更多调研纪要关注知识星球/公众号：M T调研 微信号：s130970 2024年12月9日 | 12:34AM EST 美国经济分析 业绩期要点：准备应对关税 (摘要) 家，不过一些公司承认不大可能将生产迁回美国。 可能已是进行时。第三，多家公司表示可能重组供应链，以避开加征关税的国 推迟面对更高价格。自美国大选以来，来自中国港口的出口量上升表明这种情况 成本转移给客户。第二，有数家公司表示将在关税政策实施前囤积进口商品，以 n 公司计划通过三种策略来降低潜在关税的影响。第一，部分公司表示会将更高的 标已降至2016-17年水平。 ——尤其在低技能服务业——和价格增长带来下行压力：我们的价格公告追踪指 的管理层比例已回落至疫情前水平。劳动力供应的大幅增加似乎已对工资增长 n 完全再平衡的劳动力市场继续对工资和价格增长带来下行压力。谈及劳动力短缺 的离散度。 固处于正面区间，且在各收入群体的分布更加均衡，这应会进一步收窄支出增长 消费者的支出增速在过去一年略有走弱，我们预计在2025年，实际收入增长将稳 业绩电话会上围绕消费者的信心量化指标已升至近三年来的最高位。尽管低收入 n 美国消费者仍是力量之源。公司评论 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a baseline scenario for China's 2025 economic outlook, with a real GDP growth forecast of 4.5%, down from 4.9% in 2024 [8][9] Core Views - Chinese policymakers are expected to lean against the wind to stabilize domestic consumption and the property market while managing renewed US-China trade tensions in 2025 [6] - The US effective tariff rate on Chinese goods is assumed to increase by 20pp, leading to a 0.7pp drag on China's real GDP in 2025 [7][9] - Policymakers are expected to cut policy rates by 40bp and expand the augmented fiscal deficit by 1.8pp of GDP in 2025 to counteract growth headwinds [9] Economic Growth and Drivers - China's real GDP growth is expected to decelerate from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025, with a shift in growth drivers from exports to policy support [8][9] - Exports, which contributed 70% of GDP growth in 2024, are expected to decelerate sharply in 2025 due to higher US tariffs, with total goods export volume remaining flat [8][50] - Consumption, especially goods consumption, is expected to outperform, while property investment declines continue [9] Inflation and Deflation - CPI and PPI inflation are projected to be 0.8% and 0%, respectively, in 2025, below consensus expectations [17] - Structural factors, including industrial overcapacity and weak consumer confidence, are expected to weigh on inflation [17] Property Market - The property sector is expected to remain a significant drag on growth, with a projected 2.0pp negative contribution to GDP in 2025 [41] - New home starts and government land sales revenue have declined by more than 70% and 60%, respectively, from their 2020-21 peaks [36] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to play a key role in 2025, with the augmented fiscal deficit widening by 1.8pp of GDP to 13.0% [76] - The PBOC is expected to cut policy rates by 40bp in 2025, with two 20bp cuts in Q2 and Q4 [86][100] Trade and Tariffs - Chinese exports to the US are expected to decline significantly in 2025, while exports to other countries may increase modestly [51] - The current account surplus is expected to decline to 1.6% of GDP in 2025 from 2.1% in 2024, driven by a narrower goods trade surplus and a wider services trade deficit [55] Labor Market and Consumption - The labor market remains weak, with youth unemployment reaching 18.8% in August 2024 [30] - Household consumption growth is expected to stay flat at 5.0% in 2025, supported by subsidy programs and potential wealth effects from the stock market [24][25] Long-Term Growth Outlook - China's real GDP growth is expected to average 3.5% from 2025 to 2035, significantly lower than the 9.0% average during 2000-2019 [4][14] - The leadership's focus on technology-driven and high-quality growth is expected to continue, with "technology" and "high-quality" becoming more frequently mentioned in policy speeches [13]

Note: The following is a redacted version of the original report published October 21, 2024 [32 pgs]. POST-ELECTION ECONOMIC POLICIES WHAT'S INSIDE ISSUE 132 | October 21, 2024 | 4:50 PM EDT &&&&&&R&&&&& &&&& & && & Global Macro Research TOP of MIND With all eyes on the fast-approaching US election amid a close race between two candidates with vastly different worldviews, what the election could portend for economic policy—and the macro and market implications—is Top of Mind. Kevin Hassett, CEA Chairman und ...

Research 证券研究报告 | 2024年10月16日 | 12:07AM HKT CHINA RESILIENCE 聚焦中国高韧性企业 –腾讯控股 (0700.HK) 超级应用构筑生态系统，游戏业务布局全球 (摘要) | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Note: The following is a redacted version of the original report published October 9, 2024 [100 pgs]. Carbonomics We update our paths to net zero carbon that we introduced in June 2021, reflecting rising emissions and coal use since the 2022 energy crisis and material changes to our Carbonomics cost curve. We now present three global paths for decarbonization by sector and technology, adding a GS 2.0° scenario alongside our GS 1.5° and GS <2.0° scenarios. We highlight four main changes since 2021: 1) The 1. ...

