A c tion | 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 10 Mar 2025 18:12:44 ET │ 16 pages Victory Giant Tech (300476.SZ) 1Q25 Stunning Beat Kicks Off a Landmark Year; Top Buy in AI Chain with TP Raised to Rmb90 CITI'S TAKE VGT released 1Q25 guidance on 10th March after market close, beat buy- side expectation by 47% and already achieved sell-side 2025 consensus of 38% at the mid-point. We believe the stunning beat comes from higher- than-expected AI-HDI profitability (fast yield rate ramp-up) and decent share allocation ( ...

中金公司 周期半月谈——两会政策背景下周期板块的逻辑 演绎 20250310 摘要 Q&A 两会期间财政政策和货币政策对经济的影响有哪些？ 两会期间，财政政策总体符合市场预期，特别国债从去年（2024 年）的 1 万亿 提升到 1.3 万亿，专项地方债从 3.9 万亿提到 4.4 万亿。这些措施在国债和地 方债层面都有所扩展，对经济有一定刺激作用。预算内的赤字率为 4%，加上特 别国债和专项地方债后的广义赤字率接近 8%，这一水平在中国历史上较高，仅 次于 2020 年疫情爆发时的高位。 财政政策从积极转向更加积极，特别国债重 点支持"两重两轻"，即企业端设备以新换旧和居民端消费品以旧换新，如家 • 中国财政政策转向更加积极，广义赤字率接近 8%，为历史较高水平，重点 支持企业设备更新和居民消费品以旧换新，利好汽车、家电等化工下游行 业，有望推动化工品需求增长。 • 货币政策适度宽松但受汇率约束，未来可能择机降准降息以应对出口下行 和物价风险。居民就业和收入偏弱导致储蓄增加，需进一步提振经济。 • 化工行业资本开支已开始下降，预计 2025 年下半年快速扩张产能步入尾声， 有助于行业景气度回升。能源成本下降缓 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the integrated machine and AI SoC sectors, particularly in the context of AI model deployment and local data security needs [3][11]. Core Insights - The demand for integrated machines has surged following the release of the Deep Seek AI model, with significant interest from government and enterprise sectors due to their data security requirements [3]. - The integrated machine is designed for AI model applications, effectively shortening deployment cycles and lowering barriers to entry, with a projected demand of 70,000 units in the government and enterprise sectors by 2025, translating to a market size of 54 billion yuan [3][11]. - The Deep Seek distilled small parameter models demonstrate excellent performance on terminal devices, achieving real-time question answering with a 1.5B model and suitable for text summarization and image description with 7B/8B models, requiring a minimum of 4-5GB of memory under INT4 quantization [3][5]. - Domestic computing power is expected to play a crucial role in the integrated machine sector, aligning well with mainstream downstream demands, although challenges in software-hardware collaboration remain [3][7]. - Quantization techniques are highlighted as a means to reduce AI hardware costs by converting model parameters from 16-bit floating-point to 8-bit integers, thus decreasing model size and computational complexity [3][8][9]. - The report notes a significant reduction in AI inference costs, which is driving the trend towards edge computing, with lightweight AI hardware gaining advantages in both edge and cloud environments [3][15]. - In the smart automotive sector, companies are integrating AI technologies to enhance smart cockpit functionalities, with BYD leading the way in adopting new AI chips in its vehicles [3][17]. - The domestic automotive chip sector is making strides, with companies like Yikatong collaborating with Volkswagen to export new SOC chips, indicating a growing acceptance of domestic chips in international markets [3][20]. Summary by Sections Integrated Machines - Integrated machines are tailored for AI model applications, providing a plug-and-play computing solution that meets high data security requirements for sectors like government and finance [4][10]. - The projected demand for integrated machines in the Chinese server market is expected to reach approximately 70,000 units by 2025, with a market potential of 54 billion yuan [11]. AI Model Performance - The Deep Seek distilled models are effective in reducing hardware resource requirements while maintaining performance, making them suitable for various applications [5][16]. Domestic Computing Power - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic computing power in the integrated machine sector, with a need to overcome challenges related to precision support in AI chips [7]. Cost Reduction Techniques - Techniques such as fixed-point quantization are crucial for lowering AI hardware costs and improving overall efficiency [8][9]. Smart Automotive Sector - The integration of AI in smart vehicles is on the rise, with significant advancements in automotive chip technology and collaborations with international partners [17][20].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the robotic vacuum cleaner industry, particularly for companies like Stone Technology and Ecovacs, due to their technological innovation and market strategies [3][23]. Core Insights - The robotic vacuum cleaner market is undergoing significant transformation driven by advancements in AI and robotics, enhancing product capabilities and expanding application scenarios [3][4]. - The global market size for robotic vacuum cleaners is estimated to be around $7 to $8 billion, with a notable 40% year-on-year growth in the domestic retail market, reaching approximately 20 billion yuan [3][6]. - Leading companies like Stone Technology are expected to see revenue growth of 40%-50% in 2025, with a projected revenue close to 18 billion yuan and a stable net profit margin of 10%-15% [3][8]. - The market is shifting from a price-driven strategy to a value-for-money approach, with innovations aimed at addressing consumer pain points [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The domestic market is dominated by key players such as Ecovacs, Stone Technology, and others, while the European market is a battleground for Chinese brands [5][16]. - In North America, the market is shared among Chinese brands and local competitors, with significant room for growth for Chinese brands in offline channels [5][16]. - The global cleaning appliance market is projected to grow by 4% in 2024, with robotic vacuum cleaners and stick vacuums showing strong performance [11]. Product Innovation - Innovations in robotic vacuum cleaners focus on enhancing navigation, obstacle avoidance, and cleaning efficiency, transitioning from mere tools to intelligent devices [12][18]. - The introduction of features like mechanical arms and advanced algorithms signifies a shift towards more sophisticated cleaning solutions [13][18]. Future Trends - The report anticipates a dual trend of domestic growth and international market penetration for the robotic vacuum cleaner industry in 2025, with a focus on innovation and value [17][21]. - Companies are expected to continue expanding their product offerings across various price segments to capture a broader market share [20][21].

