Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (0388.HK) [6][8]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Hong Kong Exchanges has the basic conditions for recovery in capital market system construction and innovation, supported by a series of mutual access policies. It anticipates that the liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market will gradually increase, leading to a recovery in overall market activity and valuation [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue and other income of HKD 15.993 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.13%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 9.270 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [4][5]. - In Q3 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6.50% quarter-on-quarter, while it slightly decreased by 0.32% year-on-year [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from trading and trading system usage fees, listing fees, settlement and clearing fees, custody and agency services fees, market data fees, and net investment income showed varying growth rates. The growth rates for these segments were +6.48%, -6.07%, +6.92%, -1.11%, -1.47%, and -4.09% respectively [4][5]. Market Activity - The average daily trading volume in the cash market increased by 5.3% year-on-year, while the average daily trading volume for the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect rose by 14.0% year-on-year, contributing to a 6.92% increase in settlement fee income [5]. - The average daily trading volume in the commodity market saw a significant increase of 25.0%, leading to a 39.1% growth in trading fees and system usage fees for the commodity segment [5]. Future Projections - The report projects that the company will achieve revenue and other income of HKD 22.447 billion, HKD 26.037 billion, and HKD 29.484 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be HKD 13.371 billion, HKD 16.270 billion, and HKD 18.262 billion for the same years, with corresponding PE ratios of 29.55, 24.28, and 21.63 [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, with a target price of HKD 1.77, indicating a potential upside of 3.5% from the current price of HKD 1.71 [5][8]. Core Insights - The company has experienced a slight narrowing of losses in Q3 2024, with a net loss of RMB 1.492 billion, down from RMB 2.971 billion in the first three quarters, primarily due to reduced inventory impairment [1]. - The report highlights that supply-side reforms are expected to accelerate the clearing of polysilicon supply, which could enhance the company's market position due to its low electricity consumption advantage [2]. - The company is projected to become the first in the industry to achieve cash profitability in polysilicon production by Q1 2025, as cash costs are expected to drop below RMB 30,000 per ton [1][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is forecasted to decline significantly in 2024 to RMB 16.169 billion, a 52% decrease year-on-year, before recovering in subsequent years [4]. - The average selling price of granular silicon is expected to rise to RMB 55,000 per ton by 2026, with a gradual increase in market share from 14% in 2024 to 22% by 2026 [3][6]. - The company’s production capacity is anticipated to reach 280,000 tons in 2024, with a projected increase to 456,600 tons by 2026 [6]. Valuation Adjustments - The valuation benchmark for the polysilicon segment has been raised from RMB 7 billion to RMB 10 billion per ton of capacity, reflecting increased visibility of profit recovery in 2025-2026 [3][7]. - The target price adjustment from HKD 1.31 to HKD 1.77 is based on the anticipated recovery in profitability and market conditions [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Great Wall Motors (2333 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 17.36, indicating a potential upside of 20.7% from the current closing price of HKD 14.38 [3][5]. Core Insights - The third quarter net profit of Great Wall Motors declined due to foreign exchange losses, but the overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 19.0% year-on-year to RMB 142.25 billion, with a significant rise in net profit by 108.8% to RMB 10.43 billion [1][2]. - The company has optimized its export structure, with overseas sales growing by 53.2% year-on-year, contributing to a 7.5% share of China's automotive exports, ranking fourth in the market [2][3]. - The report projects a 5.1% and 13% increase in earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025, respectively, reflecting the positive impact of higher export sales [3][4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the projected revenue is RMB 202.19 billion, representing a 16.7% year-on-year growth, while net profit is expected to reach RMB 12.41 billion, a 76.8% increase [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 1.45, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.1 times [4][10]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 20.1% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 6.1% [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Lenovo Group (00992 HK) [2] Core Views - Lenovo is a global leader in "New IT" technology, with