中金公司 2025 年政府工作报告联合解读 20250305 政府将小幅提振国内需求放在首位，特别强调消费的重要性，包括供给侧和需 求侧的专项行动。例如，通过以旧换新等措施增加消费场景。此外，在结构转 型方面也有表述，如加大结构转型指数等。 2025 年政府工作报告的主要经济目标和政策支持力度是什么？ 2025 年政府工作报告设定了增长目标约为 5%，这一目标符合市场预期。此外， CPI 目标定为 2%左右，比往年略低，显示出务实的态度。财政政策方面，预算 提高了 4%，达到 1.6 万亿元；地方政府专项债从 3.9 万亿元提升至 4.4 万亿元， 增加了 5,000 亿元。超长期国债赤字为 1.3 万亿元，比去年增加 3,000 亿。货 币政策则保持适度降准降息，以灵活应对经济形势。 • 政府工作报告显示，2025 年财政政策更加积极，预算赤字率提高，地方政 府专项债和超长期国债均增加，货币政策保持适度宽松，通过降准降息灵 活应对经济形势，关注消费提振和结构转型。 • 房地产政策方面，政府强调推动市场止跌回稳，通过发行专项债支持地方 收储，扩大专项再贷款和商业贷款使用范围，显示出对房地产市场的重视， 但需关 ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 04 March 2025 Humanoid Robot Expert Call Takeaways (Part II): Commercialization is closer than you think We hosted an expert call today (Mar. 4) with Dr. Nicholas Nadeau, a distinguished figure in the fields of AI and robotics. Dr. Nadeau, with his extensive experience as a former CTO and founder in high-impact tech sectors, has been at the forefront of developing humanoid robots and integrating AI into practical applications. His tenure as CTO of 1X (formerly Halodi Robotics) s ...

摘要 Q&A 最近机械板块的市场环境和经济变化有哪些显著趋势？ 最近市场环境和经济变化对机械板块产生了显著影响。工程机械、AI 驱动的 AIDC 以及机器人等细分方向都出现了新的发展趋势。特别是智能制造领域，市 场关注度较高，我们进行了相关调研，寻找低位且预期不足的个股，如八方股 份和捷昌驱动。 中金公司 高端装备半月谈 • 电助力自行车行业库存周期接近尾声，八方股份受益于新老客户需求叠加， 预计 2025 年和 2026 年收入显著提升。关注电机设计与力矩传感器核心能 力在人体相关领域的迁移。 • 复合集流体产业化加速，各大厂商已下达 G 瓦级订单，材料厂商产能利用 率预计在 2025 年下半年满负荷运转，并启动大规模扩产。设备公司和材料 公司有望迎来投资机会。 • 艾立特发布智能底座，标志着战略调整，从工业机器人系统集成应用向人 形机器人生态建设转型。关注其在智能制造领域的进展及第二成长曲线的 挖掘。 • AIDC 基建中备电柴油发电机组板块行情持续，供需缺口短期难以缓解，量 价提升逻辑在招标中不断验证。玉柴国际合资公司业绩亮眼，自主品牌验 证成功并逐步批量出货。 • 工程机械行业需求呈现扁平化上行周期， ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for stocks over commodities and bonds, suggesting a preference for equities in the current market environment [5]. Core Insights - Recent market style rotation has shifted towards small-cap and growth styles, influenced by various macroeconomic factors and market sentiment [3]. - The industry rotation model recommends sectors such as steel, media, integrated communications, retail, and pharmaceuticals, based on liquidity and research performance [4]. - Active quantitative stock selection strategies have shown varied performance, with small-cap strategies outperforming others [6][10]. Summary by Sections Market Style Rotation - The current market style is leaning towards small-cap growth, with macro indicators slightly favoring small caps and market sentiment benefiting growth styles [3]. - Key drivers include a decline in new investor numbers and macroeconomic indicators [3]. Recommended Industries - The recommended sectors for March include steel, media, integrated communications, retail, and pharmaceuticals, selected based on an optimized industry rotation model [4]. - Media, integrated communications, and pharmaceuticals excel in liquidity, while steel scores high in research performance [4]. Asset Allocation Views - The report suggests a hierarchy of asset allocation: stocks are preferred over commodities, which in turn are preferred over bonds [5]. - The overall sentiment towards stocks is optimistic, supported by macroeconomic indicators, although caution is advised due to potential resistance in major indices [5]. Active Quantitative Stock Selection Strategies - The small-cap digging strategy has shown the best performance, with a 9.9% return in February, significantly outperforming small-cap indices [6]. - The investment behavior quality evaluation strategy has also performed well, yielding a 9.9% return in February and over 10% year-to-date [7][8]. Growth Strategy Performance - The ChatGPTBoost growth selection strategy yielded a 4.5% return in February, with a slight excess return over equity fund indices [9]. - The strategy focuses on identifying stocks with improving profitability and sustainable ROE [9]. Future Strategy Recommendations - Future recommendations emphasize the high valuation and market participation of small-cap and growth strategies, suggesting continued focus on these areas [11]. - Specific strategies to watch include small-cap digging and XGBoost for growth selection [11].

