2024 年 8 月 16 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 通胀延续放缓 美国 7 月 CPI 与核心 CPI 增速符合预期，显示通胀延续放缓。以同比增速衡量， 商品通胀持续为负，房租通胀和其他服务通胀放缓，但仍分别达到 4.9%和 4.6%，因房租和工资合同调价存在滞后期。展望未来，CPI 与核心 CPI 增速可能 延续温和放缓，驱动因素包括房租通胀补跌、工资增速下降和大宗商品价格回 调。随着通胀延续下降和就业市场降温，美联储降息时机不断临近。9月降息已无 悬念，分歧在于降息幅度是 25 个基点还是 50 个基点。由于房租环比涨幅反弹， 市场预期 9 月降息 25 个基点概率从 47%升至 62.5%，降息 50 个基点概率从 53% 降至 37.5%。美联储的注意力已从抗通胀转向双目标平衡，对就业市场更加关 注。目前美国经济放缓仍属温和，通胀下降但仍高于 2%目标。我们预计美联储将 在 9 月和 12 月两次降息合计 50 个基点，明年进一步降息 4 次共 100 个基点。 CPI增速略低于预期，商品通胀延续为负。7月 CPI季调后环比增长 0.15%， 接近市场预期的 0.2 ...

适用于本文件在美国的收件人 请阅读最后一页的分析师认证和重要披露 9 15 Aug 2024 腾讯 （ 700 香港 ） 腾讯于2024年8月14日公布了第二季度（2Q24）的财务结果：总收入同比增长8%，达到 1611亿人民币，与我们的预期和市场共识（分别为1609亿和1614亿）基本一致；非国际财务 报告准则（IFRS）下的营业利润同比增长27%，达到584亿人民币，基本符合我们对577亿人 民币的预测；非IFRS净收入增加了53%，达到573亿人民币，比我们的预期和市场共识分别高 出了17%和18%，主要原因是联营公司收益份额的增加（同比增长66亿人民币）。受益于游 戏毛收入的强劲增长，我们对下半年（2H24）的收入增长加速和盈利增长持乐观态度。电子 商务生态系统的建设将在中长期支持互联网消费业务的增长，而随着经济势头的恢复，金融服 务业务（FBS）的收入有望反弹。我们保持了2024至2026财年的运营利润预测基本不变，并 将非IFRS净收入预测上调5-8%，以反映联营公司收益份额的增加。我们维持了基于股东权益 总额（SOTP）得出的目标价为480港元和买入评级。 游戏业务在第二季度录得稳健复苏。游戏收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Tencent with a target price of HK$480.0, derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach [1][22]. Core Insights - Tencent's total revenue for 2Q24 grew by 8% YoY to RMB161.1 billion, aligning with estimates, while non-IFRS net income surged by 53% YoY to RMB57.3 billion, exceeding expectations [1]. - The gaming segment showed a solid recovery, with revenue increasing by 9% YoY to RMB48.5 billion, driven by successful game launches and recovery of flagship titles [1][17]. - Online advertising revenue grew by 19% YoY to RMB29.9 billion, supported by strong performance in Video Accounts and long-form video [1]. - The fintech and business services segment experienced slower growth, with revenue up by 4% YoY to RMB50.4 billion, reflecting challenges in consumer loan revenue [1][11]. - Gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 5.8 percentage points YoY to 53.5%, driven by high-margin revenue streams [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue is projected to reach RMB658.2 billion in FY24E, with adjusted net profit expected at RMB214.6 billion, reflecting a CAGR of 18% from FY24 to FY26 [18][20]. - The adjusted EPS for FY24E is forecasted at RMB22.16, with a P/E ratio of 19.7x [18][20]. Business Segment Valuation - The valuation for the online games segment is estimated at HK$190.6 per share, while the social network services (SNS) business is valued at HK$30.0 per share [5][7]. - The fintech business is valued at HK$79.7 per share, reflecting Tencent's strong position in China's digital payment market [6][7]. - The advertising business is valued at HK$83.5 per share, based on a premium P/E ratio due to resilient ad revenue growth [22]. Financial Summary - Tencent's total assets are projected to grow from RMB1,635.9 billion in 2024E to RMB2,085.6 billion by 2026E, indicating strong financial health [13][30]. - The company is expected to maintain a robust cash position, with cash and equivalents projected at RMB152.4 billion in 2024E [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for China Lilang, primarily due to its attractive yield of 9% and valuation of 9x FY24E P/E, despite a cautious outlook for 2H24E [2][4]. Core Views - The company has revised down its FY24E retail sales growth target to 10% from 15%, reflecting macroeconomic uncertainties and company-specific challenges such as DTC transformation and increased operating expenses [2][6]. - Despite a robust new retail sales growth of 37% in 1H24E, the overall sales growth is expected to slow down due to a high base from the previous year and unclear momentum in retail sales [2][6]. - The partnership with Descente to develop the Munsingwear brand in China is seen as a positive move that could enhance growth in the golf wear segment [2][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3,544 million in FY23A to RMB 3,845 million in FY24E, representing an 8.5% year-on-year growth [3][10]. - Net profit is expected to decrease slightly from RMB 530.4 million in FY23A to RMB 528.1 million in FY24E, indicating a 0.4% decline [3][10]. - The company’s operating profit is forecasted to increase from RMB 610.6 million in FY23A to RMB 634 million in FY24E, reflecting a 3.9% growth [3][10]. Earnings Revision - FY24E net profit estimates have been revised down by 16% to RMB 528 million, primarily due to slower-than-expected sales growth and increased operating expenses [7][8]. - The gross profit margin is expected to decline to 46.7% in FY24E from 48.2% in FY23A, reflecting the impact of DTC transformation and a shift in sales mix [7][8]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of China Lilang is approximately HK$ 4,897.7 million, with a target price of HK$ 4.85, indicating an upside potential of 18.6% from the current price of HK$ 4.09 [4][12]. - The stock has experienced a decline of 13.9% over the past three months, reflecting broader market challenges [4][12]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to open its first store in Malaysia as part of its overseas expansion strategy, leveraging its leadership in menswear and value-for-money products [6][12]. - The multi-brand strategy has been launched, with a focus on enhancing product and brand upgrades, which is expected to support long-term growth [2][6].

14 Aug 2024 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 TME (TME US) 内联第二季度业绩 ； 关注平衡增长 2H24E 中的音乐潜艇和 ARPPU US$16.00 TME 于 8 月 13 日宣布第二季度业绩 ： 总收入同比下降 2% 至 21.9% 71.6 亿元人民币 ， 符合我们 / 彭博社普遍估计的 71.6 / 71.3 亿元人民币 ； 非国际财务报告准则净收入同比增长 22% ， 达到 18.7 亿元人民币 ， 领先 2 / 2% 我们的 / 共识估计。对于 2H24E ， 管理层将更多地关注平衡 音乐潜艇和 ARPPU 的增长 ， 预计音乐用户网络会增加 但季度环比 ARPPU 持续增长 ， 这引发了一些投资者的担忧。 也就是说 ， 管理层重申了其长期目标 （ 1.5 亿音乐用户 & 每月 ARPPU 15 元人民币 ） 。我们对 TME 收益复合年增长率保持乐观 FY24 - 26E （ + 21% ） 受核心音乐收入增长和 GPM 扩张的推动。 我们维持 FY24 - 26 非国际财务报告准则净收入预测基本不变 ， 并且 将我们的 DCF 衍生 TP 维持在 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for FIT Hon Teng with a new target price of HK$4.25, reflecting an attractive risk-reward profile based on a 13x FY25E P/E ratio [11][12]. Core Insights - FIT Hon Teng reported strong Q2 2024 results, with revenue of US$1.102 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20%, and a net profit of US$22.3 million, significantly up from US$0.35 million in Q2 2023 [1][6]. - The company is optimistic about its AI server product line, with new power bus and liquid cooling CDU products passing customer certification, expected to contribute 1-3% to FY24E sales [1][11]. - The network business revenue is projected to grow at a high double-digit rate year-on-year, driven by robust demand in AI applications [1][11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY24E is estimated at US$4.677 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, and net profit is projected at US$183 million, reflecting a 41.8% increase [9][10]. - Gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to stabilize around 21% for FY24E and FY25E, with operating profit margin (OPM) targeted at 7% for FY24E [8][10]. - The company anticipates a rebound in revenue and net profit for FY24E, with expected growth rates of 12% and 42%, respectively [1][11]. Segment Performance - The automotive segment saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 231%, primarily due to the integration of Voltaira [1][6]. - The network segment experienced a 