a comprehensive product portfolio spanning "device-edge-cloud-network-intelligence" [2] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery of the PC market and the commercialization of AI PCs in 2024 [2] - AI-driven demand is expected to drive growth in both the IT hardware and software markets, with Lenovo's server and IT services businesses poised for expansion [2] - The shift from x86 to Arm architecture in AI PCs is expected to boost Lenovo's profitability [2] PC Market Recovery and AI PC Opportunities - The PC market is showing signs of recovery as inventory adjustments near completion, with global PC shipments expected to grow in 2024 [2] - 2024 is considered the first year of AI PC commercialization, with products featuring core AI capabilities being launched [2] - IDC predicts that AI PC sales in the consumer market will reach 130 8 billion by 2027, while the enterprise market will reach 100 9 billion [2] - Lenovo is among the first companies to enter the AI On phase, offering diverse and cost-effective AI PC options [2] AI-Driven IT Hardware and Software Expansion - The rise of AI applications, such as AIGC and large model training, is driving rapid growth in the AI server market [2] - Lenovo has launched the Lenovo Wentian server for the Chinese market, complementing its ThinkSystem brand with a dual-brand strategy [2] - Global IT spending is projected to reach 5 trillion in 2024, with IT services becoming the largest spending category for the first time [2] - Lenovo's TruScale service focuses on the "as-a-service" business model, offering solutions to facilitate AI commercialization [2] Arm Architecture and Profit Growth - The Arm architecture is gaining traction due to its low power consumption, addressing battery life concerns in AI PCs [2] - AI PCs based on Arm architecture offer advantages in energy efficiency, customization, integration, and flexibility, potentially replacing x86 as the mainstream choice [2] - Lenovo's Arm-based AI PCs are expected to drive higher profit margins due to cost advantages [2] Financial Projections and Valuation - Lenovo is expected to benefit from the recovery in global PC shipments, the commercialization of AI PCs, and the rapid growth of the AI industry [2] - Revenue for FY25/26/27 is projected at 62 33/67 61/72 14 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 1 29/1 64/1 90 billion [2] - The company's valuation is supported by its leadership in the global PC and IT infrastructure solutions market [2] Industry Trends and Competitive Landscape - The PC market is recovering from a downturn caused by pandemic-driven demand shifts, with AI PCs expected to drive a new wave of growth [2] - Major PC manufacturers, including Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer, Apple, and Asus, are actively launching AI PC products, intensifying competition [2] - Lenovo is a pioneer in the AI PC market, having entered the AI On phase ahead of competitors and offering a wide range of AI-enabled devices [2] Lenovo's AI PC Strategy - Lenovo has adopted a "four-end integration" strategy, focusing on AI PCs, AI tablets, AI phones, and AIoT devices [2] - The company's AI PCs feature embedded personal large models, local heterogeneous AI computing power, and robust data privacy protection [2] - Lenovo's AI PCs are competitively priced, with options starting at around 6000 RMB, catering to a wide range of consumer needs [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 9.41 per share, based on a 15x PE for 2024 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company is entering a growth phase, benefiting from both LNG and hydrogen equipment as key areas. The energy transition presents dual opportunities in natural gas and hydrogen equipment, with LNG capturing current demand and hydrogen positioning for future growth [1]. - The LNG industry is in a continuous expansion phase, with the company positioned as a leading provider of storage and transportation equipment, benefiting from rising global LNG trade, which grew by 2.1% in 2023 [1]. - The hydrogen business is expected to unlock significant growth potential, driven by policy support and economic viability, with the company holding over 40% market share in high-pressure hydrogen transport and storage [1]. - The chemical equipment and liquid food sectors are also experiencing steady growth, with the company maintaining a leading global market share in tank containers [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Clean Energy Equipment Leadership - The company is a leader in clean energy, chemical tank containers, and liquid food sectors, leveraging acquisitions to build an integrated business model [9]. - The clean energy segment shows strong momentum, with significant cash dividends [12]. 2. LNG Industry Expansion - The LNG industry is in an expansion cycle, increasing demand for storage, transportation, and usage equipment [22]. - Geopolitical conflicts have shifted trade structures, boosting demand for LNG shipping and related equipment [1]. - The company is a leader in multiple LNG storage and transportation segments, benefiting from the industry's upward cycle [1]. 