招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 公司点评 美国互联网和软件公司在 1Q24 的营收增长表现喜忧参半：广告和云服务的 收入增长呈现出重新加速的趋势，而 SaaS 的收入增长则环比略有下降。然 而，在劳动力成本优化、规模经济提升及运营效率提升的推动下，软件互联 网公司的利润率稳步扩张趋势在 1Q 进一步显现，且我们认为趋势有望在 2Q24延续，尽管下半年或将面临更高的利润率基数。AI相关变现及利润率扩 张仍是互联网及软件公司的关键投资主题，且行业股票表现有望对未来的降 息反应积极，尽管降息预期或已部分反映在股价中。选股方面，我们推荐微 软（MSFT US; 买入；在生成式人工智能快速发展及其变现的浪潮中处于有 利位置），亚马逊（AMZN US; 买入；利润率稳步扩张或仍有望超出市场预 期），以及 ServiceNow（NOW US; 买入；cRPO 的稳健增长和盈利能力扩 张有望持续）。（链接） 舜宇光学科技（2382 HK，持有，目标价：47.31 港元）- 看好高端手机规格 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|--------------|-- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Haidilao with a target price of HK$21.52, indicating a potential upside of 46.6% from the current price of HK$14.68 [5][7]. Core Views - The management change at Haidilao, with Yang Lijuan resigning as CEO and Gou Yiqun taking over, is viewed as neutral for the company's operations, which continue to improve [2][3]. - Haidilao's financial performance has exceeded expectations, with significant improvements in table turnover rates and successful completion of operational programs [3]. - The company is confident in achieving its FY24E target of single-digit percentage growth in new store openings, despite a slow expansion pace in the near term [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 41,453 million in FY23A to RMB 47,018 million in FY24E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.4% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 4,495.4 million in FY23A to RMB 4,996.6 million in FY24E, with a diluted EPS of RMB 0.89 for FY24E [4][8]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 16.9x in FY23A to 15.3x in FY24E, indicating an attractive valuation for long-term investors [4][9]. Operational Insights - Haidilao has successfully reopened 50 to 100 previously closed stores, contributing to a remarkable table turnover rate of approximately 4.3 times in the first five months of 2024 [3]. - The introduction of new products and enhanced customer engagement strategies have positively impacted the brand's market presence and customer loyalty [3]. - The potential for new store openings is bolstered by the upcoming launch of franchising stores and the success of campus stores [3]. Market Position - Haidilao's market capitalization stands at HK$81,826.3 million, with significant shareholding by Mr. Zhang Yong (60.4%) and Mr. Shi Sean (9.4%) [4]. - The stock has shown a relative performance of -20.6% over the past month, indicating a potential buying opportunity for investors [4][5].

