Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for cash returns in the Chinese market, with expectations for aggregate dividends and buybacks to reach Rmb3.0tn and Rmb0.6tn respectively in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% and 35% [1][11]. Core Insights - Chinese listed companies are experiencing record-high cash returns, driven by strong policy support and conservative cash return practices, with a significant increase in dividends and buybacks anticipated in the coming years [1][11]. - The report highlights a preference among investors for "Old China" companies that prioritize shareholder returns, with a correlation between cash spending on dividends/buybacks and increased company valuations [2][45]. - There is a growing appetite for cash return strategies among various types of Chinese investors, as these strategies are perceived as offering superior returns compared to bonds in a low-interest rate environment [3][53]. Summary by Sections Cash Returns Growth - Following the "Nine Measures" policy released in April 2024, over 4300 companies recorded Rmb2.7tn in dividends in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 39%, up from 37% in 2023 [11][12]. - The expectation for total dividends in 2025 is Rmb3.0tn, supported by high-single digit earnings growth and an increase in payout ratios [11][12]. Buybacks and Financial Incentives - A-share and offshore companies repurchased approximately Rmb160bn and Rmb300bn worth of shares in 2024, marking increases of 56% and 79% year-on-year [20][31]. - The re-lending program for corporate buybacks has seen strong adoption, with over 620 A-share firms announcing credit agreements totaling Rmb133bn [31][25]. Investment Strategies - The GS China Shareholder Returns Portfolio has been refreshed to include 30 GS-Buy rated companies, which are actively returning capital to shareholders [63][64]. - The GS Chinese Prominent 10 portfolio focuses on large-cap companies investing heavily in growth while also providing decent cash returns, appealing to investors seeking a mix of growth and income [64][65]. Sector Analysis - Companies in traditional sectors like Financials and Utilities tend to favor dividends, while those in New Economy sectors like TMT and Healthcare are more inclined towards buybacks [37][46]. - The report categorizes over 6700 Chinese listed companies into "New China" and "Old China," noting differing investor preferences for capital allocation between these groups [46][45].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Manufacturing PMIs in China showed improvement from May to June, with NBS manufacturing PMI rising from 49.5 to 49.7 and Caixin manufacturing PMI increasing from 48.3 to 50.4, indicating better manufacturing growth. Conversely, services PMIs declined, with NBS services PMI falling from 50.2 to 50.1 and Caixin services PMI decreasing from 51.1 to 50.6, suggesting weaker services growth in June [1][2] - Recent policy developments include a meeting chaired by President Xi on July 1, focusing on creating a unified national market to reduce local protectionism and implementing reforms to address overcapacity and deflation. Additionally, a nationwide childbirth subsidy program was announced, providing RMB3600 per child per year until the age of three, which may signal a shift in government fiscal spending priorities [3][8] - Foreign investors are currently seeking catalysts for investment in the Chinese market, with discussions revolving around US tariffs, property market conditions, and consumption weaknesses. Local investors are more focused on domestic policy implementations, while foreign investors express concerns about geopolitical risks, particularly regarding Taiwan [8] Summary by Sections - **Manufacturing and Services PMIs**: The report highlights a rise in manufacturing PMIs and a decline in services PMIs, indicating a shift in economic activity favoring manufacturing over services [1][2] - **Policy Developments**: Key policy initiatives aim to address local protectionism and overcapacity, with a new childbirth subsidy program reflecting a change in fiscal priorities [3][8] - **Investor Sentiment**: There is a notable divide in focus between local and foreign investors, with the former concentrating on domestic policies and the latter on macroeconomic catalysts and geopolitical risks [8]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - Strengthening China's social safety net is crucial for rebalancing the economy towards consumption, as highlighted by recent policy discussions and government statements [3][4][5] - The current state of China's social safety net is characterized by significant gaps in coverage and benefits, particularly for unemployment, work-related injury, and maternity insurance [3][6][42] - The report emphasizes the need for the Chinese government to broaden coverage, reduce contribution rates, and increase expenditure on social security to ensure equitable access [3][6][60] Summary by Sections Overview of China's Social Safety Net - China's social security insurance includes five types: pension, medical, unemployment, work-related injury, and maternity insurance, with pension and medical insurance achieving near-universal coverage [3][6] - As