更多一手调研纪要录音和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 中控技术 2025 瑞银大中华研讨会:2025年增长机会更新 得益于合同确认及政策推动,Q424收入环比改善 公司管理层参加此次研讨会,分享了需求相关趋势。管理层指出Q424收入 环比恢复增长,并预计2024年收入增长10-15%。经营亮点包括:a)政府 刺激政策影响(如设备以旧换新政策)逐渐展开,2025年应会进一步推动 需求。管理层估计政府补贴对企业设备升级成本的覆盖程度平均约为20%, 因此制造业企业或仍谨慎对待支出。b)化工和石化业务收入保持稳定增 长。c) 海外业务订单增长约50%。d)利润率扩张:得益于收入结构更为 健康,毛利率应会实现同比增长。随着组织结构调整计划实施,公司员工规 模已从6,400人减少到5,300 人。 2025年展望 管理层给出的2025年增长目标与2024年相似:其中,在政府大规模投入新 疆煤化工的支撑下,化工和石化业务有望保持稳定;2024年钢铁行业需求 持续疲软,但在设备进口替代大力推进的背景下,2025年需求有望出现拐 点。软件业务SaaS转型稳步推进,通过降低采用门槛,公司实现对中小企业 市场的加速渗透。 ...

管理层出席了在上海举行的2025瑞银大中华研讨会。管理层预计2024年全 年收入实现正增长,但净利润同比下降(不过,毛利率提升以及降本举措推 动Q424净利润为正)。至于2025年,管理的目标是收入增长百分之十几, 且净利润增速高于收入增速。在客流量和客单价的双重推动下,同店销售增 长预计将从2024年的持平(客流量正增长,客单价负增长)逐渐恢复 到2025年的正增长。至于扩张,公司预计2025年自建及并购门店减少,但 加盟门店增加。 2025年行业整合可能会加速 更多一手调研纪要录音和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 快评 大参林医药集团 2025瑞银大中华研讨会:期待2025年盈利明显 修复 2025年收入增长目标为百分之十几 管理层估算,由于宏观和监管挑战,行业60-70%的药店2024年利润恶化。 管理层预计,未来,围绕药房合规性的严格监管审查会成为常态;对药品追 溯码的要求(预计2025年年中)可能会进一步推动不合规的药房退出市 场。全行业药店总数可能会在未来几年内减少10-20万家,更多药店可能会 选择加盟头部连锁品牌。根据管理层,一级市场的估值已从2024年初 的0.7-0.8倍市销率下降 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 37.30, indicating an expected upside from the current price of RMB 30.39 [5][6][24]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on both organic growth and potential acquisitions to achieve its equity incentive goals despite market pressures in 2025 [2]. - The gypsum board market is expected to remain stable in demand, with the company implementing a pricing strategy aimed at maintaining volume while increasing prices [3][4]. - The company is actively seeking acquisition opportunities in the waterproofing and coatings sectors, although it acknowledges that large-scale negotiations can be lengthy [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The company reported that the price of its Dragon brand gypsum board was affected by foreign brand price reductions in Q4, but prices have started to recover in December [2]. - The overall gypsum board industry demand is anticipated to be stable in 2025, with the company focusing on maintaining price stability and optimizing product structure [3]. Business Strategy - The waterproofing business experienced unexpected growth in 2024, but pricing pressures are expected in 2025 due to industry changes [4]. - The company has set ambitious long-term goals for its coatings business, with significant revenue growth reported in 2024 [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 27.016 billion in 2024 to RMB 28.202 billion in 2025, with net profit expected to increase from RMB 4.066 billion to RMB 4.486 billion during the same period [7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 2.41 in 2024 to RMB 2.66 in 2025 [7]. Valuation - The valuation is based on a segmented price-earnings ratio approach, assigning multiples of 13, 15, and 25 times the expected earnings for gypsum board, waterproofing, and coatings respectively for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Oriental Yuhong with a target price of RMB 15.65, based on a 20x 2025 expected P/E ratio [5][6] Core Views - Oriental Yuhong's management remains cautious about domestic demand in 2025 but is optimistic about overseas market expansion, targeting overseas revenue of RMB 1.5-2 billion [2][4] - The domestic waterproofing market is expected to remain under pressure in 2025, with demand projected to decline by 10-20% YoY, following a 20-30% decline in 2024 [3] - The company has adjusted its 2025 domestic revenue forecast downward to RMB 30 billion from the previous RMB 32.7 billion [3] Domestic Market Performance - In Q4, Oriental Yuhong achieved positive YoY growth in shipments, with a notable 40% YoY increase in civil building materials [2] - The company has been actively managing accounts receivable, achieving a significant YoY reduction by the end of 2024 [2] Overseas Expansion - Oriental Yuhong is accelerating its overseas expansion, with its US factory (Phase 1) expected to commence