中金公司 高端装备：近期热点板块观点汇报 20250608 摘要 华为人形机器人战略聚焦云上大脑与边侧小脑协同、云端仿真和数据合 成，以及持续闭环生态，算法研发是核心，通过真机采集和仿真平台合 成数据，华为云承担关键角色，构建全国性生态网络。 华为自 2017 年起深耕 AI 加机器人领域，2023 年加速发展，通过深圳 聚亨智能创新中心落地及频繁路演，并与多家上市公司合作，加快人形 机器人开发步伐，预计 2025 年下半年在算法和仿真环节取得突破。 近期华为生态链发展迅速，开发者大会推动及华为云与上市公司合作加 速，例如与优必选签约，哈勃投资入股千寻智能，表明华为开放芯片、 算法及仿真平台，共同推进人形机器人发展。 物流领域人形机器人应用增加，德玛科技展示人形机器人分拣系统，永 创智能与泡泡玛特代工厂合作引入包装环节，人形机器人导入有望显著 降低占主营业务成本 3-5%的物流成本。 无人物流小车行业受益于政策支持和技术进步，商业模式逐渐成熟，成 本优势显著，顺丰、京东等企业已开始大规模应用，上下游订单增速迅 猛，预计 2025 年为量产落地元年。 Q&A 6 月份以来，人形机器人板块的热点话题有哪些？ 6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Most Preferred" rating for several companies in the APAC Tech sector, including TSMC, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics, all rated as "Buy" [11][12]. Core Views - The report highlights the significant impact of tariff outcomes on end-demand, indicating that while the effect is material, the exact degree is difficult to quantify [9]. - AI demand is confirmed to be on track, with Nvidia's supply chain accelerating [9]. - A weakening memory cycle is anticipated, with expectations of oversupply for NAND and DDR DRAM from Q3 2025 to Q2 2026 [9]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The smartphone unit growth forecast has been lowered to flat YoY for 2025-2026, while PC growth is expected at +2% for both years [10]. - The report forecasts that the 3MMA YoY semiconductor revenue growth peaked in April 2025, with the next trough expected in Q2 2026 [10]. Key Stock Coverage - Top picks include TSMC and SK Hynix, both rated "Buy," with price targets indicating significant upside potential [11]. - Other recommended stocks include Samsung Electronics, SEMCO, and LG Innotek, all with favorable ratings and price targets suggesting substantial upside [12]. Sector Preferences - The report categorizes APAC Tech stocks into "Most Preferred" and "Least Preferred," with a clear bias towards value stocks in the technology sector [12]. - The report indicates an overweight position in leading-edge foundries and memory semiconductors, while being underweight in back-end equipment and displays [12]. Model Portfolio Performance - The "Most Preferred" portfolio has shown a year-to-date return of -8.5%, while the "Least Preferred" portfolio has returned 9.0% [13]. - Overall, the portfolio has achieved a significant return since inception, indicating strong long-term performance despite recent volatility [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanghai Putailai New Energy Tech Co Ltd is Equal-weight [5][79]. Core Insights - The price target has been adjusted downwards from Rmb14.00 to Rmb13.50, reflecting a 4% decrease [4][5]. - The bull case price target is now Rmb16.00, down from Rmb17.50, while the bear case target is reduced to Rmb9.70 from Rmb10.00 [4][5]. - The report indicates a 9% reduction in EPS estimates for 2025, 11% for 2026, and 8% for 2027, primarily due to the roll forward of valuation from 2024 to 2025 and a decrease in the target multiple from 15x to 14x [3][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is expected to experience lower revenue forecasts of 22% and 20% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, due to lower-than-expected sales volume of anode materials [8]. - An increase of approximately 2 percentage points in gross profit margin (GPM) and net profit margin for 2025 and 2026 is anticipated, attributed to better-than-expected GPM in 1Q25 and lower SG&A expenses [8][21]. Market Position - Shanghai Putailai has diversified its business across various battery materials, including anodes and separators, but faces challenges due to slower-than-expected global EV demand growth [11]. - The company is currently suffering from impairment losses in its anode materials segment, which is negatively impacting profitability [11]. Valuation Metrics - The valuation of Putailai is based on a P/E ratio of 14x for 2025e, which is considered a historical low, implying a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of approximately 1.4x, higher than its peers in the battery material sector [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for key companies including Inovance, AirTAC, and Leader Drive, reflecting a positive outlook for the sector [12]. Core Insights - The Factory Automation (FA) sector is experiencing a cycle inflection with improving demand trends, particularly in project-based and OEM markets. Companies are reporting positive growth across various sectors, driven by new product rollouts and strategic expansions [2][5]. - The competitive landscape is dynamic, with domestic brands outperforming foreign counterparts, and companies are strategically positioning themselves for long-term success despite initial earnings delivery being muted [2][18]. Latest Demand Checks & Order Trends - The Chinese automation market is recovering, with notable growth in sectors such as wind power and lithium batteries. Inovance targets 20% year-over-year growth in IA sales for 2025, while AirTAC projects low-teens revenue growth supported by 3C electronics and automotive sectors [5][25]. - Estun Automation reports solid demand for industrial robots, driven by investments in lithium battery and 3C electronics sectors, with key clients like CATL and BYD expanding capacity [25]. Pricing & Margin Dynamics - Pricing and margin dynamics are showing signs of improvement, with companies like Yiheda Automation targeting a 1.5 percentage points year-over-year improvement in gross profit margin (GPM) by diversifying its customer base [19][20]. - AirTAC is managing pricing pressures effectively, supported by stable inventory levels and strategic capacity relocation from Taiwan to Ningbo [22]. New Product Initiatives - Companies are focusing on innovation as a key driver for growth. Inovance plans to launch humanoid robots in the second half of 2025, while Estun is advancing AI-driven robotics