of the end of 2024, basic medical insurance covered 1.33 billion people (94% of the total population) and pension insurance covered 1.07 billion people (92% of those aged 16 and above) [6][20] Challenges in the Current System - The unemployment, work-related injury, and maternity insurance programs have low coverage ratios, primarily affecting flexible workers who often do not participate [3][6][42] - The average monthly pension for urban retirees is significantly higher than that for rural residents, indicating disparities in benefits [20][22] Areas for Improvement - The report suggests that to enhance the social safety net, the government should consider increasing fiscal subsidies, reducing contribution rates, and integrating programs across cities to facilitate participation by flexible workers [60][61] - The aging population poses a significant challenge, with projections indicating a decline in the potential support ratio from 2.7 in 2025 to 1 in 2060, necessitating a shift in government spending priorities [61][62]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Huaqin Technology with a "Buy" rating and includes it on the APAC Conviction List [1]. Core Insights - Huaqin's target price is raised to Rmb94, with expectations for net income to grow at a 27% CAGR from 2024 to 2027, driven by an increase in AI server shipments [1]. - The contribution of AI servers to Huaqin's revenues is projected to rise from 14% in 2024 to 45% by 2027 [1]. - The company is diversifying from consumer electronics to data centers, capitalizing on stronger market demand and healthier competition [1]. Revenue and Growth Projections - Huaqin's blended revenues are expected to grow at a 29% CAGR from 2024 to 2028 [5]. - The data center business, which includes general servers, switches, and AI servers, is anticipated to see AI servers grow at a 73% CAGR from 2024 to 2028, followed by switches at 67% CAGR and general servers at 8% CAGR [6]. - Data center revenues are expected to increase from 21% in 2024 to 51% by 2028 [6]. Earnings Revisions - Revenue estimates for 2025-2028 have been revised upwards by 1%, 14%, 21%, and 29% respectively, primarily due to higher expectations for AI servers and switches [9]. - Despite a reduction in net income estimates by 12% to 0% for 2025-2028, the target price is raised by 14.9% due to a higher target P/E multiple [9][13]. - The new target P/E multiple is set at 18.8x, reflecting a positive outlook on earnings growth driven by the data center business [13]. Financial Metrics - The report outlines expected revenues of Rmb147.2 billion in 2025, Rmb208.4 billion in 2026, and Rmb253.2 billion in 2027 [21]. - The net income for 2025 is projected at Rmb3.89 billion, increasing to Rmb5.07 billion in 2026 and Rmb5.91 billion in 2027 [21]. - The gross margin is expected to decline from 9.4% in 2025 to 8.4% in 2028, while the operating margin is projected to decrease from 2.6% in 2025 to 2.5% in 2028 [10][18].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but discusses the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and implied volatility in FX markets, suggesting that current levels of implied volatility are justified given the macro backdrop [4][46]. Core Insights - The report highlights that FX volatility has declined due to improved macroeconomic conditions, including a recent trade deal between the US and China, which has alleviated some recession and inflation risks [4][46]. - There is a strong positive relationship between FX implied volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty, indicating that when uncertainty increases, implied volatility tends to rise [28][32]. - The report emphasizes that US macroeconomic uncertainty has a more significant impact on FX volatility compared to other regions, particularly through factors like CPI uncertainty [28][31]. Summary by Sections Macro Drivers of Implied Volatility - Recent declines in FX implied volatility are linked to a less uncertain macroeconomic environment, with reduced tail risks related to recession and inflation [4][46]. - The report quantifies the impact of macro uncertainty on FX implied volatility using economic forecasts from Consensus Economics [21][27]. Relationship Between Realized and Implied Volatility - Implied volatility is closely related to realized volatility, often leading to mispricing in the early stages of economic shifts [9][12]. - Realized volatility has exceeded implied volatility for most of the year, indicating that markets have underpriced the actual volatility in FX markets [12][46]. Literature on Macro Drivers of Volatility - Previous studies confirm that macroeconomic conditions, particularly monetary policy, are key drivers of FX volatility [16][19]. - The report discusses how inflation and interest rate differentials have historically influenced volatility trends in FX markets [16][19]. Estimating the Impact of Macro Uncertainty - The report employs regression analysis to demonstrate the strong relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and FX implied volatility across major currency pairs [27][28]. - US CPI uncertainty is identified as the strongest explanatory factor for FX volatility, followed closely by domestic monetary policy uncertainty [31][32]. What Matters at Different Points in Time - The report notes that while inflation has been a key driver of volatility, this relationship can shift over time based on economic conditions [34][35]. - Recent benign inflation data from the US has contributed to lower FX volatility, but potential increases in tariff rates could heighten macro uncertainty and volatility [34][46].