Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Ping An with a target price of HK$52.00, implying a potential upside of 52.5% from the current price of HK$34.10 [5][4]. Core Insights - The issuance of US$3.5 billion convertible bonds is expected to have a limited dilutive impact of approximately 3.43% on existing shares, with the initial conversion price set at HK$43.71, representing a premium of 21.2% over the closing price on July 15, 2024 [4][20]. - The potential use of proceeds from the convertible bonds is aimed at boosting the core solvency ratio of Ping An Life, which is projected to rise by 6.4 percentage points to 125.2% in 1Q24, assuming all proceeds are injected into the business [4][29]. - The stock is currently trading at FY24E 0.48x P/EV and 0.70x P/B, with an expected dividend yield of 8.0% and FY24E ROE at 13.2% [4][17]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, the net profit is estimated at RMB 154.021 billion, with an EPS of RMB 7.18, reflecting a growth trajectory from previous years [17][24]. - The core solvency ratio for Ping An Life was reported at 118.8% in 1Q24, which is above the industry average of 113.5% [4][29]. - The comprehensive solvency ratio for Ping An P&C is projected to be 199.1% in 1Q24, indicating strong financial health [9][4]. Share Capital and Structure - Following the full conversion of the bonds, the total number of H-shares will increase to approximately 8.07 billion, accounting for 42.9% of the enlarged share capital [4][20]. - The report also notes the cancellation of 102.6 million A-shares, which will partially offset the dilutive effect of the convertible bonds and increase the H-share proportion to 43.1% [4][20]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights a projected dividend yield of 8.0% for FY24E, with a consistent increase in dividend payouts expected over the next few years [17][35]. - The P/B ratio is expected to decrease to 0.63x by FY25E, indicating a potential undervaluation of the stock [40][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$52.00, implying a 52.5% upside from the current price of HK$34.10 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company announced the issuance of US$3.5 billion in convertible bonds (CB) with a conversion premium of 21.2%, which is expected to have a limited dilution effect of approximately 3.43% on existing shares [5][12][23]. - The financing is anticipated to support the core subsidiary, Ping An Life, with a relatively low cost of capital, enhancing its solvency ratios [5][15]. - The estimated core solvency ratio for Ping An Life is projected to increase by 6.4 percentage points to 125.2% following the capital injection from the CB issuance [5][26]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected net profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB 154.021 billion, with an EPS of RMB 7.18 [5][46]. - The dividend per share (DPS) is expected to be HK$2.53 for FY24E, reflecting a dividend yield of 8.0% [5][46]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.2% for FY24E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][46]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 0.48x for FY24E and a price-to-embedded value (P/EV) of 1.0x [2][46]. - The estimated net asset return rate is 13.2% for FY24E, which is favorable compared to industry averages [5][46]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a decline of 5.41% following the CB announcement, but this is viewed as a short-term fluctuation [2][6]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HK$620.961 billion, with a 52-week high of HK$56.25 and a low of HK$29.80 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu with a target price of $183.00 per ADS, indicating a potential upside of 96.5% from the current price of $93.15 [3][6]. Core Insights - Baidu's core business revenue growth for Q2 2024 is expected to meet the report's expectations but fall slightly short of broader market expectations due to proactive business adjustments and a soft macroeconomic environment affecting overall advertising budgets. However, these adjustments are anticipated to enhance user experience and long-term monetization prospects [2]. - The profitability of Baidu's cloud segment is expanding, driven by increased penetration of fully autonomous vehicles and the deployment of new car models, which may improve the unit economics of its Robotaxi business [2]. - The report estimates Baidu's core revenue for Q2 2024 at RMB 26.3 billion, flat year-over-year but 2.7% below Bloomberg's expectations, primarily due to advertising performance [2]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, Baidu's revenue is projected to be RMB 138.474 billion, reflecting a 2.9% year-over-year growth. Adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 27.667 billion, a decrease of 3.8% compared to FY23A [5][10]. - The report forecasts Baidu's cloud revenue to grow by 14% year-over-year in Q2 2024, up from 12% in Q1 2024 and 5% in Q2 2023, driven by AI-related cloud revenue growth [2][10]. - The report highlights that the penetration rate of fully autonomous vehicles in Baidu's Robotaxi service has increased significantly, with over 70% of rides in Wuhan being provided by fully autonomous vehicles as of April 2024 [2]. Valuation - The