近一月换手（%） 0.99 2024 年 11 月 04 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 《理想汽车-W（02015）2024Q2 财报点评：2024Q2 业绩环比增长，智驾持续加速（增持）*乘用车*戴 畅》——2024-09-02 2024Q3 交付量创历史新高。2024Q3，理想汽车交付 152,831 辆， 同/环比+45.4%/+40.8%。车辆销售收入 413.2 亿元，同/环比 +22.9%/+36.3%，车辆销售收入同比和环比的增加主要由于车辆交 付量增加，但部分被主要因不同产品组合导致的平均售价降低所抵 销。 《理想汽车-W（02015）2024Q1 点评报告：2024Q1 销量业绩环比承压，新品上市静待反弹（增持）* 乘用车*戴畅》——2024-05-25 《理想汽车-W（02015）2023 年三季报点评报告： 盈利同环比增长，交付量再创新高（买入）*乘用 车*薛玉虎》——2023-11-12 《理想汽车-W（02015）点评报告：销量稳步提升， 双能战略全面发力（买入） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 5.18 [3][5][14] Core Views - The company anticipates a significant decline in profit for the first three quarters of 2024, projecting a year-on-year decrease of 16% to approximately RMB 3.8 billion due to a substantial drop in revenue from its main pharmaceutical business [1][2] - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to a worsening sales performance in the oncology segment, particularly for its key products, which have been adversely affected by centralized procurement policies [1][2] - The report indicates that the core products in the neurological and cardiovascular segments are also underperforming, with a notable decrease in revenue growth for the second half of the year [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects total revenue for 2024 to be approximately RMB 29.4 billion, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [4] - Shareholder net profit is projected to decline to RMB 4.89 billion in 2024, down from RMB 5.87 billion in 2023, indicating a significant drop in profitability [4][8] - The report outlines a downward revision of revenue forecasts for the oncology segment by 16%-25% for FY24-26, with expected revenues of RMB 4.9 billion, RMB 5.5 billion, and RMB 6.4 billion respectively [2] Valuation Metrics - The adjusted DCF model suggests a target price of HKD 5.18 per share, with a current market price of HKD 5.27, indicating limited upside potential [3][5] - The report provides a detailed financial summary, including projected earnings per share of RMB 0.41 for 2024, with a P/E ratio of 11.7 [4][8] Market Context - The report highlights the competitive pressures in the oncology market due to price reductions from centralized procurement, which have not led to a significant increase in sales volume for the affected products [2] - The company faces challenges in rapidly recovering sales in the neurological and cardiovascular segments, with established products showing limited growth potential in the current market environment [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's overall performance in H1 2024 met expectations, with improved profitability [1] - Despite a slight decline in revenue, the company's profit optimization is promising [1] - The company is expected to see continuous growth in business scale and profitability due to asset integration and refined management [3] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue was RMB 49.76 billion, a decrease of 2.7% YoY, while net profit increased by 9.0% to RMB 4.34 billion [4] - Hospital business revenue in H1 2024 was RMB 46.00 billion, a slight decrease of 3.0% YoY, with outpatient revenue increasing by 1.7% and inpatient revenue decreasing by 6.1% [4] - Other business revenue increased by 1.8% to RMB 3.76 billion [4] Operational Highlights - The company managed 127 medical institutions across 10 provinces in China, including 13 tertiary hospitals and 23 secondary hospitals [4] - In H1 2024, outpatient visits and inpatient admissions at self-owned hospitals increased by 3.5% and 3.0% YoY, reaching 5.05 million and 280,000 respectively [1] - Average revenue per outpatient visit and inpatient admission decreased by 2.0% and 8.8% respectively, influenced by a two-year gap in medical insurance settlements [1] Profitability and Cost Efficiency - The gross profit margin for the hospital business in H1 2024 was 20.1%, with a gross profit of RMB 9.23 billion [2] - Financial expenses decreased by 34.8% to RMB 39.84 million due to the replacement of foreign loans with RMB loans, resulting in lower interest rates [2] - Income tax decreased by 16.3% to RMB 116 million, primarily due to a reduction in taxable income within China [2] Future Projections - The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 105.20 billion, RMB 110.84 billion, and RMB 117.46 billion, with YoY growth rates of 4.08%, 5.37%, and 5.97% respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 7.44 billion, RMB 7.82 billion, and RMB 8.17 billion for 2024-2026, with YoY growth rates of 188.90%, 5.02%, and 4.50% respectively [3] Market Position - The company is a leading comprehensive medical group under the central state-owned enterprise, with significant growth potential in the healthcare sector [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company reported a delivery of 153,000 vehicles in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.4%. The revenue reached 42.