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the steel and cement sectors in China, suggesting potential benefits from a more supportive policy environment on supply discipline [1][12][13]. Core Insights - There is a renewed policy focus on addressing supply discipline in China, with a call for a unified national market and a crackdown on excessive competition leading to lower prices [1]. - The report highlights that excess capacity in various industries ranges from 30% to 50%, with specific figures for steel and cement being around 30% to 50% [2][11]. - The potential for executing production cuts in the steel sector is noted, with a target of 50 million tons, which could lead to a significant reduction in crude steel output in the second half of 2025 [13][18]. - The cement sector is also undergoing capacity categorization and is targeting a reduction of unauthorized and energy-intensive capacities, which could improve capacity utilization from 50% to 70% [13][14]. Summary by Sections Supply Side Expectations - The report discusses ongoing policy efforts to discourage overly fierce competition and control output in sectors like hog farming and steel, aiming to reverse price deflation trends [12]. - The clarity of future policy guidance remains uncertain, but discussions suggest a more supportive context for executing supply plans in the steel and cement sectors [13]. Excess Capacity Analysis - Excess capacity is a persistent challenge, with estimates indicating that unauthorized excess clinker capacity in the cement industry exceeds 400 million tons, representing nearly 18% of the industry [14][15]. - The report estimates that additional requirements could lead to a targeted exit of 277 to 377 million tons of clinker capacity, further reducing excess capacity [13]. Market Impact - The report anticipates that the execution of steel production cuts could create a meaningful deficit in the market, similar to conditions observed in the second half of 2021, which previously led to margin expansion and reduced exports [18][19]. - The implied spread from rebar futures suggests a potential margin expansion of nearly RMB 200 per ton in the steel sector, indicating a strong possibility of production cuts [16].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for Longcheer (603341.SS) but indicates a positive outlook on the company's growth opportunities in AI PC and AI/AR glasses [1][2]. Core Insights - Longcheer is optimistic about the increasing penetration of AI PCs, which are expected to have higher average selling prices (ASP) due to enhanced specifications for computing power and storage [3]. - The company is expanding its business into AI/AR glasses, leveraging its strengths in lightweight design and customized solutions, with projected annual shipments in China expected to grow at a 56% CAGR from 2024 to 2030, reaching 7 million units by 2030 [7]. - Longcheer is also focusing on overseas expansion, with production facilities in Vietnam and India, targeting markets in the US, Europe, Japan, and Korea [8]. Summary by Sections AI PC Market - Management is positive about the rising AI PC penetration rate, viewing Longcheer as a key beneficiary in the supply chain due to its R&D efficiency and automated production lines [3]. - The company has already penetrated local brands and aims to collaborate with global-tier brand clients [3]. AI/AR Glasses Market - Longcheer is actively providing PCBA and accessory services for AI/AR glasses, with a focus on enhancing user experience through lightweight solutions and proofing/simulation [7]. - The management anticipates significant growth in the AI/AR glasses market, driven by affordability and increased use cases [7]. Overseas Expansion - Longcheer has established production sites in China, Vietnam, and India, with plans to expand capacity in Vietnam to mitigate concentration risks amid trade tensions [8]. - The company is building a Manage Sales & Marketing (MSM) framework to enhance product development efficiency and service quality for its overseas markets [8].

Investment Ratings - PetroChina: Buy with a 12-month target price of HK$8.30/Rmb12.60, reflecting a potential upside of 21.5% [19][24] - CNOOC: Buy with a 12-month target price of HK$20.90, indicating a potential upside of 14.6% [26][29] - Sinopec: Neutral with a 12-month target price of HK$3.70/Rmb4.90, suggesting a downside of 11.7% [30][35] Core Insights - The report emphasizes a preference for free cash flow (FCF) leaders like PetroChina and CNOOC, both expected to achieve double-digit FCF yields in 2026E [2][19] - PetroChina and CNOOC are projected to achieve FCF breakeven at Brent oil prices of US$30-$40/bbl, with attractive FCF yields of approximately 11% for both companies under various oil price scenarios [21][17] - Sinopec is expected to face weak FCF due to prolonged chemical