中金公司 加配化工龙头正当时 摘要 Q&A 为什么在当前时间点看好化工基础行业的龙头企业？ 当前看好化工基础行业龙头企业主要基于以下三个因素： 首先，房地产市场出 现了明显的企稳迹象。截止 2025 年 2 月 28 日，30 个大中城市商品房成交面积 累计同比增长 3%，十个核心城市二手房成交面积同比增长 45%。由于化工材料 主要用于新房和二手房装修，因此房地产市场的回暖对化工需求形成了显著支 撑。此外，各地政府在首付和利率方面推出了一系列优惠政策，进一步推动了 房地产市场的复苏，从而带动了对化工产品的需求。 其次，两会即将召开，政 策层面可能会出台一系列有利于化工行业发展的措施。李强总理在二月份常务 会议上指出，将优化产业布局，推动落后低效产能退出，增加高端产能供给。 这些政策预期将在两会期间或之后逐步落实，对炼油、乙烯及部分化工领域产 • 房地产市场企稳回暖，十个核心城市二手房成交面积显著增长，叠加各地 政府的优惠政策，有效支撑了化工材料的需求，尤其是在新房和二手房装 修领域。 • 两会政策预期利好化工行业，优化产业布局，淘汰落后产能，增加高端产 能供给，尤其对炼油、乙烯等领域产生积极影响，财政政策稳 ...

各位投资者大家晚上好，我是中金风光公用环保组的研究员刘佳妮。今天也是我们组今年 的第二次的半月谈的电话会议。也今天会分四个部分然后来给大家分别讲一下电力公用这 个板块以及光伏和风电产业链的我们最新的观点。包括我们最新的一些行业的一些近况的 了解。首先今天从我这边电力开始，我这边电力主要今天跟大家汇报的是，我们上周也是 发布的 2025 年的这个展望。2025 年我们的这个展望报告名字叫诺贝儿下的压力和机遇 共存。这个诺贝塔其实也表明了我们对于 2025 年的电力板块的这个行情，包括基本面， 其实我们觉得可能对比 2024 年是会偏弱一些。 压力主要先讲一下，就是我们认为压力来自于两个方面。那一个方面是基本面的瑕疵。我 们可以看到就是 2021 年到 2024 年四年间，全国的合计的新增装机达到了 11.52 亿千瓦。 基本上可能同比的隐含的过去四年的一个年复合增速达到了 11.4%。这个是大幅的高于同 期 7%的一个用电需求的一个增长。所以整体在考虑到 2025 年，我们觉得用电需求可能 会有所放缓，至 5.5%到 6%的这个区间，这个基准假设可能是在 5.8%的这么一个水平。 主要也是考虑了可能进入到十 4 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the market, particularly highlighting a structural bull market driven by sentiment and expectations, with a technical bull market defined by a price increase exceeding 20% [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing revaluation of Chinese assets, with significant attention on foreign capital flows and their potential impact on market dynamics [2][22]. - It identifies three key characteristics of the current market: sentiment-driven, expectation-driven, and structurally focused, suggesting that the market is heavily influenced by a few leading technology stocks [4][6][19]. - The report also discusses the importance of understanding the structural nature of the market, where only a small percentage of stocks are outperforming the index, indicating a narrow base for the market rally [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The market has shown a strong upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index reaching new highs, particularly driven by technology stocks [2][3]. - Recent fluctuations in capital flows, including significant inflows and subsequent outflows, reflect investor sentiment and market volatility [3][8]. Foreign Capital Dynamics - Foreign capital has been increasingly active, with notable inflows observed, particularly in the technology sector, suggesting a potential for further investment [9][10]. - The report estimates that foreign capital allocation to Chinese stocks is currently low, indicating substantial room for growth if conditions improve [12][13]. Structural Market Characteristics - The report highlights that the current market is characterized by a structural bull market, where a limited number of stocks are driving the overall index performance [5][6]. - It notes that understanding the dynamics of these leading stocks is crucial for investors aiming to outperform the market [6][19]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with clear structural trends, particularly technology, while being cautious of market sentiment fluctuations [15][21]. - The report suggests a balanced approach, advocating for strategic entry during market dips and careful monitoring of market conditions [15][21].

