2025 年 2 月 17 日 ` 每日投资策略 全球市场观察、宏观经济及公司点评 全球市场观察 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 宏观经济 中国经济 - 信贷需求逐渐复苏 1 月社会融资规模和新增人民币贷款增速均好于市场预期，显示信贷需求逐渐复 苏。政府债券发行依然强劲，企业信贷需求小幅改善。去年 4 季度以来，三大先 行指标包括股市、信贷和一二线城市均开始改善，预示 2025 年中国经济可能出 现短期复苏。未来中国货币政策将保持宽松，以进一步支持国内经济复苏和对冲 特朗普 2.0 冲击。2025 年中国可能下调存款准备金率 50 个基点，下调 LPR 20- 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 招银国际研究部 | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 22,620 | 3.69 | 32.69 | | 恒生 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Palo Alto Networks (PANW) with a target price of US$230.30, indicating a potential upside of 15.1% from the current price of US$200.03 [1][3]. Core Insights - Palo Alto Networks reported solid results for 2QFY25, with total revenue increasing by 14.3% year-over-year to US$2.26 billion, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 1% [1]. - Non-GAAP net income for the same period reached US$566 million, reflecting a 12% year-over-year growth and exceeding consensus by 4%, driven by optimized sales and marketing spending [1]. - The company is positioned as a key beneficiary in the Gen-AI era, with expected growth in demand for security solutions due to increased AI-related deployments [1]. - The FY25-27 revenue and non-GAAP net profit forecasts have been adjusted upwards by 0-2% and 1-3% respectively, reflecting better-than-expected growth [1]. Financial Performance - For FY25, total revenue is projected to be between US$9.14 billion and US$9.19 billion, with non-GAAP operating profit margin (OPM) expected to be between 28.0% and 28.5% [8]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25 is forecasted to be between US$2.286 billion and US$2.286 billion, with a diluted non-GAAP EPS of US$3.18 to US$3.24 [8][10]. - Subscription and support revenue grew by 16% year-over-year to US$1.8 billion, accounting for 81% of total revenue [8]. Key Operating Metrics - The number of active SASE customers increased by 20% year-over-year to over 5,600, with the number of SASE deals exceeding US$1 million rising 2.5 times year-over-year [8]. - Total bookings across Cortex & Prisma Cloud grew approximately 50% year-over-year, with cumulative XSIAM bookings surpassing US$1 billion [8]. - The company achieved 1,150 total Platformizations among its top 5,000 customers, with significant growth in large deal wins [8]. Share Performance - The market capitalization of Palo Alto Networks is approximately US$141.23 billion, with an average turnover of US$935.6 million over the past three months [3]. - The stock has shown a 1-month performance of 17.3% and a 6-month performance of 17.7% [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25, FY26, and FY27 are US$9.188 billion, US$10.705 billion, and US$12.409 billion respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 14.5%, 16.5%, and 15.9% [2][14]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25 is expected to be US$2.286 billion, with a growth rate of 17.4% year-over-year [2][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AAC Tech, with a target price raised to HK$53.48, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 25.2 times FY25 earnings [1][4][19]. Core Insights - AAC Tech is expected to see a significant net profit increase of 130-145% year-on-year for FY24, reaching between RMB 17 billion and 18.2 billion, driven by the recovery in the global smartphone market and product upgrades across various segments [1][2]. - The company is projected to benefit from trends such as AI and foldable smartphones, as well as new orders in automotive audio systems from major clients like Xiaomi and Huawei [1][3][4]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of over 10% in FY25, with a gross profit margin (GPM) target of 22-25% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY22 revenue was RMB 20.625 billion, with a 16.7% year-on-year growth, while FY23 revenue slightly declined by 1% to RMB 20.419 billion. For FY24, revenue is expected to increase by 35.2% to RMB 27.613 billion, followed by FY25 and FY26 with projected revenues of RMB 31.383 billion and RMB 34.183 billion respectively [5][23]. - Net profit for FY22 was RMB 821.3 million, which decreased by 37.6% year-on-year. In FY24, net profit is expected to rebound significantly to RMB 1.776 billion, with further growth to RMB 2.273 billion in FY25 and RMB 2.751 billion in FY26 [5][23]. Earnings Estimates - The report revises FY24-26 earnings per share (EPS) estimates upward by 1-4%, reflecting improvements in optical, acoustic, and MEMS sectors [1][19]. - The new EPS estimates for FY24, FY25, and FY26 are RMB 1.51, RMB 1.93, and RMB 2.34 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.9, 