Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a projected 2025 PE ratio of 6x [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue and profit growth of 19% and 20% respectively in 2024, driven by product and channel optimization [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach RMB 1.158 billion in 2024, RMB 1.362 billion in 2025, and RMB 1.580 billion in 2026 [1] - The company's performance growth is impressive, supported by its leading position in the sportswear industry [1] Business Performance Adult Business - Adult offline channel sales grew by approximately 10% in Q4 2024 [7] - The company optimized its offline store structure, with the number of adult stores increasing by 98 to 5,740 in H1 2024 [7] - The proportion of 9th-generation stores increased by 9.5 percentage points to 74% by the end of 2024 [7] Children's Business - Children's offline sales grew by 10%-15% YoY in Q4 2024, outperforming the adult segment [3] - The average store size for children's stores increased by 5㎡ to 108㎡ in H1 2024 [3] - The proportion of department stores in children's channels rose by 1.2 percentage points to 58.5% by the end of 2024 [3] E-commerce Business - E-commerce sales grew by 30%-35% YoY in Q4 2024, with strong performance during the "Double 11" shopping festival [3] - Sales of the Feiran series increased by 59% during the "Double 11" period, with over 300,000 pairs of running shoes sold across all channels [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 8.423 billion in 2023 to RMB 13.354 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 15.1% [11] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from RMB 961 million in 2023 to RMB 1.580 billion in 2026 [11] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 10.7% in 2023 to 12.1% in 2026 [11] Valuation - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 7.9x in 2023 to 4.8x in 2026 [11] - The P/B ratio is projected to decrease from 0.8x in 2023 to 0.5x in 2026 [11] - EV/EBITDA is forecasted to drop from 3.6x in 2023 to 0.9x in 2026 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 7, based on a 12x PE valuation for 2025 [2][3] Core Views - The company's main brand, Xtep, showed steady growth in Q4 2024, with retail sales increasing by high single digits year-over-year and retail discount levels improving to 70-75% off, compared to 75% off in Q3 2024 [5] - The Saucony brand continued its strong growth trajectory, with retail sales increasing by approximately 50% year-over-year in Q4 2024 and over 60% for the full year [5] - Xtep achieved the highest wear rate among global running shoes at the 2024 Shanghai Marathon, solidifying its leadership in the running market [5] - The company expects steady growth for its main brand and high growth for Saucony, which is anticipated to form a second growth curve [5] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 14,035 million, a slight decline of 2.2% year-over-year, but growth is expected to resume in 2025E and 2026E with increases of 9.8% and 10.0%, respectively [5] - Operating profit for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 1,879 million, an 18.9% increase year-over-year, with further growth expected in 2025E and 2026E [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 21.8% in 2024E, reaching RMB 1,255 million, with continued growth in subsequent years [5] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 42.2% in 2023A to 45.6% in 2026E, reflecting better profitability [5] Valuation and Market Performance - The company's HKD market capitalization is HKD 15,216 million as of January 14, 2025, with a total of 268,365 million shares outstanding [3] - The stock's 52-week high and low prices are HKD 7.13 and HKD 3.19, respectively, with a current price of HKD 5.67 as of January 14, 2025 [3] - The stock has shown strong relative performance, with a 12-month absolute return of 50.16%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 31.84% [3] Industry Comparison - The company's 2025E PE ratio of 8.4x is lower than industry peers such as Anta (15x) and Li Ning (10x), indicating potential undervaluation [7] - The adjusted average PE ratio for the industry is 12x for 2025E, suggesting that the company's valuation is relatively attractive [7] Strategic Developments - The company has successfully divested its KP business, which is expected to improve overall profitability [5] - Saucony expanded its retail presence with new concept stores in Beijing and Shanghai, further enhancing its brand image and market reach [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 361 Degrees (01361 HK) [1][4] Core Views - 361 Degrees continues to focus on the mass market with a product matrix that offers quality-price advantages [1] - Despite a weak domestic consumption environment, the company's Q4 2024 sales growth remains robust and ahead of peers [1] - Positive feedback from the first three quarters of 2025 order meetings supports