证券研究报告 纺织服饰 | 服装家纺 港股|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2024 年 11 月 13 日 证券分析师 羽绒服饰头部国牌，聚焦核心主业持续快速发展。公司成立于 1976 年，前期以代工 业务为主；自 1995 年起不断蕴育出波司登、雪中飞、冰洁等羽绒品牌，进入快速增 长阶段；2018 年，公司提出"聚焦主航道，收缩多元化"战略，将发展重心移向主 品牌。公司高管团队均具备丰富经验，带领公司在近年中实现营收及利润稳增长， 并不断在国际舞台展示创新产品，巩固公司品牌形象。 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-----------| | | | | 基本数据 收盘价（港元） | 4.28 | | 一年内最高/最低（港 元） | 5.14/3.05 | | 总市值（百万港元） | 47,487.74 | | 流通市值（百万港元） | 47,487.74 | | 资产负债率（%） 资料来源：聚源数据 | 46.38 | 波司登(0399 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (9987 HK) [3] Core Views - Yum China's Q3 2024 revenue reached $3 07 billion, up 5% YoY (or 4% at constant exchange rates), with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 22% YoY (or 21% at constant exchange rates) [1] - The company's same-store sales decline narrowed sequentially, with KFC and Pizza Hut showing improvements in customer traffic and pricing strategies [1][12] - Yum China has accelerated its store expansion, adding 1 217 net new stores in the first three quarters of 2024, with Q3 alone adding 438 stores [2][14] - The company has raised its shareholder return plan for 2024-2026 from $3 billion to $4 5 billion, reflecting a 50% increase [2][20] Store Operations and Efficiency - Yum China's restaurant-level margin remained stable at 17 0% in Q3 2024, with KFC and Pizza Hut margins at 18 3% and 12 8%, respectively [2][18] - The company has improved operational efficiency, with salary and employee benefits as a percentage of restaurant revenue decreasing by 0 2 percentage points YoY [2] - Yum China is focusing on cost optimization, with rent and other costs as a percentage of restaurant revenue decreasing by 0 4 percentage points YoY [2] Strategic Transformation - Yum China is increasing the proportion of franchised stores, with KFC and Pizza Hut aiming for 40%-50% and 20%-30% of new stores to be franchised, respectively [3][23] - The company has introduced new store models, including KFC Town Mini stores and Pizza Hut WOW stores, which have lower investment thresholds and better unit economics [3][29] - K Coffee, a high-value coffee brand, has expanded rapidly from 100 stores in March to approximately 500 stores, with plans to reach 600 stores by the end of 2024 [3][32] Financial Projections - The report raises Yum China's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to $895 million, $957 million, and $1 051 billion, respectively, reflecting upward revisions of 4%, 3%, and 2% [3] - The current stock price implies a forward P/E ratio of 21x, 19x, and 18x for 2024-2026, respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The report highlights the excellent results from the Phase III clinical trial of Pimicotinib (ABSK021) for the indication of tenosynovial giant cell tumor, indicating strong efficacy and safety [1] - The company has entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with Merck for Pimicotinib, which is expected to enhance commercialization prospects [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been revised upwards to 547 million and 636 million CNY respectively, with a projected net profit of 3 million and 28 million CNY for the same years [2] Summary by Sections Clinical Trial Results - The Phase III trial of Pimicotinib showed an overall response rate (ORR) of 54.0% compared to 3.2% in the placebo group, with a best ORR of 85.0% and a median treatment duration of 20 months [1] - The drug demonstrated good tolerability with a low rate of treatment discontinuation due to adverse events [1] Financial Projections - The company's revenue estimates for 2024 and 2025 have been increased significantly due to the promising trial results and the licensing agreement with Merck [2] - The projected net profit for 2026 is estimated at 1.3 million CNY [2] Pipeline Development - The report mentions ongoing clinical trials for other drug candidates, including ABSK011 and ABSK043, indicating a robust pipeline and continued research and development efforts [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's operational performance is stable overall, with expectations for improved performance in 2024 [1] - Sales in October showed a significant improvement, with a total sales amount of 116 billion RMB, a month-on-month increase of 65.5% [1] - The company has maintained a moderate land acquisition strategy, acquiring 7 plots of land in key cities, with a total land price of 9.2 billion RMB [1] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - For the period from January to October 2024, the company achieved a cumulative sales amount of 75 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 38.5% [1] - The sales area was 4.12 million square meters, down 39% year-on-year, while the average sales price was 18,211 RMB per square meter, up 0.8% year-on-year [1] Subsidiary Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 21.98 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 18%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 133.3% to 1.01 billion RMB [2] - The subsidiary Shanghai Jinmao Investment Management Group significantly contributed to the company's performance, with a net profit of 1.95 billion RMB in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 260.5% [2] Financial Health - As of mid-2024, the company maintained a healthy financial position with a debt-to-asset ratio of 67.7% and a net debt ratio of 77.4% [3] - The company issued medium-term notes totaling 5 