每日投资策略 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|----------------------------|----------------| | | | | | | | | | 公司点评 | 招银国际研究部 邮件： | research@cmbi.com.hk | | | | | 派拓网络（ PANW US ，首次覆盖 - 买入，目标价： 391.7 美元） - 网络安全巨 | | | | | | | 头迎接新一轮增长机会 | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | 升跌（ | % ） | | | 派拓网络（ PANW US ）是一家全球领先的网络安全提供商，帮 ...

Investment Rating - Initiate coverage with a BUY rating and a target price of US$391.7 per share, representing a 19.9% upside from the current price of US$326.81 [3][2]. Core Insights - Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for cybersecurity solutions, with a projected revenue CAGR of 16% from FY23 to FY26 and a non-GAAP net profit CAGR of 23% during the same period [2][10]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for PANW's key sectors—network security, cloud security, and Security Operation Center (SOC)—has grown from US$38 billion in 2018 to US$104 billion in 2023, with expectations to reach US$210 billion by 2028, driven by the adoption of Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) and cloud security [2][10][27]. - PANW's strong financial profile adheres to the "Rule of 50," indicating a balanced growth in revenue and profitability, which supports its valuation [2][14]. Cybersecurity Market Overview - The cybersecurity market is experiencing significant growth, with the TAM for PANW's sectors expected to expand at a CAGR of 15% from 2023 to 2028 [2][10]. - The demand for cybersecurity solutions is driven by an increasingly complex threat landscape, with cybercrimes costing the global economy US$8 trillion annually [28][27]. Company Positioning - PANW has been recognized as a leader in 23 product categories across network security, cloud security, and SOC, which enhances its competitive edge and market share [11][2]. - As of 2QFY24, 79% of Global 2000 customers have engaged with PANW on at least two platforms, indicating strong customer loyalty and product integration [11][2]. Platformization Strategy - The acceleration of PANW's Platformization strategy is expected to enhance market share gains, despite potential short-term impacts on billings and revenue growth [12][2]. - The strategy aims to improve customer total cost of ownership (TCO) and return on investment (ROI) by consolidating multiple cybersecurity solutions into a unified platform [27][12]. Growth Opportunities - PANW is poised to capitalize on the growing opportunities related to Generative AI, which could increase demand for its products and services while also allowing for potential price increases due to improved user experience and operational efficiency [13][2]. - The company is also focusing on international expansion and the adoption of next-generation security products to drive future revenue growth [12][2]. Financial Performance - PANW's revenue is projected to grow from US$6.9 billion in FY23 to US$10.8 billion by FY26, with a consistent year-over-year growth rate [7][2]. - The company has a strong financial profile, with a non-GAAP adjusted net profit expected to increase from US$1.4 billion in FY23 to US$2.7 billion by FY26 [7][2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price (TP) of HKD 14.54, which corresponds to a 20x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio based on FY25E estimates, aligning with the long-term average of comparable peers [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a 20% year-on-year decline in retail sales value (RSV) for Q1 FY25, with declines of 18% in mainland China and 28.8% in Hong Kong and Macau. Same-store sales growth (SSSG) decreased by 26.4% and 30.8% in these regions, respectively. The weak performance is attributed to sluggish consumer spending and increased gold price volatility, leading to a cautious consumer sentiment [1]. - The contribution of fixed-price products has significantly increased from 5.7% in Q1 FY24 to 15.8% in Q1 FY25, exceeding expectations. This improvement is driven by ongoing product portfolio enhancements and strong terminal feedback, particularly for the new "Roge" series. The report anticipates that the contribution from fixed-price products will remain high due to upcoming product launches [1]. - The company has optimized its channel strategy, closing 95 stores in Q1 FY25 (opening 89 and closing 194) to replace underperforming stores with more efficient ones, thereby enhancing profitability. Online sales contribution rose to 13.8% in Q1 FY25 from 10% in Q1 FY24, indicating a positive trend in online presence amid macroeconomic uncertainties [1]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, the company is projected to generate revenue of HKD 106,501 million, reflecting a 2% decline year-on-year. Net profit is expected to reach HKD 7,260 million, with a growth forecast of 12% for FY25E, followed by 9% and 8% in FY26E and FY27E, respectively [2][10]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to be 21.6% for FY25E, with a gradual increase to 22.4% by FY27E. The report also highlights a projected return on equity (ROE) of 8.4% for FY25E, improving to 9.9% by FY27E [2][11]. - The company's financial position shows a net cash status in FY23A, with a projected net debt-to-equity ratio of 0.2x in FY25E, indicating a strong balance sheet [2][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a BUY rating to Chow Tai Fook (CTF) with a target price (TP) of HK$ 14.54, representing a P/E ratio of 20x for FY25E, which aligns with the long-term average of comparable peers [2][4]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook reported a 20% year-over-year decline in total retail sales value (RSV) for 1QFY25, attributed to weak