Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [4]. Core Views - Anta brand shows steady growth while FILA brand experiences short-term fluctuations in revenue. The overall performance of other brands is strong, indicating robust long-term growth potential [1][2]. Summary by Sections Anta Brand Performance - Anta brand revenue in Q3 2024 increased by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, driven by strong e-commerce growth, which is expected to exceed 20% [1]. - The inventory turnover ratio is projected to remain healthy at 4-5, with stable discounts in offline channels and improved discounts in e-commerce [1]. - The brand is focused on optimizing product lines and enhancing operational efficiency across various sales channels [1]. FILA Brand Performance - FILA brand revenue in Q3 2024 decreased by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year due to a challenging consumer environment and ongoing adjustments in the business [1]. - The inventory turnover ratio for FILA is expected to approach 5, with minimal discount pressure at the terminal sales level [1]. - The brand aims to enhance its product and channel structure, focusing on professional products like golf and expanding its e-commerce presence [1]. Other Brands Performance - Other brands under Anta experienced a revenue growth of 45%-50% year-on-year in Q3 2024, benefiting from high-quality market segments and Anta's multi-brand operational capabilities [2]. Financial Projections - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 11% and a profit growth of 33%. Excluding a one-time non-cash gain of 1.6 billion, the profit growth is projected at 17% [2]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 13.61 billion, 13.83 billion, and 15.66 billion yuan, respectively, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 19 times for 2024 [2][3]. Financial Metrics - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 69.26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.1% [3]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 13.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 33% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 4.81 yuan [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended (Maintain)" [2][7]. Core Views - The launch of the new model P7+ is crucial for the company to enhance its sales and strengthen its position in the high-end electric vehicle market. The P7+ is positioned as a high-end electric sedan priced under 300,000 RMB, emphasizing spaciousness and advanced driving capabilities [4][7]. - The P7+ will feature the company's new generation of high-level driving assistance system, which is expected to reduce hardware costs significantly compared to previous models with laser radar [4][7]. - The company anticipates that the P7+ will complement the existing P7 model, targeting family users with its spacious design and comfort features [4][7]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth from 30.68 billion RMB in 2023 to 42.93 billion RMB in 2024, and further to 70.09 billion RMB in 2025, with a projected net profit turning positive in 2026 [6][7]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 1.5% in 2023 to 13.9% in 2024, indicating a recovery in profitability as new models are launched [6][12]. - The company’s net profit is projected to be -6.17 billion RMB in 2024, improving to -2.006 billion RMB in 2025, and reaching a profit of 898 million RMB in 2026 [6][11]. Market Position and Competition - The company currently has approximately 200,000 vehicles equipped with advanced driving systems, which is lower than competitors like Huawei and NIO, who have around 300,000 vehicles [5][9]. - The successful launch of the P7+ and the upcoming M03 Max version, both equipped with advanced AI driving systems, are expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the smart driving segment [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sands China (1928 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 24.70, corresponding to a 2025 EV/EBITDA of 12x [2][7]. Core Views - The completion of renovations is imminent, which is expected to recover lost market share as previously diverted customers return. The Sheraton hotel will be transformed into the first luxury hotel under the Marriott brand (Londoner Macao), offering 2,405 new rooms and suites, enhancing synergy with the other two Londoner hotels. The entertainment venue, Galaxy Macau, will also reopen after renovations in December [2][3]. - The company may restart dividend payments earlier than expected, with a potential dividend of around HKD 1 for 2025 if the previous payout ratio of approximately 5% is maintained [4]. - The recent performance of the stock has been affected by low allocation from funds, indicating a potential need for reallocation in the future [2]. Summary by Sections Renovation and Market Recovery - The imminent completion of renovations is expected to enhance Sands China's capacity to attract customers, recovering market share lost during the renovation period. The reopening of the entertainment venue and the transformation of the Sheraton hotel into a luxury Marriott property are key factors in this recovery [3][4]. Dividend Expectations - With the business returning to normal post-pandemic, there is an expectation that dividends may be reinstated sooner. Historically, Sands China paid an annual dividend of HKD 1.99 per share from 2014 until the pandemic, and if this trend resumes, the 2025 dividend could be around HKD 1 [4][5]. Financial Projections - The report provides financial forecasts indicating significant revenue growth from HKD 51,057 million in 2023 to HKD 72,806 million by 2026, with a projected EBITDA of HKD 21,032 million in 2025 [6][12]. - The report also highlights a structural shift in the Macau gaming market, moving from high-end to mid-tier customers, which may influence future revenue streams [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" with a target price of 3.75 HKD [1]. Core Views - The medical beauty business is steadily growing, with strong performance in the Asia-Pacific and European markets [1]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.209 billion HKD for H1 2024, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 78 million HKD, down 42.05% year-on-year [1]. - The