CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 Proya 化妆品 (603605 CH) 令人印象深刻的 618 , 彩妆品牌首次亮相 TOP 1 ; 保 持购买 Proya 在 618 促销活动中取得了令人印象深刻的成绩,GMV 在天猫 / 抖音化妆品行业排名 第一 / 第二,受到有效的英雄产品策略以及可能更多折扣的提振。天猫 / 抖音的 GMV 同比 增长达到 + 70% / + 110%,基本超过平台行业总量和国际同行。随着全行业回报率的提高 ,收入水平的增长可能会更低。Proya 化妆品 / 护发品牌在天猫的排名首次攀升至前 10 位 ,表明新品牌开发进展顺利。我们将 2024E / 25E 收益预期提高了约 20%,以反映 618 年 的成功和稳定的第四季度 / 第一季度收益。维持买入,TP 修正为 135.57 元,反映 2024E 市盈率的 35 倍。 令人印象深刻的 618 : 在天猫保留宝座 , 在抖音排名第二。根据第三方统计的数据, 在 618 购物节期间,Proya 的 GMV 在天猫保持冠军地位,在化妆品领域排名第二 ( 仅次于 Kas ),超过所有国际同行 ( 图 1 ) 。同比 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$137.8, implying an upside of 83.7% from the current price of HK$75.00 [2][4]. Core Insights - Prudential Plc. announced a US$2 billion share buyback plan to be completed by mid-2026, alongside a projected annual dividend growth of 7%-9% for FY24E [2]. - The first tranche of US$700 million buyback will occur from June 24, 2024, to December 27, 2024, with an estimated reduction of approximately 78 million ordinary shares in FY24E [2]. - The company’s free surplus ratio remains strong at over 200%, with a free surplus of US$8.5 billion in 2023, indicating robust capital management [2][4]. - The buyback is expected to enhance liquidity for the Hong Kong-listed shares, which currently have a low floating share percentage of 6.73% [2]. - The insurer aims for a double-digit CAGR of gross operating free surplus generation, targeting over US$4.4 billion by 2027 [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Net profit is projected to increase from US$1.712 billion in FY23A to US$2.149 billion in FY24E, with operating EPS expected to rise from US$0.85 in FY23A to US$0.95 in FY24E [4][12]. - The Group's embedded value per share is forecasted to grow from US$16.4 in FY23A to US$18.4 in FY24E [4][12]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 9.8% in FY23A to 11.5% in FY24E [4][12]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a P/EV of 0.52x for FY24E, with a target P/EV of 0.95x [2][4]. - The projected dividend yield for FY24E is 2.3%, increasing to 2.5% in FY25E [4][12]. - The company’s net business profit (NBP) is anticipated to reach US$4.9-5.0 billion by FY27E, reflecting an 18% CAGR [2][4].

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 18,073, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 6.02%[17] - The Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 2.89% year-to-date, closing at 3,655[17] - The S&P 500 Index increased by 14.66% year-to-date, closing at 5,469[17] Group 2: Company Insights - US internet and software companies showed mixed revenue growth in Q1 2024, with advertising and cloud services accelerating, while SaaS revenue slightly declined[3] - Nvidia's market capitalization surpassed $3.34 trillion, making it the most valuable company globally, despite a recent stock price pullback[16] - Sunyu Optical Technology raised its global smartphone shipment forecast by 1.7% to 1.17 billion units, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% expected[40] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Microsoft (MSFT US), Amazon (AMZN US), and ServiceNow (NOW US) due to their favorable positions in AI and profit margin expansion[3] - The target price for Sunyu Optical Technology is set at HKD 47.31, based on a valuation of 36x FY24E earnings[19] - Hongteng Precision is expected to benefit from strong growth in AI servers and iPhone sales, maintaining a buy rating with an attractive valuation of 14.3x FY24E earnings[32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Haidilao with a target price of HK$21.52, indicating a potential upside of 46.6% from the current price of HK$14.68 [5][7]. Core Views - The management change at Haidilao, with Yang Lijuan resigning as CEO and Gou Yiqun taking over, is viewed as neutral for the company's operations, which continue to improve [2][3]. - Haidilao's financial performance has exceeded expectations, with significant improvements in table turnover rates and successful completion of operational programs [3]. - The company is confident in achieving its FY24E target of single-digit percentage growth in new store openings, despite a slow expansion pace in the near term [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 41,453 million in FY23A to RMB 47,018 million in FY24E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.4% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 4,495.4 million in FY23A to RMB 4,996.6 million in FY24E, with a diluted EPS of RMB 0.89 for FY24E [4][8]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 16.9x in FY23A to 15.3x in FY24E, indicating an attractive valuation for long-term investors [4][9]. Operational Insights - Haidilao has successfully reopened 50 to 100 previously closed stores, contributing to a remarkable table turnover rate of approximately 4.3 times in the first five months of 2024 [3]. - The introduction of new products and enhanced customer engagement strategies have positively impacted the brand's market presence and customer loyalty [3]. - The potential for new store openings is bolstered by the upcoming launch of franchising stores and the success of campus stores [3]. Market Position - Haidilao's market capitalization stands at HK$81,826.3 million, with significant shareholding by Mr. Zhang Yong (60.4%) and Mr. Shi Sean (9.4%) [4]. - The stock has shown a relative performance of -20.6% over the past month, indicating a potential buying opportunity for investors [4][5].

