Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Global-E Online Ltd. (GLBE) since December 10, 2021, with a 12-month price target of $39.00, indicating an upside potential of 22.6% from the current price of $31.81 [6][25]. Core Insights - Management expressed confidence that the renewal with Shopify will not lead to a decoupling but will enhance the economics of the third-party (3P) solution, potentially accelerating Managed Markets volumes [1]. - The company is experiencing a growing pipeline, with some projects moving faster than expected due to tariff impacts, which could positively influence momentum into 2026 [1]. - The implementation backlog for the second half of the year is less concentrated than in 2024, reducing implementation risks [1]. - Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, same-store sales (SSS) trends are tracking in line with expectations, with management reiterating guidance for 2025 [14][16]. - The renegotiation with Shopify is viewed positively, with management indicating that it will be net beneficial for GLBE, despite some changes in exclusivity and unit economics [14][17][18]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from $752.8 million in 2024 to $1,393.4 million by 2027, with EBITDA increasing from $140.8 million to $339.4 million over the same period [2][11]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS), from $0.64 in 2024 to $1.63 in 2027 [2][11]. - The forecasted free cash flow yield is expected to rise from 2.7% in 2024 to 6.1% by 2027 [2][11]. Market Position and Valuation - GLBE's market capitalization is approximately $5.6 billion, with an enterprise value of $5.0 billion [2]. - The company is positioned favorably with limited U.S. exposure (12% of inbound volume) and limited U.S. de-minimis exposure, which should help navigate current trade dynamics [1]. - The report suggests that the renegotiation with Shopify could lead to a mid-single-digit benefit to EBITDA in 2026, with potential for a 10% upside by 2027 if Managed Markets adoption accelerates [21][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meiji Holdings is Neutral, with a 12-month target price revised to ¥3,400 from ¥3,500, reflecting a slight decrease in operating profit estimates [1][18][22]. Core Insights - The report indicates that operating profits for FY3/25 are expected to miss guidance, primarily due to anticipated shortfalls in sales across domestic milk, the dairy overseas business, and the vaccines/animal health business [1][17]. - The company has a significant market share in Japan for dairy products, chocolate, and protein products, but its growth prospects are considered to be adequately reflected in the current share price [22]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring input costs, price hikes, and sales recovery in the food segment, as well as growth in the pharmaceuticals segment, particularly in vaccines and overseas business expansion [19][22]. Financial Estimates - FY3/26 operating profit estimates have been adjusted by -0.1% for the overall company, with specific adjustments of +¥0.7 billion for the food segment and +¥0.2 billion for the pharmaceuticals segment, while adjustments account for a decrease of -¥1.0 billion [1][17]. - Sales estimates for FY3/26 are projected at ¥1,192.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [3][20]. - The net profit for FY3/26 is estimated at ¥53.9 billion, with an EPS of ¥202.1 [3][20]. Segment Performance - The food segment's operating profit is expected to be ¥70.7 billion for FY3/26, while the pharmaceuticals segment is projected at ¥25.7 billion [20]. - Key areas of focus for the food segment include dairy, chocolate, and nutrition, with specific sales estimates for dairy at ¥273.5 billion and chocolate at ¥177.2 billion for FY3/26 [20]. - The pharmaceuticals segment is anticipated to see growth driven by vaccines and the expansion of the overseas CMO/CDMO business, despite challenges from drug price revisions [19][22].

28 May 2025 | 4:05AM EDT Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) Lower to Neutral After Recent Relative and Absolute Performance; Prefer Buy-Rated VLO, MPC, DINO | PARR | | --- | | 6m Price Target: $19.00 | | Price: $22.47 | | Downside: 15.4% | Following recent share outperformance, we are downgrading Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) from Buy to Neutral. While we remain constructive on the refining sector (supported by increased OPEC+ production and tightening refining supply/demand dynamics), we continue to be selective in ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Salesforce Inc. with a price target of $340.00, representing an upside of 22.7% from the current price of $277.19 [1][3][19]. Core Insights - Salesforce's acquisition of Informatica for $8 billion at a 30% premium is expected to enhance its capabilities in data management and governance, supporting a unified architecture for AI applications [1][2][15]. - The acquisition is projected to be the largest by revenue in Salesforce's history, with Informatica's revenue guidance for FY25 at $1.7 billion [2][3]. - Salesforce is positioned to capitalize on the digital transformation trend, with a total addressable market (TAM) of $284 billion for its product portfolio [15][16]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from $37.9 billion in FY25 to $50.3 billion in FY28, with EBITDA increasing from $15.98 billion to $19.93 billion over the same period [3][12]. - The report anticipates continued operating margin expansion, projecting a 35%+ operating margin and free cash flow per share of $17-18 in FY27 [14][15]. Market Positioning - Salesforce is viewed as a strategic player in the $1 trillion+ cloud industry, with a robust product portfolio that spans various aspects of digital transformation [15][16]. - The company is expected to improve its unit economics and expand its share of wallet within existing customer accounts, leveraging its large installed base [16][18]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights that Salesforce trades at 17x EV/CY26 free cash flow, compared to an average of ~28x for its peers, indicating a compelling risk/reward profile [14][19]. - Key financial ratios include a projected P/E ratio decreasing from 28.2 in FY25 to 18.4 in FY28, and an EV/EBITDA ratio decreasing from 16.8 to 11.5 over the same period [9][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for VNET Group, with a 12-month price target of US$13, indicating a potential upside of 115.2% from the current price of US$6.04 [13][15]. Core Insights - VNET Group reported strong 1Q25 results, with revenue increasing by 18% year-over-year to Rmb2,246 million, and adjusted EBITDA rising by 26% year-over-year to Rmb682 million, both exceeding consensus estimates [1][3]. - The company is transitioning from a traditional retail IDC operator to a rapidly growing wholesale IDC operator, with expectations of significant revenue and EBITDA growth driven by increased AI investments [13]. - Wholesale IDC revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 52% from 2024 to 2027, while EBITDA is expected to grow at a CAGR of 50% during the same period [13]. Financial Performance - In 1Q25, wholesale IDC revenue surged by 86% year-over-year, accounting for 30% of total revenue, while retail IDC revenue grew by 5% year-over-year, marking its first positive growth since 4Q23 [1][3]. - The average monthly service revenue (MSR) increased by 7% year-over-year but decreased by 19% quarter-over-quarter to Rmb568k per MW per month [7]. - The company maintained its full-year guidance for 2025, with a capex plan of Rmb10-12 billion [1]. Capacity and Orders - VNET secured 119MW of wholesale orders in 1Q25, including significant contracts with leading cloud computing customers [2]. - As of 1Q25, VNET had 573MW of wholesale capacity in service, with a commitment rate nearing 100% [11][4]. - The total capacity under construction decreased to 377MW, while the total capacity held for future development is 670MW [11]. Market Position and Outlook - VNET is positioned as a leading carrier-neutral data center operator in China, with approximately 74% of its 2024 revenue derived from IDCs [13]. - The report suggests that rising contributions from wholesale IDC revenue and EBITDA may lead to continued upward re-rating of multiples and valuation compounding for VNET [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for OBIC is Neutral, maintained due to a lack of valuation appeal despite stable growth prospects in ERP demand [1][9][30]. Core Insights - OBIC's operating profit estimates for FY3/26 have been raised to ¥87.0 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for cloud services and large ERP projects [1][2][19]. - The company is expected to achieve double-digit profit growth, with the system support (SS) business projected to grow by 14% year-over-year in FY3/26 [1][23]. - The target price has been increased to ¥5,230 from ¥4,770, based on a DCF model that reflects the company's high earnings stability [1][32]. Financial Estimates - Revenue forecasts for FY3/26 are set at ¥132.5 billion, with operating profits expected to reach ¥87.0 billion, slightly above the company's guidance of ¥86.2 billion [2][4]. - The operating margin is anticipated to improve, driven by growth in the high-margin SS business and greater efficiency in SG&A expenses [13][31]. - The company has a market capitalization of ¥2.3 trillion and an enterprise value of ¥2.1 trillion [4]. Business Segments - The system integration (SI) business is expected to see stable growth, with sales and operating profits rising by 6% and 7% year-over-year, respectively [19][22]. - The SS business, which includes ERP maintenance, is projected to drive overall earnings, with sales and operating profits increasing by 13% and 14% year-over-year in FY3/26 [23][24]. - The shift to cloud services is significant, with the proportion of customers using cloud services expected to rise to 91% by the end of FY3/26 [23][25]. Market Position - OBIC is focusing on large corporate clients, competing with major players like Oracle and SAP, and is gradually increasing its market share [22][31]. - The company has nearly 10 large projects underway, each with development costs exceeding ¥500 million, indicating high utilization rates [22][31]. - The manufacturing sector accounts for approximately 30% of OBIC's sales, with strong demand for ERP upgrades due to a high proportion of legacy systems [19][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) with a target price raised to HK$65 from HK$62, indicating a 26% upside potential [1][18]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's 1Q25 results exceeded expectations, with revenue growing by 47% year-over-year (yoy) to Rmb111 billion, and adjusted net profit increasing by 65% yoy to Rmb10.7 billion [1]. - Key growth drivers included AIoT and electric vehicles (EV), with AIoT revenue growing by 59% yoy, significantly outperforming the market [2][34]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for AIoT reached a record high of 25.2%, up 5.4 percentage points yoy, making it the largest gross profit contributor for Xiaomi [3][58]. Financial Performance - Revenue from smart EVs showed a gross profit margin expansion to 23.2%, attributed to strong pricing power and lower bill of materials (BOM) costs [4]. - Smartphone revenue grew by 9% yoy to Rmb50.6 billion, with a market share increase in China to 19%, marking Xiaomi's first position in the market after 10 years [28]. - Internet services revenue increased by 13% yoy to Rmb9.1 billion, driven by a 20% growth in advertising revenue [67]. Segment Analysis - AIoT and lifestyle products contributed significantly to revenue, with smart large home appliances seeing a revenue growth of 114% yoy [42]. - Tablet shipments grew by 56% yoy, with Xiaomi achieving the No.3 market share globally and in China [47]. - Wearables revenue increased by 56.5% yoy, with Xiaomi maintaining a leading position in the global market [58]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in AIoT, projecting a 22% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for overseas revenue from 2024 to 2027 [61]. - Upcoming events to watch include the 6.18 shopping festival and a new product release event, which are expected to drive further consumer interest and sales [19].