22.6, and 18.7 [5][19]. Market Position and Catalysts - AAC Tech is positioned to capitalize on the launch of AI and foldable smartphones, new AI smart glasses, and automotive audio orders, which are expected to drive future growth [1][4][19]. - The report highlights the importance of product upgrades in various segments, including acoustic, MEMS, thermal management, and optical, as key growth drivers [1][3][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for Datadog (DDOG US), indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1][16]. Core Insights - Datadog's total revenue for 4Q24 was US$737.7 million, reflecting a 25% year-over-year growth, which is 3% above Bloomberg consensus forecasts [1]. - The company is entering an investment phase aimed at driving long-term growth, with management planning to increase spending on sales and marketing (S&M) and research and development (R&D) in 2025 [1][5]. - The target price for Datadog is set at US$156.4, up from a previous target of US$154.3, based on a valuation of 16.6x 2025E EV/sales [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, total revenue reached US$2.68 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 26%, and non-GAAP net income increased by 41% to US$653.8 million [1][6]. - Key operating metrics include billings of US$908 million (up 26% YoY), and a net dollar-based retention rate in the high-110s percentage [5][6]. - The company had over 30,000 customers by the end of 2024, with significant growth in large customers contributing to the annual recurring revenue (ARR) [5]. Future Guidance - Management expects 1Q25 revenue to be between US$737-741 million, representing approximately 21% growth YoY, and non-GAAP net income per share to be between US$0.41-0.43 [5]. - For FY25, revenue is projected to be between US$3.175 billion and US$3.195 billion, indicating an 18-19% growth YoY [5][6]. - Operating expenses are expected to grow in the high-20s percentage YoY, which may impact near-term margins but is aimed at supporting long-term growth [1][5]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Vanguard Group Inc (9.2%) and Blackrock Inc. (6.8%) [3]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of Datadog is approximately US$48.735 billion, with a 52-week high of US$168.65 and a low of US$104.97 [2][3]. - The stock has shown a 1-month performance of -2.3% and a 6-month performance of 19.0% [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for AAC Tech, with a target price raised to HK$53.48, implying a 14.9% upside from the current price of HK$46.55 [1][3][15]. Core Insights - AAC Tech is expected to experience significant earnings growth of 130-145% YoY for FY24, driven by a recovery in the global smartphone market, specification upgrades across various segments, and improved operational efficiency [1][8]. - The company is projected to benefit from trends in AI and foldable phones, as well as new product launches such as AI smart glasses and auto acoustics orders [1][8]. - The report anticipates continued earnings growth of 28% and 21% for FY25 and FY26, respectively, supported by a favorable product mix and margin improvements [1][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 20,419 million in FY23 to RMB 27,613 million in FY24, representing a 35.2% YoY increase [2][21]. - Net profit is projected to rise from RMB 740.4 million in FY23 to RMB 1,776.3 million in FY24, reflecting a 139.9% YoY growth [2][21]. - The report revises FY24-26E EPS forecasts upward by 1-4% due to anticipated specification upgrades and margin improvements [1][9][15]. Revenue Breakdown - For FY24, revenue from acoustics is expected to be RMB 8,680 million, while PSS (Power Supply Solutions) is projected at RMB 3,125 million [13]. - The revenue mix indicates that acoustics will account for approximately 31% of total revenue in FY25, with PSS contributing around 11% [13]. Valuation - The new target price of HK$53.48 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, reflecting different growth profiles across business segments [15][16]. - The target price implies a P/E ratio of 25.2x for FY25E, aligning with industry peers [15][16].

2025 年 2 月 10 日 MSCI 中国医疗指数 2025 年初至今累计上涨 5.3%，跑赢 MSCI 中国指数 0.9%。 受益于海外降息以及国内宏观环境改善，医药作为高弹性行业有望在 2025 年跑赢 市场。丙类医保目录年内即将落地，创新药将借助商业医疗保险的覆盖获得更好的 支付条件。医疗设备招标加速复苏，将推动国产医疗设备企业盈利复苏。 估值表 | | | | 市值 | 目标价 | 上行/ | P/E (x) | | P/B (x) | | ROE (%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司名称 | 股份代码 | 评级 | (百万美元) | | | | (LC) 下行空间 FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | | | | 药明康德 | 603259 CH | 买入 | 23,044.0 | 78.51 | 35% | 15.0 | 12.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | | 百济神州 | ONC US ...