FIT Hon Teng ( 6088 香港 ) CMBI Corp Day 外卖 : FY24 / 25E 中 AI 服务器 , AI PC / 电话 和 AirPods 的多个增长动力 我们于 6 月 25 日在 CMBI 技术公司日主持了 FIT Ho Teg ( FIT ) 。在 6 月初 Comptex 和 WWDC 后上涨 50 % 之后,投资者对 1 ) 2025 年下半年 AI 服务器上涨,2 ) 越南 / 印度 AirPods 增加,3 ) 新的 EV 合资企业和机会,以及 4 ) AI PC / 电话周期表示强烈兴趣。管 理。在智能手机 / 网络领域,2Q24 版本 / GPM 指导有望实现上行潜力。总体而言,我们对 FIT 在 FY24 / 25E 的多个增长动力 ( AI 服务器连接器,AirPods,EV 业务 ) 持积极态度, 并预计 AI 服务器内容价值,一般服务器恢复和 AI PC / 智能手机的上升周期将进一步上升。 在审查 TP 的情况下保持买入。 | | | | | | | | | | |------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 47.31, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.9 times FY25E earnings [8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a high-end upgrade cycle driven by AI smartphones, ADAS mixed lenses, and AR Glass opportunities, indicating a positive outlook for growth [2][8]. - The management has raised global and China smartphone shipment forecasts for 2024 by 1.7% and 1.1%, respectively, suggesting a recovery in the smartphone market [2]. - The automotive segment is projected to maintain a gross profit margin (GPM) of over 40%, driven by growth in automotive modules [2]. - The XR business is anticipated to see diffraction waveguides become mainstream, positioning AR Glass as the next computing platform [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to increase from RMB 31,681 million in FY23A to RMB 36,545 million in FY24E, representing a year-over-year growth of 15.4% [6]. - Net profit is expected to recover from RMB 1,099.4 million in FY23A to RMB 1,351.2 million in FY24E, with a year-over-year growth of 22.9% [6]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 1.01 in FY23A to RMB 1.24 in FY24E [6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 43.9x in FY23A to 35.7x in FY24E [6]. Market Position and Valuation - The company holds a leading position in the camera module (CCM) market in China, with a target P/E of 18x reflecting its advanced technology capabilities [8]. - The automotive lens business is assigned a P/E of 35x due to its high profitability and growth potential, with a CAGR of 25% from FY20 to FY23E [8]. - The smartphone lens segment is valued at a P/E of 25x, indicating confidence in its growth trajectory amid ongoing upgrades [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for FIT Hon Teng with the target price currently under review [2][9][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from multiple growth drivers in FY24/25, including AI server connectors, AirPods production ramp-up, and new opportunities in the electric vehicle (EV) sector [2][9]. - Management has indicated that revenue and gross profit margin (GPM) guidance for Q2 2024 is on track, with potential upside in the smartphone and networking segments [2][9]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the iPhone replacement cycle and potential order wins in AI server connectivity, which could significantly enhance revenue in the networking segment [2][9]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from US$4,196 million in FY23 to US$4,715 million in FY24, representing a year-over-year growth of 12.4% [3][12]. - Net profit is expected to increase from US$132 million in FY23 to US$200 million in FY24, reflecting a growth rate of 51.5% [3][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 2.81 cents in FY23 to 3.73 cents in FY24 [3][12]. Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers identified for 2025 include AirPods, AI server connectors/cables, and the auto business, particularly through a new joint venture in the EV charger market [2][9]. - The company is expected to ramp up production in Vietnam and India for AirPods, with management anticipating six additional production lines in India by 2025 [2][9]. Valuation Metrics - The company is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.3x for FY24 and 10.8x for FY25, which is considered attractive given the expected EPS growth of 51% and 33% for FY24 and FY25, respectively [2][9][10]. - The report notes that the valuation remains appealing compared to the anticipated recovery in the AI server and smartphone markets [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a HOLD rating for Sunny Optical with a target price of HK$47.31, implying a potential downside of 0.5% from the current price of HK$47.55 [3][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights positive expectations for Sunny Optical driven by high-end upgrades in the smartphone market, advancements in AI phone technology, and