中美贸易关税专家交流-加关税对消费品出海影响几何 20241113 摘要 • 关税对中美贸易的影响显著，假设出口弹性为 2%，中国对美出口可能会 下降 80%，从而导致 GDP 下降 2%。美国经济体量更大，虽然绝对值损失严 重，但幅度较小。 • 莱特希泽主张与中国脱钩，并认为关税不仅是谈判工具，更是实现贸易平 衡的手段。他希望通过抹平中美之间约 3,000 亿美元的贸易差，使得双方 出口额相等。如果美国对华关税加到 40-45%，这一目标可能实现，而 60% 的关税则会使中国对美出口降至不到 1,000 亿美元。 • 取消最惠国待遇和加征关税有三种主要方法：一是取消最惠国待遇，需要 立法程序，过程较慢；二是基于 2018 年 301 调查结果加征关税，可以迅 速实施；三是依据 1977 年国际应急经济权利法案宣布紧急状态，对中国 加征任务性关税。这些方法最终都能快速落地并产生类似效果。 • 如果取消最惠国待遇，中国对美出口总额为 4,500 亿美元，其中前 19 类 商品占 4,100 亿。以手机为例，目前其出口美国的税率为 0，如果取消最 惠国待遇，税率将升至 35%。医药产品、化学品、矿物等行业也会受到 ...

Summary of Low Altitude Economy in Scenic Area Operations Industry Overview - The low altitude economy is rapidly developing within the scenic area operations, with various applications including cargo transportation, inspections, drone performances, and low-altitude sightseeing projects [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Cargo Transportation - Drones can efficiently transport goods, overcoming geographical limitations. For instance, Huangshan Scenic Area has been using DJI drones for regular transportation since May 2023, capable of delivering 15 to 20 tons of goods daily during peak tourist seasons, and maintaining over 10 tons even in off-peak seasons [2]. Inspection Applications - Drones are significantly advantageous for inspections, such as safety hazard checks and forest fire prevention. For example, Lijiang Yulong Snow Mountain and Beijing Qingxiling Scenic Area have been using DJI drones since 2020 for inspections, which can quickly identify high-temperature anomalies and alert for fire risks, enhancing safety measures [3][4]. Drone Performance Projects - Drone performances have become a key attraction for tourists in many scenic areas. Notable examples include regular summer night activities at Zhongqing Travel's Gubei Water Town and nighttime shows at 5A-rated scenic areas like Nanfang Taohuayuan, which enhance visitor entertainment and contribute positively to the scenic area's reputation [5]. Development of Low-Altitude Sightseeing Projects - The development of low-altitude sightseeing projects has gained momentum due to policy support and technological advancements. Initiatives began in the 1990s but were limited by technology. Recent policies, including the 2014 State Council's encouragement of low-altitude flights and subsequent plans, have led to significant progress. For instance, Sanya's Daxiaodongtian has been conducting passenger flights with unmanned aerial vehicles since 2021, and a collaboration between Xiyu Tourism and EHang Intelligent resulted in a successful flight demonstration in January this year [6]. Growth of the Drone Market - The drone market in China has seen rapid growth, with the number of registered drones reaching 68.608 million by mid-2024, marking a 48% increase from the end of the previous year. This growth provides ample supply for various applications, including the low altitude economy in tourism [7]. Additional Important Insights - The integration of drone technology in scenic areas not only improves operational efficiency but also enhances visitor experiences, creating a competitive edge for these locations in the tourism market [1][5].