Investment Ratings - Walt Disney Co. (DIS): Buy-rated with a 12-month price target of $148 [27] - Fox Corp. (FOXA): Buy-rated with a 12-month price target of $61 [29] - Comcast Corp. (CMCSA): Buy-rated with a 12-month price target of $40 [30] - Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD): Neutral-rated with a 12-month price target of $10.50 [32] - Paramount Global (PARA): Not Rated [34] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in traditional TV viewership, with prime time commercial ratings for broadcast (excluding sports) down 16% year-over-year in 2Q25-to-date [2] - Streaming viewership has reached an all-time high of 44.3%, with YouTube achieving a record share of 12.4% [6][10] - Cable viewership has also seen a slight increase, driven by sports and news programming, with cable share rising to 24.5% [8][9] Summary by Sections TV Viewership Trends - Streaming's share of total TV viewership increased by 0.5 percentage points month-over-month to 44.3% in April 2025 [6][10] - Broadcast share increased by 0.3 percentage points to 20.8%, driven by events like the Men's NCAA Basketball Championship [7][9] - Cable share rose by 0.5 percentage points to 24.5%, supported by strong sports viewership [8][9] Company Performance - In 2Q25-to-date, total day ratings for major networks declined significantly: DIS (-28%), PARA (-30%), WBD (-27%), CMCSA (-32%), while FOX saw an increase of 28% [3][4] - FOX's growth was primarily driven by a 46% increase in viewership at Fox News Channel [3][25] - The report indicates that linear TV has lost approximately 6 percentage points to streaming and other platforms year-over-year as of April 2025 [14] Valuation and Price Targets - The valuation methodologies for the companies include various EBITDA multiples, with DIS at 11X for Parks and Experiences, and FOX at 7.0X for NTM+1Y EBITDA [27][29][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of multi-channel and multi-platform distribution strategies for media companies to sustain growth in streaming engagement [6]

Raise TP on steady growth centered on Japan and defensive earnings, but limited valuation appeal; stay Neutral | 4307.T | | --- | | 12m Price Target: ¥5,800 | | Price: ¥5,891 | | Downside: 1.5% | We update our earnings estimates based on Nomura Research Institute's (NRI) FY3/25 and 4Q (January-March) results (see our report on 4Q results). We lower our FY3/26 and FY3/27 operating profit estimates by 1% each, mainly on industrial IT solutions, reflecting the impact of a possible deterioration in business sen ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on US companies, particularly those exposed to Chinese suppliers and customers, suggesting a moderate negative impact from tariffs [2][3][51]. Core Insights - The White House has implemented significant tariff increases, raising the US effective tariff rate by 9 percentage points, which is six times larger than during the 2018-2019 trade war [5][6]. - Equity returns for US companies exposed to Chinese suppliers and customers initially underperformed by 4 percentage points around tariff escalation announcements, with a net effect of -1.3 percentage points after some recovery during de-escalation announcements [2][17]. - Companies with exposure to other international suppliers and customers showed only modest underperformance compared to domestically focused companies across all tariff announcement days [3][21]. - Companies expected to benefit from tariffs did not show significant outperformance during tariff escalations or de-escalations, indicating skepticism about the competitive advantages provided by tariffs [3][26]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact on US Companies - The report analyzes how the equity market has priced the impact of tariffs on US companies, focusing on exposures to China and other international markets [11][12]. - Companies exposed to Chinese suppliers or customers had already underperformed by 3.7 percentage points before the first tariff announcement, suggesting some impact was priced in advance [20][23]. Industry-Level Analysis - Industries in the top quartile of exposure to tariff-driven input cost increases underperformed those in the bottom quartile by 8 percentage points on tariff escalation announcement days [36]. - The overall net underperformance for these industries was -3 percentage points, indicating a moderate negative impact from trade tensions [36]. Market Reactions - The equity market has not sold off significantly in aggregate, reflecting investor optimism that the worst tariff shocks are behind [8][50]. - The report suggests that while the market has priced in some negative effects of tariffs, the anticipated benefits for companies protected by tariffs remain limited and statistically insignificant [51][52].