证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2024 11 29 年 月 日 中国秦发（00866.HK） 交割落地，困境反转，未来可期 2024 年 11 月 28 日，公司公告《完成非常重大出售事项出售目标公司 的 40%权益》。 ➢ 2024 年 6 月 25 日，秦发集团与浙能集团签约印尼 SDE 煤矿合作项 目。根据公司公告，秦发投资有限公司（（公司的全资附属公司）有条 件出售力远发展 40%股权于浙江能源国际有限公司，对价约 29.5 亿 元。交易完成后，浙能集团将持有 SDE 30%股权，持有 SDE 30%的 收益并承担 30%的费用；秦发所得净额约 28 亿元人民币，其中 64% 拟于偿还债务；2%用于股息分派；余额拨作资本开支以及一般营运 资金。 ➢ 2024 年 11 月 28 日，公司公告称前述出售目标公司权益已完成，本 公司全资附公司秦发投资有限公司及浙江能源亚太控股有限公司分 别拥有 60%及 40%权益，力远发展仍为公司附公司，财务业绩并表 本公司。 中国秦发：出海印尼，宏图正展。公司拥有 SDE 75%股权，SDE 煤矿资 源优异，发热量可至 4450-4500kca ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huazhu Group-S (01179 HK) and Huazhu (HTHT O) with a target price of HKD 36 01 per share for the Hong Kong-listed stock and USD 46 28 per ADS for the US-listed stock [5] Core Views - Huazhu Group reported Q3 2024 revenue of RMB 6 44 billion (+2 4% YoY) at the lower end of the guidance range Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1 27 billion (-4 8% YoY) while adjusted net profit was RMB 1 37 billion (-10 8% YoY) [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024 the company achieved revenue of RMB 17 87 billion (+9 6% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3 00 billion (-10 3% YoY) Adjusted net profit for the period was RMB 3 40 billion (+13 4% YoY) [1] - Domestic RevPAR ADR and occupancy rates in Q3 2024 were RMB 256 (-8 1% YoY) RMB 301 (-7 0% YoY) and 84 9% (-1 0 pct YoY) respectively International RevPAR ADR and occupancy rates were EUR 82 (+3 7% YoY) EUR 117 (+2 5% YoY) and 69 8% (+0 8 pct YoY) respectively [1] - The company accelerated its domestic hotel openings with 774 new hotels in Q3 2024 (a record high) and a net increase of 557 hotels bringing the total domestic hotel count to 10 707 By the end of Q3 2024 the company had opened 1 910 hotels domestically achieving 87% of its annual target of 2 200+ hotels [1] Financial Performance - Operating costs increased to 59 0% (+1 5 pct YoY) in Q3 2024 mainly due to rising labor costs (21 3% +2 4 pct YoY) Sales expenses were 4 7% (+0 1 pct YoY) and management expenses were 10 4% (+1 9 pct YoY) Net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 19 8% (-1 5 pct YoY) while adjusted net profit margin was 21 3% (-3 2 pct YoY) [2] - Revenue growth guidance for Q4 2024 is 1%-5% (regardless of DH inclusion) The report forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3 7 billion RMB 4 5 billion and RMB 5 0 billion for 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] Growth and Profitability - Revenue growth is projected at 7 9% 6 7% and 5 8% for 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 21 6% and 12 2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [3] - ROE is forecasted at 23 1% 21 8% and 19 5% for 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively [3] Valuation - The report values Huazhu Group at 24x PE for 2025 corresponding to a fair value of HKD 36 01 per share for the Hong Kong-listed stock and USD 46 28 per ADS for the US-listed stock [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongcheng Travel with a target price of HKD 20.18 per share, based on a 25-year 13X PE valuation [2][6] Core Views - Tongcheng Travel's 24Q3 GMV grew 2.4% YoY to RMB 72.8 billion, with revenue increasing 51.3% YoY to RMB 4.99 billion [1] - Adjusted net profit for 24Q3 rose 46.6% YoY to RMB 910 million, with an adjusted net margin of 18.2% [1] - 24Q3 adjusted EBITDA increased 51.6% YoY to RMB 1.32 billion, maintaining a 26.4% margin [1] - MPU grew 5% YoY to 46.4 million, while APU increased 3.4% YoY to 230 million, and ARPU surged 53.2% YoY [1] Business Segment Performance - Transportation ticketing revenue grew 20.6% YoY to RMB 2.03 billion in 24Q3 [2] - Accommodation booking revenue increased 22.2% YoY to RMB 1.38 billion in 24Q3 [2] Operational Highlights - Sales expense ratio decreased 9.1pp YoY to 29% in 24Q3, reflecting improved marketing efficiency [2] - International ticket volume grew over 110% YoY, and international hotel room nights increased over 130% YoY in 24Q3 [2] - Cross-selling rate improved to 12% [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow 44.2% YoY to RMB 17.2 billion in 2024, with further growth of 17.2% and 19.5% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to reach RMB 2.72 billion in 2024, growing 24.4% YoY, with continued growth of 22.6% and 20.5% in 2025 and 2026 [2] - Non-GAAP EPS is projected to increase from RMB 1.21 in 2024 to