medical beauty segment generated 1.056 billion HKD in revenue, accounting for 88.5% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [1]. - The company is focusing on new product launches, which have been well received in the market, and is expanding its commercialization efforts in the Asia-Pacific region [1]. Business Segment Summary - **Medical Beauty Business**: Revenue reached 1.056 billion HKD, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%. The revenue mainly comes from classic devices like Soprano, Harmony, Opus, Accent, and Hybrid [1]. - **Injectable Fillers**: Revenue was 31.949 million HKD, a decrease of 7.5% year-on-year, due to a shift in focus towards new product launches [1]. - **Dental Business**: Revenue was 19.952 million HKD, down 47.0% year-on-year, as this segment is still in the incubation phase and facing demand-side pressures [1]. - **Service and Other Businesses**: Revenue was 85.271 million HKD, a decrease of 14.1% year-on-year [1]. Regional Performance Summary - **North America**: Revenue was 474 million HKD, accounting for 39.7% of total revenue, down 15.7% year-on-year due to rising credit costs affecting customer purchasing decisions [1]. - **Asia-Pacific**: Revenue was 396 million HKD, accounting for 33.3% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 15.5% driven by strong performance from Alma China [1]. - **Europe**: Revenue was 170 million HKD, accounting for 14.2% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 10.0% due to the transition to direct sales in the UK market [1]. - **Middle East and Africa**: Revenue was 109 million HKD, accounting for 9.1% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 10.9% [1]. - **Latin America**: Revenue was 44.661 million HKD, accounting for 3.7% of total revenue, down 20.3% year-on-year [1]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin for H1 2024 was 62.41%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a higher proportion of direct sales [1]. - The selling expense ratio increased by 2.59 percentage points year-on-year due to increased sales and marketing activities [1]. - The management expense ratio increased by 1.49 percentage points year-on-year due to expenses related to new office operations [1]. - R&D expense ratio remained stable year-on-year [1]. Future Outlook - The company expects revenues for 2024-2026 to be 2.569 billion HKD, 3.002 billion HKD, and 3.505 billion HKD respectively, with net profits of 215 million HKD, 280 million HKD, and 339 million HKD respectively [1].

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------| | 周大福（ 01929 ） | | 证券研究报告 \n2024 年 10 月 10 日 | | | 投资评级 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 486.56 HKD per share [4][13]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 165.8 billion RMB in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 7% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 3% [2]. - The Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2024 is projected to reach 54.2 billion RMB, indicating a year-over-year increase of 21% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 5% [2]. - The report highlights a positive trend in gaming performance, resilient advertising revenue, and a financial services segment impacted by weak consumer spending [2]. Summary by Sections Q3 2024 Performance Forecast - Expected revenue of 165.8 billion RMB, with gaming revenue at 51.5 billion RMB (YoY +12%, QoQ +6%) and social network revenue at 29.9 billion RMB (YoY +1%, QoQ -1%) [2][9]. - Advertising revenue is anticipated to be 29.6 billion RMB (YoY +15%, QoQ -1%), driven by video content, while financial and enterprise services revenue is expected to be 53.7 billion RMB (YoY +3%, QoQ +6%) [2][9]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 657 billion RMB and 715.1 billion RMB in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 216.3 billion RMB and 242.5 billion RMB [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the strong product cycle in gaming and the resilience of advertising, with potential recovery in financial services as consumer spending rebounds [2][3]. Financial Metrics - The report provides detailed financial projections, including a Non-GAAP EPS of 5.68 RMB for Q3 2024, with a projected growth rate of 22% YoY [2][17]. - The company’s revenue growth rates are forecasted at 7.9% for 2024 and 8.9% for 2025, with a significant increase in adjusted net profit growth of 39.5% in 2024 [3][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 15.42 [7][8] Core Insights - The company reported a strong Q3 revenue growth of 14.1% year-on-year, reaching RMB 3.286 billion, while the net profit decreased by 22.5% to RMB 379 million [2][3] - The company is expected to continue its revenue growth trajectory, driven by the expansion of its proprietary brand business and the recovery of traditional business segments [3][5] - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2024-2026 to be RMB 1.698 billion, RMB 2.010 billion, and RMB 2.393 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.28, RMB 0.33, and RMB 0.39 [2][12] Revenue Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 8.323 billion, a 4.0% increase year-on-year [2] - Q3 revenue alone was RMB 3.286 billion, marking a 14.1% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2][3] Profitability Analysis - The company's pre-tax profit for Q3 was RMB 513 million, down 2.6% year-on-year, while net profit saw a more significant decline of 22.5% [2][4] - The report attributes the profit pressure to increased R&D investments and a significant rise in tax expenses compared to the previous year [4][5] Business Segments - The ToB segment is benefiting from stricter regulations in the U.S. and Europe, leading to a shift from traditional disposable products to new closed and open products [3] - The ToC segment has shown remarkable growth, with proprietary brand revenue increasing by 71.9% year-on-year in H1 2024 [3] R&D and Innovation - The company is increasing its R&D investments, particularly in the heated non-combustible products and medical nebulization sectors, which are seen as long-term growth strategies [5] - New product developments in the medical nebulization field have received recognition from regulatory bodies in Europe and the U.S. [5] Financial Projections - The