CMBIGM 不是美国的注册经纪交易商。因此，CMBIGM 不受 U.S.关于研究报告准备和研究分析师独立性的规则。主要负责本研究报告内容的研究分析师未在金融业监管局 （ "FINRA " ） 注册或获得研究分析师资格。分析师不受 FINRA 规则的适用限制，旨在确保分析师不会受到可能影响研究报告可靠性的潜在利益冲突的影响。本报告仅在美国发布给 "美国主要机 构投资者 "，如美国《 1934 年证券交易法》第 15a - 6 条所述，不得提供给美国的任何其他人。收到本报告副本并接受本报告的每个主要美国机构投资者均表示并同意其不得向任何其 他人分发或提供本报告。任何 U.S.本报告的收件人希望根据本报告中提供的信息进行任何买卖证券的交易，只能通过美国S.- 注册经纪交易商。 本文件在新加坡的收件人 本报告由 CMBI (新加坡) Pte 在新加坡分发。有限公司 （ CMBISG ） （ 公司注册。不。201731928D)，《财务顾问法》 (第110) 由新加坡金融管理局监管。CMBISG 可以根据《财务 顾问条例》第 32C 条的安排分发其各自的外国实体、附属公司或其他外国研究机构制作的报告。如果报告在新加坡 ...

15 Jul 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Earnings growth stability continues | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------| | (YE 31 Dec) | FY22A | FY23A | FY24E | FY25E | FY26E | | Revenue (RMB mn) | 554,552 | 609,015 | 658,280 | 712,260 | 764,432 | | Gross margin (%) | 43.1 | 48.1 | 53.1 | 53.8 | 54.3 | | Adjusted net profit (RMB mn) | 115,649.0 | 157,688.0 | 198,794.6 | 218,584.6 | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Bilibili (BILI US) with a target price of **$20.50**, implying a potential upside of **22.7%** from the current price of **$16.71** [1][3] Core Views - Bilibili's **community ecosystem** and **commercialization** are showing healthy growth, with **user stickiness** and **commercial value** improving due to the expansion of diversified content categories such as knowledge and consumer-related content [1] - The company's **commercial infrastructure** has been enhanced, leading to a **50% YoY increase** in the number of advertisers and a **100% YoY growth** in GMV from live-streaming e-commerce in 1H24 [1] - The **gaming business** has entered its third "five-year plan," focusing on both self-developed and agency games, with plans to launch at least two new long-term vertical games in the next five years [1] - The short-term catalyst for the stock is the **better-than-expected performance** of the mobile game *San Mou*, while the long-term outlook is positive due to the company's improving **commercialization capabilities** and **profitability** [1] Content Ecosystem - Bilibili has expanded its content categories beyond traditional strengths, with **knowledge and consumer-related content** growing rapidly, contributing to a **5 percentage point increase** in the share of diversified content video views [1][7] - In 1H24, video views (VV) for **automotive/travel/home improvement** categories grew by **48%/40%/43% YoY**, respectively, driving higher **creator revenue** and **user spending** on the platform [1][7] - **Creator revenue** increased by **32% YoY** in 1H24, with income from **Hua Huo orders/charging/classroom projects** growing by **31%/371%/52% YoY**, respectively [7] - The number of users with **spending behavior** on the platform grew by **71% YoY** in 1H24 [7] Commercialization Infrastructure - Bilibili has improved its **advertising infrastructure** through: 1) enhanced ad distribution by optimizing user experience and ad load rates, 2) better ad creatives using AIGC technology, 3) integrated ad tools like *Bi Huo Mobile*, which saw **300% YoY growth** in ad revenue in 1H24, and 4) improved data insights for advertisers via *B-Data* and *Z-Index* [1][8] - The number of advertisers on the platform increased by **50% YoY** in 1H24, with **game industry ad revenue** growing over **30% YoY** and **internet services/education/finance ad revenue** growing over **100% YoY** [8] - During the **618 shopping festival**, platform GMV grew by **146% YoY**, and ad revenue increased by over **30% YoY**, with new customer acquisition rates exceeding **50%** for e-commerce platforms [8] Gaming Business - The success of *San Mou* is attributed to its **differentiated positioning**, **reduced user burden** (shorter playtime and lower in-game item prices), and **innovative content** tailored for young users [9] - Bilibili's gaming strategy focuses on: 1) developing games that appeal to young users, 2) a dual approach of **self-development and agency**, 3) maintaining leadership in content-driven games, and 4) launching at least two new **long-term vertical games** in the