Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 29.70 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported strong earnings in Q3, with revenue increasing by 19.2% year-on-year to USD 2.11 billion, and a significant rise in container volume and freight rates [1][2]. - The outlook for Q4 remains positive, driven by seasonal demand in Southeast Asia, with expectations for further increases in both volume and freight rates [1][2]. - The report highlights a structural shift in the industry, with more trade and supply chain activities moving to the Asian region, particularly Southeast Asia, due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain vulnerabilities [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of USD 2.11 billion, with a 19.2% year-on-year growth, and a container volume of 2.55 million TEU, up 11.1% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 alone, revenue reached USD 810 million, reflecting a 56.6% quarter-on-quarter increase, while the average freight rate rose to USD 809 per TEU, a 44.1% increase from the previous quarter [1][2]. Market Trends - The shipping market has seen a significant increase in freight rates, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) and Southeast Asia Freight Index (SEAFI) rising by 212% and 317% year-on-year respectively in Q3 [2]. - The report anticipates continued growth in freight rates and volumes in Q4 due to the traditional peak season in Southeast Asia [2]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the ongoing transformation in the industry, with a shift of low-end manufacturing from China to Southeast Asia, enhancing regional supply chain collaboration and increasing trade volumes [3]. - It is projected that the supply of small to medium-sized vessels will grow at a slower pace than demand, leading to tighter supply conditions in the coming years [3]. Earnings Forecast - The net profit forecast for 2024 has been raised by 31% to USD 1.02 billion, with target prices adjusted to HKD 29.70 based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.1x for 2024 [4]. - Long-term profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have also been increased by 8% and 15% respectively, reflecting positive market conditions and company performance [4].

港股通 证券研究报告 特步国际 (1368 HK) 索康尼表现靓丽，KP 剥离进展顺利 2024年10月24日│中国香港 服装 公司公布 2024 年三季度的运营情况：特步主品牌（包括线上和线下渠道） 流水同比中单位数增长，环比 2Q24 10%的增长，增速有所放缓主因三季度 客流和连带率承压所致。索康尼 3Q24 流水同比+50%，延续强劲表现。全 年看，我们预计随着 KP 的剥离以及费用的控制，公司利润增速有望快于收 入。中长期看，公司主品牌持续强化跑步矩阵，专业运动品牌打造第二增长 曲线，维持"买入"评级。 电商和儿童驱动主品牌增长，运营保持稳健水平 3Q24 主品牌整体稳健增长，主要受客流的影响，线下流水同比持平微增， 而线上和儿童业务分别同比实现高双位数增长/低双位数增长，为主品牌增 长的主要驱动力。此外，三季度主品牌营运情况良好，其零售折扣约 75 折， 库销比约 4 个月，环比 2Q24 保持平稳水平。展望四季度，受益于国庆假期 和换季需求，我们预计 10 月主品牌恢复较好的增长势头，考虑到大促活动 对四季度线上销售影响较大，我们建议关注"双十一"的品牌表现。 索康尼流水同比+50%，KP 剥离 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded market expectations, with significant growth in both overseas and online channels [1] - Revenue in Q3 2024 increased by 120%-125% YoY, with mainland China revenue growing by 55%-60% and overseas revenue (including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) surging by 440%-445% [2] - The company's overseas expansion and online sales growth are key drivers of its performance [3][4] Mainland China Performance - Retail stores and robot stores in mainland China showed steady growth, with Q3 revenue increasing by 55%-60% YoY [3] - As of October 21, 2024, the company operated 423 stores (including Nanjing Golden Eagle) and 2,224 robot stores in mainland China [3] - Wholesale channels in mainland China grew by 45%-50% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] Online Performance - Online revenue growth accelerated significantly in Q3 2024, with WeChat抽盒机 revenue increasing by 55%-60% YoY and e-commerce platforms growing by 135%-140% YoY [3] - Tmall flagship store revenue surged by 155%-160% YoY, while Douyin flagship store revenue grew by 115%-120% YoY [3] - Douyin's core accounts generated a total GMV of RMB 215 million in Q3 2024, with a 56% MoM increase in September due to a promotional event [3] Overseas Expansion - Overseas revenue (including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) grew by 440%-445% YoY in Q3 2024, with full-year growth expected to exceed 300% [4] - The company expanded its overseas presence, opening 112 stores by October 21, 2024, including new theme stores in South Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan [4] - TikTok live streaming performed well, with cumulative GMV reaching approximately RMB 220 million, including RMB 90 million from the US and RMB 130 million from Thailand [5] New IP and Product Expansion - The company continued to expand its IP portfolio, launching 6 new IPs in 2024 and introducing 79 new blind box products in Q1-Q3 2024 [6] - New product lines, including labubu forest secret base building blocks and SP plush toys, were launched, with strong market performance [6] - The company diversified into new categories such as desserts, apparel, and accessories, with plans to open independent accessory stores in 2024 [6] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 12.07 billion, RMB 15.61 billion, and RMB 18.34 billion, respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 2.55 billion, RMB 3.34 billion, and RMB 4.01 billion for 2024-2026 [6] - Adjusted PE ratios for 2024-2026 are forecasted at 33X, 25X, and 21X, respectively [6] Valuation Metrics - The company's current price is HKD 75.20, with a 52-week range of HKD 16.90-76.70 [3] - Total market capitalization is HKD 100.99 billion, with a fully diluted market cap of HKD 100.99 billion [3] - Key valuation metrics include a P/E