Summary of the Conference Call for Tonghuashun Company Overview - The conference call focuses on Tonghuashun, a leading financial services platform in China, particularly in the stock trading and investment sector [3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Market Position and Performance - Tonghuashun benefits from a strong beta effect due to increased market trading volume during the current bull market, alongside unique alpha attributes [3]. - The company's revenue and profit elasticity are highly correlated with market trading volume, especially during bull markets, where new account openings significantly boost advertising revenue [3][4]. - Tonghuashun holds approximately 30%-40% market share among retail investors, making its traffic highly valuable to brokers and fund companies during active market periods [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Trends - In Q3 2024, Tonghuashun's revenue grew nearly 5% year-over-year, driven by market conditions and increased account openings [4]. - The company's value-added telecom services are significantly correlated with trading volume, showing resilience even in poor market conditions [5]. Advertising and Promotion Business - The advertising and promotion business, primarily sourced from brokers, is highly correlated with trading volume and reflects a strong beta effect [6]. - Tonghuashun collaborates with 88 major brokers, indicating a robust advertising and promotion network that may expand its influence in the future [6]. Future Revenue Growth Expectations - The company anticipates optimistic revenue growth due to an average daily trading volume exceeding 200 million, which will drive overall revenue growth [7]. - Although R&D expenses have slightly increased, they remain controlled, while sales expenses are expected to decrease as market conditions improve [7]. Impact of ETF Growth - The growth of ETFs positively impacts Tonghuashun through increased trading activity, leading to higher commission income and expanded ETF distribution business [8]. - As of October, the ETF market size surpassed actively managed equity funds, with a year-on-year growth rate approaching 100% [8]. - Tonghuashun has access to 30 million high-quality active retail investors, enhancing its monetization capabilities through high-frequency trading [8]. Advantages in ETF Business - Tonghuashun's advantages in the ETF sector include a large user base and diverse monetization channels, effectively converting retail investor traffic into ETF trading volume [9]. - The company partners with the most brokers and offers a seamless trading experience for both stocks and ETFs, enhancing user convenience [9]. - The potential market size for ETF trading could reach the hundred billion level, positioning Tonghuashun to benefit significantly from ETF growth [9]. AI Functionality Development - Tonghuashun's AI product "Wencai" has shown remarkable success, significantly improving user experience and conversion rates, with VIP membership growth exceeding tenfold since October [10]. - The integration of "Wencai" with iPhone enhances data acquisition and processing capabilities, contributing to market share growth [10]. Future Revenue Growth Logic - Future revenue growth for Tonghuashun is driven by its strong correlation with A-share trading volume, enhanced bargaining power during bull markets, and the growth of the ETF market [11]. - The competitive landscape in public funds will provide more advertising opportunities for Tonghuashun, leveraging its traffic attributes [11]. - The development of AI functionalities will create new revenue streams by improving user experience and conversion rates [11]. ETF Market Influence - The ETF market positively influences Tonghuashun, as trading activity in ETFs is generally higher than in stocks, leading to substantial overall revenue despite lower fees [12]. - The competitive environment in public funds increases demand for advertising on third-party platforms, providing additional monetization opportunities for Tonghuashun [12]. App Performance - As of September, Tonghuashun's free app ranked seventh in financial applications, while its paid app ranked first overall and in wealth management categories, indicating strong market performance [13]. - The expected growth in value-added telecom services during bullish market conditions suggests continued leadership and substantial revenue potential for Tonghuashun [13].

出海加速及内需改善背景下，如何看待中国可选消费当前的机会 20241113 摘要 • 中国零售行业出海机遇显著，尤其在潮玩领域表现突出。潮玩作为情绪消 费的一部分，在经济低迷时期表现优于整体消费市场。以日本为例，动漫 相关产业在过去 30 年间增长迅速，商品零售增长率也达到了 30%至 40%。 • 情绪消费本质上是将玩具类产品销售给成年人，这是一种新的市场需求。 日本和欧洲的玩具市场数据表明，成人化玩具占比不断上升，消费者更愿 意将时间和金钱花费在情绪消费类别上。 • 潮流性玩具和 IP 品牌具有较强的周期性，持续火热时间往往超过两年。 带有 IP 属性的产品持续性更高，例如三丽鸥的 Hello Kitty，其销售周 期明显，上行周期通常超过四年。 • 中国零售行业未来的发展方向包括加强出海战略以及关注情绪消费领域。 通过创新与数字化传播方式提升品牌价值，并积极拓展海外市场，将是推 动中国零售行业发展的重要路径。 • IP 企业在上行周期中的销售规模增长是确定性的，且弹性非常大。以三 丽鸥和惊喜娃娃（LOL Surprise）为例，其股价和销售额在上行周期中都 实现了大幅增长。 • 类似于网红 IP 产品在 ...