operations by September-October 2025 [4] - The company is exploring opportunities to establish additional factories in the US and is actively expanding into Southeast Asia and Saudi Arabia [4] - Despite the overseas expansion, the company plans to maintain cautious capital expenditures and will consider dividend payouts based on cash flow conditions [4] Financial Metrics - The company's market capitalization is RMB 32.0 billion (USD 4.37 billion), with a P/B ratio of 1.1x as of December 2024 [6] - The 52-week stock price range is RMB 17.85-9.86, with a current price of RMB 12.71 as of January 15, 2025 [6] - The report forecasts a 23.1% potential stock price increase and a 0.9% dividend yield, resulting in a total expected return of 24.1% [9] Industry Outlook - The waterproofing industry is undergoing accelerated consolidation due to cash flow pressures, with prices expected to stabilize due to profitability considerations [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to the company with a target price of Rmb 21.00 based on a 20x multiple of the estimated earnings per share for 2025 [5][6][24]. Core Insights - The primary growth driver for the company in 2025 is expected to come from the information industry, particularly through PCB equipment, which will maintain growth momentum from 2024 due to overseas expansion by small and medium-sized manufacturers, increased demand for server-related PCBs, and recovery in orders for Android smartphones [2][3]. - The company anticipates improvements in other business segments in 2025, with growth largely dependent on overall industry trends and government policy support. The semiconductor and panel business is expected to stabilize, while the new energy lithium battery segment will benefit from major customer order recoveries [3][4]. - Profitability is projected to improve in 2025 due to an enhanced product mix and economies of scale from revenue growth, alongside a significant reduction in stock-based compensation [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of Rmb 14.634 billion for 2024, increasing to Rmb 15.658 billion in 2025, with net profit expected to rise from Rmb 1.592 billion in 2024 to Rmb 1.105 billion in 2025 [7]. - The EBITDA margin is projected to improve from 1.5% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025, reflecting better operational efficiency [7]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company holds a leading market share in the laser equipment industry in China, supplying low and high-power laser equipment, PCB equipment, and LED devices, with significant applications in consumer electronics, display panels, and new energy batteries [10]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a market capitalization of Rmb 26.7 billion (approximately US$3.64 billion) and a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8x for 2024, which is expected to adjust to 24.1x in 2025 [6][7].

更多一手调研纪要录音和海外投行报告加V: shuinu9870 快评 新洁能 2025瑞银大中华研讨会:汽车和服务器数据中 心应用的2025年展望乐观 25年需求主要由汽车和服务器应用带动 公司管理层出席了2025瑞银大中华研讨会。公司主要分享了1)25年下游需 求展望,2)公司在汽车及服务器应用上的进展,3)各产品的竞争格局变 化。按各下游应用来看,公司对汽车电子和数据中心板块的成长较为乐观。 其中,公司和主要服务器厂商、电源模块厂商、服务器核心电源管理芯片厂 商都有紧密合作,公司预计2025年其将继续受益于国内外客户的数据中心 建设。对于其他下游应用,公司预计工控板块的电动工具及无人机客户的采 购需求仍将保持良好的增长,光伏储能的需求有望恢复,而消费电子应用或 将保持平稳。 公司对汽车电子应用的增长可见性乐观 自H224以来,受到政策影响,公司看到汽车客户的国产化诉求明显增加。 公司产品(主要为SGT MOS)也从车身控制域成功拓展至动力域/安全相关 领域,后者目前由海外供应商占据主导份额。公司车规级料号增长迅速,目 前已有200颗左右。考虑到汽车产品导入周期较长,目前各项目已陆续从小 批量供货逐步转向大 ...

更多一手调研纪要录音和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 快评 公牛集团 2025 瑞银大中华研讨会 : 插排业务或间接受 益于"以旧换新"补贴 2025年展望:目标双位数营收/盈利增长 公司参加了2025 瑞银大中华研讨会。管理层表示,在房地产政策利好和"以 旧换新"补贴刺激消费的背景下,Q424收入仍具韧性 (相比 3Q24:营收/ 盈利增长 5%/3%)。对于2025年,管理层表示内部财务目标是双位数营 收/盈利增长,驱动因素包括:(1)转换器业务(主要为插排)收入稳健增 长,由持续产品创新带动;(2)开关插座业务收入保持韧性,由市占率增长 带动;(3) 新能源相关业务快速增长;(4) 智能照明收入增长高于行业水平 (管理层表示,2024年增长20%,而传统照明行业则录得约两位数降 幅)。 开关插座: 市占率提升有望稳定收入 房地产市场的影响是市场的主要关注点,尤其在开关插座领域。尽管自 2024年 9 月以来房地产政策更加有利,但管理层预计 2025年家装需求仍 将承压,可能会下降个位数至低双位数;但是,在市占率增长的推动下,其 开关插座业务仍可能实现稳健的收入增长。管理层表示,公牛的市场份额已 ...

