Investment Rating - Buy rating (first coverage) [7] Core Views - Crystal International is a leading global apparel manufacturer with a diversified product portfolio and strong partnerships with top global brands [1][6] - The company has a robust global production layout, with 82% of its workforce located overseas, primarily in Vietnam [1][18] - Crystal International's revenue is expected to grow steadily, with projected revenues of $2.47B, $2.81B, and $3.18B for 2024-2026, representing a CAGR of 13.5%, 13.8%, and 13.0% respectively [3] - Net profit is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 21%, 17%, and 16% for the same period, with a PE ratio of 8x, 7x, and 6x, significantly lower than industry peers [3] Product Portfolio - Crystal International offers a diversified product portfolio across five categories: casualwear (28%), sportswear & outdoor (22%), denim (21%), intimatewear (18%), and sweaters (10%) [1][17] - The company has deep partnerships with 7 out of the top 10 global apparel brands, including Uniqlo, Levi's, GAP, Victoria's Secret, Nike, and Adidas [1][17] - Sportswear & outdoor category has been a key growth driver since 2016, with a CAGR of 14.1% from 2017-2023 [31][32] Global Production Layout - Crystal International has 23 factories across 5 countries, with 82% of its workforce located overseas, primarily in Vietnam (49%) [1][18] - The company has been expanding its upstream fabric production through acquisitions and self-built factories since 2021, enhancing vertical integration and shortening delivery times [1][18] Financial Performance - Crystal International's revenue has fluctuated in recent years due to external factors, but is expected to recover in 2024 with H1 revenue and net profit growing by 8.4% and 14.1% YoY respectively [23][24] - Gross margin has remained stable at 19%-20%, with net margin steadily improving to 7%-8% in recent years [24][25] - The company has a strong dividend policy, with a payout ratio of 60% in H1 2024 and a projected full-year dividend yield of 7%+ [39][40] Industry Overview - The global apparel retail market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.3% from 2024-2028, with sportswear being the fastest-growing category at a CAGR of 6.2% [42][43] - The top 10 global apparel brands have increased their market share from 6.6% in 2014 to 9.9% in 2023, with 7 of them being Crystal International's clients [44][45] - The apparel manufacturing industry is highly fragmented, with Crystal International holding a 0.4% market share, second only to Shenzhou International's 0.7% [52][53] Competitive Advantages - Crystal International's "Co-creation" business model allows it to collaborate closely with clients on product design, material selection, and production planning, enabling faster time-to-market and higher success rates [64][68] - The company has a strong R&D focus, with annual R&D expenditures of $20-40M and a portfolio of 48 patents covering various production technologies [69][70] - Crystal International's diversified product portfolio and global production footprint give it a competitive edge over peers, allowing it to offer one-stop solutions to clients [58][59]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to China Cinda (01359 HK) with a current price of HKD 1 43 and a target price of HKD 1 81 [1] Core Views - China Cinda is a leading player in the non-performing asset management (NPA) sector with a diversified financial services portfolio The NPA business accounts for 58 3% of revenue 52 7% of pre-tax profit and 57 3% of total assets as of 2023 [2] - The company is expected to benefit from economic recovery with increased NPA supply and improved disposal efficiency The NPA business achieved a gross yield of 4 3% in H1 2024 slightly down from the peak of 7 6% in 2021 [3] - Financial services particularly Nanyang Commercial Bank and Cinda Securities are poised for performance improvement driven by favorable interest rate environments and capital market opportunities [3] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 76 167 7 million in 2023 to RMB 84 637 4 million in 2026 with a CAGR of 3 68% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 5 820 9 million in 2023 to RMB 9 376 5 million in 2026 with a CAGR of 23 05% [1] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 0 11 in 2023 to RMB 0 20 in 2026 [1] NPA Business Analysis - The NPA business is the core revenue driver with traditional disposal debt-to-equity swaps and restructuring as key strategies The traditional disposal business has seen a decline in IRR from 18 6% in 2014 to 7 4% in 2023 [25][26] - Debt-to-equity swaps primarily focus on energy sector companies with cautious market-oriented approaches [31] - Restructuring business mainly involves real estate and manufacturing sectors with a typical cycle of 1-2 years [33] Financial Services Business - Nanyang Commercial Bank contributes significantly to the financial services segment with 67 5% of revenue and 52 4% of pre-tax profit in 2023 [52] - Cinda Securities is expected to benefit from capital market recovery with asset management business gaining importance [60] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The NPA business is valued at 11x PE with a target value of RMB 45 087 billion while the financial services business is valued at 5x PE with a target value of RMB 17 607 billion [3] - The total target value is RMB 62 694 billion corresponding to a target price of HKD 1 81 per share [3] Industry Context - The NPA industry has evolved through policy-oriented commercial transformation and comprehensive commercialization stages with China Cinda playing a pivotal role since its establishment in 1999 [11][15][16] - Recent policies including tax incentives and local debt resolution initiatives have enhanced the importance of AMCs in the financial system [22][23]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Yadea Holdings (01585 HK) with a target price of HK$17 14 [1] Core Views - Yadea