FIT Hon Teng ( 6088 香港 ) CMBI Corp Day 外卖 : FY24 / 25E 中 AI 服务器 , AI PC / 电话 和 AirPods 的多个增长动力 我们于 6 月 25 日在 CMBI 技术公司日主持了 FIT Ho Teg ( FIT ) 。在 6 月初 Comptex 和 WWDC 后上涨 50 % 之后,投资者对 1 ) 2025 年下半年 AI 服务器上涨,2 ) 越南 / 印度 AirPods 增加,3 ) 新的 EV 合资企业和机会,以及 4 ) AI PC / 电话周期表示强烈兴趣。管 理。在智能手机 / 网络领域,2Q24 版本 / GPM 指导有望实现上行潜力。总体而言,我们对 FIT 在 FY24 / 25E 的多个增长动力 ( AI 服务器连接器,AirPods,EV 业务 ) 持积极态度, 并预计 AI 服务器内容价值,一般服务器恢复和 AI PC / 智能手机的上升周期将进一步上升。 在审查 TP 的情况下保持买入。 | | | | | | | | | | |------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 47.31, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.9 times FY25E earnings [8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a high-end upgrade cycle driven by AI smartphones, ADAS mixed lenses, and AR Glass opportunities, indicating a positive outlook for growth [2][8]. - The management has raised global and China smartphone shipment forecasts for 2024 by 1.7% and 1.1%, respectively, suggesting a recovery in the smartphone market [2]. - The automotive segment is projected to maintain a gross profit margin (GPM) of over 40%, driven by growth in automotive modules [2]. - The XR business is anticipated to see diffraction waveguides become mainstream, positioning AR Glass as the next computing platform [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to increase from RMB 31,681 million in FY23A to RMB 36,545 million in FY24E, representing a year-over-year growth of 15.4% [6]. - Net profit is expected to recover from RMB 1,099.4 million in FY23A to RMB 1,351.2 million in FY24E, with a year-over-year growth of 22.9% [6]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 1.01 in FY23A to RMB 1.24 in FY24E [6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 43.9x in FY23A to 35.7x in FY24E [6]. Market Position and Valuation - The company holds a leading position in the camera module (CCM) market in China, with a target P/E of 18x reflecting its advanced technology capabilities [8]. - The automotive lens business is assigned a P/E of 35x due to its high profitability and growth potential, with a CAGR of 25% from FY20 to FY23E [8]. - The smartphone lens segment is valued at a P/E of 25x, indicating confidence in its growth trajectory amid ongoing upgrades [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for FIT Hon Teng with the target price currently under review [2][9][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from multiple growth drivers in FY24/25, including AI server connectors, AirPods production ramp-up, and new opportunities in the electric vehicle (EV) sector [2][9]. - Management has indicated that revenue and gross profit margin (GPM) guidance for Q2 2024 is on track, with potential upside in the smartphone and networking segments [2][9]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the iPhone replacement cycle and potential order wins in AI server connectivity, which could significantly enhance revenue in the networking segment [2][9]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from US$4,196 million in FY23 to US$4,715 million in FY24, representing a year-over-year growth of 12.4% [3][12]. - Net profit is expected to increase from US$132 million in FY23 to US$200 million in FY24, reflecting a growth rate of 51.5% [3][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 2.81 cents in FY23 to 3.73 cents in FY24 [3][12]. Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers identified for 2025 include AirPods, AI server connectors/cables, and the auto business, particularly through a new joint venture in the EV charger market [2][9]. - The company is expected to ramp up production in Vietnam and India for AirPods, with management anticipating six additional production lines in India by 2025 [2][9]. Valuation Metrics - The company is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.3x for FY24 and 10.8x for FY25, which is considered attractive given the expected EPS growth of 51% and 33% for FY24 and FY25, respectively [2][9][10]. - The report notes that the valuation remains appealing compared to the anticipated recovery in the AI server and smartphone markets [2][9].

26 Jun 2024 Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec) FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E Revenue (RMB mn) 33,197 31,681 36,545 40,524 43,473 YoY growth (%) (11.5) (4.6) 15.4 10.9 7.3 Net profit (RMB mn) 2,407.8 1,099.4 1,351.2 1,837.9 2,193.6 YoY growth (%) (51.8) (54.3) 22.9 36.0 19.4 EPS (Reported) (RMB) 2.20 1.01 1.24 1.68 2.01 Consensus EPS (RMB) 2.20 1.20 2.21 2.97 4.20 P/E (x) 20.1 43.9 35.7 26.3 22.0 P/B (x) 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 Yield (%) 2.2 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.0 ROE (%) 11.2 4.9 5.8 7.6 8.6 Net gearing (%) (22.6) (45.5) 34 ...

