中金公司 3 月金融数据解读 20250413 摘要 Q&A 三月份的金融数据表现如何？ 三月份的金融数据整体表现超出市场预期。信贷数据达到 3.6 万亿元，而市场 预期为 3.1 万亿元左右，基本持平于去年水平。社会融资规模（社融）达到 5.9 万亿元，同样高于市场预期。信贷和社融数据的良好表现主要归因于银行 积极的信贷考核诉求以及消费贷款利率下调较快等因素。从实体经济需求角度 来看，主要是一些重大项目开工带动了信贷需求，但中小企业和民营企业对信 贷需求仍相对较弱。 社会融资规模在三月份达到 5.9 万亿元，高于市场预期。从支撑因素来看，政 府债券是主要贡献者，连续第二个月同比多增 1 万亿元。政府债券投放节奏前 • 3 月社融达 5.9 万亿元，高于预期，主要由政府债券贡献，同比多增 1 万 亿元，但企业债券受利率回调影响成为拖累因素。 • 3 月信贷投放 3.6 万亿元，超预期，企业短期贷款和居民中长期贷款是主 要贡献，但一季度居民贷款整体仍少增，中长期对公和个人贷款反映的真 实加杠杆程度自 2023 年以来呈下降趋势。 • 3 月存款同比少增 5,000 亿，非银存款减少 1.4 万亿是主因，理财回表 ...

中金公司 关税背景下如何看家电 20250408 摘要 Q&A 在关税冲击的背景下，家电公司对美收入和供应链敞口情况如何？ 对于家电行业，不同公司的对美收入和供应链敞口存在显著差异。以白电为例， 美的在 2024 年美国地区的收入占其整体外销收入约 20%，对应整体收入占比约 8%左右。这部分产能主要来自东南亚和国内。海尔美国市场的收入占比接近 60%，其中 60%由美国本土供应商提供，30%由墨西哥供应，其余不到 20%来自东 南亚和国内。格力在美国市场的收入占比很低，仅为 2%左右。海信家电在中个 位数左右，长虹美菱和 TCL 智家则为低个位数。 黑电方面，海信黑电的美国市 场收入占比约 10%-20%，主要由墨西哥供应。TCL 电子则有 20%的收入来自美国， 其中三分之一左右由墨西哥供应，其余大部分来自东南亚。 清洁电器领域，科 沃斯和石头科技在美国市场的收入占比分别为 15%-20%。科沃斯由于利润率较 高，对关税影响较敏感，而石头科技去年第四季度已承担了约 1 亿元人民币的 • 美国对中国家电加征关税将导致产品价格上涨，引发通胀，并可能影响需 求，但中国家电企业凭借供应链稳定性、订单灵活性和规模优 ...

Q&A 对等关税对农业板块的整体影响是什么？ 对等关税对农业板块的整体影响主要体现在粮价的短期冲击有限，聚焦粮食安 全和内需提振。大豆等主要农产品的贸易摩擦已经很难大幅推升粮食价格，因 为自 2018 年以来的产业链转移已显著提升应对农产品贸易冲击能力。农业板块 核心催化因素有两大主线：一是自主可控必要性进一步提升，保障粮食安全主 要抓手是种业振兴；二是在内循环重要性增强背景下，内需提振带来的畜禽产 • 中国农产品贸易应对能力显著提升，农业板块核心催化剂包括自主可控需 求驱动的种业振兴，以及内需提振带来的畜禽产品价格回暖预期，进而带 动产业链业绩反转。 • 种植链中，大豆、高粱价格小幅上涨，玉米基本面偏紧，库存消费比处于 十年低位，利好种植链业绩。种业振兴战略强化，生物育种技术储备领先 公司受益。 • 养殖链受贸易摩擦影响较小，内需提振直接拉动鸡肉、水产、猪肉价格。 美国祖代鸡引种暂停导致供给偏紧预期，餐饮需求复苏拉动鸡肉需求定价 边际好转。 • 消费链方面，常规代工短期利空，但全球布局优质产能代工利好，高端品 牌布局国货长期利多。进口宠物食品成本提升，国货龙头性价比凸显。 • 生猪供给持续增加，猪价易跌难涨 ...