3. Hydrogen Business Outlook - The hydrogen sector is poised for rapid growth, with increasing policy support and cost reductions driving demand for hydrogen storage and transportation solutions [1]. - The company is well-positioned in the hydrogen market, with a robust order book and significant market share [1]. 4. Chemical Equipment and Liquid Food - The chemical equipment and liquid food sectors are experiencing stable growth, with the company holding the top global market share in tank containers [1]. - The liquid food segment is expanding steadily, supported by a strong brand presence and strategic diversification [1]. 5. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.17 billion, 1.46 billion, and 1.74 billion HKD for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 10.85, 8.72, and 7.29 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.971 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, with granular silicon production and shipment volumes of 198,300 tons and 207,300 tons, respectively [2][3]. - Despite a decrease in the selling price of granular silicon, the company has successfully reduced production cash costs through continuous technological improvements, achieving a cash cost of 33.18 yuan/kg in Q3 2024, down 5.71% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company has achieved a global record in carbon footprint management, with its granular silicon production emitting only 24.913 kg of CO2 equivalent per kg of product, benefiting from 100% clean energy usage [4]. - The company is expanding its overseas granular silicon production capacity and exploring new profit growth opportunities in silane gas, with a partnership established for developing a polysilicon production facility in the UAE [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a net profit of -2.971 billion yuan, with a granular silicon production volume of 198,300 tons and a shipment volume of 207,300 tons [2][3]. - In Q3 2024, the granular silicon production and shipment volumes were 62,000 tons and 80,900 tons, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 15.67% and 19.67% [3]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 35.93 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of -2.158 billion yuan for 2024, followed by 1.441 billion yuan in 2025 and 2.689 billion yuan in 2026 [6][9]. Production and Cost Management - The company has focused on optimizing production processes, leading to a steady decline in cash production costs, which are expected to reach below 30 yuan/kg in the near future [3]. - The average selling price of granular silicon in Q3 2024 was 32.75 yuan/kg, reflecting a 7.80% decrease quarter-on-quarter [3]. Environmental and Technological Advancements - The company has received carbon footprint certification from ADEME, highlighting its commitment to sustainability and low carbon emissions in its production processes [4]. - The company is a leader in the research and production of high-purity silane gas, with its production capacity ranking first globally and meeting electronic-grade requirements [5].

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------| | 周大福（ 01929 ） | | 证券研究报告 \n2024 年 10 月 28 日 | | | 投资评级 | | | 期待下半财年表现改善 | 行业 | 非必需性消费 / 专业零 售 | | | 6 | 个月评级 买入（维 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, Tuhu Car, with a target price of HKD 27.59, representing a potential upside from the current price of HKD 21.25 [7][88]. Core Insights - Tuhu Car has established itself as a leading player in the automotive after-service market in China, leveraging an O2O (Online to Offline) model to integrate online and offline services, which has facilitated rapid expansion and a significant user base [1][4][15]. - The company has shown strong growth in user numbers and service offerings, with over 63 million registered users and more than 6,300 service outlets across the country, indicating a robust market presence [2][3][4]. - The automotive after-service market in China is projected to grow significantly, driven by increasing vehicle ownership and the rising average age of vehicles, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.1% from 2018 to 2022 [5][35][38]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tuhu Car was founded in 2011 and has evolved from tire sales to a comprehensive automotive service platform, launching its app in 2014 and expanding its service offerings significantly over the years [1][15][18]. - The company has adopted a light-asset franchise model, allowing for rapid store expansion, particularly in lower-tier cities, where it has achieved a coverage rate of nearly 65% in areas with over 20,000 passenger vehicles [3][4][15]. Market Position and Growth - Tuhu Car's service network has expanded rapidly, with over 400 new stores opened in the first half of 2024, and a daily service turnover rate of 2.2 per workstation, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.1 [2][3][4]. - The company has a strong focus on self-owned and controlled products, which accounted for 25.9% of its automotive product and service revenue in 2023, contributing to higher gross margins [2][4][24]. Financial Performance - Tuhu Car's revenue has shown a steady increase, reaching RMB 136 billion in 2023, with projections of RMB 146 billion, RMB 