the growth outlook [1] Financial Performance - Q4 2024 sales growth: Main brand offline sales grew by approximately 10%, kids' offline sales by 10%-15%, and e-commerce sales by 30%-35% [1] - Discounts in Q4 2024 remained stable at 7-7 3折 [1] - Inventory turnover ratio in Q4 2024 was 4 5-5 times, with 80% of inventory aged within 180 days, indicating a healthy inventory structure [1] Product and Channel Strategy - The company emphasizes technology-driven product innovation, launching new products such as the JOKER1 signature shoe and the FLOAT2 running shoe [1] - E-commerce channel saw strong growth, with 80% of products being new, benefiting from the Double 11 shopping festival [1] - Offline stores introduced new formats, with main brand store efficiency reaching 2-2 5 million RMB and kids' store efficiency at 1-1 3 million RMB [1] Financial Forecasts - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 1 131, 1 329, and 1 548 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7x, 6x, and 5x [1] - Revenue growth is expected to be 17 72% in 2024, 15 77% in 2025, and 15 40% in 2026 [4] - Net profit growth is projected at 17 67% in 2024, 17 51% in 2025, and 16 41% in 2026 [4] Key Financial Ratios - ROE is expected to increase from 10 59% in 2023 to 11 82% in 2026 [2] - Gross margin remains stable at around 41% from 2023 to 2026 [2] - Net profit margin is forecasted to be 11 41% in 2023, slightly increasing to 11 64% by 2026 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Pictures (1060.HK), reflecting an upward adjustment in valuation due to favorable market conditions and potential growth in IP licensing revenue [4]. Core Insights - Alibaba Pictures' IP licensing platform, Aliyu, is positioned to benefit from the expansion of IPs like Blokko, which recently went public and saw a significant first-day increase of over 40% [1]. - Aliyu's sales surged to $2.75 billion in 2023, a remarkable increase from $430 million in 2022, marking a 540% growth and elevating its ranking among global licensing agents to 11th place [2]. - The Chinese brand licensing market is growing steadily, with a retail sales figure of 140.1 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 0.8% year-on-year increase [2]. - Blokko, a leading player in the building block toy market, is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41% from 2023 to 2028, indicating strong market potential [3]. - The report highlights that Blokko's revenue is heavily reliant on a few key IPs, with Ultraman contributing 57.4% of its revenue in the first half of 2024, prompting the company to diversify its product offerings [3]. Financial Summary - For FY2023, Alibaba Pictures reported a revenue of 3,501 million yuan, with projections of 5,036 million yuan for FY2024 and 5,953 million yuan for FY2025, indicating a growth rate of 43.9% and 18.2% respectively [4]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive in FY2024 with a forecast of 285 million yuan, increasing to 531 million yuan by FY2025 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from -0.01 yuan in FY2023 to 0.02 yuan in FY2025, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 86 million yuan in H2 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 30%, and a net profit of 0.69 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100% [7] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 155 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25%, and a net profit of 1.35 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 167% [7] - The company benefits from an increase in cooperative clients and maintains a competitive advantage in the KA same-city delivery business, which is expected to grow by 30% year-on-year in H2 2024 [7] - The last-mile delivery service is anticipated to see a 30% year-on-year revenue growth in H2 2024, driven by increased collaboration with major clients and enhanced service penetration [7] - The company is expanding into lower-tier markets, with county-level revenue growing by 51% year-on-year in H1 2024, and has entered the Hong Kong market under the "SoFast" brand [7] - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 1.35 million yuan, 2.73 million yuan, and 4.53 million yuan respectively, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 10,266 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 25.57%, and is projected to reach 22,130 million yuan by 2026 [1] - The company reported a net profit of (286.90) million yuan in 2022, expected to turn positive with 50.60 million yuan in 2023 and grow to 452.75 million yuan by 2026 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to increase from (0.31) yuan in 2022 to 0.49 yuan in 2026 [1] - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 148.28 in 2023 to 16.57 by 2026, indicating improved profitability [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - The company reported FY2025 Q3 retail data, showing a slight decline in