中金公司 关税下如何看待建筑建材？20250408 摘要 Q&A 关税之后建筑建材板块的投资机会如何？ 建筑建材板块在关税之后仍然具有较好的投资机会。首先，建筑建材板块主要 依赖内需，建筑工程服务没有商品出口，大部分海外业务也采用本地化运作模 式，因此免疫于关税和贸易战的冲击。其次，从逻辑上看，这个板块能够跑赢 大市，其位置不高且逻辑顺畅。因此，我们认为这个板块是必须配置的。 • 建筑建材板块受益于纯内需财政发力，关注消费刺激（家居改善）和基建 链（水泥、消费建材、建筑央国企、国际工程），这些品种直接受益于财 政政策，是当前市场环境下的重要投资方向。 • 供给侧改革受益品种如水泥、玻纤、钢铁及部分消费建材，盈利触底且供 给可调节，央国企占比高，更易受益于改革。这些行业在反内卷方面具有 优势，值得关注。 • 防御性强、高现金流、高 ROE、高股息品种在市场波动中显现价值，如高 股息水泥、建筑央企及细分建材（如山东药玻）。此类品种适合风险规避 型投资者。 • 水泥行业受益于财政发力基建地产需求，2025 年旺季需求可能超预期，全 国水泥发货率同比持平或改善，供给端约束对价格及盈利影响大，产能利 用率约 60%，价 ...

中金公司 风光公用半月谈 摘要 • 光伏组件市场竞争格局优化，龙头企业市占率提升，CR5 市占率从 2 月的 55%升至近 65%，CR10 超过 80%，二三线企业在分布式领域竞争，行 业出清趋势未变。 • 光伏产业链下游组件和电子产品价格上涨，硅料供应量约 10 万吨，硅片 排产约 50GW，电池片和组件排产均超 55GW，产业链堵点仍在硅片环节， 需观察库存以推动产业链涨价。 • 光伏新技术关注无银化和铜电镀，聚合和帝科提出不同无银化方案，国电 投推进 HJT 加铜电镀产线产业化，通威积极推进 HJT 加铜电镀互联方案， 龙头企业或国企可能推动新技术发展。 • 玻璃价格在 13.5 至 14 元/平方米，组件端博弈激烈，涨幅受压，预计四 月有小幅上调空间。涨价原因是二线企业亏损、供给低于出货量、库存消 耗及胶基酸钠价格上涨。 • 玻璃市场长期价格预计维持在 14 至 14.5 元/平方米，待库存耗尽后，若 无进一步需求，价格将保持稳定。龙头企业已实现净利润回正，二线企业 仍亏损，面临产能调整。 Q&A 目前光伏组件市场竞争格局进一步优化，龙头企业市占率持续提升。CR5（前 五大企业）的市占率从二月份的 ...

中金公司 "对等关税"后的市场 20250407 摘要 Q&A 对等关税对全球市场的影响是什么？ 对等关税对全球市场的影响显著且复杂。首先，资产波动剧烈，情绪宣泄甚至 恐慌明显。具体来看，对等关税超预期主要体现在几个方面：一是所有贸易伙 伴不加区分地加征 10%的基线关税；二是部分贸易伙伴的关税对等，但实际加 征更多，如中国已被加征两轮 20%，理论上不应再被加征，但由于非关税贸易 壁垒和其他因素，反而被加更多。此外，还有 800 美元的小额包裹和汽车行业 的关税。这些措施使得美国整体有效税率达到近 100 年来的高点，即至少 23% • 美国有效税率因关税政策大幅提升至近百年高点，至少达 23%以上，对所 有贸易伙伴统一加征 10%基线关税，部分贸易伙伴如中国实际加征更多， 叠加小额包裹及汽车行业关税，导致市场反应剧烈。 • 市场情绪受冲击表现为避险交易，恒生科技、美股纳斯达克等估值较高股 票遭抛售，美股、美元下跌，债券和黄金上涨。流动性冲击显现，所有资 产包括避险资产下跌，美元上涨，投资者需现金应对赎回或风控减仓。 • 未来货币政策框架需关注国内流动性环境与政策空间，各国央行可能采取 措施对冲关税带来的市 ...