6 March 2025 | 7:45PM HKT China Brokers & Asset Managers Upgrading brokers earnings on AI and ETF driven trading volume; Prefer CITICS-A, CICC-H, Hundsun Five months after the policy stimulus at end-Sep 2024, A-share ADTV has surged to Rmb 1.9tn (vs. Rmb ~1.1tn in the 2020/2015 upcycles), creating strong upward momentum in trading volumes. We attribute this mainly to 1) increased capital inflows and turnover driven by the AI theme; and 2) continuous surge in ETFs boosting market trading volume. Consequently ...

摘要 Q&A 近期 T 价格为何上涨？ 近期 T 价格的上涨主要受到三重利好因素的推动：出口改善、内需增长以及进 口矿的收缩。首先，出口方面，自去年（2024 年）10 月 30 日中国海关恢复氧 化锑的出口编码以来，国内拥有出口资质的企业陆续申请出口许可证，氧化锑 的出口逐步改善。根据海关数据，去年 11 月和 12 月我国分别出口氧化锑 776 吨和 1,571 吨，12 月环比增长 102%，恢复到管制前三年平均水平的 41%左右。 其次，内需方面，在阻燃剂采购旺季和光伏抢装双重推动下需求增加。根据测 算，2023 年 T 下游消费结构中阻燃剂占比 50%，光伏玻璃占比 24%。以旧换新 • 中国氧化锑出口逐步改善，去年 12 月出口量环比增长 102%，恢复至管制 前三年平均水平的 41%左右，主要受益于企业积极申请出口许可证。 • 国内阻燃剂采购旺季和光伏抢装推动氧化锑需求增加。阻燃剂占下游消费 50%，光伏玻璃占 24%。以旧换新政策和新能源项目并网截止日期前加速排 产，均利好需求。 • 进口矿收缩导致国内冶炼产量受限。去年 12 月铁矿进口环比减少 63%，内 外盘价差高企抬升进口成本，抑制国内 ...