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, with a net profit of 2.82 billion yuan and a GAAP net profit of 3.85 billion yuan. The company expects revenue for 2024-2026 to be 147.3 billion, 205.4 billion, and 280 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.0%, 39.4%, and 36.3% respectively [2][7][8]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a vehicle delivery of 153,000 units, leading to a sales revenue of 41.32 billion yuan, which is a 22.9% increase year-on-year. The overall revenue for the quarter was 42.87 billion yuan, marking a 23.6% increase year-on-year. The company anticipates Q4 deliveries to be between 160,000 and 170,000 units, with expected revenue of 43.2 to 45.9 billion yuan [7][8]. - The automotive sales gross margin for Q3 2024 was 20.9%, with an overall gross margin of 21.5%, primarily driven by the scale effect of the Li L6 model. R&D and SG&A expenses were 2.59 billion and 3.36 billion yuan respectively, with a decrease in expense ratios [7][8]. Future Projections - The company forecasts its revenue for 2024-2026 to be 147.3 billion, 205.4 billion, and 280 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 19.0%, 39.4%, and 36.3%. The net profit is projected to be 8.53 billion, 14.24 billion, and 23.72 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -27.1%, 67.0%, and 66.6% respectively. The EPS is expected to be 4.02, 6.71, and 11.18 yuan per share, with a 3-year CAGR of 40.6% [2][8]. Ecosystem Development - The company is accelerating its ecosystem development, with 479 retail centers and 436 after-sales service centers established across 221 cities as of September 30, 2024. Additionally, it has deployed 894 charging stations and 4,286 charging piles nationwide [7]. Product and Technology Advancements - The company is enhancing its product capabilities and accelerating its smart electric strategy, with the OTA 6.4 version released in October, optimizing user experience through improved smart driving solutions [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto Inc. (02015.HK) [1] Core Insights - Li Auto's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with total revenue reaching RMB 42.87 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 67.67% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.6% [2][3] - The vehicle sales revenue was RMB 41.32 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 173.48% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.3% [2] - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for Q3 was RMB 2.81 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 155.1% [2] - The overall gross margin for Q3 was 21.5%, with a notable performance in the automotive sales gross margin at 20.9% [3] - The report highlights a significant improvement in operational efficiency, with a reduction in R&D and SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q3 2024 total revenue was RMB 42.87 billion, with vehicle sales contributing RMB 41.32 billion [2] - Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2.81 billion, with a Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 3.85 billion [2] - The company delivered 153,000 vehicles in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 45.4% [3] Margin Analysis - The overall gross margin was 21.5%, with automotive sales gross margin at 20.9% [3] - The report attributes the strong margin performance to controlled discounts and significant scale effects from increased sales volume [3] Expense Management - R&D expenses for Q3 were RMB 2.6 billion, and SG&A expenses were RMB 3.4 billion, showing improvements in expense ratios [3] - The report notes a strategic approach to managing expenses, including a slight reduction in R&D costs due to decreased design and development expenses [3] Future Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024 has been adjusted upwards to RMB 7.8 billion, while estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards to RMB 10.3 billion and RMB 15.3 billion, respectively [4] - The report anticipates a P/E ratio of 24 for 2024, 18 for 2025, and 12 for 2026 [4]