is the leader in the electric two wheeler industry with over 16 million units sold in 2023 and revenue of RMB34 8 billion [1] - The industry is expected to benefit from new regulations and subsidies in the short term while long term demand still has room for growth both domestically and overseas [2] - Yadea has significant competitive advantages and leading overseas expansion with short term performance expected to recover and long term leadership likely to expand [2] - The company is forecasted to achieve net profit growth of -0 1% 21 7% and 15 2% from 2024 to 2026 [2] Company Overview - Yadea is a global leader in electric two wheelers with over 20 years of experience in the industry [41] - The company has eight R&D and production bases with an annual production capacity exceeding 20 million units and over 40 000 exclusive retail stores globally [41] - Revenue and net profit have grown steadily with a CAGR of 22 9% and 25 5% respectively from 2016 to 2023 [42] Industry Analysis - Short term growth is driven by new regulations and subsidies with the 2024 revision of the "New National Standard" expected to accelerate replacement demand [2][50] - Long term growth potential exists in both domestic C end and B end markets while overseas markets remain a blue ocean opportunity [2][57] - The industry is expected to see further consolidation with stricter regulations and higher entry barriers [63] Competitive Advantages - Yadea has leading advantages in cost supply chain channels and brand positioning [2] - The company has established scale advantages with production capacity significantly higher than competitors [66] - Yadea has made strategic upstream investments in key components like batteries and motors [67][72] Financial Performance - Revenue and net profit grew to RMB34 76 billion and RMB2 64 billion respectively in 2023 [42] - 2024H1 revenue declined 15 4% YoY to RMB14 41 billion due to industry slowdown and dealer inventory adjustments [82] - Gross margin improved to 18 0% in 2024H1 driven by product mix optimization and higher battery prices [88] Outlook and Forecast - Yadea is expected to benefit from new regulations and subsidies with performance recovery anticipated in 2024H2 [90] - The company is forecasted to achieve revenue of RMB40 38 billion and RMB46 21 billion in 2025 and 2026 respectively [94] - Net profit is projected to grow 21 7% and 15 2% in 2025 and 2026 driven by market share gains and overseas expansion [93]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record quarterly revenue of RMB 43.55 billion in Q3 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 21.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.55 billion, up 1.1% year-over-year. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached RMB 122.1 billion, a 32.54% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of RMB 3.063 billion, reflecting a 0.64% growth year-over-year [1]. - The consumer electronics segment is benefiting from increased market share among major clients and a trend towards high-end products. The global smartphone shipment in Q3 2024 was 316 million units, up 4.0% year-over-year, while tablet shipments reached 39.6 million units, up 20.4% year-over-year. The company anticipates improved operational efficiency and profitability from the acquisition of Jabil's production line after automation upgrades [2]. - The new intelligent products segment, including servers and robots, is expected to offset challenges in the residential energy storage market. The company has strategically positioned itself in the server market, developing various products and solutions, while industrial robots are set to launch, providing new growth opportunities [2]. - The automotive business, supported by the parent company BYD, saw a significant increase in Q3 2024 with vehicle shipments reaching 1.135 million units, a 37.8% year-over-year growth. The company expects further enhancement in the value per vehicle due to the growth of smart cockpit, smart driving, and thermal management products, along with the mass production of new smart suspension systems [3]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 171.0 billion, RMB 189.7 billion, and RMB 203.0 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 4.561 billion, RMB 6.302 billion, and RMB 7.254 billion [3][4]. - Key financial metrics for 2023 and projections for 2024-2026 include: - Revenue: RMB 129.957 billion (2023A), RMB 170.974 billion (2024E) - Net Profit: RMB 4.041 billion (2023A), RMB 4.561 billion (2024E) - Gross Margin: 8.0% (2023A), 7.3% (2024E) - Earnings Per Share: RMB 1.79 (2023A), RMB 2.02 (2024E) [3][6][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [1][8]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic biopharmaceutical sector with a rich pipeline of products and a strong market presence in various therapeutic areas [1][3]. - The core products are experiencing steady growth, with significant market share in their respective categories, particularly in the treatment of thrombocytopenia and anemia [2][5]. - The company has a robust research and development capability, with 28 products in the pipeline, including several nearing NDA submissions [3][7]. - The company has strategically positioned itself in the health sector, with a focus on hair loss and dermatological products, which are expected to drive future growth [6][8]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 6,859 million in 2022, with projections of 7,816 million for 2023 and 9,090 million for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 13.9% and 16.3% respectively [1][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 1,914.9 million in 2022 to 2,173.2 million in 2024, indicating a significant recovery and growth trajectory [1][9]. - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 9.7 in 2023 to 6.9 in 2024, suggesting an attractive valuation relative to earnings [1][9]. Product Performance - The core product, Tevaz (recombinant