追光系列：高低切换，核心企业仍强 20241113 摘要 • 通信行业近期表现出色，尤其是三大运营商和光模块公司，主要原因是市 场风格从高风险偏好向低估值股票切换。 • 运营商板块具有长期投资价值，其高分红和稳定的盈利能力使其成为稀缺 的红利资产。AI 和 6G 的发展将为运营商带来新的机遇。 • 光模块公司市场前景乐观，一线公司如旭创、兴盛、天福等表现优异。2025 年市场需求预计将达到 2000 万只以上，其中 400 万只为 4 板机。 • 未来几个月通信行业整体趋势仍然积极，一线光模块公司业绩突出，明年 及后年的需求预测乐观，新 AI 应用及模型更新发布将成为重要催化剂。 • 美国大选和地缘政治因素对头部公司影响微乎其微，通信行业早已全球化， 并采取了成熟措施以淡化这些影响。 • 新技术如 CPU 和 OIO 等将为头部公司带来巨大机会，OIO 技术将扩展光在 GPU 与 CPU 之间服务器内场景的应用，使得整个行业蛋糕做大。 Q&A 最近通信行业的市场表现如何，尤其是三大运营商和光模块公司？ 近期通信行业的市场表现显著，尤其是三大运营商和光模块公司。中国联通一度 涨停，中国电信和中国移动也有不错的涨 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Beiqi Blue Valley Company Overview - The conference call discusses Beiqi Blue Valley, focusing on its electric vehicle model, the Xiang GS9, and its brand, Arcfox. Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance and Market Challenges - The sales of the Xiang GS9 pure electric version fell short of expectations due to conservative target customer demographics and concerns over battery range anxiety. The introduction of the range-extended version is anticipated to boost overall sales [2][3] - The Xiang GS9 range-extended version will feature an additional engine, enhancing user experience, although there will be no significant changes in configuration [2][4] - The overall gross margin for the Xiang GS9 is not negative, but the company remains in a loss position due to amortization of factory equipment and R&D investments [2][5] Future Product Plans - Beiqi Blue Valley plans to launch large 6-seater and 7-seater SUVs, as well as an MPV, with a new model already in the project phase expected to be launched by the end of next year or early the following year [2][6] - The Xiang GS9 range-extended version is expected to be launched in the first half of next year, with Huawei continuing to invest resources to enhance brand visibility and product sales [2][6] Brand Development and Strategy - The Arcfox brand has seen sales growth attributed to brand promotion, channel expansion, product diversity, and a clearer strategic direction from the new management team [2][12] - The company employs a dual strategy to strengthen the Arcfox brand while deepening collaboration with Huawei through the "Smart Selection" model [2][12] Competitive Landscape - The monthly sales of BMW's 5 Series electric vehicles remain stable, with a sales gap not significantly impacting the BBA market. The sales of the Xiang GS9 are expected to increase with the launch of the range-extended version [2][7] - The company is aware of the competitive pressure from other brands and is taking measures to enhance the sales of the Xiang S9, including higher commissions for sales personnel [2][11] Financial Outlook - The Arcfox brand is currently not profitable, and achieving breakeven will depend on reaching a sales volume of approximately 300,000 units across all three brands [2][20][39] - The company is focusing on volume sales rather than immediate profitability due to the current market conditions and competition [2][38] Market Expansion and Future Goals - Beiqi Blue Valley has begun its overseas business, with plans to export models like the Alpha S and Alpha P, targeting a significant increase in export volume by 2025 [2][31] - The company aims to enhance its market coverage by expanding its dealership network, with a target of 400 stores by next year [2][17] Management Changes and Impact - The new management team has implemented practical strategies that have led to improved sales performance, emphasizing execution and market promotion [2][22] Collaboration with Huawei - The partnership with Huawei is crucial for the development of the Xiang series, with ongoing efforts to improve product quality and sales strategies [2][18][24] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The company is actively exploring new promotional strategies and enhancing product quality to meet customer expectations, particularly for the upcoming range-extended models [2][26][27] - The competitive landscape is expected to remain challenging, with potential price wars impacting revenue, but the company is prepared to manage these pressures while focusing on volume [2][38]