SOTP (Sum of the Parts) valuation for Baidu is maintained at $183.00 per ADS, based on a non-GAAP PE of 17.1x for FY24E, translating to 11.1x if net cash is excluded. The core business is valued at $69.2 per ADS, while the cloud segment is valued at $32.2 per ADS [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Baidu, with a target price of US$183.00 per ADS, indicating a potential upside of 96.5% from the current price of US$93.15 [2][3]. Core Insights - Baidu's core business is expected to deliver revenue growth in line with expectations, albeit slightly slower than market consensus for 2Q24, primarily due to proactive business adjustments to integrate more GenAI-related results in search, which are currently under-monetized [2]. - The cloud segment is on a profitability expansion track, and the increasing penetration of fully driverless cars is anticipated to improve unit economics for the Robotaxi business [2]. - The proactive adjustments in the core business are expected to enhance user experience and long-term monetization prospects, despite a soft macroeconomic environment affecting overall advertising budgets [2]. Financial Forecast - For 2Q24, Baidu Core is estimated to have booked revenue of RMB26.3 billion, flat year-over-year but 2.7% lower than Bloomberg consensus, mainly due to advertising performance [2]. - The forecast for Baidu Core's advertising revenue is RMB19.0 billion, down 3.0% year-over-year, influenced by the integration of GenAI-related search results, softer economic growth, and intense industry competition [2]. - Non-GAAP operating profit for Baidu Core is expected to be RMB6.5 billion in 2Q24, translating to a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 24.7% [2]. Segment Performance - Baidu Cloud revenue is projected to grow by 14% year-over-year in 2Q24, up from 12% in 1Q24 and 5% in 2Q23, driven by the ramp-up of AI-related cloud revenue [2]. - The rides provided by fully driverless vehicles accounted for over 70% of the total for Robotaxi in April 2024, a significant increase from previous quarters, with expectations to reach 100% in the near future [2]. - The new-generation car RT6 is priced at RMB204.6k, significantly lower than the RT5, which is expected to reduce hardware depreciation costs post-deployment [2]. Valuation - The SOTP-based target price of US$183.0 per ADS translates into 17.1x 2024E PE on a non-GAAP basis, or 11.1x if excluding net cash [7]. - The valuation breakdown includes US$69.2 for Baidu Core, US$1.8 for Apollo ASD, US$32.2 for Baidu Cloud, US$64.6 of net cash, and US$15.2 for iQIYI and other investments [7].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of Minth Group with a BUY rating and a target price of HK$21.00, indicating a potential upside of 70.2% from the current price of HK$12.34 [2][4][51]. Core Insights - Minth Group is transitioning from a manufacturer of exterior decorative parts to a diversified tier-1 supplier with capabilities in various materials, positioning it well against trade risks due to its solid overseas foundation [2][15][17]. - The company’s overseas operations contributed approximately 10% to its total net profit in FY23, with expectations for overseas net profit to double by FY26E [2][21]. - The battery housing segment is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenue increases of 60% in FY24, 35% in FY25, and 30% in FY26, driven by the global EV market expansion [2][33][36]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1992, Minth Group has evolved into a diversified tier-1 supplier with multi-material manufacturing capabilities, generating 51% of its revenue from China, 24% from North America, and 20% from Europe in FY23 [15][16]. - The battery housing business, initiated in 2019, accounted for 17% of total revenue in FY23, with significant growth potential in related chassis structural parts [15][23]. Investment Thesis - Minth's extensive overseas experience provides a competitive edge in navigating trade risks, with profitable operations in Mexico and Serbia [17][18]. - The company is well-positioned to supply Chinese OEMs for local production in Europe, helping them bypass tariffs imposed on EVs produced in China [19][21]. Financial Analysis - Revenue is projected to grow by 19% in FY24, 15% in FY25, and 13% in FY26, with net profit expected to increase by 18%, 14%, and 13% respectively during the same period [41][46]. - The gross margin is anticipated to be around 27.2% in FY24, slightly declining due to the rising contribution from the battery housing segment [42][49]. Valuation - The target price of HK$21.00 is based on a 10x FY24E P/E, reflecting a historical average and the current low valuation of the stock [51][52].

招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 宏观经济 中国经济 - 中国更需要需求侧刺激 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------|---------------|-------------| | 环球主要股市上日表现 | 收市价 | 升跌（ \n单日 | % ） \n年内 | | 恒生指数 | 18,016 | -1.52 | 5.68 | | 恒生国企 | 6,422 | -1.70 | 11.32 | | 恒生科技 | 3,673 | -2.90 | -2.44 | | 上证综指 | 2,974 | 0.09 | -0.03 | | 深证综指 | 1,604 | -0.83 | -12.72 | | 深圳创业板 | 1,673 | -0.63 | -11.55 | | | | | | | 美国道琼斯 | 40,212 | 0.53 | 6.69 | | 美国标普 500 | 5,631 | 0.28 | 18.06 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 18,473 | 0.40 | 23.06 | | 德国 DAX | 18,591 | ...