Investment Ratings - Sanhua is rated as Buy, LeaderDrive and Moons' Electric are rated Neutral, and Best Precision is downgraded to Neutral from Buy [2][4][5][20]. Core Insights - The report updates market share expectations for key humanoid robot supply chain stocks, reflecting a more optimistic outlook for Sanhua, while indicating increased competition for Best Precision [1][4]. - Sanhua is expected to achieve a market share of 70% in the high-spec humanoid robot actuator assembly business by 2025E-30E, up from a previous estimate of 50% [2]. - LeaderDrive's net income forecasts for 2024E-30E have been revised up by up to 21% due to its entry into the PRS business, projecting a 5% global market share [4]. - Best Precision's long-term global PRS market share forecast has been revised down to 10% from 15% due to anticipated competition [4][21]. - Moons' Electric is expected to see an 8% increase in net income forecasts for 2024E-30E, driven by potential upgrades in content value [5]. Company Summaries Sanhua - Sanhua is a leader in HVAC control and thermal management components, with a strong growth potential in the auto/EV sector [33]. - The 12-month target price for Sanhua is set at Rmb36.5, based on a 21x 2030E P/E [34]. LeaderDrive - LeaderDrive is recognized as a domestic leader in China's harmonic reduction gear market, with a focus on expanding its applications [41]. - The 12-month target price for LeaderDrive is Rmb134.6, based on a 45x 2030E P/E [42]. Best Precision - Best Precision aims to become a competitive supplier of planetary roller screws for humanoid robots, with a projected 10% global market share starting in 2027E [37]. - The 12-month target price for Best Precision is Rmb28.2, based on a 32x 2030E P/E [38]. Moons' Electric - Moons' Electric is positioned to become a key player in the humanoid robot coreless motor supply chain, with expectations for increased revenues from coreless motor applications [45]. - The 12-month target price for Moons' Electric is Rmb53.3, based on a 37x 2030E P/E [46].