纪要录音和海外投行报告加V: shuinu9870 华润微 - A 盈利能力正待改善;维持"中性"评级 上周,我们参观了华润微掩模项目的新生产基地,并参加了投资者开放 日活动。重点纪要如下:1)受消费电子产品相关需求的支撑,2024年4 李度表现好于预期;2)新的12英寸晶圆厂产能准备就结,有望推动收入 增长;3)在功率半导体产品行业性供应过剩背景下,产品组合改善有望 稳定利润率。我们目前预计 2024-26 年销售额/盈利年复合增长率分别为 10%/9%。我们维持"中性"评级,等待更具韧性的需求前景或盈利能力 改善的能见度提高。 中国 证券研究 2025年1月15日 中性 688396.SS, 688396 CH 股价(2025年1月15日):45.80元 ▼ 目标价(2025年12月):38.00元 之前(2025年12月):41.00元 证券研究报告 科技 证券分析师:冯令天 AC (86-21) 6106 6359 billy.feng@ipmorgan.com 登记编号: S1730520030005 证券分析师:许日 (86-21) 6106 6318 ri.xu@jpmchase.com 登记编 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Neutral** rating to China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation (China Duty Free) with a 12-month target price of RMB 71.50 [4][5] Core Views - China Duty Free expects **stable sales in Hainan** and **positive year-on-year growth in airport sales** by 2025 [1] - The company is adopting a **"small batch + high frequency" procurement strategy** to maintain normal inventory levels [1] - If more South Korean duty-free operators cease cooperation with Chinese daigou (shopping agents), it could lead to **consumption repatriation**, benefiting Chinese duty-free operators [1] - The current **Hainan duty-free shopping policy**, including the RMB 100,000 annual shopping quota per person, is expected to remain unchanged for the next 3-5 years [2] - The company is increasing its **market share in Hainan**, and **consumption vouchers** are seen as an effective way to boost duty-free sales, with every RMB 1 voucher generating RMB 16-17 in incremental revenue [2] - **Chanel** is considering entering Haitang Bay, which could further enhance the region's appeal [2] - Airport duty-free sales are expected to grow positively in 2025, driven by the recovery of outbound travel and the boom in inbound tourism, though challenges remain, including competition from cross-border e-commerce platforms and slow introduction of luxury brands [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts **revenue growth** for China Duty Free, with revenues expected to increase from RMB 71.608 billion in 2024E to RMB 113.538 billion in 2028E [9] - **Net profit** is projected to rise from RMB 6.781 billion in 2024E to RMB 10.873 billion in 2028E [9] - **Earnings per share (EPS)** is expected to grow from RMB 3.28 in 2024E to RMB 5.26 in 2028E [9] - The **EBIT margin** is forecasted to remain stable at around 12.4% to 12.7% from 2024E to 2028E [9] - **ROIC (EBIT)** is projected to increase from 33.5% in 2024E to 45.2% in 2028E [9] Valuation and Market Data - The **target price of RMB 71.50** is based on a DCF valuation with a WACC of 9.4%, implying a 22x/19x 2024/25E PE ratio [4] - The stock price as of January 15, 2025, was RMB 61.29, with a **52-week range of RMB 53.76 to RMB 89.68** [5] - The company has a **market capitalization of RMB 127 billion (USD 17.3 billion)** and a **free float of 25%** [5] - The **average daily trading volume** is 21,368 thousand shares, with an average daily turnover of RMB 1.493 billion [5] Industry and Competitive Landscape - The **duty-free industry** faces structural challenges, including competition from cross-border e-commerce platforms, slow introduction of luxury brands, and the dilution effect of downtown duty-free stores [3] - The company is negotiating **airport pickup point fees**, and airports may become shareholders in downtown duty-free stores [3] - The **policy prohibiting individual shareholders** in duty-free entities remains unresolved, with individuals still holding over 30% of RiRi shares [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of RMB 51.48 for the company [4][5]. Core Insights - The management expects overall revenue growth in 2025 to be in the high single digits to low double digits, with net profit margin improving by 20-30 basis points compared to 2024 [1]. - The improvement in profit margins is attributed to enhanced profitability from new business, cost reduction initiatives including multi-network integration, and the release of operational leverage [1]. - The company anticipates a gradual increase in the dividend payout ratio, which was 40% last year, expected to rise steadily by 2028 [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a revenue of RMB 258.409 billion in 2023, with projections of RMB 283.659 billion for 2024 and RMB 315.882 billion for 2025 [7]. - The EBITDA margin is projected to improve from 3.8% in 2023 to 5.0% in 2024 [7]. Market Position and Competition - The company holds over 50% market share in the return logistics business on platforms like Douyin, with daily returns averaging 5 million items, representing 12-13% of total volume [3]. - The management believes that the recent integration of JD Logistics into the Taobao platform will have a limited impact on the company, as Taobao buyers can now choose to use SF Express for deliveries [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a projected stock price increase of 26.8% and a dividend yield of 2.3%, leading to an expected total return of 29.1% [8]. - The company’s market capitalization is reported at RMB 202 billion (approximately USD 27.6 billion) [5].