Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ENN Energy Holdings with a target price of 73.99 HKD per share [3][11] Core Views - ENN Energy's revenue grew by 0.9% YoY to 54.587 billion yuan in H1 2024, while net profit declined by 22.8% to 2.573 billion yuan [3] - The company's natural gas business showed steady growth, with retail gas volume increasing by 4.5% YoY to 12.71 billion cubic meters [3][8] - The pan-energy and smart home businesses experienced significant growth, with pan-energy sales volume increasing by 26% YoY to 197.4 billion kWh [9] Financial Performance - Domestic core profit increased by 9.5% YoY to 3.08 billion yuan, while basic earnings per share decreased by 0.66 yuan to 2.29 yuan [3] - Gross margin declined by 1.38 percentage points to 11.84%, and operating profit margin fell by 2.59 percentage points to 7.15% [3] - The net debt ratio decreased from 25.3% to 24.3%, reflecting efforts to optimize the debt structure [10] Business Segments - Industrial and commercial retail gas volume grew by 5.4% YoY, accounting for 75.2% of total retail gas volume [8] - The company added 775,000 new household users and achieved a daily opening gas volume of 7.262 million cubic meters [8] - The smart home business saw a 23% YoY increase in gross profit, with transaction customers reaching 2.683 million and an average unit price of 325 yuan per customer [9] Future Outlook - The report forecasts FY24-26 main business revenue at 122.475 billion yuan, 132.386 billion yuan, and 143.859 billion yuan, respectively [11] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 8.134 billion yuan, 8.633 billion yuan, and 9.357 billion yuan for FY24-26 [11] - The company expects a 20%-30% growth in smart home business gross profit in H2 2024 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Southern Airlines is "Accumulate" [2][5]. Core Views - The report indicates that the supply and demand in the industry are expected to continue recovering, with the company poised to reduce losses in its main operations. The construction of the Beijing Daxing hub is anticipated to elevate the profit center [4][5]. - The company has significant profit elasticity and benefits from a potential decline in oil prices, which could enhance profitability during peak seasons [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The net profit for the first half of 2024 is projected at -1.23 billion RMB, with a significant impact from a nearly 1.4 billion RMB investment loss due to the capital increase in Sichuan Airlines. The main operations are expected to continue reducing losses year-on-year [5]. - The company’s fleet size increased by 6.7% compared to the same period in 2019, with an ASK growth of 6% [5]. - The passenger load factor improved by 6 percentage points year-on-year, surpassing 2019 levels, while seat revenue increased by 4% compared to 2019 [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively investing in international routes, capitalizing on cross-border e-commerce opportunities, leading to a 4.5 billion RMB increase in logistics profits to 1.7 billion RMB [5]. - The report highlights that if the average fuel procurement price decreases by 10%, the estimated annual net profit increases for China Southern Airlines and other airlines would be 4.2 billion RMB, 4.1 billion RMB, 3.5 billion RMB, 530 million RMB, and 470 million RMB respectively [5]. Long-term Development - The construction of the Beijing Daxing hub is a significant strategic move for China Southern Airlines, as it is the largest base airline at the airport. The company is expected to benefit from new slot allocation policies [5]. - The report anticipates that as supply and demand recover, the profitability of domestic routes will improve, and the long-term profitability of international routes is also expected to enhance [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [1][2]. Core Views - The company has shown stable growth in domestic demand and is gradually enhancing its overseas logistics capabilities. It has been recognized in various rankings, including the "Top 100 Enterprises in Chongqing" and "Top 100 Logistics Companies in Western China" [1]. - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.165 billion yuan, an increase of 4.54% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 29.26 million yuan, up 4% year-on-year. The main revenue sources include vehicle transportation, commodity sales, and supply chain management for automotive raw materials and parts [1]. - The company benefits from national policy support and promotional measures from automotive manufacturers, leading to stable growth in domestic automotive production and sales. The company's main client, Changan Automobile, also reported growth that outperformed the industry average [1]. - The company plans to raise funds through a directed issuance of shares to enhance its overseas logistics capabilities and invest in smart logistics and supply chain management [1]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 72.75 million yuan, 82.15 million