Key Points Industry and Company Overview - **Company**: Skarlo Education - **Industry**: Education, specifically after-school tutoring and training - **Location**: Focus on Shenzhen and Guangdong Province, with plans to expand to Guangzhou Growth and Expansion - **Shenzhen Expansion**: Over 145 campuses in Shenzhen, with plans to open 10 more during the winter break, reaching 150-160 by the end of the year, a 40% increase. - **Guangzhou Expansion**: Re-entry into the Guangzhou market with ongoing campus selection and headquarters renovation. Expected to start operations by the end of the year or early next year. - **Course Performance**: High school courses saw a 50% increase in revenue, and configuration growth of over 30%. Winter courses are prepared and a large promotional event was held on November 11th. Business Strategy - **New Business Lines**: Plans to add international and study abroad programs, with one international campus in Futian and plans to open 1-2 more in Nanchang and Futian. - **Profitability**: Expected to maintain a 20% profit margin for the full year of 2024, with a slight decrease in the second half due to costs associated with re-entering the Guangzhou market and opening new campuses. Market and Competition - **Market Demand**: Strong demand for after-school tutoring and training, with a focus on middle and low-income families. - **Competition**: Industry remains fragmented, with both small independent institutions and large chains operating. Skarlo Education has a competitive advantage as a regulated chain institution. Policy and Regulations - **Policy Stability**: Stable policies in Guangdong Province, with higher barriers to entry for non-disciplinary training institutions. - **Beijing Policy**: Positive signal for the industry's healthy development, with detailed guidelines for the application of licenses and the division of responsibilities between city and district education bureaus. Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: Revenue growth of about 2 percentage points compared to last year, with an increase of 5 percentage points announced, but slightly lower due to discounts for early enrollment or multiple subject enrollment. - **Profitability**: Profit margin in the first half of the year was stable compared to the same period last year, but slightly lower in the second half due to increased costs associated with re-entering the Guangzhou market and opening new campuses. Future Outlook - **Guangzhou Market**: Expected to start operations in January 2025, with a focus on full-grade, full-subject experience classes and high school B classes. Plans to expand the Guangzhou market over one year and contribute to overall business growth from 2026 onwards. - **Long-term Growth**: Focus on expanding the Guangzhou market, improving product and teaching quality, and consolidating and expanding the Greater Bay Area market.

探寻电价系列：电改进程加速，关注煤电转向综合收益 20241113 摘要 • 火电电价机制经历了从政府垄断定价到市场化改革的演变，目前实行基准 价格加上下浮动机制，上下浮动范围为 20%。 • 火电竞争格局从单纯依赖电量和价格收入，转向多元化模式，包括容量价 值、辅助服务价值等，以适应新能源占比提升带来的挑战。 • 煤炭价格波动对火电脱钩机制影响显著，2019 年取消了煤-联动机制，引 入基准加上下浮动的市场化机制，使得对煤炭价格反应更及时迅速。 • 中长期协议与现货市场在未来发展中将发挥重要作用，中长期协议稳定供 需，现货市场发现价格，两者相辅相成。 • 火电竞争力将受到容量价值和辅助服务价值的提升，以及全社会用电量增 长的支撑，预计到 2026 年，多数地区容量回收比例将提升至 50%以上。 • 火电企业盈利模式将更加多元化，通过容量定价比例的提升，以及辅助服 务收入的增加，实现持续盈利。 • 火电竞争力受到市场化交易和政策推动影响，未来龙头企业将充分受益， 其分红能力和红利资产属性将不断增强。 Q&A 火电电价的发展历程和机制是怎样的？ 火电电价的发展历程可以分为几个重要阶段。1985 年之前，政府完全 ...