human thrombopoietin), achieved sales of 2,476 million in H1 2024, a 22.6% increase year-on-year, maintaining a 66% market share in the thrombocytopenia treatment market [2][5]. - The EPO products, Yibiao and Saiboer, generated 516 million in revenue, with a market share of approximately 43%, solidifying their leading position in the EPO market [2][4]. - The hair loss treatment product, Mandi, reported a revenue of 550 million, with a 10% year-on-year growth, and is expected to benefit from increasing market penetration [6][8]. Market Strategy - The company has a well-established sales and marketing team of nearly 3,000 personnel, covering a vast network of medical institutions and hospitals, enhancing its market reach [3][4]. - The company is actively expanding its product offerings and market presence in the health sector, particularly in the hair loss and dermatology segments, which are projected to grow significantly [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the company's investment rating to "Buy" with a target market capitalization of HKD 41 billion, representing a 24% upside from the current market capitalization [6] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 unaudited financial results show revenue of HKD 18.142 billion, up 10.4% YoY, while net profit attributable to owners decreased 6.1% YoY to HKD 3.593 billion, slightly exceeding expectations [4] - Operating cash flow continues to improve, with H1 2024 operating cash flow (excluding Yuehai Properties) reaching HKD 3.584 billion, up from HKD 2.286 billion in H1 2023 [4] - The water business remains stable, with pre-tax profit increasing 0.3% to HKD 6.167 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by steady growth in the water resources segment [5] - The real estate segment shows resilience, with no impairment in the first three quarters of 2024 and contracted sales of 212,000 square meters, slightly higher than the 209,000 square meters in the same period last year [5] - The company's dividend payout ratio remains stable at 65% in 2024, consistent with 2023, with an interim dividend of 23.97 HK cents per share announced [4] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024E is projected at HKD 29.551 billion, a 22% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to owners expected to reach HKD 4.003 billion, up 28% YoY [7] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at HKD 0.61, with a P/E ratio of 8.3x and a P/B ratio of 0.85x [7] - ROE is expected to improve to 10.3% in 2024E, up from 7.47% in 2023 [7] Industry Comparison - The company's 2024E P/E ratio of 8.3x is lower than the average P/E ratio of 12x for comparable companies with stable earnings and high dividends [6] - The company's dividend yield of 6.13% in 2023 is higher than the average dividend yield of 3.66% for comparable companies [10] Real Estate Segment Outlook - The real estate inventory is expected to decrease, with the book value of real estate inventory at HKD 32.8 billion at the end of 2023 and HKD 30 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, with prepayments of HKD 10.494 billion [5] - The report anticipates a reduction in real estate inventory impairment pressure in 2024 due to the decrease in inventory size and the implementation of macro policies [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group, with a target valuation of 25,047 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 147 USD per ADS and 143 HKD per share, indicating an upside potential of 48% and 45% respectively [5][9][118]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the domestic internet cloud business has emerged from a low point, with AI and international expansion serving as new growth drivers. The shift in focus towards AI-driven public cloud services is expected to enhance revenue growth and profitability [6][7][12]. - Alibaba's cloud business is identified as a core strategic focus, with significant investments in AI capabilities and self-developed chips, which are anticipated to drive revenue growth in the coming years [10][11][12]. - The report highlights that AI applications are beginning to show tangible contributions to revenue, particularly in cloud services and advertising, with significant growth in AI-related product revenues [75][110]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - For FY2025 to FY2027, the projected revenues for Alibaba Group are 10,186 billion RMB, 10,934 billion RMB, and 11,843 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 8.2%, 7.3%, and 8.3% respectively. Adjusted net profits are forecasted to be 1,570 billion RMB, 1,706 billion RMB, and 1,838 billion RMB, with growth rates of -0.9%, 8.7%, and 7.8% respectively [4][118][119]. - The adjusted EBITA margin is expected to improve, with forecasts of 7.5%, 7.8%, and 8.0% for FY2025 to FY2027 [118][121]. Key Assumptions - The report posits that Alibaba's self-developed chips and model capabilities will enhance the growth of its cloud business, with revenue growth rates for Alibaba Cloud projected at 7.5%, 10.0%, and 11.0% for FY2025 to FY2027 [10][118]. - The strategic focus on public cloud products is expected to lead to improved profit margins, as the company reduces low-margin integrated projects [7][10][110]. Market Comparison - The report notes that Alibaba's cloud business has maintained the largest market share in IaaS and PaaS, although it has seen a decline from over 40% to below 30% from 2019 to 2023, while competitors like Huawei have gained market share [63][66]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with AI becoming a critical factor in cloud service growth, as seen in the performance of international peers like Microsoft and Amazon [39][112].