中金公司 2025 年政府工作报告联合解读 20250305 政府将小幅提振国内需求放在首位，特别强调消费的重要性，包括供给侧和需 求侧的专项行动。例如，通过以旧换新等措施增加消费场景。此外，在结构转 型方面也有表述，如加大结构转型指数等。 2025 年政府工作报告的主要经济目标和政策支持力度是什么？ 2025 年政府工作报告设定了增长目标约为 5%，这一目标符合市场预期。此外， CPI 目标定为 2%左右，比往年略低，显示出务实的态度。财政政策方面，预算 提高了 4%，达到 1.6 万亿元；地方政府专项债从 3.9 万亿元提升至 4.4 万亿元， 增加了 5,000 亿元。超长期国债赤字为 1.3 万亿元，比去年增加 3,000 亿。货 币政策则保持适度降准降息，以灵活应对经济形势。 • 政府工作报告显示，2025 年财政政策更加积极，预算赤字率提高，地方政 府专项债和超长期国债均增加，货币政策保持适度宽松，通过降准降息灵 活应对经济形势，关注消费提振和结构转型。 • 房地产政策方面，政府强调推动市场止跌回稳，通过发行专项债支持地方 收储，扩大专项再贷款和商业贷款使用范围，显示出对房地产市场的重视， 但需关 ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 04 March 2025 Humanoid Robot Expert Call Takeaways (Part II): Commercialization is closer than you think We hosted an expert call today (Mar. 4) with Dr. Nicholas Nadeau, a distinguished figure in the fields of AI and robotics. Dr. Nadeau, with his extensive experience as a former CTO and founder in high-impact tech sectors, has been at the forefront of developing humanoid robots and integrating AI into practical applications. His tenure as CTO of 1X (formerly Halodi Robotics) s ...

摘要 Q&A 最近机械板块的市场环境和经济变化有哪些显著趋势？ 最近市场环境和经济变化对机械板块产生了显著影响。工程机械、AI 驱动的 AIDC 以及机器人等细分方向都出现了新的发展趋势。特别是智能制造领域，市 场关注度较高，我们进行了相关调研，寻找低位且预期不足的个股，如八方股 份和捷昌驱动。 中金公司 高端装备半月谈 • 电助力自行车行业库存周期接近尾声，八方股份受益于新老客户需求叠加， 预计 2025 年和 2026 年收入显著提升。关注电机设计与力矩传感器核心能 力在人体相关领域的迁移。 • 复合集流体产业化加速，各大厂商已下达 G 瓦级订单，材料厂商产能利用 率预计在 2025 年下半年满负荷运转，并启动大规模扩产。设备公司和材料 公司有望迎来投资机会。 • 艾立特发布智能底座，标志着战略调整，从工业机器人系统集成应用向人 形机器人生态建设转型。关注其在智能制造领域的进展及第二成长曲线的 挖掘。 • AIDC 基建中备电柴油发电机组板块行情持续，供需缺口短期难以缓解，量 价提升逻辑在招标中不断验证。玉柴国际合资公司业绩亮眼，自主品牌验 证成功并逐步批量出货。 • 工程机械行业需求呈现扁平化上行周期， ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for stocks over commodities and bonds, suggesting a preference for equities in the current market environment [5]. Core Insights - Recent market style rotation has shifted towards small-cap and growth styles, influenced by various macroeconomic factors and market sentiment [3]. - The industry rotation model recommends sectors such as steel, media, integrated communications, retail, and pharmaceuticals, based on liquidity and research performance [4]. - Active quantitative stock selection strategies have shown varied performance, with small-cap strategies outperforming others [6][10]. Summary by Sections Market Style Rotation - The current market style is leaning towards small-cap growth, with macro indicators slightly favoring small caps and market sentiment benefiting growth styles [3]. - Key drivers include a decline in new investor numbers and macroeconomic indicators [3]. Recommended Industries - The recommended sectors for March include steel, media, integrated communications, retail, and pharmaceuticals, selected based on an optimized industry rotation model [4]. - Media, integrated communications, and pharmaceuticals excel in liquidity, while steel scores high in research performance [4]. Asset Allocation Views - The report suggests a hierarchy of asset allocation: stocks are preferred over commodities, which in turn are preferred over bonds [5]. - The overall sentiment towards stocks is optimistic, supported by macroeconomic indicators, although caution is advised due to potential resistance in major indices [5]. Active Quantitative Stock Selection Strategies - The small-cap digging strategy has shown the best performance, with a 9.9% return in February, significantly outperforming small-cap indices [6]. - The investment behavior quality evaluation strategy has also performed well, yielding a 9.9% return in February and over 10% year-to-date [7][8]. Growth Strategy Performance - The ChatGPTBoost growth selection strategy yielded a 4.5% return in February, with a slight excess return over equity fund indices [9]. - The strategy focuses on identifying stocks with improving profitability and sustainable ROE [9]. Future Strategy Recommendations - Future recommendations emphasize the high valuation and market participation of small-cap and growth strategies, suggesting continued focus on these areas [11]. - Specific strategies to watch include small-cap digging and XGBoost for growth selection [11].