yuan, and 90.59 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.45 yuan, 0.51 yuan, and 0.56 yuan [2][3]. - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2026 are 7.969 billion yuan, 8.359 billion yuan, and 8.836 billion yuan, with growth rates of 4.9%, 5.7%, and 6.3% respectively [3]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout, distributing a final dividend of 0.2 yuan per share in September 2024 [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for New Oriental Education & Technology Group (9901 HK) with a target price of **HKD 80.00**, implying a potential upside of **25.2%** [2][4] Core Views - New Oriental continues to maintain its leading position in international education, with steady expansion in its education business [2] - The company's education business is expected to achieve a **24% CAGR** in revenue from FY2024 to FY2027, driven by ongoing margin optimization [2] - The offline teaching center expansion is progressing well, with a **6% QoQ increase** in Q1 FY2025, adding **60+ new centers**, primarily in Tier 1 and New Tier 1 cities [2][5] - The education business is valued at **20x P/E** for the 12 months ending February 2026, excluding contributions from Dongfang Zhenxuan [2] Financial Performance and Forecasts Q1 FY2025 Preview - Total revenue is expected to grow **33% YoY** to **USD 1.46 billion**, in line with the company's guidance of **31-34%** [3] - Non-Dongfang Zhenxuan revenue is projected to increase **33% YoY** to **USD 1.247 billion** [3] - Adjusted operating profit is estimated at **USD 320 million**, with an operating margin of **21.9%**, driven by a **2 percentage point improvement** in non-Dongfang Zhenxuan business margins [3] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted at **USD 259 million**, with a net margin of **17.7%** [3] Segment Performance - Overseas test preparation revenue is expected to grow **21% YoY**, high school revenue **27%**, university/adult education **26%**, and new businesses **52%** [3] - Gross margin is projected to improve to **58%**, up **2.5 percentage points** from the previous forecast [4] Long-Term Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from **USD 4.314 billion** in FY2024 to **USD 7.646 billion** in FY2027, with a **24% CAGR** [6] - Adjusted operating profit is forecasted to increase from **USD 473 million** in FY2024 to **USD 1.196 billion** in FY2027 [6] - Adjusted net profit is projected to rise from **USD 381 million** in FY2024 to **USD 1.043 billion** in FY2027 [6] Industry and Peer Comparison - The report covers multiple companies in the internet and education sectors, with **Buy** ratings for peers like TAL Education (TAL US) and Gaotu Techedu (GOTU US) [8] - New Oriental's valuation and growth prospects are highlighted as favorable compared to its peers in the education sector [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy" [3][5]. Core Views - The adjustment of agency deposit rates is expected to significantly enhance profits by approximately 17%, with a projected reduction in agency fees by 13% to 100.6 billion yuan, resulting in a savings of 15.1 billion yuan [1][5]. - The new pricing scheme for agency fees will be linked to revenue growth, which is anticipated to stabilize the cost-to-income ratio in the long term and support steady profit growth [5][6]. - The bank's unique partnership with the postal system provides a strong deposit absorption capability, mitigating the impact of the fee reduction on deposit levels [5][6]. Summary by Sections Agency Fee Rate Adjustment - The agency fee rates for various deposit types have been significantly reduced, with the overall average rate dropping from 1.24% to 1.08%, a decrease of 16 basis points [1][8]. - Specific reductions include: - Demand deposits from 2.33% to 1.992% - Time deposits (1 year) from 1.10% to 0.999% - 2-year deposits from 0.35% to 0.149% - 3-year deposits from 0.10% to 0.020% [1][8]. Financial Projections - For 2023, the bank's total agency fees are projected to be 115.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.4% despite a decrease in the average fee rate [2][6]. - The bank's net profit for 2024 is estimated at 88.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [6][7]. Cost-to-Income Ratio - The cost-to-income ratio for 2023 is reported at 64.82%, with expectations for improvement following the fee adjustments [5][7]. - The bank aims to align the growth of agency fees with revenue growth, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 87.00, indicating a potential upside of 25.8% from the current price of HKD 69.15 [2][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the approval of two new indications for the company's products, significantly expanding its commercial portfolio into non-oncology areas. The approval of the drug 开坦尼 for first-line treatment of gastric cancer is expected to greatly increase its potential patient population, with an estimated peak sales forecast adjustment to RMB 5.2 billion. Additionally, the approval of AK102 for primary hypercholesterolemia