招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 港股市场回顾 恒指平收，恒生科技指数跌 0.65%。分板块看，猪肉概念、食品股、啤酒股 等消费股上涨，万洲国际（288 HK）涨 2.96%，统一企业中国（220 HK）涨 3.5%，康师傅控股（322 HK）涨 3.09%，百威亚太（1876 HK）涨 3.19%。 部分家电股、体育用品股、汽车经销商、教育股涨幅居前，海尔智家（6690 HK）涨 1.81%，JS 环球生活（1691 HK）涨 1.29%。内房股、物管股表现分 化，远洋集团（3377 HK）跌 3.61%，龙湖集团（960 HK）等跟跌。美的置 业（3990 HK）暴涨 69.87%，领涨板块；龙光集团（3380 HK）涨 5.63%。 消息面上，美的置业拟剥离房地产开发业务，每股派 5.9 港元或实物分派。 芯片概念股继续回调，中电华大科技（0085 HK）跌 6.72%，华虹半导体 （1347 HK）跌 5.09%，上海复旦（1385 HK）跌 4.96%，中芯国际（981 HK）跌 3.44%。医药股中，医美概念股、中医药概念、互联网医疗股等板块 下行，巨子生物（2367 HK）跌 5.4 ...

Kuaishou (1024 HK) Shelf-based ecommerce outperformed in 618 During the 618 promotion of 2024, Kuaishou emphasized more on good products at low price, with simpler approach and extended period. Pan shelf-based ecommerce performed well, with orders/paying users +65%/57% YoY. We estimate its GMV share from pan shelf-based ecommerce to be >25%, and 2Q24E ecommerce growth would be intact (forecasting GMV/other services revenue +25%/24% YoY). Despite mixed third party industrial data, we are positive on Kuaishou ...

医药行业估值吸引,看好医药新消费 年初至今,MSCI 中国医疗指数下跌 26.5%,跑输 MSCI 中国指数 33.7%。目前行 业指数的动态市盈率为 24.0 倍,低于 12 年历史均值。我们预计医疗设备更新的政 策即将落地,将有效刺激相关需求释放。国务院深化医药卫生体制改革 2024 年重 点工作任务中提到制定关于全链条支持创新药发展的指导性文件。我们认为,随着 支持政策落地、行业监管常态化进行,业绩复苏将带来行业估值修复。 持续看好医药新消费。巨子生物的销售持续表现亮眼,2024 年"618"期间, 可复美线上 GMV 同比增长超 60%,可丽金线上 GMV 同比增长超 100%。根 据魔镜统计,1-5 月在天猫淘宝、京东和抖音渠道合计 GMV 口径,可复美同比 增长 123%,可丽金同比增长 132%。此外,信达生物公布玛仕度肽(GLP1/GCGR)治疗肥胖的三期临床结果,治疗 48 周实现 14.84%(6mg)的体重 下降;同时显著降低了 LDL- C、血清尿酸和 ALT,有改善脂肪肝的潜力。我 们预计该品种将于 1H25 获批,成为首个国产双靶点 GLP-1 肥胖药物,有望快 速放量。 零售渠道 ...

巨子生物 (2367 HK) 618 收官,双品牌全渠道延续高增长 巨子生物公布"618"战报,2024 年"618"期间(5 月 15 日至 6 月 20 日),可复美 线上 GMV 同比增长超 60%,可丽金线上 GMV 同比增长超 100%。根据《天下网商》 联合天猫发布的品牌成交排行榜(5 月 20 日至 6 月 20 日),可复美在天猫快消品牌销 售榜及护肤品牌销售榜中分别名列第 13 和第 11,国货品牌第三;根据抖音电商官方榜 单,可复美在抖音 618 好物节美妆榜中排名第 9,国货品牌第三。 618 大促于 5 月拉开序幕,可复美和可丽金线上增长爆发。2024 年各大电商平台 纷纷取消预售,天猫和抖音的 618 大促提前至 5 月直接开启现货售卖。叠加 618 大 促开启以及错期影响,可复美和可丽金 1-5 月线上 GMV 增长强劲。根据魔镜数 据,在天猫淘宝美容护肤品类当中,可复美的 1-5 月累计 GMV排名 16,累计 GMV 增速在 TOP30 的品牌中排名第一。根据魔镜统计,可复美在天猫淘宝、京东和抖 音的 1-5 月 GMV 合计达到 15.8 亿元,同比增长 123%。得益于核心 ...