of 36.3X for 2024E, P/B of 9.3X, and P/S of 7.6X [7][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 operating data met expectations, with the main brand's retail sales growing at a mid-single-digit rate year-over-year (YoY) [2] - The children's wear segment outperformed adult wear, growing at a low double-digit rate [2] - Saucony's retail sales grew over 50% YoY in Q3 2024, continuing its strong performance [2] - Online sales growth outperformed offline sales, with e-commerce growing at a double-digit rate [2] - Retail sales improved in Q4, driven by the National Day holiday and Double Eleven shopping festival, with both online and offline channels achieving double-digit growth [2] - The company's inventory levels remained healthy, with a stock-to-sales ratio of around 4 months as of September 2024 [2] - The main brand's discount rate remained stable at 7.5% off, indicating robust operational quality [2] - The company is confident in achieving over 50% growth in its professional sports segment for the full year [2] - The K&P brand's divestment is expected to be completed by the end of November 2024, with a special dividend to be distributed [3] - The company expects profit certainty to be higher than revenue certainty in Q4 due to cost control measures [3] - The company has slightly lowered its revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected net profits of 1.24/1.39/1.51 billion RMB, respectively [3] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024E is projected to be 13.346 billion RMB, with a YoY decline of 7% [4] - Net profit for 2024E is expected to be 1.24 billion RMB, a 20% YoY increase [4] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at 45% from 2024E to 2026E [4] - In H1 2024, the company's revenue grew 10.4% YoY to 7.2 billion RMB, while net profit grew 13% YoY to 750 million RMB [6] - The sales expense ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.5% in H1 2024, while the management expense ratio rose by 0.2 percentage points to 10.4% [7] - Gross margin improved by 3.1 percentage points to 46.0% in H1 2024, with net margin increasing to 10.4% [7] Retail Performance - In Q3 2024, the main brand's retail sales grew at a mid-single-digit rate, with children's wear growing at a low double-digit rate [2] - Saucony's retail sales grew over 50% YoY in Q3 2024 [2] - Online sales grew at a double-digit rate, while offline sales saw slight growth due to weather-related disruptions [2] - Retail sales improved in Q4, with double-digit growth during the National Day holiday and Double Eleven shopping festival [2] - The company's stock-to-sales ratio remained stable at around 4 months as of September 2024 [2] - The main brand's discount rate remained at 7.5% off, consistent with previous quarters [2] Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on its core running business and optimizing its multi-brand portfolio [3] - The divestment of the K&P brand is expected to improve profitability, with the brand's impact on 2024 performance limited to a Q1 loss of $9 million [3] - The company plans to expand Saucony's presence in high-tier cities, with a new concept store opening in Shenzhen in September 2024 [2] - The company is confident in achieving over 50% growth in its professional sports segment for the full year [2]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 2.84 [1] Core Views - The company's H1 FY2024/25 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.9% and 34.7% YoY respectively, with a dividend payout ratio of 99.4% [1] - The company's performance is under pressure due to weak retail demand, but it maintains a high dividend policy and expects retail recovery driven by policy stimulus [2] - The company is adjusting its offline store structure, focusing on store efficiency, and expanding its online presence through live streaming [2] Financial Performance - H1 FY2024/25 revenue was RMB 13.05 billion, down 7.9% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 870 million, down 34.7% YoY [1] - Gross margin decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 41.1%, mainly due to increased promotional efforts and higher online sales proportion [1] - Operating cash flow increased by 2.5% YoY to RMB 2.61 billion in H1 FY2024/25 [1] Business Segments - Revenue from the main brands (Nike + Adidas) decreased by 8.1% YoY, accounting for 87.0% of total revenue [1] - Retail and wholesale revenue decreased by 8.9% and 2.2% YoY respectively, with retail accounting for 83.7% of total revenue [1] - The number of directly operated stores decreased by 5.4% QoQ to 5,813 as of August 2024, with average store size increasing by 4.8% YoY [1] Future Outlook - The company expects retail improvement driven by recent consumption stimulus policies, particularly in the sports sector [2] - The company has revised its profit forecasts for FY2025-2027, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to decrease by 11%, 4%, and 3% respectively compared to previous forecasts [2] - The company's EPS for FY2025/26/27 is forecasted to be RMB 0.21/0.26/0.31, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12/10/8 [2] Operational Adjustments - The company is focusing on optimizing store efficiency, opening new stores for main brands and professional vertical brands, and closing low-performing stores [2] - The company has significantly expanded its online presence, with over 2,500 mini-program stores and over 300 live streaming accounts as of August 2024 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (0388.HK) [1] Core Views - The trading sentiment has improved, and there is a focus on performance and valuation recovery [1] - The company's total revenue for Q3 2024 was HKD 15.993 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.13% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was HKD 9.270 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.05% [4] - The report highlights a significant rebound in the spot market trading volume in September, contributing to the positive performance [4][9] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders turned positive year-on-year, with a margin of 58.0% [4] - Revenue from the spot trading segment increased by 2% year-on-year, while the derivatives segment faced a 10% decline [4] - The average daily trading volume in the LME segment increased by 25% year-on-year, with trading fee income rising by 39% [9] - The report projects an increase in net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to HKD 128 billion, HKD 133 billion, and HKD 139 billion respectively, with corresponding year-on-year changes of +8%, +4%, and +5% [9] Market Conditions - The Hang Seng Index saw a strong rebound in mid-September, increasing by 19.3% in Q3 2024 [4] - The average daily trading amount in the spot market reached HKD 169.2 billion in September, marking a peak since April 2022 [4] - The report notes that the IPO fundraising amount for the first nine months of 2024 was HKD 55.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 123% [4] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of Hong Kong Exchanges as a key financial infrastructure connecting domestic and global markets, especially under the backdrop of policies promoting high-quality opening of the mainland capital market [9] - The anticipated optimization of the new listing application approval process by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is expected to enhance the attractiveness of the exchange [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (0388.HK) with a target price of HKD 377.3, compared to the current price of HKD 314.8 [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of HKD 15.993 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 9.270 billion, which is a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of HKD 5.372 billion, up 5.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 3.145 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [1]. - The report emphasizes the recovery in trading activity driven by favorable market conditions, with trading fees and settlement fees increasing as a percentage of total revenue [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue Structure - The revenue sources of Hong Kong Exchanges include trading and trading system usage fees, settlement and clearing fees, listing fees, custody and agency services fees, investment income, and market data fees. For Q1-Q3 2024, trading system and usage fees, along with settlement and clearing fees, accounted for 56.6% of total revenue, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The average daily trading amount of equity securities products on the exchange reached HKD 1,027 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%. In Q3, this figure surged by 23% to HKD 1,072 billion, indicating a significant uptick in trading activity [1]. Investment Income - Investment income netted HKD 3.728 billion in Q1-Q3 2024, down 4.1% year-on-year. The annualized investment yield for margin and clearing house funds decreased slightly to 1.61% [1]. - The report notes a strategic shift in the company's external investment portfolio, with a significant reduction in equity securities and an increase in government bonds and mortgage securities, aimed at stabilizing income [1]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be HKD 9.84, HKD 10.78, and HKD 11.78 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 32, 29, and 27 times [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved market liquidity and favorable policies from mainland China, enhancing its role as a key connector between China and the global market [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690 HK) [1] Core Views - Meituan's Q3 2024 revenue is expected to reach 921 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 20 5% and a QoQ increase of 12% [1] - Core local commerce revenue is projected at 687 billion yuan, with a YoY growth of 19% and QoQ growth of 13% [1] - The food delivery business is expected to generate 459 billion yuan in revenue, with a YoY increase of 15% and QoQ increase of 13%, and an operating profit margin of 17 8% [1] - Flash delivery revenue is forecasted at 67 billion yuan, with a YoY growth of 42% and an operating profit margin of 0 3% [1] - The in-store, hotel, and travel business is expected to achieve 154 billion yuan in revenue, with a YoY increase of 25% and QoQ increase of 11%, and an operating profit margin of 35% [1] - New business revenue is projected at 235 billion yuan, with a YoY growth of 25% and QoQ growth of 9%, and an operating profit margin of -8% [1] Core Local Commerce - Food Delivery Business - The food delivery business is expected to see a 14 6% YoY revenue increase to 459 billion yuan, with GTV growing 11% YoY and operating profit margin improving by 2 9 percentage points to 17 8% [1] - Order volume is expected to grow 12% YoY to 6 12 billion orders, driven by new supply models and marketing campaigns [1] - The "Autumn's First Milk Tea" campaign achieved a daily peak of 90 million orders in August 2024 [1] - Long-term growth is supported by adapting to consumer behavior changes and deepening the supply chain [1] Core Local Commerce - Flash Delivery Business - Flash delivery revenue is expected to grow 42% YoY to 67 billion