and mixed dyslipidemia is noted as a strong competitive advantage in the market [1][2]. - Recent clinical data releases from major conferences such as ESMO and EADV have shown promising results for the company's products, particularly for IL-17 古莫奇单抗 in treating moderate to severe plaque psoriasis and for the drug 依沃西 in various solid tumors, which may enhance the clinical application and extend the product lifecycle [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been increased by 6-10% due to the recent approvals and positive clinical developments. The new revenue estimates are RMB 2,849 million for 2024, RMB 4,786 million for 2025, and RMB 6,465 million for 2026, reflecting significant growth compared to previous forecasts [4][5]. - The company is expected to report a net profit of RMB 786 million in 2025 and RMB 1,880 million in 2026, indicating a recovery from losses in 2024 [4][5]. - The DCF valuation model suggests a fair value of HKD 87.0 per share, supported by anticipated catalysts such as the outcomes of insurance negotiations and the approval of new indications [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China National Aviation (China National Airlines) [2][7]. Core Views - The aviation demand shows resilience, and supply-demand dynamics are expected to continue recovering. The company is projected to see a significant increase in profitability as supply-demand conditions improve [6][7]. - The report anticipates a net profit of -2.8 billion RMB for the first half of 2024, indicating a continued reduction in losses compared to the previous year [7]. - The company is adjusting its net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 0.8 billion and 6.1 billion RMB respectively, while introducing a new forecast of 15 billion RMB for 2026 [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to rise from 52.9 billion RMB in 2022 to 141.1 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a 167% increase. Projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 169.9 billion, 182.5 billion, and 199.1 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 20%, 7%, and 9% [5]. - Gross profit is forecasted to improve from a loss of 29.9 billion RMB in 2022 to a profit of 7.1 billion RMB in 2023, with further increases to 10.8 billion, 19.8 billion, and 31.8 billion RMB in the following years [5]. - Net profit is projected to shift from a loss of 38.6 billion RMB in 2022 to a loss of 1.0 billion RMB in 2023, followed by profits of 0.8 billion, 6.1 billion, and 14.9 billion RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its high-quality flight network, which is expected to enhance long-term value despite short-term pressures [7]. - The report highlights that the company’s fleet size has increased by 14% compared to 2019, with a 5% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK), although recovery in wide-body aircraft operations remains slow [7]. - The strategic acquisition of Shandong Airlines is expected to bolster the company’s market position, enhancing its operational capabilities and profitability potential [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its stock performance [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is initiating a significant asset restructuring, aiming to enhance its position as a clean energy leader by acquiring shares in Yuanda Environmental through its hydroelectric assets [3]. - The restructuring aligns with national policies promoting state-owned enterprise reforms and capital market improvements, capitalizing on a favorable regulatory environment [3]. - Following the restructuring, the company will establish a red-chip structure, with Yuanda Environmental serving as the platform for integrating hydroelectric assets, while the company will operate as a comprehensive clean energy platform [3][4]. - The company’s valuation is currently at a low price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.76, suggesting potential undervaluation in the market, especially in light of recent capital increases from institutional investors [4][3]. - The earnings forecast for the company remains strong, with projected net profits of 48.1 billion, 56.6 billion, and 64.1 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10, 8, and 7 [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is part of the State Power Investment Corporation and is focused on integrating its coal, hydro, and renewable energy assets to create a leading clean energy platform [3][4]. Financial Data - As of September 30, 2024, the company's closing price is HKD 3.71, with a market capitalization of HKD 459 billion and a PB ratio of 0.76 [2]. - The total assets amount to 325,581 million RMB, with net assets of 100,271 million RMB, translating to a net asset value per share of 4.46 RMB [2]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 44,262 million RMB in 2023 to 58,543 million RMB by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% [5]. - The net profit is expected to increase significantly, with a forecasted growth rate of 80.8% in 