Investment Rating and Target Price - The report initiates coverage on Huarong Gas with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 37.05, based on a 15x PE multiple for 2024 [2] - The target price is derived from a combination of relative and absolute valuation methods, including PE, PB, and DDM models [11][14][16] Core Investment Thesis - Huarong Gas is expected to see steady profit growth driven by optimized business structure, improved operating cash flow, and reduced capital expenditures [1][7] - The company's free cash flow is improving, and its dividend per share (DPS) is entering an upward trajectory, enhancing its dividend value [1][2][7] - Key catalysts include margin improvement, dividend increases, and declining market interest rates [2][7] Business Segments and Growth Drivers Retail Gas Sales - Retail gas sales volume is expected to grow steadily, supported by policies like "coal-to-gas" and "bottle-to-pipeline" conversions [2][7][36] - The company's gas margin is expected to recover due to price adjustments and cost reductions, with a projected margin of RMB 0.53/0.55/0.56 per cubic meter for 2024-2026 [8][9] - Huarong Gas benefits from a higher proportion of residential gas sales, which allows it to capture more price adjustment benefits [7][42] Connection Business - Despite a slowdown in new connections due to the real estate downturn, the company still has room for growth, with an estimated 298/268/241 thousand new residential connections for 2024-2026 [8][54] - The company's contract liabilities remain high, providing a buffer for future connection business [7][55] Comprehensive Services and Energy Business - The comprehensive services business, including gas appliances and insurance, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 24.0%/22.0%/20.0% from 2024-2026 [8][58] - The comprehensive energy business, including distributed energy and EV charging, is projected to grow rapidly, with a target revenue of HKD 5 billion by 2025 [60][61] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.0%/4.9%/3.9% from 2024-2026, reaching HKD 106.4/111.6/116.0 billion [9][10] - Net profit is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.5%/11.3%/8.9% over the same period, with EPS of HKD 2.47/2.75/3.00 [9][10] Valuation - Relative valuation using PE and PB multiples suggests a fair value of HKD 37.05, based on a 15x PE and 2.0x PB for 2024 [11][12][13] - The DDM model estimates an intrinsic value of HKD 42.95 per share, based on a two-stage growth model and a cost of equity of 6.6% [14][15][16] Industry and Market Position - Huarong Gas is one of the largest city gas operators in China, with a strong presence in economically developed regions like the Yangtze River Delta and the Greater Bay Area [17][54] - The company benefits from its stable gas supply, with 87.7% of its gas sourced from pipelines, and long-term contracts with major suppliers like CNPC and Sinopec [42][43] Operational Efficiency and Cash Flow - The company has improved its working capital management, with positive cash flow contributions from prepayments and receivables in 2023 [7][51] - The gap between accounts receivable turnover days and prepayment turnover days has narrowed, indicating better cash flow efficiency [51][52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 29.40 HKD based on a 27x PE valuation for 2025 [2][5][8]. Core Insights - The company's smartphone shipments continue to grow year-on-year, with a 3% increase to 42.8 million units in Q3 2024, maintaining a 14% market share globally [1]. - The electric vehicle SU7 achieved over 20,000 deliveries in October, with expectations to meet the annual target of 100,000 units ahead of schedule [1]. - The launch of the Xiaomi Surge OS 2 marks a significant step towards an "AI full ecosystem," featuring innovations in system architecture and AI capabilities [1]. Financial Forecasts - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.79, 1.00, and 1.26 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment from previous estimates [2][8]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts of 347.3 billion CNY in 2024, 396.9 billion CNY in 2025, and 461.4 billion CNY in 2026, indicating a growth rate of 28% in 2024 [4][8]. - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 20.9% in 2024, with net profit margins improving to 5.7% [4][8]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong performance, with a 91.98% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [5]. - The stock price as of November 1, 2024, was 27.3 HKD, with a 52-week range of 27.45 to 11.84 HKD [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanghai Fudan (1385.HK) [2][3] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 1.99% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with a total revenue of 2.684 billion RMB. However, the smart meter chip business saw a significant growth of 27% year-on-year in Q3 2024, becoming a key driver for performance [2] - The overall gross margin decreased by 9.53 percentage points year-on-year to 55.05% for the first three quarters of 2024, attributed to intense market competition and price reductions to maintain market share [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 was 427 million RMB, down 34.3% year-on-year, with Q3 2024 net profit dropping 60.6% year-on-year to 79 million RMB [2] - The company is actively exploring new markets and applications, particularly in the security and identification chip sector, and has begun to establish