billion RMB at a low interest rate of 2.8%, highlighting its credit advantage [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised upwards to 1.61 billion RMB, 1.79 billion RMB, and 2.50 billion RMB respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 8.9, 8.0, and 5.7 for the years 2024-2026, indicating a favorable valuation [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive sentiment towards the company, highlighting the successful oversubscription of the rights issue, which reflects shareholder confidence in the company's business development [1]. Core Viewpoints - The rights issue was well-received, with a subscription rate of approximately 4.44 times the available shares, indicating strong interest from existing shareholders [1]. - The total amount raised from the rights issue is expected to be around HKD 427 million, with a net amount of approximately HKD 425 million after expenses [1]. - Following the rights issue, the major shareholder's stake increased from 17.52% to 18.07%, while another shareholder's stake slightly decreased, indicating a shift in the ownership structure [1]. - The report suggests that the company has sufficient cash reserves to support its coking coal business and ensure stable high dividends for shareholders, presenting long-term investment value [1]. Summary by Sections Rights Issue Details - The rights issue was based on a ratio of one new share for every thirty existing shares held, priced at HKD 2.60 per share [1]. - A total of 164,227,928 new shares were offered, with 52 valid acceptances and applications received by the deadline [1]. Shareholder Confidence - The oversubscription of the rights issue demonstrates existing shareholders' confidence in the company's future performance and its coking coal business [1]. - The report notes that while there may be some dilution of earnings per share (EPS) due to the new shares, the rights issue was structured to consider existing shareholders' interests [1]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a recovery in coal production and sales in 2025, supported by ample cash reserves for future operations [1]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved profitability and sustained returns for shareholders in the long run [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.604 billion HKD for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.06%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.296 billion HKD, down 34.18% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 3.908 billion HKD, a decline of 37.03% year-on-year and 21.37% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for Q3 was -203 million HKD, a decrease of 122.97% year-on-year and 127.48% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The industry faced pressure due to increased capacity in Q2 and inventory depletion in Q3, leading to a rise in glass inventory to historical highs and a drop in prices near cash costs for some companies. Despite maintaining a significant cost advantage, the company's operational performance was slightly negative due to industry-wide impacts [3][4]. - The company’s Q3 expense ratio was 10.6%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The absolute values of financial and management expenses increased due to timing, while revenue decline affected the expense ratio. The inventory at the end of Q3 was 2.17 billion HKD, up 1.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating good inventory control [4]. - The current profitability in the photovoltaic glass segment is at a low point, with a significant decrease in production enthusiasm and ongoing reductions in production. It is expected that as demand recovers post-Spring Festival in 2025, inventory will continue to decrease, leading to a gradual recovery in profitability. The company, as an industry leader, is expected to benefit from future supply-side policies [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company achieved product revenue of $993 million in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 66.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.9%, indicating a sustained high growth trend [2]. - The net loss for Q3 2024 was $121 million, a decrease compared to a profit of $215 million in Q3 2023, primarily due to non-cash gains from arbitration settlements [2]. - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to $3.673 billion, $4.471 billion, and $5.224 billion, respectively, from previous estimates of $3.645 billion, $4.440 billion, and $5.044 billion [2]. - The company’s core product, Zebrutinib, continues to gain market share in the US and Europe, with Q3 2024 revenue of $690 million, a year-on-year increase of 93% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8% [2]. - The operational efficiency is improving, with SG&A and R&D expenses for Q3 2024 at $455 million and $496 million, respectively, accounting for 45.5% and 49.5% of total revenue [2]. Financial Summary - The company reported revenue of $1,192 million in 2022, with a projected increase to $2,459 million in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of 73.7% [1]. - Gross profit for 2022 was $1,129 million, with projections of $2,079 million for 2023 [1]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive by 2025, with a forecasted net profit of $278 million [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2024 performance shows significant improvement in profitability, with revenue reaching 9.86 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 74.