retail sales year-on-year, which was better than expected [2][4]. - The retail trend is improving, with inventory clearance continuing. Q3 retail sales showed a low single-digit decline year-on-year, with significant improvement compared to Q2's low double-digit decline [7]. - The number of stores is at a low point, but it is expected to stabilize next year. The number of stores continued to decline at the end of Q3, with ongoing closures of inefficient stores from brands like Nike and Adidas [7]. - Nike has simplified its product line and is focusing on professional sports, which is expected to enhance its market position [7]. - The company's performance and valuation are at a low point, with a current dividend yield of approximately 8%, indicating absolute return value [7]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Q3 retail sales showed a low single-digit decline year-on-year, which was better than expectations [2][4]. - Inventory clearance is ongoing, with discounts deepening year-on-year, but inventory adjustments are in line with company expectations [7]. Store Count and Market Strategy - The number of stores is expected to stabilize next year after a period of decline due to store closures and restructuring [7]. - Nike's new CEO has introduced a simplified product line and is focusing on strengthening distributor relationships, particularly in the Greater China market [7]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits for FY2025 to FY2027 at 1.389 billion, 1.660 billion, and 1.880 billion respectively, with corresponding valuations of 12X, 10X, and 9X [9]. - The expected dividend yields for FY2025 and FY2026 are approximately 8% and 10% respectively, highlighting the company's high dividend elasticity [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's main brand has shown strong revenue growth, with a focus on high-performance running shoes driving this increase. The operational metrics remain stable, and revenue is expected to continue growing steadily. The subsidiary brand, Saucony, has also experienced significant growth, with a projected revenue increase of over 60% for the year [5][6][7]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024E: 13,925 million - 2025E: 15,326 million - 2026E: 16,755 million - Year-over-year growth rates for revenue are expected to be -2.9% in 2024, followed by 10.1% in 2025 and 9.3% in 2026 [8]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2024E: 1,239 million - 2025E: 1,398 million - 2026E: 1,573 million - The projected P/E ratios are 11.0 for 2024, 9.8 for 2025, and 8.7 for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation trend [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to Anta Sports (2020 HK) with a target price of HKD 104.28, implying a potential upside of **33.5%** from the current price of HKD 78.10 [1][13] Core Views - Anta Sports' multi-brand strategy continues to receive positive market feedback, with the company maintaining a strong outlook for long-term growth [13] - The report slightly lowers the financial forecasts for 2024-2026 due to uncertainties in the consumer environment, adjusting the target price to HKD 104.28, based on 22x 2025 P/E [13] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 53,651 million in 2022 to RMB 80,152 million in 2026, with a CAGR of **9.5%** [3] - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 7,590 million in 2022 to RMB 14,778 million in 2026, with a CAGR of **18.1%** [3] - EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 2.73 in 2022 to RMB 4.94 in 2026, with a CAGR of **16.1%** [3] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with net cash positions from 2024 to 2026 [6] Operational Highlights - In Q4 2024, Anta brand retail sales grew by high single digits, FILA by high single digits, and other brands by **50-55%** [13] - For the full year 2024, Anta brand/FILA/other brands retail sales grew by high single digits/mid single digits/**40-45%**, respectively [13] - Anta brand's offline retail discount remained stable at 72%, while online discounts improved by 1 percentage point year-on-year [13] - FILA brand's discount rate remained stable at 74-75%, with growth in its mainline, kids, and fashion segments [13] - Other brands, including Kolon and Descente, exceeded expectations with combined sales exceeding RMB 10 billion, growing by **60-65%** and **45-50%**, respectively [13] Strategic Initiatives - Anta is actively expanding its overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, and plans to enter the Middle East in 2025, with a potential direct store opening in Los Angeles [13] - The company is focusing on creating popular products, such as the PG7 running shoes (with sales reaching millions) and the Storm Armor jacket, to prepare for the upcoming sales season [13] - Anta is leveraging major sporting events like the Asian Winter Olympics, Milan Winter Olympics, and Los Angeles Olympics to enhance its