160 billion, and RMB 176 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][88]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to grow significantly, from RMB 7.33 billion in 2024 to RMB 15.30 billion by 2026, reflecting a strong upward trend in profitability [4][88]. Competitive Landscape - The automotive after-service market in China is highly fragmented, with Tuhu Car leading the way amidst increasing competition from internet giants like JD.com and Alibaba, which are also expanding their automotive service offerings [4][70][74]. - Tuhu Car's competitive advantages include its extensive store network, strong brand recognition, and effective supply chain management, which enhance its pricing power and service quality [4][74][80]. Future Outlook - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the automotive after-service market, particularly in the context of increasing vehicle ownership and the shift towards electric vehicles, which will require specialized maintenance services [5][35][38]. - Tuhu Car's strategic focus on expanding its service network and enhancing user experience through technology and digital platforms positions it well for future growth in this evolving market [4][63][72].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded to "Accumulate" from "Buy" [2][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 increased by 10.4% year-on-year, driven primarily by a 28.1% increase in the clean energy segment, which reached 4.72 billion RMB [1]. - New order intake for Q3 2024 decreased by 38.5% year-on-year to 4.36 billion RMB, with the clean energy segment seeing a 39.1% decline [2]. - Despite the decline in new orders, the total order backlog increased by 25.2% year-on-year to 27.73 billion RMB, indicating strong future business support [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 6.49 billion RMB, up 10.4% year-on-year, with the clean energy segment contributing significantly [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue grew by 8.0% year-on-year to 17.97 billion RMB, while clean energy revenue rose by 26.2% to 12.60 billion RMB [1]. Order Intake and Backlog - New orders for Q3 2024 fell to 4.36 billion RMB, a 38.5% decrease year-on-year, with clean energy orders down 39.1% [2]. - The total new order intake for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 5.1% year-on-year to 20.76 billion RMB, supported by a 22.1% rise in clean energy orders [2]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The net profit forecasts for FY24-26 have been reduced by 2.9%, 4.5%, and 10.8% respectively, with projected net profits of 1.12 billion RMB, 1.34 billion RMB, and 1.52 billion RMB [2]. - The target price has been adjusted from 7.90 HKD to 7.55 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 10.8% based on the FY25 target P/E ratio of 10.5x [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for CIMC Enric (3899 HK) with a target price of **HKD 8.45**, representing a potential upside of **24.1%** [6] Core Views - CIMC Enric's Q3 2024 revenue increased by **10% YoY to RMB 6.49 billion**, driven by strong growth in the clean energy segment, which saw a **28% YoY increase to RMB 4.72 billion** [1] - The company's total revenue for the first nine months of 2024 grew by **8% YoY**, with the clean energy segment contributing a **26% YoY increase** [1] - The clean energy segment's growth was primarily fueled by the delivery of **3 vessels (1 LNG bunkering vessel + 2 LEG carriers)** in Q3, bringing the total deliveries to **7 vessels** by the end of October 2024 [1] - Despite a **14% YoY decline in hydrogen product revenue** in Q3, the clean energy segment's backlog increased by **43% YoY**, although the growth rate slowed compared to the **70-71% YoY increase** in Q1-Q2 2024 [1] Segment Performance Clean Energy - Q3 2024 clean energy revenue reached **RMB 4.72 billion**, up **28% YoY**, with offshore clean energy revenue surging **74.6% YoY** [1] - Hydrogen product revenue declined by **14% YoY** in Q3, with the backlog for hydrogen products dropping **24% YoY to RMB 320 million** [1] - The clean energy backlog stood at **RMB 15.51 billion** in Q3, up **43% YoY** [1] Chemical & Liquid Food - Chemical equipment revenue in Q3 2024 fell **25% YoY**, with new orders growing **31% QoQ** but still down **26% YoY** [2] - Liquid food equipment revenue declined **13% YoY** in Q3, with the backlog down **14% YoY** [2] - Management cited cautious capital expenditure from overseas clients and uncertain global consumption growth as key challenges for these segments [2] Order Backlog - Total backlog at the end of Q3 2024 was **RMB 27.7 billion**, up **25% YoY** but down **6% QoQ** [1] - Clean energy equipment backlog reached **RMB 15.51 billion**, while chemical and liquid food equipment backlogs stood at **RMB 1.44 billion** and **RMB 5.21 billion**, respectively [4] Management Guidance - Management maintained its 2024 full-year revenue growth guidance of **>10% YoY** and core profit growth in the **single-digit range** [2] - The hydrogen product revenue target for 2024 remains unchanged at **RMB 900 million** [2] - A delayed South American liquid food project is expected to be delivered in **2025** [2]