report projects a revenue increase for 2024 to RMB 12.066 billion, with a growth rate of 8.03% [12] - The expected net profit for 2024 is RMB 1.698 billion, reflecting a slight recovery from the previous year's decline [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nine Dragons Paper (02689) [3] Core Views - Nine Dragons Paper's FY2024 performance met expectations with revenue of RMB 59.496 billion, up 4.9% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 751 million, turning from a loss to a profit [3] - The company achieved a sales volume of 19.6 million tons, up 18.3% YoY, with a profit per ton of RMB 38 [3] - In H2 FY2024, revenue was RMB 28.885 billion, up 13.1% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 458 million and a profit per ton of RMB 48 [3] - The company's strategic layout in pulp-paper integration and product diversification is gradually showing results, with significant improvement in profitability [3] - The company's capacity expansion is progressing, with new capacities in chemical pulp, mechanical pulp, and cultural paper expected to further stabilize profitability [3] Financial Performance - FY2024 revenue breakdown by product: corrugated paper RMB 33.035 billion (+17.7% YoY), white board paper RMB 8.148 billion (-4.1% YoY), cultural paper RMB 4.134 billion (-12.0% YoY) [3] - FY2024 sales volume breakdown: corrugated paper 11.1 million tons (+32.9% YoY), white board paper 2.7 million tons, cultural paper 0.7 million tons [3] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio rose to 65.0% at the end of FY2024, up 2.4 percentage points YoY, due to large-scale capacity expansion [3] - FY2024 operating cash flow was a net outflow of RMB 794 million, but improved significantly in H2 with a net inflow of RMB 1.719 billion [5] Future Outlook - The company plans capital expenditure of RMB 12.8 billion in FY2025, similar to FY2024, with expectations of a gradual improvement in the debt-to-asset ratio from FY2026 onwards [3] - The company's profit per ton is expected to continue improving, supported by pulp-paper integration and product diversification strategies [3] - The report forecasts FY2025-2027 net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 1.444 billion, RMB 2.234 billion, and RMB 3.243 billion, respectively, with PE ratios of 10.9X, 7.1X, and 4.9X [5] Industry Analysis - The paper industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics as downstream demand recovers, import paper impact eases, and leading paper companies slow down new capacity additions [5] - Leading companies with advantages in raw materials, scale, and management are expected to continue consolidating the market [5]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Smoore International (6969 HK) [4] Core Views - Closed-end products expected to show positive trends, with APV continuing strong growth [1][4] - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 3 286 million, up 14 1% YoY and 16 5% QoQ [5] - Q3 2024 pre-tax profit was RMB 513 million, down 2 6% YoY but up 24 4% QoQ [5] - Q3 2024 comprehensive income was RMB 330 million, down 28 3% YoY and 20 4% QoQ [5] Financial Performance - Revenue growth driven by strong performance in proprietary brand (APV) and closed-end products [6] - US pod system product revenue grew 6 1% QoQ and 6 5% YoY in Q2 2024 [6] - Europe and other regions pod system product revenue surged 93 2% QoQ and 22 5% YoY in Q2 2024 [6] - APV revenue increased 72% YoY in H1 2024, expected to maintain strong growth in Q3 [6] Profit Analysis - Pre-tax profit growth attributed to revenue and gross profit increase [6] - Net profit declined 22 5% YoY due to higher tax expenses [6] - R&D expenses increased, focusing on HNB and medical vaporization products [6] Market Position and Strategy - Major client VUSE held 51 2% market share in US closed-end and disposable products as of H1 2024 [6] - Company continues to optimize R&D structure, focusing on medical vaporization, HNB, and proprietary brands [6] - Launched MOYAL skincare brand and first-generation vaporization beauty product solution in Q1 2024 [6] - Completed development and production layout for several drug delivery devices for asthma and COPD in H1 2024 [6] Future Outlook - Expected net profit for 2024-2026: RMB 1 34 billion, RMB 1 67 billion, and RMB 1 92 billion respectively [6] - Corresponding PE ratios: 52X, 42X, and 36X [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's performance is under pressure year-on-year due to cost input strategies, but there is a positive trend on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Future revenue growth from new business segments and an improved market landscape is anticipated [4]. - The company has slightly underperformed expectations, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 1.35 billion, 1.89 billion, and 2.48 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 51, 37, and 28 times [4]. - Revenue growth is driven by proprietary brands and closed products, with a year-on-year increase of 14.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.5% in Q3 2024. The decline in net profit year-on-year is attributed to tax expenses and increased operational costs [4]. - The market for nebulization products is expected to improve, with recent policy signals indicating a more favorable regulatory environment for flavored electronic cigarettes [4]. - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) business is projected to contribute to revenue growth, supported by increased R&D investment and collaboration with BAT to provide comprehensive product and technology solutions [4]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is estimated at 12.42 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 11%. The projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 14.29 billion and 16.43 billion RMB, respectively, both reflecting a 15% growth rate [7]. - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted to be 1.35 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 18%. The net profits for 2025 and 2026 are expected to recover to 1.89 billion and 2.48 billion RMB, showing growth rates of 40% and 31% respectively [7]. - The PE ratio for 2024 is projected at 51.4, decreasing to 36.7 in 2025 and 28.0 in 2026, indicating an improving valuation over time [7].