水泥供给侧的过去、当下和未来 20241113 摘要 • 水泥行业在 2000 年至 2015 年间完成了工艺升级，新开发产能达到 98%以 上，基本上没有落后产能。自 2015 年起，水泥行业的产能主要分为大小 县之分，没有先进和落后之分。在西南、西北等区域，小产能仍有一定优 势。 • 水泥行业与钢铁行业在供给侧改革方面存在显著差异。钢铁行业通过淘汰 落后产能取得了显著成果，而水泥行业主要通过环保限产来调控供给，并 未大规模去除过剩产能。环保限产在 2016 至 2017 年的环保督查中发挥了 重要作用，有效改善了空气质量，并推动了水泥行业在需求端走弱的情况 下仍维持较高盈利水平。 • 近年来，环保政策对水泥行业的影响逐步从一刀切的限产转向差异化限产 和能源消耗控制。中美贸易冲突及国内经济去杠杆导致需求承压，但水泥 盈利仍保持较好水平。2021 年，严格的双控政策（能源消耗双控）使得 水泥价格创下历史新高，单季度利润达到每吨 100 多元，高于 2017 年的 盈利水平。 • 过去三年全国水泥需求下降约 30%，主要受房地产周期下行及基建投资不 振影响。整个行业利润从峰值 1,800 亿元降至 300 亿元 ...

Summary of Conference Call on New Materials Investment Value Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the new materials industry, specifically discussing the investment value of a company named Yongxing Materials [1][4]. - The discussion highlighted the lithium mining sector, particularly the demand and supply dynamics influenced by companies like Ningde and the impact of the Belt Hill project in Australia [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Demand and Supply Dynamics - Ningde's production forecast for next year was revised upwards from a 20% growth to a 30% growth, leading to an additional demand of 50 to 60 GWh, equating to approximately 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent [1][3]. - The Belt Hill project in Australia, with a capacity of 120,000 tons, is now in maintenance mode, which could reduce the supply by 15,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent for 2025 [2][3]. - Overall supply expectations have been adjusted downwards from 140-145 million tons to potentially 135-140 million tons, indicating a tightening market [3]. Company Performance and Strategy - Yongxing Materials is characterized by low costs, capacity expansion, and high dividends, which are seen as key investment highlights [4][9]. - The company has a strong historical performance, having proven its ability to maintain low costs despite market skepticism regarding its production methods [5][6]. - Yongxing's expansion plans include increasing its mining capacity from 300 million tons to 900 million tons, which will significantly boost its production of lithium carbonate equivalent [7][8]. Financial Health and Dividend Policy - Yongxing has a strong financial position with net cash of 9 billion and no debt, allowing for potential high dividend payouts [9][10]. - The company has a history of substantial dividends, having distributed 5.2 billion since 2015, with expectations for continued high dividends in the future [9][10]. - The projected profits for the next year could reach 1 billion if lithium prices stabilize around 80,000, with potential for higher profits if prices increase [12]. Additional Important Insights - The company’s operational efficiency and disciplined management, stemming from its leadership background, contribute to its competitive edge in cost control [5][6]. - The lithium mining sector is expected to experience significant price increases due to supply constraints and rising demand, making it a critical area for investment [3][12]. - Yongxing's ability to adapt and explore various revenue streams, including potential processing of lithium carbonate, positions it well for future growth [12]. Conclusion - The conference emphasized the importance of the lithium mining sector and the promising outlook for Yongxing Materials, highlighting its low-cost structure, expansion capabilities, and strong dividend history as key factors for potential investors [1][12].