RMB 1.78 in 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of HKD 196.00 and a reasonable value of HKD 205.82 [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the approval of SKB264 as the first domestically developed original drug for treating advanced or metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) marks a significant milestone in the company's development process [2]. - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 16.55 billion, RMB 18.06 billion, RMB 24.23 billion for the years 2024 to 2026 respectively [2]. - The report emphasizes the successful progress of the company's drug pipeline, particularly in the TROP2 ADC platform, which is anticipated to drive revenue growth [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has made significant advancements in its drug development pipeline, particularly with SKB264, which has received approval for treating advanced or metastatic TNBC [2]. - The report notes that the company has successfully submitted two New Drug Applications (NDA) for EGFR-TKI in China, indicating a strong domestic market presence [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2022 was RMB 804 million, with a projected increase to RMB 1.54 billion in 2023, and further growth to RMB 1.655 billion and RMB 1.806 billion in 2024 and 2025 respectively [4]. - The report forecasts a significant growth rate of 2,387.3% in 2022, followed by 91.6% in 2023, and a more moderate growth rate of 7.4% in 2024 [4]. Profitability Metrics - The report indicates that the company is currently operating at a loss, with a projected net profit of -RMB 728 million in 2024 and -RMB 919 million in 2025 [4]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 65.6% in 2022 to 71.3% by 2026, reflecting better operational efficiency [4]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic TROP2 ADC market, with expectations for significant market share growth as new drugs are launched [2]. - The report suggests that the company’s innovative drug pipeline and successful clinical trials will enhance its competitive edge in the biopharmaceutical industry [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 7.03, indicating a potential upside of 26.6% from the current price of HKD 5.55 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with significant growth in the natural gas business, despite a decline in oil sales revenue due to fluctuating oil prices [2][4]. - The oil and new energy segments showed a year-on-year production increase of 2.1%, with total oil equivalent production reaching 1443 million barrels [2][4]. - The refining segment experienced a profit decrease, while the chemical segment showed profit growth, indicating a mixed performance across different business units [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 702.41 billion, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 132.52 billion, an increase of 0.7% year-on-year [2][4]. - The average crude oil price for the first three quarters was USD 76.88 per barrel, with natural gas sales volume reaching 1629.6 billion cubic meters, reflecting a 30% increase in operating profit for the natural gas segment [2][4]. - The company’s refining throughput was 1036.2 million barrels, with gasoline production decreasing by 2.7% to 8990 million tons, while kerosene production saw a significant increase [2][4]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The forecasted revenues for 2024-2026 are RMB 3.10 trillion, RMB 3.11 trillion, and RMB 3.16 trillion respectively, with net profits projected at RMB 180.1 billion and RMB 186.0 billion for the same period [2][4]. - The report anticipates a net profit growth rate of 7 times PE for the years 2024-2026, supporting the bullish outlook on the company's stock [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 23.95, indicating a potential upside of 40.7% from the current price [4]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth, achieving Q3 revenue of CNY 467 million, a year-on-year increase of 34.