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 83.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders narrowed to a loss of 690 million yuan, improving by 300 million yuan year-on-year and 510 million yuan quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 improved to 8.1%, up 6.9 percentage points year-on-year and 5.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, driven by increased sales volume and a higher proportion of high-value C series products [3]. - The company achieved a significant increase in sales volume, with Q3 2024 sales reaching 86,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 94.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 61.7%. The C series accounted for 78.3% of total sales in Q3 2024 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 29.87 billion, 49.24 billion, and 65.08 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 78%, 65%, and 32% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -3.80 billion, -2.74 billion, and 130 million yuan, indicating a trend of narrowing losses and a return to profitability by 2026 [5][6]. - The average selling price (ASP) for vehicles in Q3 2024 was 114,000 yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14% due to changes in sales structure [3]. - The company plans to expand its sales network, aiming to exceed 700 sales outlets by the end of 2024, up from 493 outlets as of September 2024 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Hongqiao (01378) is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next 6 months [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the increase in alumina prices has led to enhanced profitability, with the company continuing to deliver strong performance [1]. - The subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao reported a revenue of 110.1 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.8 billion yuan, up 141% year-on-year [1]. - The report anticipates that the company will achieve a net profit of 23 billion yuan and 24 billion yuan for the years 2024 and 2025, respectively, which is an upward revision from previous estimates [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Shandong Hongqiao's Q3 revenue reached 38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with a net profit of 5.96 billion yuan, up 38% year-on-year and 9.4% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The average price of aluminum ingots in Q3 was 19,546 yuan per ton, down 964 yuan from Q2, while the average price of alumina rose to 3,951 yuan per ton, an increase of 299 yuan from Q2 [1]. Cost Analysis - The average price of prebaked anodes in Q3 was 4,202 yuan per ton, slightly down from Q2's 4,334 yuan per ton, indicating a marginal decrease in costs [1]. - The average price of thermal coal remained stable at 848 yuan per ton in Q3, contributing to stable self-supplied power plant costs [1]. Profitability Outlook - The report indicates that the negative impact of falling aluminum prices is offset by rising alumina prices, along with positive contributions from reduced electricity costs during the wet season in Yunnan [1]. - The company recorded a 500 million yuan asset impairment loss in Q3, primarily related to power plant impairments, but operational profits are expected to be better without this impairment [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 8.90 [6][9]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience in Q3 with a net profit of RMB 1.64 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, and a Q3 net profit of RMB 670 million, up 13.5% year-on-year. The company’s non-GAAP net profit increased by 35% year-on-year [6][9]. - The overall revenue for Q3 showed mid-single-digit growth, with the beverage segment achieving low double-digit growth, particularly in products like red and green tea, and ice sugar pear. The food segment also recorded mid-to-low single-digit growth, with instant noodles seeing mid-high single-digit growth [6][7]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 34%, an increase of over 2 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material prices in the beverage segment, while the food segment faced pressure from rising palm oil prices [8][9]. Financial Metrics - The company’s market capitalization is HKD 31,186 million, with a closing price of HKD 7.22 as of November 12 [4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are RMB 0.43, RMB 0.46, and RMB 0.50 respectively, with a return on equity (ROE) expected to rise from 12.56% in 2023 to 16.17% in 2026 [10][16]. - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 28,591 million in 2023 to RMB 34,049 million in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.5% [10][19]. Business Segments - The beverage business continues to show strong growth, with Q3 revenue growth in the low double digits, while the food business also recorded positive growth, particularly in instant noodles, which benefited from market share gains following price increases by competitors [7][9]. - The company has invested in expanding its product visibility, including the deployment of 120,000 refrigerators to enhance consumer exposure [7]. Valuation - The report suggests a slight adjustment in profit forecasts due to raw material cost fluctuations and improved operational efficiency, with a target price based on a 25-year average PE of 18x [9][11].