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15 Jul 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Earnings growth stability continues | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------| | (YE 31 Dec) | FY22A | FY23A | FY24E | FY25E | FY26E | | Revenue (RMB mn) | 554,552 | 609,015 | 658,280 | 712,260 | 764,432 | | Gross margin (%) | 43.1 | 48.1 | 53.1 | 53.8 | 54.3 | | Adjusted net profit (RMB mn) | 115,649.0 | 157,688.0 | 198,794.6 | 218,584.6 | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Bilibili (BILI US) with a target price of **$20.50**, implying a potential upside of **22.7%** from the current price of **$16.71** [1][3] Core Views - Bilibili's **community ecosystem** and **commercialization** are showing healthy growth, with **user stickiness** and **commercial value** improving due to the expansion of diversified content categories such as knowledge and consumer-related content [1] - The company's **commercial infrastructure** has been enhanced, leading to a **50% YoY increase** in the number of advertisers and a **100% YoY growth** in GMV from live-streaming e-commerce in 1H24 [1] - The **gaming business** has entered its third "five-year plan," focusing on both self-developed and agency games, with plans to launch at least two new long-term vertical games in the next five years [1] - The short-term catalyst for the stock is the **better-than-expected performance** of the mobile game *San Mou*, while the long-term outlook is positive due to the company's improving **commercialization capabilities** and **profitability** [1] Content Ecosystem - Bilibili has expanded its content categories beyond traditional strengths, with **knowledge and consumer-related content** growing rapidly, contributing to a **5 percentage point increase** in the share of diversified content video views [1][7] - In 1H24, video views (VV) for **automotive/travel/home improvement** categories grew by **48%/40%/43% YoY**, respectively, driving higher **creator revenue** and **user spending** on the platform [1][7] - **Creator revenue** increased by **32% YoY** in 1H24, with income from **Hua Huo orders/charging/classroom projects** growing by **31%/371%/52% YoY**, respectively [7] - The number of users with **spending behavior** on the platform grew by **71% YoY** in 1H24 [7] Commercialization Infrastructure - Bilibili has improved its **advertising infrastructure** through: 1) enhanced ad distribution by optimizing user experience and ad load rates, 2) better ad creatives using AIGC technology, 3) integrated ad tools like *Bi Huo Mobile*, which saw **300% YoY growth** in ad revenue in 1H24, and 4) improved data insights for advertisers via *B-Data* and *Z-Index* [1][8] - The number of advertisers on the platform increased by **50% YoY** in 1H24, with **game industry ad revenue** growing over **30% YoY** and **internet services/education/finance ad revenue** growing over **100% YoY** [8] - During the **618 shopping festival**, platform GMV grew by **146% YoY**, and ad revenue increased by over **30% YoY**, with new customer acquisition rates exceeding **50%** for e-commerce platforms [8] Gaming Business - The success of *San Mou* is attributed to its **differentiated positioning**, **reduced user burden** (shorter playtime and lower in-game item prices), and **innovative content** tailored for young users [9] - Bilibili's gaming strategy focuses on: 1) developing games that appeal to young users, 2) a dual approach of **self-development and agency**, 3) maintaining leadership in content-driven games, and 4) launching at least two new **long-term vertical games** in the next five years [1][9] - The company expects the gaming business to become a **major profit driver** in the long term, supported by the **long lifecycle** of SLG games and the team's commitment to **user experience** and **content quality** [9] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from **RMB 25.5 billion in FY24E** to **RMB 29.3 billion in FY26E**, with **gross margins** improving from **30.0% in FY24E** to **34.3% in FY26E** [2] - Adjusted net profit is projected to turn positive in **FY25E** at **RMB 1.16 billion**, increasing to **RMB 1.44 billion in FY26E** [2] - The company's **P/S ratio** is expected to decline from **2.0x in FY24E** to **1.7x in FY26E**, reflecting improving profitability [2] Valuation and Market Performance - Bilibili's stock has shown strong performance, with **1-month/3-month/6-month absolute returns** of **16.1%/45.6%/56.9%**, outperforming the market in relative terms [5] - The company's **market cap** stands at **$6.91 billion**, with **52-week high/low prices** of **$19.07/$8.94** [4]

12 Jul 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Naura Technology (002371 CH) 1H24 profit alert points to solid 2Q results Naura announced a 1H24 profit alert. 1H revenue is expected to be within the range of RMB11.4-13.1bn, representing 35.4% to 55.9% YoY growth, respectively. Net profit is estimated to be RMB2.6-3.0bn (YoY growth of 42.8% to 64.5%). This implies that 2Q24 revenue (mid-point) could be RMB6.4bn (40.8% YoY and 9.5% QoQ growth), 5% below consensus estimate. 2Q24 ...