Investment Rating - Envicool and Kehua are rated as Buy, while Kstar is rated as Neutral [2][12][22] Core Insights - Alibaba's significant increase in capital expenditures, amounting to Rmb31.8 billion (approximately US$4.35 billion) in Q4 2024, reflects a 260% year-over-year growth and an 80% quarter-over-quarter growth, primarily driven by cloud infrastructure investments [2][7] - The anticipated increase in cloud revenue and capital expenditures from Alibaba, a leading hyperscaler in China, is expected to positively impact the demand and supply dynamics within the Chinese data center industry [2][12] - Envicool and Kehua are highlighted as having substantial revenue exposure to data center and server markets, with 54% and 37% of their total revenue in 2024E coming from these sectors, respectively [2][12] - Kstar's revenue exposure to data centers is 62%, but it is split between domestic and international markets, leading to a Neutral rating due to lower exposure to internet and cloud customers [2][12] Summary by Company Envicool - Envicool specializes in precision cooling technology for data centers and energy storage systems, benefiting from the digital economy and carbon reduction trends in China [14] - The company is expected to see strong revenue growth driven by the adoption of liquid cooling technologies, particularly in the context of increasing investments in generative AI [14][16] - The 12-month target price for Envicool is set at Rmb30.2, based on a 2025E P/E of 25x [16] Kehua - Kehua is a leader in the Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) market in China, with a 13% domestic market share and a 3% global market share as of 2022 [18] - The company is expected to achieve revenue and net income CAGRs of 20% and 25% respectively from 2023E to 2025E, driven by growth in the energy storage system sector [18][19] - The 12-month target price for Kehua is Rmb22.2, based on a 2025E P/E of 15x [19] Kstar - Kstar focuses on electric power conversion technology, holding the largest UPS shipment in China for 21 years, with a 9% domestic and 3% global market share in 2022 [22] - The company is projected to deliver revenue and net income CAGRs of 17% and 9% respectively from 2023E to 2025E, primarily driven by growth in PV inverters and residential energy storage systems [22][23] - The 12-month target price for Kstar is Rmb18.2, based on a 2025E P/E of 15x [23]

Investment Ratings - Alibaba: Buy with a 12-month target price (TP) raised to US$160/HK$156 from US$117/HK$114 [1] - Xiaomi: Buy with a 12-month TP increased to HK$58 [2] - Humanoid Robots: Buy-rated companies include Harmonic Drive, Sanhua & Tuopu [6] - Rio Tinto: Buy with a 12-month TP of A$143.70 [10] - NetEase: Buy with a 12-month TP of US$116/HK$181 [11] - Bilibili: Buy with a 12-month TP raised to US$23.7/HK$185 [11] - Laopu Gold: Buy with a new 12-month TP of HKD553 [11] - Mengniu Dairy: Buy with a 12-month TP raised to HK$23.60 from HK$21.80 [13] - Tokyo Electron: Buy with a 12-month TP of ¥35,000 [14] - Foxconn Industrial: Buy with a 12-month TP of Rmb25.84 [15] - BYDE: Buy with a 12-month TP of HK$67.05 [15] Core Insights - Alibaba's eCommerce profits are stabilizing, with a significant upside from AI and cloud services, leading to an increase in revenue growth forecasts for Alibaba Cloud [1] - Xiaomi is enhancing its AI capabilities and expanding its ecosystem, resulting in increased revenue forecasts for 2025-26E by 4%-7% [2] - The global humanoid robot industry is transitioning to volume production, with a potential total addressable market (TAM) of US$38 billion to US$205 billion by 2035E [6] - China's "Two Sessions" are expected to maintain a GDP growth target of "around 5%" and increase the fiscal deficit target to 4.0% of GDP, indicating a focus on fiscal expansion [8] - The Chinese property market shows signs of bottoming, with better policy execution needed to support recovery and increase household confidence [8] Summary by Company Alibaba - 3QFY25 results exceeded expectations, leading to a TP increase and a Buy rating [1] - Cloud revenue growth forecast raised to +23%/+25% for FY26/27E [1] Xiaomi - Positioned to leverage AI for expanding its ecosystem, with revenue forecasts raised by 4%-7% [2] - EPS forecasts lifted by 17-20% due to improved profitability in IoT and EV sectors [2] Humanoid Robots - Industry entering volume production phase with significant demand growth anticipated [6] - Preferred stocks include Harmonic Drive, Sanhua & Tuopu [6] Rio Tinto - 2024 results in line with estimates, maintaining a Buy rating with a strong cash flow outlook [10] NetEase - Strong performance in PC games offsetting mobile slowdown, leading to a Buy rating [11] Bilibili - First positive GAAP profit quarter, positioned to benefit from AI and advertising growth [11] Laopu Gold - Profit warning indicates higher productivity, leading to a TP increase [11] Mengniu Dairy - Strong core profit delivery amid low cycle, with earnings estimates revised up [13] Tokyo Electron - Expected growth driven by advanced memory investments, maintaining a Buy rating [14] Foxconn Industrial - Positive outlook on cloud computing business and AI server shipments [15] BYDE - Anticipated growth in automotive electronics supported by smart driving adoption [15]