29% increase in demand, attributed to the growth in AI applications [1][6]. - The smartphone segment's performance was better than expected, aided by improved shipping strategies with major clients [1][6]. Earnings Revisions - FY25E earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been revised upwards by 13-23%, reflecting stronger performance expectations [2][9]. - The report highlights a significant increase in EPS for FY24E to 2.58 cents and for FY25E to 4.20 cents, indicating a positive outlook for profitability [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company with a target price of US$16.00, indicating a potential upside of 21.9% from the current price of US$13.13 [5][11]. Core Insights - The company reported inline 2Q24 results with total revenue declining by 2% YoY to RMB7.16 billion, while non-IFRS net income increased by 22% YoY to RMB1.87 billion, exceeding estimates [3][4]. - Management aims for balanced growth in music subscribers and ARPPU in 2H24E, with expectations of slower subscriber growth but continued ARPPU growth [3][4]. - The long-term target remains at 150 million music subscribers and RMB15 in monthly ARPPU, with a projected earnings CAGR of 21% over FY24-26E [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - Online music revenue grew by 28% YoY to RMB5.42 billion in 2Q24, accounting for 76% of total revenue, with subscription and non-subscription revenues increasing by 29% and 24% YoY, respectively [3][4]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) expanded by 7.7 percentage points YoY to 42.0% in 2Q24, driven by margin improvements in the online music business and enhanced monetization strategies [3][4][10]. - For FY24E, non-IFRS net income is estimated to grow by 27% YoY to RMB7.50 billion, supported by GPM expansion and operational expense control [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts total revenue growth of 8% YoY to RMB7.06 billion in 3Q24E, primarily driven by a 24% YoY increase in online music revenue, despite a decline in social entertainment revenue [3][4]. - GPM is expected to further expand to 42.8% in 3Q24E, with continued focus on high-value programs and AI technology to enhance user experience [3][4][10]. - The company’s valuation remains fair at 21x FY24E PE, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 49.80, indicating a potential upside of 97.6% from the current price of HKD 25.20 [3][11]. Core Insights - The company is recognized as a leading supplier of analog IC patterned wafers in China, with a unique full-stack design platform that integrates EDA, IP, and design processes. This positions the company favorably in the industrial-grade analog IC market, which is expected to support long-term profitability [7][20]. - The company is projected to achieve a robust revenue growth rate of 38.0% from 2023 to 2026, with stable profit margins expected to maintain at 54% gross margin and 23% net margin in 2024/25 [7][11]. - The valuation appears attractive, with a projected P/E ratio of 10.3x for 2024/25 compared to the industry average of 30.8x for Hong Kong-listed peers [7][11]. Financial Overview - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 353 million in FY22 to RMB 1,220 million by FY26, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38% [2]. - Gross margin is projected to remain stable, with estimates of 53.8% in FY24 and 54.3% in FY25 [2]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase from RMB 95.3 million in FY22 to RMB 305.2 million by FY26, with a CAGR of 45% [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company holds a 1.7% market share in the analog IC patterned wafer market, ranking first in revenue according to Frost & Sullivan [7][20]. - The industrial-grade analog IC market is characterized as a long-tail market with diverse downstream demand and lower competition compared to consumer-grade markets. The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.5% from 2024 to 2027, reaching RMB 242 billion [9][29]. - The company has established strong partnerships with distributors, with 87% of its revenue in 2023 coming from distribution channels, indicating a strategic approach to leverage partner resources for growth [32]. Competitive Advantages - The company possesses three key differentiators: being a leading supplier of analog IC patterned wafers, focusing on the industrial-grade analog IC market, and having the only full-stack analog IC design platform in China [22][20]. - The full-stack design platform enhances efficiency in IC design and wafer delivery, reduces geopolitical risks, and provides cost advantages [10][20]. - The company has developed over 400 models of industrial-grade analog IC patterned wafers, with a projected CAGR of 23.4% in product variety from 2023 to 2026 [7][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for FIT Hon Teng with a new target price of HK$ 4.25, indicating an upside potential of 88.1% from the current price of HK$ 2.26 [4][12]. Core Insights - FIT Hon Teng reported strong 2Q24 results, with revenue of US$ 1,102 million, reflecting a 20% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of US$ 22.3 million, a significant improvement from US$ 0.35 million in 2Q23 [2][6]. - The company has raised its FY24E guidance for networking business revenue to high double-digit year-over-year growth, up from a previous estimate of 5-15% [2][12]. - The earnings growth is driven by the networking business and the EV segment, which saw a remarkable 231% year-over-year increase due to the Voltaira merger [2][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at US$ 4,677 million, with expected growth of 11.5% year-over-year, and net profit is projected to reach US$ 183.5 million, reflecting a 41.6% increase [3][10]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to improve to 20.6% in FY24E, with operating profit margin (OPM) targeted at 7.0% [8][10]. - The company anticipates a rebound in revenue and net profit for FY24E, with expectations of 12% and 42% year-over-year growth, respectively [2][12]. Segment Performance - The EV segment's revenue surged by 231% year-over-year, while the networking segment grew by 29% year-over-year, driven by strong AI demand [2][6]. - The smartphone segment also performed better than expected, benefiting from key customer shipment improvements [2][6]. Earnings Revision - The report indicates that FY25-26E EPS estimates are 13-23% above consensus, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [2][10]. - Adjustments to FY24-26E EPS have been made to account for higher gross profit margins, offset by increased operating expenses for new products [2][10]. Valuation - The stock is currently trading at 11.2x FY24E P/E and 6.9x FY25E P/E, which is considered attractive given the projected 42% and 63% year-over-year EPS growth for FY24 and FY25, respectively [2][12].

2024 年 8 月 13 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 ` 公司点评 公司点评 贝壳（BEKE US，买入，目标价：21.5 美元）- 在不确定环境中稳固市场份 额增长 贝壳公布 2Q24 业绩：收入同比增长 20%，达到 234 亿元人民币，较招银预 期和彭博一致预期均高 9%，这得益于新房交易和二手房交易的 GTV 超出预 期，以及在行业强劲的去库存需求下新房交易的费率扩张超出预期。季度 non-GAAP 净利润为 27 亿元人民币，较招银预期及市场一致预期均高 48%， 得益于收入超出预期和运营费用支出相较预期更为优化。我们对贝壳在其核 心业务的市场份额扩张持积极态度，这得益于其完备的基础设施和灵活的业 务运营能力，并看好贝壳新业务的发展前景。我们基于 SOTP 的目标价微调 至 21.5 美元（前值：22.0 美元），包括贝壳核心业务的 20.6 美元和圣都的 0.9 美元，对应 20.8x 2024E non-GAAP PE。维持"买入"评级。（链接） 361 度 （1361 HK ，买入，目标价：5.15 港元） - 行业压力仍在，但估值足 够合理 24 年上半 ...