next five years [1][9] - The company expects the gaming business to become a **major profit driver** in the long term, supported by the **long lifecycle** of SLG games and the team's commitment to **user experience** and **content quality** [9] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from **RMB 25.5 billion in FY24E** to **RMB 29.3 billion in FY26E**, with **gross margins** improving from **30.0% in FY24E** to **34.3% in FY26E** [2] - Adjusted net profit is projected to turn positive in **FY25E** at **RMB 1.16 billion**, increasing to **RMB 1.44 billion in FY26E** [2] - The company's **P/S ratio** is expected to decline from **2.0x in FY24E** to **1.7x in FY26E**, reflecting improving profitability [2] Valuation and Market Performance - Bilibili's stock has shown strong performance, with **1-month/3-month/6-month absolute returns** of **16.1%/45.6%/56.9%**, outperforming the market in relative terms [5] - The company's **market cap** stands at **$6.91 billion**, with **52-week high/low prices** of **$19.07/$8.94** [4]

12 Jul 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Naura Technology (002371 CH) 1H24 profit alert points to solid 2Q results Naura announced a 1H24 profit alert. 1H revenue is expected to be within the range of RMB11.4-13.1bn, representing 35.4% to 55.9% YoY growth, respectively. Net profit is estimated to be RMB2.6-3.0bn (YoY growth of 42.8% to 64.5%). This implies that 2Q24 revenue (mid-point) could be RMB6.4bn (40.8% YoY and 9.5% QoQ growth), 5% below consensus estimate. 2Q24 ...

买入 : 股价于未来 12 个月的潜在涨幅超过 15% 持有 : 股价于未来 12 个月的潜在变幅在-10%至+15%之间 卖出 : 股价于未来 12 个月的潜在跌幅超过 10% 未评级 : 招银国际环球市场并未给予投资评级 本报告内所提及的任何投资都可能涉及相当大的风险。报告所载数据可能不适合所有投资者。招银国际环球市场不提供任何针对个人的投资建议。本报告没有把任何人的 投资目标、财务状况和特殊需求考虑进去。而过去的表现亦不代表未来的表现，实际情况可能和报告中所载的大不相同。本报告中所提及的投资价值或回报存在不确定性 及难以保证，并可能会受目标资产表现以及其他市场因素影响。招银国际环球市场建议投资者应该独立评估投资和策略，并鼓励投资者咨询专业财务顾问以便作出投资决 定。 本报告包含的任何信息由招银国际环球市场编写，仅为本公司及其关联机构的特定客户和其他专业人士提供的参考数据。报告中的信息或所表达的意见皆不可作为或被视 为证券出售要约或证券买卖的邀请，亦不构成任何投资、法律、会计或税务方面的最终操作建议，本公司及其雇员不就报告中的内容对最终操作建议作出任何担保。我们 不对因依赖本报告所载资料采取任何行动而引致 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Xtep, with a target price of HK$7.32, reflecting a potential upside of 46.5% from the current price of HK$5.00 [2][4]. Core Views - Xtep is expected to mildly outperform the sportswear industry in 2H24E due to successful new product launches, robust e-commerce sales growth, and limited operating deleverage from its wholesale business model [2][7]. - The company anticipates retail sales growth of 10%+ for FY24E, with adjustments to the listed company level sales growth projected at high single digits to low teens due to the sale of K&P [2][8]. - The strong performance of Saucony, with retail sales growth exceeding 50% in 1H24, is expected to continue driving net profit margins above expectations [2][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected at RMB 15,322 million, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [3][12]. - Operating profit is estimated at RMB 1,920 million, with a net profit of RMB 1,266 million, reflecting a net profit margin of 8.3% [3][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY24E is projected at RMB 0.463, with a year-on-year growth of 18.6% [3][12]. Sales and Growth Drivers - Successful new product launches, particularly the 360X running shoes, have significantly contributed to sales momentum, with over 800,000 pairs sold since launch [2][7]. - E-commerce sales have shown robust growth, particularly on platforms like Douyin, with online sales increasing by more than 25% in 2Q24 [2][7]. - The company has improved its inventory to sales ratio, reducing it to four months, which is the lowest level since 2Q22, leading to improved retail discounts [2][7]. Margin Outlook - Gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 42.3% for FY24E, while operating profit margin is projected to improve due to reduced losses from the sale of K&P and a decrease in advertising and promotion expenses [2][8]. - The report anticipates a net profit margin of 8.3% for FY24E, with potential for further improvement in subsequent years [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xtep, with a target price adjusted to HKD 7.32, based on a FY24E price-to-earnings ratio of 14 times [1][2]. Core Views - Despite significant pressure in the sportswear industry, Xtep is expected to perform moderately better in the second half of 2024 due to successful product launches, strong e-commerce sales growth, and limited operational leverage from its wholesale business [1]. - The company has maintained its retail sales growth guidance for FY24E at over 10%, although adjustments have been made to the sales growth forecast due to the sale of K&P [1]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the Saucony brand, with retail sales growth exceeding 50% in 1H24, significantly outperforming many other overseas brands [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million RMB): FY22A 12,930, FY23A 14,346, FY24E 15,322, FY25E 15,979, FY26E 17,494 [2]. - Year-over-Year Growth Rate (%): FY24E 6.8%, FY25E 4.3%, FY26E 9.5% [2]. - Net Profit (in million RMB): FY22A 912.3, FY23A 1,033.0, FY24E 1,275.3, FY25E 1,499.6, FY26E 1,756.7 [2]. - Earnings Per Share (in RMB): FY24E 0.46, FY25E 0.54, FY26E 0.64 [2]. - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (x): FY24E 9.6, FY25E 8.1, FY26E 6.9 [2]. - Dividend Yield (%): FY24E 14.1, FY25E 5.8, FY26E 6.8 [2]. Sales Performance - Xtep's retail sales growth in 2Q24 was reported at 10%, consistent with estimates and better than market expectations [6]. - Online sales surged over 25% in 2Q24, while offline sales showed modest growth [6]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio improved, indicating better inventory management and reduced retail discounts [6]. Brand Performance - Saucony's retail sales growth in 1H24 was over 50%, with expectations for continued strong performance in 2H24 due to new product launches and brand ambassador signings [1]. - The report notes that Xtep's strong e-commerce sales are supported by an increase in value products [1]. Adjustments and Forecasts - FY24E net profit estimates have been adjusted by -1%, +1%, and -1% for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E respectively [1]. - The report indicates that the gross profit margin is expected to stabilize, while operating profit margin may improve due to reduced losses from the sale of K&P and lower advertising and promotion expenses [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Q-Tech with a target price (TP) raised to HKD 6.47, reflecting a potential upside of 29.6% from the current price of HKD 4.99 [1][2][9]. Core Insights - Q-Tech has announced a positive profit warning for 1H24, projecting a net profit increase of 400-500% year-on-year, reaching between RMB 1.09 billion and RMB 1.3 billion. This aligns with the firm's and market's FY24E estimates of 29-34% and 40-47% growth, respectively [1][9]. - The optimistic outlook is driven by several factors, including increased market share in high-end Camera Module (CCM), growth in automotive and IoT CCM, improved utilization rates (UTR), and better profitability from joint ventures like Newmax [1][9]. - For 2H24E, the report anticipates further growth from the launch of flagship Android models, high-end specification upgrades, and recovery in automotive and IoT CCM segments, which are expected to enhance profitability [1][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at RMB 17.025 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 35.9%. For FY25E and FY26E, revenues are expected to reach RMB 17.593 billion and RMB 19.503 billion, respectively [2][5][7]. - The net profit for FY24E is projected at RMB 386 million, with significant increases expected in subsequent years, reaching RMB 536 million in FY25E and RMB 657 million in FY26E [2][5][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been revised upward by 2-12% for FY25-26E, reflecting stronger profitability and growth expectations [1][9]. Market Performance - Q-Tech's stock has shown strong performance, with a 1-month return of 41.8% and a 3-month return of 44.6%, indicating positive market sentiment [3]. - The stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected at 14.3x for FY24E and 10.3x for FY25E, suggesting that the stock is attractively valued compared to its earnings growth potential [2][9]. Outlook - The report highlights that the upcoming catalysts for Q-Tech include a recovery in shipment volumes, new product launches, and winning orders in non-smartphone CCM segments, which are expected to drive long-term revenue growth [1][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Q-Tech with a new target price (TP) of HK$6.47, up from the previous TP of HK$3.93, indicating a potential upside of 29.6% from the current price of HK$4.99 [5][14]. Core Insights - Q-Tech announced a positive profit alert for 1H24, projecting a net profit growth of 400-500% year-on-year, reaching RMB109-130 million, which aligns with 29-34% and 40-47% of the firm's and consensus FY24 estimates respectively [3][12]. - The growth is attributed to several factors including an increased share of high-end CCM, growth in auto/IoT CCM, rising UTR, and improved profitability from the associate Newmax [3][14]. - The outlook for 2H24 remains positive, driven by flagship model launches, high-end specification upgrades, and recovery in FPM, which are expected to enhance profitability [3][14]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected at RMB17,025 million, with a year-on-year growth of 35.9% [4][12]. - Net profit for FY24E is expected to be RMB386 million, reflecting a significant recovery from previous years [12][19]. - The report anticipates EPS growth of 372.7% for FY24E, with further increases in FY25E and FY26E [4][12]. Earnings Forecasts - The report raises FY25-26E EPS by 2-12% to account for stronger 1H24 earnings and improved gross profit margins [3][14]. - The gross profit margin is expected to recover to 7.5% in FY25E and 7.2% in FY26E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [12][19]. Market Position - Q-Tech is trading at attractive multiples of 14.3x and 10.3x FY24/25E P/E, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to its peers [3][14]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery in the global smartphone market and increasing demand for non-mobile CCM applications, particularly in automotive and IoT sectors [3][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for JD.com with an unchanged DCF-based target price of US$51.9, indicating a potential upside of 93.9% from the current price of US$26.76 [10][22]. Core Insights - JD.com is expected to report 2Q24 revenue of RMB290.9 billion, reflecting a 1.0% year-over-year increase, and a non-GAAP net income of RMB9.9 billion, which is 16% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates [2][12]. - The company is focusing on return on investment (ROI) and quality growth strategies, which may lead to better-than-expected earnings despite challenges in the electronic and home appliance sectors [2][12]. - JD Retail's revenue is projected to be RMB254.2 billion in 2Q24, up 0.3% year-over-year, with a non-GAAP operating profit of RMB9.2 billion, representing a 12% increase year-over-year [2][12]. Revenue and Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised down by 0.6-0.9% due to a lower expectation for electronic and home appliance revenue, while the non-GAAP net income forecast has been lifted by 4-5% due to more efficient spending [2][12]. - JD's projected revenue for 2024 is RMB1,150.6 billion, with a gross profit of RMB173.6 billion and a non-GAAP net profit of RMB38.5 billion [4][19]. - The non-GAAP net margin is expected to improve to 3.6% in 2024, up from 3.2% in 2023 [4][21]. Valuation Metrics - JD's current valuation is at 8/7x 2024/2025E non-GAAP PE, which is considered not demanding compared to an 11% non-GAAP earnings CAGR over 2023-2026 [2][12]. - The target price of US$51.9 translates into a 15x 2024E PE (non-GAAP) [12][22]. Key Catalysts - Potential catalysts for JD's valuation include further enhancement of shareholder returns and a recovery in consumer spending, which could improve revenue and earnings growth outlook [2][12].