consumer spending and gold price volatility [2]. - The company anticipates flat revenue growth for FY25E, with forecasts of -2%, 5%, and 4% revenue growth for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively, while net profit is expected to grow by 12%, 9%, and 8% in the same periods [2][6]. - The contribution of fixed-price products increased significantly, rising from 5.7% to 15.8% in 1QFY25, which is expected to enhance gross profit margins [2][6]. - Chow Tai Fook is optimizing its channel strategy, closing a net of 95 stores while enhancing its online presence, which now accounts for 13.8% of sales in Mainland China [2][6]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, revenue is projected at HK$ 106,501 million, with a slight decline of 2% year-over-year, while net profit is expected to reach HK$ 7,260.5 million, reflecting a growth of 12% [3][11]. - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 21.6% for FY25E, with net profit margin at 6.8% [6][12]. - The company maintains a strong financial position with net cash status and a return on equity (ROE) projected to increase to 27.5% in FY25E [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for iQIYI, indicating potential for over 15% return over the next 12 months [3][10][18] Core Views - iQIYI is expected to face short-term headwinds in 2Q24, with total revenue forecasted to decline by 5% YoY to RMB7.4 billion, primarily due to underperformance of certain drama series and a decrease in variety shows [3] - Non-GAAP operating profit is projected to drop by 36% YoY to RMB503 million, despite stable content costs and operating expenses [3] - A recovery in total revenue and profit is anticipated in 2H24, driven by a strong content pipeline [3] - The target price is set at US$6.40 based on a 16x FY24E PE, down from a previous target of US$8.60 [3][10] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Membership revenue is expected to decline by 8% YoY to RMB4.5 billion in 2Q24, attributed to competition and underperforming content [3] - Advertising revenue is forecasted to decrease by 4% YoY to RMB1.4 billion in 2Q24, influenced by fewer variety shows [3] - For FY24E, total revenue is projected at RMB31.0 billion, with a slight decline of 2.6% YoY [4][9] Financial Metrics - Gross margin is expected to improve to 28.2% in FY24E, with non-GAAP operating margin projected at 10.4% [4][9] - Adjusted net profit for FY24E is forecasted at RMB2.8 billion, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.4% YoY [4][9] - The company is expected to maintain flattish total costs and operating expenses YoY in 2Q24E [3] Market Position - iQIYI's viewership share among the top 20 drama series has significantly declined from 39% in 1H23 to 18% in 1H24, indicating increased competition [3] - The company remains cautious on content investment and operating expenses, which may impact short-term margins [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for BYDE with a target price of HK$45.28, implying a potential upside of 47.3% from the current price of HK$30.75 [2][3][11] Core Insights - BYDE is expected to report solid growth in 1H24, with estimated revenue and net profit growth of 32% and 26% respectively, driven by iPad share gains, Android recovery, and stable NEV components sales [2][11] - The company has revised its FY24-26 EPS estimates down by 6% primarily due to a weaker gross profit margin (GPM) [2][11] - The stock is currently trading at attractive multiples of 12.7x and 9.3x FY24 and FY25 estimated P/E ratios [2][11] Summary by Sections Consumer Electronics - Revenue from smartphone OEM/component business is projected to increase by 39% in 1H24 and 36% in 2H24, driven by iPad share gains and the iPhone cycle [2] - iPad revenue is expected to grow by 53% in 1H24 and 28% in 2H24, with market share projected to reach 50% in FY24 [2][6] - GPM for assembly is expected to improve slightly to 2.5% in 1H24 and 2.6% in 2H24, while component GPM is projected at 14.3% and 14.7% for the same periods [2] Automotive - Automotive revenue is expected to grow by 38% YoY in FY24, driven by strong Parentco shipments and new high-end product ramp-up [2][6] - The ASP for automotive products is anticipated to grow by 20% YoY, contributing to overall revenue growth [2] New Intelligent Products - AI server business is expected to generate RMB1 billion in revenue in FY24, offsetting weaknesses in the household energy storage segment [2] - The report expresses optimism about the AI server business delivering rapid growth in FY25-26 due to next-gen products in development with Nvidia [2] Earnings Summary - For FY24, revenue is estimated at RMB171.96 billion, with a YoY growth of 32.3% [3][6] - Net profit for FY24 is projected at RMB5.06 billion, reflecting a 25.3% YoY growth [3][6] - EPS for FY24 is estimated at RMB2.25, which is 1-9% above consensus estimates [2][6] Valuation - The new target price of HK$45.28 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, reflecting BYDE's diversified business model [11] - The report assigns a target P/E of 15x for assembly and component businesses, and 20x for new intelligent and NEV segments, indicating their growth potential [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 45.28, reflecting an attractive valuation based on a P/E ratio of 18.3 times FY24E earnings [2][19][26]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see revenue and net profit growth of 32% and 26% respectively in 1H24, driven by increased iPad market share, recovery in Android, and stable sales in new energy vehicle (NEV) components [2][3]. - The report anticipates a positive outlook for the iPad/iPhone upgrade