, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, aligning with expectations [2] - Adjusted EBITA reached 32.6 billion RMB, up 36% year-on-year, driven by improved profitability across all business segments [2] - The company is optimistic about the Taobao Group's steady profit growth in 1QFY26, supported by increased commission rates and healthy GMV growth [2] - Alibaba's cloud and AI sectors are identified as key strategic growth areas for the coming years [2] - NetEase (NTES US) reported a total revenue of 28.8 billion RMB for 1Q25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7%, which met market expectations [7] - Operating profit increased by 37% to 10.4 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations by 25%, primarily due to effective control of operating expenses [7] - The gaming segment showed a 12% year-on-year revenue growth, surpassing market forecasts, indicating a recovery in growth momentum [7] - Beike (BEKE US) achieved a revenue of 23.3 billion RMB in 1Q25, a 42% year-on-year increase, outperforming market expectations [7] - The company reported a significant increase in transaction volumes for both existing and new homes, with respective year-on-year growth of 28% and 53% [7] - However, concerns arose from the company's cautious guidance for 2Q25, projecting a revenue of approximately 26 billion RMB, representing a 12% year-on-year increase [7] - Geely Automobile (175 HK) reported a net profit of 5.7 billion RMB for 1Q25, in line with previous profit forecasts [8] - The company achieved a 25% year-on-year revenue growth, with a notable improvement in cost control reflected in a 12% decrease in selling and administrative expenses [9] - Geely's overall performance is bolstered by the strong profitability of its Zeekr brand, which achieved a historical high gross margin of 21.2% in 1Q25 [9] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,641, up 2.30% for the day and 38.68% year-to-date [4] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.13%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 42.97% [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.86%, with a year-to-date growth of 14.42% [4] - The US markets showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.21% and the S&P 500 up 0.10% [6]

Economic Overview - The April CPI inflation in the U.S. was lower than market expectations, indicating that the impact of tariffs has not fully materialized[2] - CPI and core CPI year-on-year growth rates are expected to rise from 2.3% and 2.8% in April to 3.1% and 3.3% in August, before slightly declining to 2.7% and 3.1% in December[3] Tariff Impact - The inflationary impact of tariffs is projected to peak in the third quarter, with short-term cost-push effects outweighing demand contraction effects[3] - Core CPI showed a slight rebound, with core services growth declining to a near four-year low, indicating mixed inflationary pressures[6] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates steady in June and July, with potential rate cuts in September and again in November or December[2][3] - The demand contraction effects are expected to increase post-September, leading to a slowdown in the job market and a potential decline in inflation[3] Price Trends - Food prices have shown a significant drop, with household food prices decreasing from 0.5% to -0.4% in April, while energy prices rebounded slightly[6] - Core goods prices are expected to recover starting in May due to the gradual realization of tariff impacts on import prices[6]

Macro Economic Overview - The US economy is experiencing a delay in the impact of tariffs, with April CPI inflation lower than market expectations. Concerns about inflation rebound persist, with food prices declining and energy prices recovering due to a smaller drop in gasoline prices [2] - Core CPI showed a slight rebound, with core goods rebounding modestly and core services, particularly hotel and airline ticket prices, seeing reduced declines. The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to rise initially before declining, while falling oil prices may partially offset tariff effects [2] - CPI and core CPI year-on-year growth rates are projected to rise from April's 2.3% and 2.8% to 3.1% and 3.3% in August, before slightly decreasing to 2.7% and 3.1% in December. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in June and July, with potential rate cuts in September and November or December [2] Company Analysis Tencent (700 HK) - Tencent reported 1Q25 results with total revenue growing 13% year-on-year to RMB 180 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 3%. Strong growth in gaming and marketing revenues contributed significantly [5] - Non-IFRS net profit increased by 22% year-on-year to RMB 61.3 billion, also surpassing consensus by 3%, driven by strong revenue performance and improved gross margins [5] - The target price for Tencent has been raised to HKD 660 from HKD 625, reflecting an optimistic outlook on AI development supporting growth across various business lines [5] JD.com (JD US) - JD.com reported 1Q25 revenue of RMB 301.1 billion, a 15.8% year-on-year increase, exceeding expectations by 3-4%. Non-GAAP net profit rose 43% year-on-year to RMB 12.8 billion, surpassing expectations by 18-23% [5] - The company is increasing investments in its food delivery business to drive nationwide expansion and enhance user engagement among high-quality customer segments [5] - The target price remains at USD 55 per ADS, with a slight increase in revenue forecasts but a 10% decrease in non-GAAP net profit projections for 2025 due to increased investment in the food delivery segment [5] Nuocheng Jianhua (9969 HK) - Nuocheng Jianhua reported strong 1Q25 results with sales of Obutin increasing by 89% year-on-year to RMB 311 million, primarily driven by growth in marginal zone lymphoma (MZL) [6] - The company has raised its sales growth target for Obutin from 30% to over 35% for FY25, supported by the anticipated contribution from MZL and the recent approval for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) [6] - The company holds RMB 7.8 billion in cash reserves, providing ample support for future R&D investments [6] Industry Focus - The report highlights a positive outlook for the automotive sector, with companies like Geely and Xpeng receiving "Buy" ratings and target price increases, indicating strong growth potential in the electric vehicle market [10] - The consumer discretionary sector, including companies like Anta Sports and Luckin Coffee, is also noted for its growth potential, with several companies maintaining "Buy" ratings and significant target price upside [10] - The healthcare sector, particularly companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics, is recognized for its robust pipeline and potential for significant market impact, with "Buy" ratings reflecting confidence in their growth trajectories [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the AI infrastructure supply chain, indicating a potential return exceeding 15% over the next 12 months [18]. Core Insights - The report highlights that major tech giants, including Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft, have shown strong capital expenditure (capex) growth, reaching $73 billion in Q1 2025, a 63% year-over-year increase [1][2]. - Meta has significantly raised its capex guidance from $60-65 billion to $64-72 billion, reflecting a 73% increase compared to 2024 [2]. - The AI infrastructure supply chain is experiencing substantial investment from large-scale computing firms, with capex intensity reaching 20.3% in Q1 2025, up from 13.8% in Q1 2024 [3]. Summary by Sections Capital Expenditure Trends - The four major tech companies are expected to continue increasing their capital expenditures, with projections for Q2 2025 indicating a 48% year-over-year growth, reaching approximately $78.6 billion [1]. - The overall capex for 2025 is anticipated to exceed $319 billion, representing a 39% increase compared to the previous year [1][2]. AI Infrastructure Investment - The report emphasizes the ongoing investment in AI infrastructure, with Amazon's AI business revenue reaching hundreds of billions and a triple-digit growth rate [3]. - The report notes that 85% of global IT infrastructure is still on-premises, suggesting a significant opportunity for cloud services to grow in the next 10-20 years [3]. Domestic Beneficiaries - Key domestic beneficiaries of this trend include Yingli Technology (300308 CH, Buy), Yitexun (300502 CH, Hold), and TFC (300394 CH, Hold), which are expected to experience strong growth due to the increasing demand for AI infrastructure [4].