products for manufacturing scenarios [28][29]. - Yiheda Automation is enhancing its automation components and exploring opportunities in the humanoid robot segment, aiming to standardize non-standard parts [29]. Competitive Landscape & Market Share - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with companies like Inovance targeting competition with industry giants such as ABB and Siemens. Yiheda Automation aims to strengthen its position in the non-core FA components niche market [32][33]. - Leader Drive is leveraging its early-mover advantage in the harmonic drive market, maintaining close relationships with leading industrial robot brands [32]. Strategic Expansion & Global Footprint - Companies are accelerating their overseas expansion to tap into new markets. Inovance is building brand recognition through overseas research centers, while Yiheda plans to increase its overseas sales exposure to over 10% in three years [33][39]. - Estun aims to double its European sales by 2025, and Leader Drive is establishing manufacturing bases abroad to enhance its global footprint [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating for Sany Heavy Industry, with a price target of Rmb25.00 set for December 31, 2026 [4][10]. Core Insights - Sany Heavy Industry is experiencing robust performance in both domestic and international markets, with domestic demand remaining resilient despite fluctuations [2][5]. - The company is strategically focusing on medium and large excavators to enhance profitability, while also maintaining market share through competitive pricing [2][6]. - Exports are a significant growth driver, with successful market share expansion in Southeast Asia and Africa, despite challenges in regions like Russia and the Middle East [2][7]. - The mining equipment segment presents substantial opportunities, particularly for large excavators linked to commodity prices, with Sany well-positioned in open-pit mining operations [2][7]. - Sany's strong cash flow generation and focus on high-margin products contribute to its financial stability and self-sufficiency in core components [2][8]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market Trends - Domestic demand for construction machinery remains strong, with a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 10% for excavators [5]. - Management anticipates a 10-15% annual growth rate in the industry, driven by ongoing infrastructure projects and government stimulus policies [5]. Pricing and Competition - The competitive landscape in the construction machinery sector remains intense, particularly for small excavators, but Sany is committed to maintaining stable market share and profitability through strategic pricing [6]. Export Performance - Sany has successfully increased its market share in key regions, with promising demand in Southeast Asia and Africa, while facing challenges in Russia and the Middle East due to economic conditions [7]. Mining Equipment Opportunities - The mining sector offers significant opportunities for Sany, especially in large excavators for open-pit mining, supported by robust mining activity despite commodity price fluctuations [7]. Financial Stability - Sany prioritizes cash flow over revenue growth, ensuring financial stability and minimizing credit risk, with a focus on innovative financing solutions and strategic partnerships [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a target price of 96.00 CNY, based on a 30x forward P/E ratio, which is close to the historical average of peers in the A-share market [2][27][28]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning to a pure semiconductor IDM model, with the divestiture of its ODM business expected to eliminate negative profitability factors. This transition is anticipated to enhance growth prospects and improve profitability [7][12][27]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand in the Chinese market and the recovery of the higher-margin European market. The financial burden is expected to decrease, leading to a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 212% in earnings from 2025 to 2027 [1][12][27]. - The semiconductor business is projected to see revenue growth of 22%, 11%, and 11% in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, despite an expected decline in overall sales due to the divestiture of the ODM business [23][27]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 1.65 CNY, with a significant recovery expected in subsequent years, reaching 2.53 CNY in 2026 and 3.24 CNY in 2027 [4][11][30]. - Revenue for 2025 is expected to decline to 31,480 million CNY, down 57% year-on-year, but net profit is projected to increase by 173% to 2,057 million CNY [11][23][30]. Valuation and Market Position - The company is currently one of the lowest-valued semiconductor firms covered, trading at a 40% discount compared to peers, with a dynamic P/E ratio of 17x [1][12]. - The report highlights the company's strong position as a leading supplier in the discrete semiconductor market, benefiting from the trend of semiconductor localization in China [12][27]. Market Performance - Year-to-date, the company's stock has decreased by 12.4%, underperforming the A-share technology and semiconductor indices by 8% and 10%, respectively [25][26]. - The report suggests that despite the ongoing divestiture of the ODM assets, the current market conditions present a favorable opportunity to reassess the company's potential due to its improving semiconductor business outlook [25][27].