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.6%. Cumulatively, revenue for the first three quarters grew by 57.1% [1]. - Cost control measures have led to a notable reduction in losses, with Q3 net loss narrowing by 32.6% to CNY 291 million. The gross margin for Q3 improved to 82.1%, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [1]. - The company is focusing resources on key pipelines, with several clinical trials progressing well, including the completion of patient enrollment for various Phase III trials [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a cash and cash equivalents balance of CNY 1.12 billion as of September 30, with a loan credit line of CNY 2.8 billion [1]. - The sales revenue for the product 泰它西普 reached approximately CNY 270 million in Q3, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 43% [2]. - The projected revenues for the company for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are CNY 1.624 billion, CNY 2.411 billion, and CNY 3.243 billion, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to see continuous growth driven by its dual business segments, with significant contributions from home decoration and rental services [2]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 reached 73.68 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [2]. - The company’s total transaction volume increased by 26.8%, indicating strong market performance [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for Q3 2024 was 62 billion RMB, stable compared to the previous year, with a net income of 77 billion RMB, up 30.9% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for the period was 22.7%, a decrease attributed to rising fixed salary costs and a decline in the profit margin from existing home sales [2]. - The adjusted net profit for the year is projected to be 80 billion RMB, 96 billion RMB, and 109 billion RMB for the next three years, respectively [2]. Business Segment Analysis - The existing home business saw a decline in profit margin, while the new home business outperformed expectations, with transaction volume reaching 4,778 billion RMB, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year [2]. - The new home business generated a transaction fee rate of 3.4%, achieving a historical high, with commission income from state-owned developers rising to 58% [2]. - Revenue from home decoration and rental services grew by 62.0% year-on-year, contributing to 35.8% of total revenue, marking a historical high [2]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from recent policy adjustments in real estate credit and transaction taxes, which are likely to lead to significant growth in overall transaction volume [2]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 66.9 HKD / 25.6 USD, based on a projected PE ratio of 15 times for 2025 [2].

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - 2024Q3 revenue met market expectations, while adjusted net profit fell short of expectations [2] - Advertising business remains under pressure, but generative AI continues to transform the ecosystem [3] - Non-advertising business: Generative AI drives growth in cloud computing [4] - Increased customer acquisition and cloud-related costs were partially offset by expense control [5] Financial Performance - 2024Q3 revenue was RMB 33.6 billion, down 3% YoY, in line with Bloomberg consensus [2] - Non-GAAP operating profit was RMB 7 billion, down 8% YoY, below Bloomberg consensus [2] - Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 5.9 billion, down 19% YoY, below Bloomberg consensus [2] - Share repurchase amount since 2024Q3 was USD 161 million, with cumulative repurchase under the 2023 plan reaching approximately USD 1.4 billion [2] Advertising Business - 2024Q3 Baidu Core revenue was RMB 26.5 billion, flat YoY, in line with Bloomberg consensus [3] - Online marketing revenue was RMB 18.8 billion, down 4% YoY [3] - Over 20% of search results now include generative AI content, up from 18% in Q2 [3] - Advertising business is expected to remain weak in Q4, but generative AI is expected to have a positive impact in the medium to long term [3] Non-Advertising Business - Cloud revenue grew 11% YoY in 2024Q3, driven by generative AI [4] - Daily API calls for the Wenxin series models reached 1.5 billion in November 2024, up from 600 million in August [4] - AI accounted for 11% of cloud revenue in 2024Q3, up from 4.8% in 23Q4 [4] - Autonomous driving service "Luobo Kuaipao" provided 988,000 orders in Q3, up 20% YoY [4] - Fully autonomous orders accounted for over 70% of total orders nationwide, increasing to 80% in October 2024 [4] Cost and Expense Management - Baidu Core non-GAAP gross margin was 59.1% in 2024Q3, down 1.4 percentage points YoY [5] - Baidu Core non-GAAP sales and administrative expenses were RMB 4.7 