港股公司报告 | 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2024 10 26 年 月 日 周大福（01929.HK） FY2025H1 收入下滑 20%左右，经调整后利润率或有改善 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) [2][4] Core Views - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue growth exceeded expectations, with overall revenue increasing by 120%-125% YoY [6] - Domestic online strategy adjustments have shown significant results, with key channels like Tmall and blind box machines experiencing accelerated growth [6] - The company's "IP X Category X Globalization" strategy continues to evolve, with strong performance from key IPs like Labubu and SkullPanda, and rapid expansion in overseas markets [6] Financial Performance and Projections - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue breakdown: - Mainland China: +55%-60% YoY - Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas: +440%-445% YoY [6] - Key domestic channel growth in Q3 2024: - Retail stores: +30%-35% YoY - Robot stores: +20%-25% YoY - Blind box machines: +55%-60% YoY - E-commerce and other online platforms: +135%-140% YoY [6] - Financial projections for 2024-2026: - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 27.9/36.2/45.4 billion yuan - EPS: 2.07/2.70/3.38 yuan - PE ratio: 34/26/21x [2][6] IP and Product Performance - Labubu: - "ZIMOMO Big Angel" received over 170,000 reservations on JD - New "THE MONSTERS Building Blocks Series 2" recently launched [6] - SkullPanda: - First plush product "Soft and Tough" launched in October 2024, with an average resale price of nearly 2,800 yuan on secondary markets [6] - New IP "Starman": - First blind box series sold over 9,000 units on Tmall by October 25, 2024 [6] Global Expansion - Overseas store count reached 83 by H1 2024, with plans to add 30-40 new stores in H2 2024, focusing on North America and Southeast Asia [6] - The 100th overseas store opened in Jakarta, Indonesia on July 19, 2024, indicating accelerated global expansion [6] Valuation and Market Data - Current stock price: 70.75 HKD [4] - Market capitalization: 95,013.23 million HKD [4] - Historical stock price range: 78.00 HKD (high) / 16.90 HKD (low) over the past year [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TCL Electronics, with a target price based on the last closing price of 5.97 HKD [1][3][9]. Core Insights - The global TV market is experiencing strong demand for large high-end products, and panel production capacity is shifting towards Chinese companies, which may lead to increased concentration among Chinese TV brands [3]. - TCL Electronics, as a leading player in the global TV industry, is seeing a continuous increase in its market share for smart screens and high-end large screen products. The profitability of its internet business remains stable, and innovative businesses such as solar energy and comprehensive marketing are growing rapidly, enhancing brand strength [3]. - The domestic business is expected to benefit from the appliance replacement policy, leading to further growth [3]. - The projected net profits for TCL Electronics from 2024 to 2026 are 1.415 billion, 1.610 billion, and 1.931 billion HKD, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.56, 0.64, and 0.77 HKD [3][4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, TCL's global TV shipments reached 20.01 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%. In Q3 2024 alone, shipments totaled 7.49 million units, up 19.7% [1]. - The average screen size of global shipments reached 51.8 inches, with shipments of 65 inches and above increasing by 16.8%, and those of 75 inches and above rising by 35.3% [1]. - In the Chinese market, shipments increased by 5.3%, with the Thunderbird brand seeing a remarkable growth of 46.6% [1]. Regional Market Insights - In Europe, shipments grew by 35.5%, with shipments of 75 inches and above soaring by 126.5% [1]. - In North America, shipments increased by 8.2% in the first three quarters, with Q3 showing a significant rise of 27.5% [1]. - Emerging markets also saw a 6.0% increase in shipments, with Latin America and the Middle East/Africa markets growing by 12.1% and 22.7%, respectively [1]. Product Innovation - TCL's Mini LED TV shipments saw a remarkable growth of 162.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with domestic shipments increasing by 181.1% [1][3].