Group 1: BYD's Smart Driving Strategy - BYD announced its "Smart Driving Strategy" on February 10, equipping all models priced above 100,000 RMB and three models below 100,000 RMB with the "Tianshen Eye" advanced smart driving system[1] - The first batch includes 21 models featuring an end-to-end large language model (LLM), 5 millimeter-wave radars, 12 cameras, and 12 ultrasonic radars[1] - The supply chain for smart driving, including domain controllers, sensors, connectors, and displays, is expected to benefit, particularly companies like BYD Electronics, Sunny Optical, and BOE Technology[1] Group 2: January Discounts in the Automotive Industry - In January, the average discount across the industry increased by 0.3 percentage points, driven mainly by domestic brands like BYD, Leap Motor, and Aion, as well as German brands like BMW and Audi[2] - BYD's announcement to equip nearly all main sales models with advanced driving features without raising prices is expected to intensify the price war[2] - Leap Motor's average discount rose by 3.1 percentage points to 9.1%, exceeding expectations[2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Performance - Great Wall's average discount increased by 0.2 percentage points to 10.9%, indicating potential pressure on Q1 2025 performance due to declining sales and new model launches[3] - Geely's average discount narrowed by 0.3 percentage points to 9.8%, outperforming most competitors, attributed to reduced discounts on new models[3] - BYD's average discount rose by 1.2 percentage points to 6.1%, marking the highest nominal discount since 2020, with A/B class models seeing increases over 1.6 percentage points[3] Group 4: Pricing and Market Trends - BYD's self-developed high-level smart driving system will be available on 21 models priced between 70,000 RMB and 200,000 RMB, maintaining pricing consistency with 2024 models[4] - GAC's average discount increased, while GAC Toyota's discount narrowed by 0.5 percentage points to the lowest level since last year[4] - BMW's average discount rose by 0.9 percentage points to 31.7%, a historical high, with electric models seeing discounts as high as 41-48%[4]

Employment Data - January non-farm payrolls increased by 143,000, below the market expectation of 175,000[1] - The total non-farm employment data for November and December was revised upward by 100,000 to 261,000 and 307,000 respectively[2] - Private sector job growth slowed from 273,000 in December to 111,000 in January[2] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.48% month-on-month, significantly above the expected 0.33%[2] - Year-on-year wage growth slightly rose from 4.05% to 4.06%[2] Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1% to 4.0% in January[3] - Labor force participation rate increased from 62.5% to 62.6%[3] Labor Market Adjustments - Total labor force population was revised upward by 2.1 million, primarily due to foreign-born workers[3] - The three-month moving average of non-farm payrolls rose from 82,000 in August to 237,000 in January[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The strong employment data supports the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts in March and May[4] - Further rate cuts of 25 basis points may occur in June and September due to tightening effects from rising real rates and a stronger dollar[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Amazon, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [23]. Core Insights - Amazon's 4Q24 results showed revenue of US$187.8 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, and operating profit of US$21.2 billion, up 61% year-over-year, driven by margin improvements in both North America and AWS segments [1][6]. - For 2025, revenue is projected to grow to between US$151.0 billion and US$155.5 billion, implying a 5-9% year-over-year growth, while operating profit is expected to be between US$14.0 billion and US$18.0 billion [1][6]. - The target price for Amazon has been raised by 14% to US$268.0, based on an 18.5x EV/EBITDA multiple, which aligns with the two-year trading average [1][14]. Financial Performance Summary - In FY24, total revenue reached US$638.0 billion, with a net profit of US$59.2 billion, reflecting a 95% year-over-year increase [1][8]. - For FY25, revenue is estimated at US$702.6 billion, with a net profit of US$71.2 billion, representing a 20.2% year-over-year growth [8][12]. - The operating profit for FY25 is projected to be US$83.8 billion, up 22% year-over-year, despite a negative impact of US$400 million from accounting changes [7][12]. Segment Performance - AWS revenue for 4Q24 was US$28.8 billion, up 18.9% year-over-year, with an operating profit margin of 36.9% [6][10]. - The North America segment reported revenue of US$115.6 billion, a 9.5% year-over-year increase, with operating margin expanding to 8.0% [6][10]. - Advertising services revenue grew 18.0% year-over-year to US$17.3 billion, contributing 9.2% to total revenue in 4Q24 [6][10]. Valuation and Forecast Changes - The valuation period has been rolled over to 2025E, with updated forecasts reflecting a slight decrease in revenue estimates for FY25 and FY26 by 0.4% [12][13]. - The gross profit margin for FY25 is expected to be 50.0%, with an operating profit margin of 11.9% [12][13].

招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 半导体 台积电：AI 需求激增推动强劲的业绩和指引 台积电（TSM US，未评级）公布了强劲的 2024年四季度业绩。公司收入达到 268 亿美元（同比增长 36.5%/环比增长 14.1%），比彭博一致预期/公司指引高 3.9%/1.3%，主要受 3 纳米/5 纳米芯片的强劲需求驱动。毛利率扩张至 59.0%，高 于彭博一致预期/公司指引的 58.5%/58.0%，主要受益于更高的产能利用率和生产 效率，部分被 3 纳米产能扩张的稀释抵消。按技术节点划分，3 纳米在四季度的收 入占比为 26%（上季度/去年同期为 20%/15%）。按下游应用领域划分，高性能计 算仍是最大贡献板块，收入占比超过 50%，反映 AI 的强劲需求。2024 财年收入同 比增长 30%至 901 亿美元，毛利率为 56.1%，同比提升 1.7 个百分点。 管理层预计 2025 年一季度收入将在 250-258 亿美元区间。收入中值意味着同比增 长 35%，环比下降 6%。管理层表示，收入环比下降 6%主要受 1）智能手机季节 性因素影响，但 2）部分将被 AI 领域的强劲需求所抵消。 ...