cycle and high-end Android orders, which will contribute to revenue growth in 2H24E and FY25E [2][4]. - Adjustments to FY24-26E earnings per share have been made, with a reduction of 6% primarily due to weakening gross profit margins (GPM) [2][5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - FY23 revenue is reported at RMB 129,957 million, with a projected increase to RMB 171,957 million in FY24E, representing a 32% year-over-year growth [10][23]. - Net profit is expected to rise from RMB 4,041 million in FY23 to RMB 5,063 million in FY24E, indicating a 25% increase [10][23]. - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to stabilize around 32.3% for FY24E [10]. Segment Performance - The smartphone OEM/components business is estimated to grow by 39% in 1H24 and 36% in 2H24, supported by the iPad share increase and iPhone cycle [3]. - Automotive revenue is expected to grow by 38% in FY24E, driven by increased shipments and average selling price (ASP) growth [4]. - The AI server business is projected to contribute RMB 1 billion in FY24E, offsetting weaknesses in the home energy storage segment [5]. Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio is noted at 12.7x for FY24E and 9.3x for FY25E, suggesting an attractive valuation compared to peers [2][19]. - The report utilizes a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach, assigning different target P/E ratios to various business segments based on their growth profiles and visibility [19][22].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, iQIYI, with a target price of $6.40, reflecting a potential upside of 104.5% from the current price of $3.13 [2][8]. Core Insights - iQIYI is expected to face short-term headwinds in Q2 2024, with total revenue projected to decline by 5% year-over-year to RMB 7.4 billion due to underperformance of certain shows and a decrease in the number of variety shows [2]. - Non-GAAP operating profit is anticipated to drop by 36% year-over-year to RMB 503 million, despite content costs and operating expenses remaining stable [2]. - The company is expected to gradually recover in the second half of 2024, driven by a strong pipeline of quality content [2]. - Membership revenue is projected to decline by 8% year-over-year to RMB 4.5 billion in Q2 2024, primarily due to the underperformance of certain shows and loss of market share to competitors [2]. - Advertising revenue is expected to decrease by 4% year-over-year to RMB 1.4 billion in Q2 2024, influenced by a reduction in variety shows compared to the previous year [2]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, total revenue is projected at RMB 31.0 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of -2.6% [5][6]. - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted at RMB 2.8 billion for FY24E, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.4% year-over-year [5][6]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 28.2% in FY24E, while the non-GAAP operating profit margin is projected to be 10.4% [6][7]. Valuation - The target price of $6.40 is based on a 16x PE multiple for FY24E, which is lower than the industry average of 25x due to intense competition in the Chinese video streaming sector [8][10].

2024 年 7 月 26 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 装备制造 3,000 亿元资金支持设备更新和消费品以旧换新 国家发改委、财政部昨天（7 月 25 日）发布关于加大对设备更新和消费品以旧 换新支持措施的通知（《关于加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若 干措施》）。《通知》提出统筹约 3,000 亿元人民币超长期特别国债资金以支 持设备更新和以旧换新。设备更新范围包括工业、环境基础设施、交通设备、 物流、教育、文旅和医疗，并延伸至能源、电力和老旧电梯。其中特别提及增 加对国三货车和农业机械的补贴。到 2024 年底没用完的已下达资金将收回中 央，因此我们认为替换周期会在今年下半年加快。在我们的覆盖个股当中，潍 柴动力（2338 HK，买入，目标价：22 港元 / 000338 CH，买入，目标价：人 民币 20.4 元）、中国重汽（3808 HK，买入，目标价：22.5 港元）和中联重科 （1157 HK，买入，目标价：7.50 港元 / 000157 CH，买入，目标价：人民币 11.6 元）将是主要受益者。 老旧船舶报废更新：《通知》鼓励加快高排放船舶更新换代，推动新能源 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the healthcare industry, particularly in the context of the DRG/DIP payment reform, which is expected to enhance cash flow for commercial circulation enterprises and support the clinical use of innovative drugs [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The National Healthcare Security Administration has implemented the DRG/DIP 2.0 version, which includes adjustments to groupings that better reflect clinical realities, with a total of 409 core groups and 634 detailed groups [1]. - The report highlights that over 90% of regions in the country have adopted DRG/DIP payment methods, with 26 provinces achieving full coverage within their jurisdictions [1]. - The new policy allows for exceptions in cases of long hospital stays, high medical costs, and the use of innovative drugs and technologies, which will create a more favorable payment environment for innovative drug costs [2]. - The overall settlement cycle for medical insurance funds is expected to shorten, benefiting commercial circulation and pharmaceutical manufacturing companies by accelerating payment collection [1][3]. Summary by Sections - **DRG/DIP Payment Reform**: The 2.0 version introduces 33 new core groups and 6 new detailed groups, with a focus on high-resource consumption areas. The core disease groups have been reduced from 11,553 to 9,520 [1]. - **Implementation Timeline**: By the end of 2024, all regions that have not yet adopted DRG/DIP payment methods are required to implement the 2.0 version, while existing regions must prepare for the transition by December 31, 2024 [1]. - **Impact on Innovative Drugs**: The report emphasizes that the healthcare fund will maintain a supportive payment environment for innovative drugs, allowing for project-based payments or weighted additions during the initial application phase [2].