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price of HKD 75.00, indicating a potential upside of 53.8% from the current price of HKD 48.75 [1][4][9]. Core Insights - The overall performance of New Oriental is expected to be influenced by uncertainties surrounding the Oriental Selection business, but the education and cultural tourism segments remain robust. The contribution of Oriental Selection to overall profits is deemed minor [1][2]. - The revenue contribution from Oriental Selection for the fiscal year 2025 is adjusted down to 12% from the previous 15%, with revenue forecasts for Oriental Selection set at USD 623 million for FY25 and USD 710 million for FY26 [2][3]. - The education and cultural tourism businesses are projected to grow at a rate of 31% for FY25, with an operational profit margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 13%, translating to approximately USD 580 million [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue for FY25 is forecasted at USD 5.079 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 31%. The operational profit margin is expected to improve to 13% [2][10]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25 is projected at USD 553 million, with a net profit margin of 10.9% [3][10]. - The report anticipates a revenue of USD 1.007 billion for Q2 FY25, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28% [2][6]. Key Financial Metrics - The gross margin is expected to improve to 54.9% in FY25, with operational profit margins projected to reach 10.9% [3][10]. - The adjusted operating profit for FY25 is estimated at USD 551 million, with a significant increase in net profit expected in subsequent years [3][10]. - The report highlights a projected increase in cash flow from operating activities, expected to reach USD 1.138 billion by FY25 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 42.9 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35% [6][7]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 2.8 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% and a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 156% [6][7]. - The company expects Q4 2024 vehicle deliveries to be between 160,000 and 170,000 units, which corresponds to a year-on-year growth of 21.4% to 29.0% [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company delivered 153,000 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 45% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 41% [7]. - The average revenue per vehicle in Q3 2024 was approximately 270,000 yuan, which is a decrease of 49,000 yuan year-on-year and 9,000 yuan quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 21.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5 percentage points but an increase of 2.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [8]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 6.6%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.5 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.1 percentage points [8]. - The selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expense ratio was 7.8%, while the R&D expense ratio was 6.0% for Q3 2024 [8]. Sales and Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts sales of new vehicles to be 510,000, 710,000, and 850,000 units for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]. - Revenue projections for the same years are 146 billion yuan, 206.4 billion yuan, and 250.2 billion yuan, respectively [5]. Valuation - The report uses the Price-to-Sales (PS) method for valuation, estimating PS ratios of 1.3, 0.9, and 0.7 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]. - The reasonable value range for the company's stock is estimated to be between 105.56 and 113.10 HKD based on a PS ratio of 1.4 to 1.5 for 2024 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huarun Building Materials Technology (1313 HK) [7] Core Views - The report expects price elasticity in the South China market in Q4 2024, driven by seasonal factors and regional supply-demand dynamics [3][4] - The Greater Bay Area construction provides medium-term growth momentum for the South China cement market [5] - The company's strategic shift from market share to collaboration has had an immediate positive impact on regional prices [5] - The company's aggressive expansion into aggregates is entering a harvest period, providing a new growth curve [5] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 16 billion yuan, down 6% YoY, and net profit of 310 million yuan, down 52% YoY [3] - Q3 2024 net profit was 140 million yuan, up 77% YoY [3] - Cement and clinker sales volume was 43 86 million tons, down 7% YoY [4] - Ready-mixed concrete sales volume was 8 29 million cubic meters, up 33% YoY [4] - Aggregates sales volume was 46 28 million tons, up 71% YoY [4] Market Dynamics - National cement production in the first three quarters of 2024 was 1 327 billion tons, down 10 7% YoY [3] - New housing construction starts in the first three quarters of 2024 decreased by 22 2% YoY [3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) grew by 4 1% in the first three quarters of 2024, lower than the 5 9% growth in 2023 [3] - Cement prices in the Yangtze River Delta region have increased by approximately 100 yuan/ton since October 2024 [4] Company Strategy - The company shifted its pricing strategy from market share to collaboration in Q2 2024, leading to significant price elasticity [5] - The company is well-positioned as a regional leader with scale and location advantages [5] - The company's aggregates business is becoming a significant contributor to growth [5] Industry Outlook - Fiscal policy adjustments and increased liquidity injection by the central bank in October 2024 are expected to benefit the cement sector [5] - Debt resolution efforts may reduce interest expenses and open up mid-term leverage space, potentially improving infrastructure demand [5] - Industry supply-side changes, including overcapacity management and carbon trading, may lead to cost increases for small enterprises and strengthen collaboration [5] Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 660 million yuan and 1 16 billion yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19x and 11x [5]