market surplus and elevated capital expenditures, leading to a Neutral rating [30][39] Summary by Sections Earnings Estimates - PetroChina's estimated net income for 2Q is projected to decline by 30% year-on-year, while Sinopec's is expected to drop by 46% [1] - CNOOC's 1H net income is estimated to decrease by 16% year-on-year [1] Valuation Comparisons - PetroChina and CNOOC are trading at discounted valuations of 3.1X-3.2X on 2026 EV/DACF compared to a global average of 5.5X [2][14] - The report highlights that both companies could maintain attractive FCF yields even at lower oil prices, with PetroChina and CNOOC achieving yields of approximately 10% and 9% respectively at US$60/bbl [2][18] Price Sensitivity Analysis - For PetroChina, total EBITDA is projected to range from Rmb351.6 million at US$50/bbl to Rmb542.5 million at US$90/bbl [20] - CNOOC's EBITDA is expected to range from Rmb176.2 million at US$50/bbl to Rmb308.0 million at US$90/bbl [28] Market Dynamics - Recent geopolitical events have supported oil prices, leading to low domestic oil product inventories and robust refining margins despite weak demand [1][2] - The report notes that deep utilization cuts among state-owned refiners have contributed to the current market conditions [2][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Feihe, Yili, and Mengniu, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in light of the new child-raising subsidies [10][26]. Core Insights - The Chinese government is planning to implement nationwide child-raising subsidies of Rmb3,600 per year for each child under three years old, which is expected to significantly impact disposable income and support the fertility rate recovery [1][2][3]. - The total potential government spending on these subsidies is estimated to be around Rmb100 billion in 2025, based on a forecast of 9.3 million new births [1]. - The subsidies are expected to account for approximately 9% of the per capita disposable income, which is projected to be Rmb41,000 in 2024 [1]. Summary by Sections Government Policy - The nationwide child-raising subsidy will be effective from January 1, 2025, and will cover all eligible children, including first-borns [1][2]. - The policy includes supportive measures such as tax exemptions for the subsidies and the establishment of a grant fund to assist regional governments [1]. Demographic Impact - The report suggests that the subsidies could help recover the fertility rate, particularly among mothers aged 20-24 and 30-44, who have seen declines in birth rates compared to pre-COVID levels [3][9]. - The age group of 0-4 is expected to see a sequential narrowing of declines, returning to positive growth by 2033 [13]. Company Implications - Companies like Feihe, Yili, and Mengniu are likely to benefit directly from the subsidies, as they have significant exposure to the milk powder and dairy markets [10][17]. - Yili and Feihe have the highest exposure to milk powder sales, with 24% and 92% of their 2024 sales, respectively, being related to children's consumption [10][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on ZDT and raises the target price (TP) to NT$140 from NT$130, maintains a "Neutral" rating on Unimicron and NYPCB with TP raised to NT$97 and NT$110 respectively, and maintains a "Sell" rating on Kinsus with a new TP of NT$70 from NT$63 [8][21][31]. Core Insights - The increase in BT substrate prices in early Q3 2025, driven by T-glass and gold price hikes, is expected to improve revenue trends for substrate makers, particularly Kinsus and NYPCB, with BT revenue exposure projected to exceed 25% of total revenue in 2025 [2][3]. - The report anticipates a potential further pricing hike for high layer count ABF substrates in the coming months, which could enhance revenue and profitability outlook for substrate suppliers in the second half of 2025 [3][7]. - The T-glass shortage is expected to ease by the first half of 2026, which may stabilize pricing levels despite the current supply constraints [4][7]. Summary by Sections Pricing and Revenue Outlook - BT substrate prices have increased by 5%-20% in early Q3 2025 due to T-glass supply tightness and rising gold prices, which account for 30-40% of BT cost of goods sold (COGS) [1][2]. - The report expects improved profitability for BT substrates in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half, despite potential unfavorable gross margin and operating profit margin conditions due to material cost hikes and currency appreciation [2][3]. Company-Specific Earnings Revisions - Unimicron's 2025 earnings estimate has been cut by 25% due to unfavorable foreign exchange conditions, while revenue is expected to increase by 1% [17][19]. - NYPCB's earnings estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised up by 3%, 11%, and 7% respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on substrate pricing [23][25]. - Kinsus's 2025 earnings estimate has been reduced by 16% due to unfavorable FX conditions, but 2026 and 2027 estimates have been increased by 10% and 11% respectively [28][30]. - ZDT's earnings estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised down by 17%, 1%, and 1% respectively, primarily due to unfavorable FX conditions [33][35].