Investment Ratings - The report includes a "Buy" rating for MediaTek, CR Land, Weichai Power, and Krafton, while removing Advantest, Delta Electronics, Keppel Ltd, and Zijin Mining from the APAC Conviction List [1]. Core Insights - MediaTek is transitioning from a traditional smartphone application processor provider to an AI-focused company, with expected revenue and earnings growth of 16% and 17% CAGR from 2024 to 2027, respectively [2][24]. - CR Land is positioned for recovery in business growth and profitability, with forecasts indicating a re-acceleration in contract sales growth and market share gains [3][41]. - Weichai Power is expected to benefit from an improving outlook for heavy-duty trucks and a more profitable engine portfolio, with a forecasted 18% EPS CAGR over two years [4]. - Krafton's PUBG franchise is anticipated to drive earnings, with a focus on strong performance in upcoming results [5][9]. Summary by Company MediaTek - Positioned to transition to AI applications, with a forecasted revenue growth of 16% CAGR from 2024 to 2027, driven by market share gains and new total addressable markets (TAMs) [2][24][25]. - Expected operating margin (OpM) improvement from 19% in 2025 to 22% in 2027 [25]. - Current trading at 16x/13x FY26/27E P/E, at the mid/low-end of its historical range [26]. CR Land - Forecasts indicate contract sales growth re-acceleration and market share gains, with a projected gross profit margin recovery to 18% by 2027 [3][41]. - Expected average free cash flow (FCF) yield of 11% during 2025-2027 [3]. - Current share price implies a compelling valuation at 0.4x P/B on its development property business [3]. Weichai Power - Anticipated re-rating due to improved cyclical outlook for heavy-duty trucks and a more profitable engine portfolio [4]. - Forecasted gradual increase in dividend payout supported by strong net cash position and FCF generation [4]. - Currently trades at 10x 2025E P/E with a 6% dividend yield [4]. Krafton - Focus on the strong momentum of the PUBG franchise as a key earnings driver [5][9]. - Expected to outperform consensus estimates in upcoming earnings release [9]. - Currently trading at near-historical trough level at 12x 2025E P/E [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Bank of China (BOC), Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC), and China Construction Bank (CCB) with target prices of Rmb 6.73/HK$ 5.00, Rmb 6.82/HK$ 5.59, and Rmb 11.14/HK$ 7.91 respectively [24][27][28] Core Insights - Four large state-owned banks in China announced a total capital raise of Rmb 520 billion, with Rmb 500 billion from the Ministry of Finance and Rmb 20 billion from other state-owned shareholders [1] - The capital injection will increase the average shareholding of the Ministry of Finance and Central Huijin Investment by 5 percentage points to 56% [1] - The capital replenishment is expected to be completed through A-share private placements by the end of 2025 [1] Summary by Sections Capital Raise Details - The capital raise will be evenly distributed among BOC and PSBC, with each bank raising approximately Rmb 120 billion [3] - The new shares will be issued at a price below 1x book value, representing a 16% premium over recent trading prices [3] - New shares as a percentage of outstanding shares post-recapitalization for BOC and PSBC will be 8% and 17% respectively [4] Capital Adequacy - The CET1 ratio for BOC and PSBC is projected to increase by 86 basis points and 151 basis points respectively [4] - The report indicates that to maintain dividend per share (DPS) at 2024 levels, dividend payout ratios would need to rise to 31-36% [5] Growth Projections - The announced capital raise, along with increased dividend payouts, would allow for a 7.9-9.3% growth in risk-weighted assets (RWA) assuming unchanged density [5] - The report anticipates a downward trend in RWA density, which would enable more asset growth without proportionally higher capital consumption [15] Comparative Analysis - The report notes that Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) were excluded from the announced capital injections, with estimates suggesting they may require Rmb 150 billion each for capital support [18][19] - The average CET1 ratio increase for participating banks is expected to be 1.03 percentage points [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Tencent, Xiaomi, PDD, JD, NetEase, YMM, TAL, TCOM, BYD, AMEC, Concordia, GDS, and Kuaishou [1][5][8][9][10][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a shift in focus from AI infrastructure to AI applications, highlighting key stock ideas around the secular AI theme [1]. - It identifies five overarching themes and stock preferences, advocating a dual-pronged approach focusing on domestic policy beneficiaries and defensive games with solid global footprints [1]. - The report outlines expected sales volume growth for BYD, projecting 5.5 million units in 2025, a 29% year-over-year increase, with a stable market share of 35% in China's NEV sales [5]. - The report anticipates a recovery in Japan's tech sector around July-September, driven by a cyclical upturn and AI impact, with key stock recommendations including Murata Mfg, TDK, and Renesas [5]. - In the India QSR sector, the report expects a recovery in demand trends in the first half of FY26, with Domino's projected to outperform with 10% year-over-year LFL sales growth [5]. - AMEC is highlighted for its new product developments and increased R&D spending, with a positive outlook for growth [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections China Internet - The report discusses key investor focuses and debates following the China Internet results season, emphasizing stock ideas related to AI applications [1]. Japan Tech - The report notes early signs of recovery in Japan's tech sector, with a focus on production increases in edge AI devices expected around July-September [5]. BYD - BYD is projected to achieve a sales volume of 5.5 million units in 2025, with improvements in gross and net margins due to cost reduction efforts [5]. India QSR - The report anticipates a sluggish demand trend in Q4 FY25 but expects a recovery in the first half of FY26, with specific growth projections for Domino's and other QSR players [5]. AMEC - AMEC's recent product announcements and R&D advancements are expected to drive solid growth, with a target price set at Rmb275 [5]. Concordia Financial - Concordia Financial aims for a 9% ROE by FY3/28, reflecting a significant increase in net profits [9]. GDS Holdings - GDS's public REIT offering has been approved, with a projected distribution yield of 5.5% for 2025 [9]. Kuaishou - Kuaishou's advertising strategy focuses on content consumption ads and AI benefits, with confidence in achieving solid targets for 2025 despite a slowdown in Q1 [9].