Note: The following is a redacted version of the original report published August 29, 2024 [73 pgs]. EQUITY RESEARCH | August 29, 2024 | 3:58 AM BST GS SUSTAIN Nature & Biodiversity Analysing risks and opportunities through a new Nature Data Tool As more companies focus on Biodiversity and Nature to both meet corporate sustainability strategies and manage business risks, we see rising interest by corporates and Sustainable investors to quantify Nature-related performance, risk and enablement. With this repo ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhifei Biological (300122.SZ) is Neutral [2][4][16]. Core Views - Zhifei Biological is a major player in the Chinese vaccine market, with core products including the quadrivalent/nine-valent HPV vaccine (in collaboration with Merck), shingles vaccine (in collaboration with GSK), and self-developed vaccines and tuberculosis products. The company is expected to launch several products in the next three years, which should support revenue growth. However, the quadrivalent/nine-valent HPV vaccine may face a decline starting in 2025 due to the latest agreement with Merck [2][4]. - The report highlights key events to watch: the launch of the human diploid cell rabies vaccine, the 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, and the quadrivalent influenza vaccine, as well as new product licensing from multinational companies [2][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Zhifei Biological, indicating that the current valuation is reasonable compared to the historical average pre-COVID-19 [2][4]. Financial Projections - The 12-month price target for Zhifei Biological is set at RMB 52, based on a two-stage discounted cash flow valuation method, with a discount rate of 9% and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [3][4]. - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 52.92 billion for 2023, RMB 55.59 billion for 2024, RMB 51.37 billion for 2025, and RMB 50.44 billion for 2026 [4]. Key Products and Developments - The report notes that the RSV vaccine developed by GSK has entered Phase III clinical trials in China, with an expected completion date for the primary endpoint follow-up in March 2025. If successful, it may receive approval from the National Medical Products Administration in the first half of 2026 [1]. - The quadrivalent/nine-valent HPV vaccine is expected to face a decline starting in 2025, which is a significant concern for the company's revenue [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Envicool (002837.SZ) [1][8] Core Insights - Envicool reported robust Q2 performance, aligning with its previous earnings forecast, with revenue, gross profit, EBIT, and net profit showing significant year-on-year growth of 36%, 39%, 96%, and 82% respectively [1] - The company anticipates continued strong growth in its data center (liquid cooling) temperature control business, driven by increased orders in June and July, although growth in the energy storage temperature control segment is expected to slow [1][4] - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on enhancing product value and expanding its customer base both domestically and internationally, particularly in the CPU server market [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2024, Envicool's financials were as follows: revenue of RMB 967 million, gross profit of RMB 311 million, EBIT of RMB 120 million, and net profit of RMB 121 million, all exceeding prior forecasts [1][4] - The gross profit margin for Q2 was 32%, with EBIT and net profit margins at 12% and 13% respectively, reflecting improvements compared to previous periods [1][4] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2030 slightly upward by 1%, with a new target price set at RMB 33.1, based on a 30x P/E ratio for 2025 [1][8] Business Segment Insights - The data center temperature control revenue grew by 86% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, driven by strong demand from domestic cloud and hosting clients, as well as telecom operators [1][2] - The liquid cooling business maintained approximately 100% year-on-year growth, supported by projects in China and Southeast Asia [1][2] - The energy storage temperature control segment saw only an 11% year-on-year increase, attributed to a high base effect from 2023 and declining prices in temperature control systems [2][4] Strategic Outlook - Envicool aims to maintain a strong R&D focus while improving operational efficiency, with plans to enhance its product offerings and expand into overseas markets [4][7] - The company is also focusing on securing service contracts for energy storage projects to drive sustainable growth [4][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 12-month target price of RMB 26, down from RMB 27, based on a 14x exit P/E multiple applied to the expected EPS for 2026 [1][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to maintain industry-leading performance due to its strong brand, extensive distribution network, and comprehensive product/brand portfolio, despite a slight downward adjustment in EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 by 3-5% due to weak consumer demand [1][6][7]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the high-end kitchen appliance market in China, expanding into rapidly growing categories such as dishwashers and integrated cooking appliances, with projected revenue and net profit growth in the high single to double digits from 2022 to 2026 [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E are RMB 11,386 million, with a year-over-year growth of 1.6%. The 2025E revenue is projected at RMB 11,998 million, reflecting a growth of 5.4%, and 2026E at RMB 12,653 million, with a growth of 5.5% [3][5]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to be 50.6% in 2024E, slightly decreasing from previous years, while the net income for 2024E is projected at RMB 1,790 million, with a year-over-year growth of 3.3% [3][5]. - The company’s EPS is forecasted to be RMB 1.89 for 2024E, with a growth of 3.3% from the previous year, and is expected to reach RMB 2.15 by 2026E [3][5]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has a dominant position in the high-end range hood and gas hob markets, with stable growth in core products. The focus on independent product development since 2019 has allowed the company to expand its market share in structural growth categories, particularly in dishwashers [6][7]. - Potential short-term catalysts for growth include the successful launch of new products in emerging categories and a rebound in real estate market demand [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Kelun Pharmaceutical is Neutral, with a target price raised to RMB 41 from RMB 39, indicating a potential upside of 31.5% from the current price of RMB 31.18 [6][4][3]. Core Insights - Kelun Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of RMB 11.827 billion for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, which aligns with the forecast [1]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.8 billion, a 28% increase year-on-year, but below expectations [1]. - The actual tax rate for the first half of 2024 was estimated at 36%, higher than anticipated due to the expiration of previous tax incentives [1]. - The company is a leading player in the infusion products market and a significant entity in the APIs and generic drugs sector, with growth driven by the ramp-up of innovative drugs [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 23.89 billion, with net profit estimates of RMB 3.136 billion, reflecting a 3% increase from previous estimates [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 2.20, up 2.8% from earlier predictions [2]. Valuation Methodology - The target price of RMB 41 is derived using a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, applying a 16.6x P/E ratio for the infusion and generic drug business, consistent with global peers [4]. - The valuation also considers the market value of investments in subsidiaries and a discounted cash flow approach for the innovative drug segment [4]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - Kelun Pharmaceutical's current implied P/E ratio is 15.8x, which is relatively reasonable compared to the industry average of 16.6x [3]. - Key growth drivers include fluctuations in API prices, the speed of innovative drug launches, and updates on centralized procurement policies [3].