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 10 月 23 日 小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） 高性价比车型再次点燃消费者购车热情，公司交付量创历史新高 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|----------|-----------|----------|----------|----------|---------------------------------------------|-----------| | | | | | | | | | | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 增持（维持评级） | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 26855.12 | 30676.07 | 51393.79 | 76691.72 | 99994.50 | 股票信息 | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 27.95 | 14.23 | 67.54 | 49.22 | 30.39 | 行业 | 汽车 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | -91 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HK$19.30, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the current price of HK$15.50 [1]. Core Insights - The establishment of a joint venture is seen as beneficial for Li Ning, allowing the company to focus on the domestic market while leveraging external expertise for overseas expansion. The joint venture aims to achieve revenue of US$1 billion in its fourth year, reflecting the company's commitment to international growth [4][5]. - Li Ning's overseas business currently accounts for approximately 2% of total revenue, with expectations for significant growth through the joint venture [4]. - The financial projections indicate a modest revenue growth of 2.2% in 2024, with further increases of 3.9% and 3.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [5][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: RMB 28.2 billion in 2024, RMB 29.3 billion in 2025, and RMB 30.4 billion in 2026, with corresponding net profits of RMB 3.08 billion, RMB 3.28 billion, and RMB 3.47 billion [6][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 1.19 for 2024, RMB 1.27 for 2025, and RMB 1.34 for 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14 times for 2025 [1][6].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2024 10 26 年 月 日 京东集团-SW（09618.HK） 受益以旧换新、关注双 11 大促 9 月社零增速环比提升，家电 3C 类增速可观。10 月 18 日统计局数据显 示，今年前三季度，我国社会消费品零售总额约为 35.36 万亿元，同比增 长 3.3%。其中，9 月份社零总额约为 4.11 万亿元，同比增长 3.2%，增 速比上月加快 1.1 个百分点。按品类看，家用电器和音像器材类 9 月零售 额同比增长 20.5%。 京东是电器以旧换新政策的核心受益电商平台。商务部开启对 8 类家电产 品的消费者购买补贴，单件产品最高补贴 2000 元。在家电品类之外，多 地自主扩充更多补贴品类，如：广州增加家居家装品类、深圳增加手机平 板手表耳机等 3C 品类，更加灵活多元地满足消费者的需求。 商务部全国家电以旧换新数据平台显示：截至 10 月 15 日，已有超过 1000 万名消费者购买 8 类家电产品 1462.4 万台，享受 131.7 亿元中央补贴， 带动销售 690.9 亿元。京东家电收入占整体收入的比例较高，相较于其他 电商平台而言受益 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the soft drink industry, driven by its dual business segments of packaged water and beverages [1] - The company's revenue in 2023 reached 42.667 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.36%, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 12.079 billion yuan, up 42.19% year-on-year [1] - The beverage segment surpassed packaged water in revenue for the first time in 2023, contributing 49% of total revenue, with a growth rate of 55% [1] - The company's strong brand positioning and nationwide water source strategy have built a significant moat, supporting its premium brand image [1] Industry Overview Packaged Water Market - The Chinese packaged water market reached 215 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 7.1% from 2018 to 2023 [1] - The top five players in the market account for 58.6% of the market share, with the company holding a leading 23.6% share [1] - The market is expected to grow to 314.3 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 7.9% [32] Beverage Market - The Chinese beverage market reached 694.2 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 4.0% from 2018 to 2023 [47] - Tea beverages, functional beverages, and juice beverages are the key growth drivers, with tea beverages contributing 21% of the market share [47] - The market is expected to grow to 888.8 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 5.1% [47] Company Performance Revenue and Profit - In 2023, the company's revenue was 42.667 billion yuan, up 28.36% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 12.079 billion yuan, up 42.19% year-on-year [1] - The company's revenue is expected to grow to 49.254 billion yuan in 2024, 58.756 billion yuan in 2025, and 66.854 billion yuan in 2026 [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 12.754 billion yuan in 2024, 15.655 billion yuan in 2025, and 18.113 billion yuan in 2026 [5] Product Segments - Packaged water contributed 47% of revenue in 2023, with a growth rate of 11% [1] - Tea beverages contributed 30% of revenue, with a growth rate of 83%, driven by the success of the "Oriental Leaf" brand [2] - Functional beverages contributed 11% of revenue, with a growth rate of 28%, led by the "Scream" brand [2] - Juice beverages contributed 8% of revenue, with a growth rate of 23%, driven by products like "Farmer's Orchard" [2] Brand and Marketing - The company has built a strong brand image around "natural and healthy" through long-term multi-dimensional marketing campaigns [1] - The company's advertising campaigns, such as "A Little Sweet" and "We Don't Produce Water, We Just Deliver Nature," have deeply resonated with consumers [16][41] - The company has also leveraged sports marketing, sponsoring events like the Olympics and partnering with international sports organizations [43] Supply Chain and Production - The company has established 12 major water sources across China, ensuring high-quality supply and supporting its premium brand image [45] - The company's production facilities are highly automated, with 144 production lines for packaged water and beverages, capable of producing 81,000 bottles per hour [45] - The company uses a combination of road, rail, and water transport to ensure efficient distribution across the country [45] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in both packaged water and beverage segments, driven by its strong brand and product innovation [2] - The company's net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 18.113 billion yuan by 2026 [5] - The company's focus on health-conscious products, such as sugar-free tea and functional beverages, positions it well to capitalize on the growing health trend in China [47]

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 10 25 年 月 日 新东方-S（09901.HK） 教培主业旺季业绩持续兑现，利润率符合市场预期 事件：公司发布 FY2025Q1 财报。公司 FY2025Q1（2024 年 6 月 1 日-2024 年 8 月 31 日）实现净营收 14.35 亿美元（yoy+30.5%），其中剔除东方甄选 后的净营收达 12.78 亿美元（yoy+33.5%），符合上一季度业绩指引 （12.55~12.84 亿美元），Non-GAAP 经营利润 3.00 亿美元（yoy+22.6%）， Non-GAAP 归母净利润 2.65 亿美元（yoy+39.8%）。 旺季教育业务业绩持续兑现，文旅业务实现盈利。截至 2024 年 8 月 31 日， 公司学校及学习中心总计 1089 家（QoQ+6.24%，YoY+37.33%），公司将持 续提升教学网点数量与网点利用率，目标 FY25 教学点容量同比增幅在 20- 25%左右。分业务看，FY2025Q1 传统教育业务中高中/留学考培/留学咨询/成 人及大学生考试同比增长 20%+/18.8%/20.7%/30.4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue for Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 120%-125%. Domestic revenue grew by 55%-60%, while revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets surged by 440%-445% [1]. - The domestic offline business showed steady growth, with retail store revenue increasing by 30%-35% and robot store revenue by 20%-25% in Q3 2024. Online sales through Douyin and Tmall also performed exceptionally well, with Douyin revenue up by 115%-120% and Tmall revenue up by 155%-160% [1]. - The company is expanding its overseas presence, opening multiple new stores in various countries, including Thailand, Italy, and Indonesia, with plans to add 30-40 more overseas stores in the second half of the year [1]. - The report projects revenue for 2024-2026 to reach 132.32 billion, 181.28 billion, and 219.93 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 27.54 billion, 38.22 billion, and 46.53 billion yuan [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 132.32 billion yuan, reflecting a 110% year-on-year growth. The net profit is projected at 27.54 billion yuan, a 154% increase [2][8]. - The adjusted EPS for 2024 is forecasted to be 2.05 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 34 times [2][8]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 66% by 2024, with a net margin of 20.81% [8]. Business Performance - The company has diversified its IP and product categories, enhancing channel differentiation and precision marketing, which has driven revenue growth across various domestic channels [1]. - The overseas e-commerce team is implementing tailored operational strategies for different countries and platforms, focusing on localized services and marketing [1].