billion, accounting for 17.8% of Baidu Core revenue, up 0.8 percentage points YoY [5] - Baidu Core non-GAAP R&D expenses were RMB 4.3 billion, accounting for 16.4% of Baidu Core revenue, down 2.1 percentage points YoY [5] Financial Forecasts - 2024E revenue is forecasted at RMB 132.4 billion, down 1.67% YoY [1] - 2024E net profit attributable to parent company is forecasted at RMB 24.4 billion, up 20.17% YoY [1] - 2024E Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted at RMB 27.1 billion, down 5.78% YoY [1] - 2024E EPS is forecasted at RMB 8.70, with a P/E ratio of 8.60 [1] Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 80.45 [8] - 52-week low/high (HKD): 75.20/119.90 [8] - Price-to-book ratio: 0.87 [8] - Market capitalization (HKD million): 183,461.35 [8] Key Financial Ratios - 2024E Non-GAAP EPS (RMB): 8.70 [18] - 2024E ROE: 9.13% [18] - 2024E gross margin: 50.16% [18] - 2024E net profit margin: 18.45% [18] - 2024E debt-to-asset ratio: 31.84% [18]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [2][7][9] Core Views - Balanced growth in revenue and profit driven by rapid growth in scattered and reverse parcels [2][8] - Optimized unit costs through efficient route planning and improved loading rates [3][8] - Market share increased to 20.0% in 2024Q3, up 0.4 percentage points sequentially [3][9] Financial Performance - 2024Q3 revenue reached RMB 10.7 billion, up 17.6% YoY [2][8] - Express service revenue grew 18.1% YoY, accounting for 91.9% of total revenue [2][8] - Freight forwarding and material sales grew 0.8% and 27.6% YoY respectively [2][8] - 2024Q3 net profit reached RMB 2.38 billion, up 1.3% YoY [3][8] - 2024Q3 gross margin improved to 31.2%, up 1.4 percentage points YoY [3][8] - Operating margin slightly decreased to 26.6%, down 0.1 percentage points YoY [3][8] Operational Highlights - Parcel volume in 2024Q3 reached 8.72 billion, up 15.9% YoY [2][8] - Unit transportation cost decreased by 9.7% YoY [3][8] - Unit sorting center operating cost decreased by 6.4% YoY [3][8] - Direct customer business revenue (including delivery fees) surged 122.1% YoY [2][8] - Scattered parcels grew over 40% YoY [2][8] Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 151.9 [4] - Total shares outstanding: 810 million [4] - Market capitalization: HKD 123.1 billion [4] - Net assets attributable to parent company: RMB 60.6 billion [4] - Total assets: RMB 93.3 billion [4] - Net asset per share: RMB 74.8 [4] Financial Projections - 2024E revenue: RMB 43.24 billion, up 12.5% YoY [6] - 2024E net profit attributable to parent: RMB 9.503 billion, up 8.6% YoY [6][7] - 2025E net profit attributable to parent: RMB 11.124 billion, up 17.1% YoY [6][7] - 2026E net profit attributable to parent: RMB 12.519 billion, up 12.5% YoY [6][7] - 2024E-2026E EPS: RMB 11.88/13.91/15.66 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting optimism about its growth prospects, particularly in high-end smartphones, IoT, and automotive sectors [2][5] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 92.5 billion (YoY +30.5%, QoQ +4.1%) and net profit of RMB 5.34 billion (YoY +9.7%, QoQ +5.3%) [1] - The smartphone business achieved revenue of RMB 47.45 billion (YoY +13.9%, QoQ +2.0%) with a gross margin of 11.7%, driven by higher ASPs due to increased high-end smartphone sales [1] - IoT and lifestyle products revenue grew to RMB 26.10 billion (YoY +26.3%), with strong growth in major appliances, tablets, and wearables [1] - The smart electric vehicle business reported revenue of RMB 8.04 billion (QoQ +49.1%) with a gross margin of 17.1%, delivering 39,800 vehicles in Q3 and targeting 130,000 units for the full year [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 355.7 billion in 2024 to RMB 515.8 billion in 2026, with net profit expected to increase from RMB 19.9 billion to RMB 32.1 billion over the same period [1] - The company's EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.78 in 2024 to RMB 1.26 in 2026, with a P/E ratio declining from 34.1x to 21.0x [1][5] Business Highlights - The smartphone segment is on track to achieve its annual shipment target of 170 million units, with flagship models performing exceptionally well [1] - IoT and lifestyle products, particularly major appliances, are expected to grow by 50% YoY in 2024 [1] - The automotive business is gaining momentum, with 100,000 vehicles delivered by November 2024 and a full-year target of 130,000 units [1]