yuan, with order volume increasing 37% YoY to 960 million orders [1] - The lightning warehouse model is a key driver, with over 30,000 warehouses currently and a projected 100,000 by 2027 [1] - Operating profit margin is expected to decline by 4 8 percentage points due to increased marketing and seasonal delivery costs [1] Core Local Commerce - In-Store, Hotel, and Travel Business - Revenue for this segment is expected to grow 25% YoY to 154 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 35% [1] - The "Shen Membership" integration is driving synergies, with GTV expected to grow 35% YoY [1] - The National Day Golden Week saw a 41 2% YoY increase in in-store consumption and a 69 6% YoY increase in tourist spending [1] - The segment is expected to achieve a 21% CAGR from 2023 to 2026 [1] New Business - New business revenue is expected to grow 25% YoY to 235 billion yuan, driven by Xiaoxiang Supermarket [1] - The segment's loss is expected to increase slightly to 1 8 billion yuan, mainly due to seasonal cold chain investments [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected at 3,328 billion yuan, 3,863 billion yuan, and 4,389 billion yuan, respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 33 2 billion yuan, 44 1 billion yuan, and 55 1 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [5] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 41 5 billion yuan, 57 3 billion yuan, and 68 3 billion yuan for the same period [5] - The target price is set at 230 yuan (250 HKD) based on SOTP valuation [5] Market Performance - Meituan-W has outperformed the Hang Seng Index with a 46 8% increase over the past month, 65% over three months, and 80 8% over twelve months [1] - The current stock price is 194 90 HKD, with a market capitalization of 1,185,913 94 million HKD [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HK$19.30, representing a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HK$15.28 [1][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that Li Ning's 3Q24 operational performance met expectations, with projected revenue and net profit for 2024 expected to grow by 2.2% and decline by 3.3% respectively, reaching RMB 28.22 billion and RMB 3.08 billion [4][5]. - The report maintains earnings forecasts and the "Buy" rating, with a target price of HK$19.30, corresponding to a 14x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 3Q24 results showed a slight decline in overall revenue (excluding Li Ning Young), with online sales growing while offline sales faced a decline [4]. - The report forecasts a 0.2% increase in total revenue for 2024, driven by a strong performance in professional channels and a low base effect for the upcoming quarter [5]. - The projected revenue figures for 2024-2026 are RMB 28.22 billion, RMB 29.33 billion, and RMB 30.38 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 3.08 billion, RMB 3.28 billion, and RMB 3.47 billion [6][7]. Earnings Forecast - The report anticipates a slight decrease in gross margin for 2024, with an expected increase in sales and management expense ratios due to higher marketing expenditures and depreciation costs [5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are RMB 1.19, RMB 1.27, and RMB 1.34 respectively [6][7]. Market Position - Li Ning's market strategy includes increasing retail discounts to attract customers, while online discounts have shown improvement [5]. - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a healthy inventory structure, with over 80% of products having a shelf life of less than six months [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huahong Semiconductor with a target price of HK$29.00, representing a potential upside of 22% from the current price of HK$23.70 [1][4]. Core Views - The report indicates that Huahong Semiconductor is on a path to recovery in profitability, with expectations of revenue growth driven by a gradual recovery in demand and price increases [1][2]. - The forecast for 3Q24 includes a revenue increase of 9% quarter-on-quarter to US$522 million, with a gross margin of 11.8% [1][2]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a slow recovery, particularly in consumer electronics, which is expected to be a key driver for Huahong's performance [1][2]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The investment rating is "Buy" with a target price of HK$29.00, reflecting a 1.0x P/B for 2024 [1][4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024 is projected at US$2,036 million, with a year-on-year decline of 11% [2]. - Gross profit is expected to be US$220 million, with a gross margin of 11% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at US$122 million, reflecting a 57% decline year-on-year [2]. Quarterly Projections - For 3Q24, revenue is expected to reach US$522 million, with a gross margin of 12% [3]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in operating profit, projecting a loss of US$40 million for 3Q24, improving to a loss of US$29 million in 4Q24 [3]. Valuation - The report adjusts the target P/B from 0.8x to 1.0x for 2024, indicating a potential revaluation based on expected recovery in demand and profitability [4][5]. - The estimated book value per share for 2024 is adjusted to US$3.69, supporting the target price of HK$29.00 [5]. Industry Context - The semiconductor industry is facing challenges, including competition in traditional processes and high capital expenditures, which may impact long-term ROE [4][6]. - The report highlights that Huahong's stock has increased by 28% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, yet remains below its book value [1][4].