international brand exposure and recognition [13] Valuation Metrics - The stock is trading at a forward P/E of **16.8x** for 2024, **16.5x** for 2025, and **14.9x** for 2026 [3] - The P/B ratio is expected to decline from **3.86x** in 2023 to **2.77x** in 2026 [3] - The dividend yield is projected to increase from **2.5%** in 2023 to **3.5%** in 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Samsonite (1910.HK) [5] Core Views - Samsonite is the world's largest luggage company with a strong recovery post-pandemic, and it is expected to benefit from the overall recovery of the travel industry and macroeconomic improvements [5][3] - The company is focusing on multi-brand and multi-regional development, with significant growth potential in various markets [4][5] Company Overview - Samsonite was founded in 1910 and has grown to become the largest travel luggage company globally, with brands including Samsonite, Tumi, and American Tourister [10][11] - The company has seen revenue growth from $1.6 billion in 2011 to $3.6 billion in 2019, with a CAGR of approximately 11% [1][17] - In 2023, the company's revenue reached $3.7 billion, recovering to pre-pandemic levels, with profits hitting a historical high [17] Business Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 3% year-on-year, primarily due to weaker performance in the Chinese market and increased price competition in India [2][31] - The adjusted net profit for the same period decreased by 8.4% year-on-year, but the profit margin remains significantly better than pre-pandemic levels [2][41] Industry Logic - The global travel industry is expected to fully recover by the end of 2024, which will drive luggage consumption [3] - The global luggage market is projected to reach $160.4 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5% from 2024 to 2029 [3] - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top five luggage companies holding a market share of 30% in 2024 [3] Company Strategy - Short-term improvements are anticipated due to stimulus policies in China and promotional activities [4] - Long-term growth drivers include category expansion and regional penetration, with a focus on increasing the share of non-travel categories [4][5] - The company is also planning a dual listing outside of Hong Kong to improve stock liquidity [5] Financial Forecast - The adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be $372 million, $407 million, and $428 million, respectively [6] - The adjusted EPS for the same period is expected to be $0.25, $0.28, and $0.29, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12x, 11x, and 10x, significantly lower than the average of comparable companies [5][6]

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 78.1 HKD [6] Core Views - Anta Sports' Q4 2024 performance shows strong growth, with Anta brand recording high single-digit growth in both Q4 and full-year sales [1] - FILA brand sees a significant recovery in Q4 2024 with high single-digit growth, while full-year sales grow at a mid-single-digit rate [1] - Other brands experience a 50-55% year-on-year growth in Q4 2024 and a 40-45% growth for the full year [1] - Anta Group's total transaction volume during Double 11 exceeds 11.1 billion RMB, with Anta, FILA, and Descente ranking in the top 10 for sports footwear and apparel on Tmall, and Kolon entering the top 5 for outdoor footwear and apparel [2] - The "Super Anta" initiative shows significant results, with 45 stores opened in 2024 and plans to open 160 stores in 2025, achieving store efficiency three times that of regular stores [3] - Over 80% of Anta and Anta Kids stores in China have adopted the DTC model by H1 2024 [3] - The company's hybrid operating model effectively leverages the strengths and positioning of different brands, with wholesale and DTC models driving sales through distributors and franchisees, while direct retail models enhance sensitivity to consumer demand changes [3] - Anta Sports is steadily advancing its global strategy, with successful direct retail operations in key overseas markets and plans to expand in Southeast Asia, North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa [4] - The company's global strategy is based on deep market insights, tailoring operations to local consumer habits and preferences [4] Financial Projections - Anta Sports' revenue is projected to be 70.1 billion RMB in 2024, 78.5 billion RMB in 2025, and 86.8 billion RMB in 2026 [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 13.4 billion RMB in 2024 (including one-time gains), 13.2 billion RMB in 2025, and 14.6 billion RMB in 2026 [5] - EPS is forecasted at 4.7 RMB/share in 2024 and 2025, and 5.2 RMB/share in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17x, 17x, and 15x [5] Market Performance - Anta Sports' stock price has shown a significant upward trend, outperforming the Hang Seng Index with a 36% increase from January 2024 to September 2024 [8]