2024 compared to 2023 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lenovo Group is "Buy" (首次) [1] Core Views - Lenovo Group is a leading player in the PC market and a comprehensive service provider for hardware and software [1] - The PC market is showing signs of recovery, with Lenovo being the first to launch AIPC products, which are expected to drive business growth [1][20] - The demand for AI servers is increasing, driven by the rapid iteration of AI models, and Lenovo's infrastructure solutions are positioned to benefit from this trend [1][50] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Lenovo Group was established in 1984 and is a global leader in ICT, covering personal computers, smartphones, tablets, servers, and data center solutions [7] - The company has undergone three phases: focusing on PC business (1984-2013), deepening server business transformation (2014-2018), and expanding solution business strategy (2019-present) [7] IDG: PC Market Recovery and AIPC Product Growth - The global PC market is recovering, with Q1 and Q2 2024 shipments of 59.8 million and 64.9 million units, respectively, showing year-on-year growth [1][20] - Lenovo maintains the top position in global PC shipments, with a market share of 22.7% in Q2 2024 [22] - The product matrix includes high-end, mid-range, and budget options, catering to various market segments [25][32] ISG: AI-Driven Server Growth - The demand for AI servers is expanding, with global server shipments expected to reach 16.09 million units in 2024 [50] - Lenovo's ISG business generated $8.92 billion in revenue in FY2024, accounting for 14.6% of total revenue [15] - The ThinkSystem series is the core product line for the ISG business, offering various server types [59] SSG: Comprehensive IT Solutions - The SSG business provides end-to-end IT solutions, including support services, operations services, and project solutions [16] - In FY2024, SSG generated $7.47 billion in revenue, representing 12.3% of total revenue [16] Financial Analysis - Revenue projections for Lenovo Group are $56.86 billion, $62.60 billion, and $68.65 billion for FY2024, FY2025E, and FY2026E, respectively [2] - The net profit for FY2024 is projected at $1.01 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 37.1% [2] Market Position and Strategy - Lenovo's strategic layout includes three major business groups: IDG, ISG, and SSG, which cover AI-enabled smart terminals, AI-driven infrastructure, and AI-native services [8][9] - The company is focused on developing new smart device products and solutions, enhancing its market position in the AI and server sectors [13][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [2][3] Core Views - Geely's wholesale sales in September reached 202,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 18.5% and a month-on-month increase of 11.4%. Cumulatively, from January to September, total sales reached 1.49 million units, up 29.4% year-on-year [2] - The company's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales in September were 91,134 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 69.7% and a month-on-month increase of 20.7%, with a penetration rate of 45.1% [2] - Geely's brands performed well, with the Galaxy brand selling 29,047 units in September and a cumulative total of 115,100 units from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 249.8% [2] - The launch of the Zeekr 7X SUV and the pre-sale of the new Geely model Star Wish are expected to strengthen the product cycle and drive sales growth [2] - Export sales reached a new high in September, with 39,183 units exported, accounting for 19.4% of total sales, a year-on-year increase of 42.1% [2] - The report forecasts revenues of 224.78 billion, 268.69 billion, and 298.83 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with net profits of 15.4 billion, 12.2 billion, and 15.8 billion yuan respectively [2][3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - September wholesale sales: 202,000 units, +18.5% YoY, +11.4% MoM - NEV sales in September: 91,134 units, +69.7% YoY, +20.7% MoM, 45.1% penetration rate - Cumulative sales from January to September: 1.49 million units, +29.4% YoY [2] Brand Performance - Galaxy brand: September sales of 29,047 units, cumulative sales of 115,100 units, +249.8% YoY - Zeekr brand: September sales of 21,333 units, cumulative sales of 142,873 units, +81.0% YoY - Lynk brand: September sales of 25,803 units, cumulative sales of 195,603 units, +39.9% YoY [2] Product Launches - Zeekr 7X launched on September 20, with over 20,000 orders in the first week - Star Wish pre-sale started on September 14, expected to launch on October 9 [2] Export Growth - September export sales: 39,183 units, +42.1% YoY - Cumulative exports from January to September: 314,000 units, +61.9% YoY [2] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026: 224.78 billion, 268.69 billion, 298.83 billion yuan - Net profit projections for 2024-2026: 15.4 billion, 12.2 billion, 15.8 billion yuan - EPS projections: 1.53, 1.21, 1.57 yuan [2][3]