growth in automotive and XR (extended reality) segments [2][3]. - Management has raised the global and China smartphone shipment forecasts for 2024, indicating a recovery in the smartphone market [2]. - The automotive segment is expected to maintain a gross profit margin (GPM) of over 40% in 2024, with growth in auto modules contributing to profitability [2]. - The XR business is positioned to capitalize on the emerging AR glass market, which is anticipated to become the next computing platform [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 31,681 million in FY23A to RMB 36,545 million in FY24E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.4% [11][12]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1,099.4 million in FY23A to RMB 1,351.2 million in FY24E, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.9% [11][12]. - The report indicates a recovery in gross profit margin from 14.5% in FY23A to 14.1% in FY24E, with further improvements expected in subsequent years [12][20]. Segment Performance - In the smartphone segment, management anticipates an ASP (average selling price) and GPM recovery in 2024 due to high-end specification upgrades and improved product mix [2]. - The automotive segment is projected to see stable GPM at approximately 40% in 2024, with a focus on high-margin auto modules [2]. - The XR segment is expected to see significant investment in technologies such as diffractive waveguides, positioning Sunny Optical favorably in the AR/VR market [2].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed flat at 18,028, with a year-to-date increase of 5.75%[19] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 0.65%, with a year-to-date decline of 2.31%[19] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks such as pork, food, and beer saw gains, with WH Group (288 HK) up 2.96% and Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) up 3.19%[1] - Home appliance and sports goods stocks also performed well, with Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) rising 1.81%[1] - Real estate stocks showed mixed results, with China Evergrande (3333 HK) down 3.61% while Midea Real Estate (3990 HK) surged by 69.87%[1] Notable Stock Movements - Semiconductor stocks continued to decline, with China Electric Power (0085 HK) down 6.72% and SMIC (981 HK) down 3.44%[1] - Pharmaceutical stocks, including medical beauty and traditional Chinese medicine, faced downward pressure, with Giant Biogene (2367 HK) down 5.45%[1] Investment Ratings - Ideal Auto (LI US) rated "Buy" with a target price of 26.00, indicating a potential upside of 45%[4] - Geely Auto (175 HK) rated "Buy" with a target price of 14.00, suggesting a 60% upside[4] - Midea Real Estate (3990 HK) rated "Buy" with a target price of 27.60, reflecting a significant upside potential[4] Capital Flow - Northbound trading saw a net inflow of 2.49 billion RMB from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and 0.99 billion RMB from the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Kuaishou with an unchanged target price (TP) of HK$97 [2][4]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's shelf-based ecommerce performed strongly during the 618 promotion, with orders and paying users increasing by 65% and 57% year-on-year (YoY) respectively [2]. - The company is expected to achieve ecommerce growth of 25% YoY in GMV and 24% YoY in other services revenue for Q2 2024 [2]. - Kuaishou's self-developed video generation model, "Kling," was launched, showcasing advancements in AI technology [2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for FY22 was RMB 94,183 million, with a YoY growth of 16.2%, and is projected to reach RMB 125,544 million in FY24E, reflecting a growth of 10.6% [3][7]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to improve significantly from RMB 10,271 million in FY23A to RMB 17,247 million in FY24E, marking a growth of 67.9% [3][8]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to increase from RMB 2.31 in FY23A to RMB 3.74 in FY24E, indicating a growth of 61.8% [3][8]. Market Position and Growth - Kuaishou's GMV share from pan shelf-based ecommerce is estimated to exceed 25%, indicating a strong market position [2]. - Active merchants grew by 26% YoY, with small and medium enterprises (SMEs) increasing by 28% YoY during the 618 promotion [2]. - The consumer electronics and furniture categories saw GMV surges of over 83% YoY, with brand pan shelf-based GMV increasing by over 177% YoY [2].