Investment Rating - The report rates Weichai Power as a "Buy" and Sinotruk as a "Sell" based on their respective market positions and earnings outlooks [8][24]. Core Insights - The China heavy-duty truck (HDT) industry is expected to enter a multi-year upcycle driven by normalization in replacement demand, with domestic demand forecasts raised by 14-26% for 2025E-2030E, anticipating a volume doubling by 2030E compared to 2024 [1][15]. - The penetration rates for LNG HDTs and electric HDTs (eHDTs) are projected to increase to 36% and 35% respectively by 2030E, with clean/new energy HDTs expected to account for over 70% of total HDT demand by 2030E [1][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The report raises the outlook for the heavy-duty truck industry in China, indicating a positive cycle inflection into 2025E, supported by a rebalanced truck fleet size against current activity levels [17]. - The expected peak in sales volume is projected at 1.2 million units by 2030E, compared to 1.55 million units at the previous cycle peak in 2020 [15]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The report highlights that emission policies will play a crucial role in shaping the demand trajectory, with potential upgrades to emission standards and the phase-out of high-polluting trucks expected to drive demand [2]. - The domestic HDT sales volume is anticipated to see a mean reversion, gradually moving back to normalized replacement demand levels [9]. Company-Specific Insights - Weichai Power is favored due to its improving earnings power cycle-over-cycle, while Sinotruk faces margin pressure from a slowdown in high-margin export business and the impact of truck electrification [8][20]. - Revised EPS estimates for Sinotruk for 2025E-27E are 15-25% below consensus estimates, while Weichai's estimates are 6-18% above consensus, reflecting a more favorable outlook for Weichai [20][23]. Financial Projections - The report introduces new revenue and net profit estimates for both companies, with Weichai's target price raised to HK$22.00/RMB24.00 from HK$14.61/RMB16.30, while Sinotruk's target price is adjusted to HK$18.60 from HK$17.30 [21][24]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in domestic sales volume, with projections indicating a recovery in sales momentum driven by favorable replacement policies [25][66].