overseas channels for financial card products [2] - The non-volatile memory business is expected to recover as the storage industry gradually improves, with a projected revenue increase in 2025 [2] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.684 billion RMB, a decrease of 1.99% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue at 890 million RMB, down 5.55% year-on-year [2] - The smart meter chip business revenue in Q3 2024 was 98 million RMB, up 27% year-on-year, driven by increased demand from grid tenders [2] Profitability - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 55.05%, down 9.53 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross margin was 52.15%, down 7.61 percentage points [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 427 million RMB, a decline of 34.3% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 9% in Q3 2024 [2] Market Expansion - The company is expanding its market presence in the security and identification chip sector, with Q3 revenue of 206 million RMB, down 9% year-on-year due to price competition [2] - The non-volatile memory sector is anticipated to recover, with a focus on industrial and consumer-grade products [2] Future Outlook - The net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been revised down to 519 million RMB and 789 million RMB, respectively, reflecting the competitive pressures [3] - The current share price of 15.52 HKD corresponds to a P/E ratio of 22x for 2024 and 15x for 2025, with expectations of recovery in the FPGA and memory sectors [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD Electronics, with a target price of HKD 47, indicating a potential upside of 45% from the current price of HKD 32.55 [2][3]. Core Insights - BYD Electronics reported a net profit of RMB 3.06 billion for the first three quarters, with total revenue reaching RMB 122.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.54%. The gross profit was RMB 9.06 billion, up 14.68% year-on-year, while net profit growth was modest at 0.64% [2]. - The growth in revenue and profit is primarily attributed to the consolidation of Jabil's profits following its acquisition, alongside growth in high-end Android devices and automotive electronics [2]. - The automotive electronics segment is expected to generate nearly RMB 20 billion this year, with high-value products like active suspension and smart cockpit gaining traction in the second half of the year [2]. - AI-related businesses are projected to contribute around RMB 1 billion in revenue this year, with expectations for significant growth in the following year [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 167.1 billion, representing a growth of 28.5%, with net profit expected to reach RMB 4.33 billion, a growth of 7.3% [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from RMB 1.79 in 2023 to RMB 1.92 in 2024, and further to RMB 2.39 in 2025 [4]. - The report anticipates a decrease in financial expenses in the coming year, which will positively impact profit contributions [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 15.4, indicating a potential upside of 52.4% from the current price of HKD 10.12 [1]. Core Views - The company has shown a slight increase in net profit quarter-on-quarter, with a 21.5% increase in Q2 net profit, aligning with market expectations. However, the year-on-year net profit has decreased by 22.5% [1]. - The coal business remains stable, with a quarterly production increase leading to a decrease in costs. The average selling price of coal is expected to rise slightly due to increased demand as the weather cools [1]. - The coal chemical segment has turned profitable, with a stable performance in the first three quarters, achieving revenue of RMB 187 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 106.6 billion, with a net profit of RMB 38.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 27% [1]. - The coal segment's quarterly revenue was RMB 228 billion, with a gross profit margin of 50.2%, an increase of 5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The coal chemical business reported a gross profit of RMB 15 billion in Q3, indicating a stable profitability outlook for the year [1]. Production and Sales Outlook - The company anticipates orderly production releases across various business segments, with new coal mines expected to commence operations by the end of the year and in 2026 [1]. - The coal production is projected to maintain growth, supported by new mining projects and increased operational efficiency [1]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be RMB 1.53, RMB 1.76, and RMB 1.93 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a gradual recovery in profitability [2]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 15.3 billion, with a slight increase expected in subsequent years [2].