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Sungrow with a price target of Rmb63.00 [3][7]. Core Insights - Management is optimistic about the demand outlook for energy storage systems (ESS) in Europe and the Middle East, while the US market faces uncertainties due to tariff hikes and potential changes to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) [2][4]. - Sungrow has resumed shipments of ESS to the US after tariffs dropped to approximately 41%, and management is confident in meeting its full-year shipment targets [2][4]. - Global solar demand is expected to grow by around 10% year-over-year in 2025, although uncertainties remain in the US market [2][4]. - The company anticipates a decline in engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) revenue in 2025 due to regulatory changes, but limited impairment risks are expected [2][4]. Summary by Sections Demand Outlook - Europe: Management expects over 20 GWh of utility-scale ESS installations in 2025, up from 10 GWh in 2024, with potential growth exceeding 60% year-over-year into 2026 [4]. - US: Demand may decline significantly due to recent tariff hikes and uncertainties surrounding the IRA [4]. - China: Utility-scale ESS installations are expected to trend down in 2025 due to regulatory changes, while commercial and industrial (C&I) ESS installations may increase from 7 GWh in 2024 to 15 GWh in 2025 [4]. - Middle East: Optimism remains regarding ESS demand driven by government initiatives for data center deployment [4]. Financial Performance - Sungrow aims to meet a US ESS shipment target of 8 GWh in 2025, having already completed 4 GWh in the first quarter [4]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for US ESS is expected to decrease from over 40% to around 30% due to cost pass-downs from tariff hikes [4][5]. - The inverter business is projected to grow by approximately 10% year-over-year, with a stable competitive landscape in the Middle East [6]. Revenue Projections - The report anticipates declining EPC revenue in 2025 due to reduced distributed generation solar demand [6]. - Management expects lower capital expenditures in the EPC segment and plans to expand overseas EPC business [6]. Valuation - The June 2026 price target of Rmb63 corresponds to a 12-month forward target price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.0x, using sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuations for different segments [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zijin Mining is "Buy" with a target price of HK$24.40, representing an expected return of 36.3% from the current price of HK$17.90 [5]. Core Insights - The Kamoa-Kakula project is expected to contribute approximately 5.4% to Zijin's total net profit in FY24, with a net profit of Rmb1.7 billion from this project in 2024 [2][3]. - The copper production guidance for the Kamoa-Kakula project is set at 520-580kt for 2025, which will account for 20%-22% of Zijin's total copper production guidance for that year [2][4]. - Zijin is planning to spin off and list eight gold mining assets, targeting completion before the end of 2025, subject to approval [3]. - The Manono lithium project is anticipated to commence operations in 2026, with a production guidance of 250-300kt by 2028 [4]. Summary by Sections Kamoa-Kakula Project - The underground mining activities at Kakula Mine have been suspended, while the phase 1+2 processing plant has started processing surface stockpiles totaling 3.8 million tonnes of ore with an average grade of 3.2% copper [2]. - The phase 3 processing plant continues to operate normally, and the overall impact on production and cost guidance is still under investigation [2]. Gold Spin-off - The management of Zijin is actively working on restructuring to facilitate the spin-off and listing of eight gold mining assets, with a completion target before the end of 2025 [3]. Lithium Project - The Manono lithium project is expected to be operational by 2026, with a production target of 250-300kt in 2028 [4]. Financial Overview - Zijin's market capitalization is approximately HK$475.739 billion (US$60.693 billion), with an expected dividend yield of 2.3% and a total expected return of 38.7% [5][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for UBTECH Robotics is "Buy" with a target price of HK$108.00, indicating an expected share price return of 28.0% [6]. Core Insights - UBTECH is confident in delivering 300-500 industrial humanoid robots (Walker S1/S2) in 2025, with a significant order from BYD expected in June 2025 [1][2]. - The bill of materials (BOM) cost for humanoid robots is projected to decrease from Rmb400k (~US$60k) to Rmb200k (~US$30k) by 2027, as production volume increases from 500 units to 10,000 units [1]. - UBTECH is leading in industrial applications of humanoid robots compared to its peers, who are primarily focused on entertainment [1]. Summary by Sections Humanoid Robot Shipments - In addition to the 300-500 units of Walker S1/S2, UBTECH plans to ship 500 units of the Una, 200 units of Walker C, and 200 units of Tiangong Walker [4]. Product Development - The new version, Walker S2, will be introduced in June 2025, with a total cost expected to be 30% lower than Walker S1 due to design improvements [3]. Computing Power - Currently, Walker S1 utilizes one Nvidia Jetson AGX Orin with a TOPS of 275, but UBTECH is considering upgrading to the Jetson AGX Thor for enhanced performance [5]. Payback Period and Lifecycle - The estimated payback period for a humanoid robot is 2.0-2.5 years, with a lifecycle of 5 years based on operational hours of 12-16 hours per day [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on Hengli Hydraulic with a target price of Rmb85.0, indicating an expected share price return of 26.1% and a total return of 27.2% [6][15]. Core Insights - Hengli Hydraulic aims for over 10% year-on-year growth in both revenue and earnings in 2025, primarily driven by a 20% increase in excavator component revenue despite flat non-excavator business [1]. - The Mexico plant is set to ramp up in June 2025, expected to contribute Rmb200m-300m to revenue in 2025, which would represent approximately 50% of Hengli's US revenue [4]. - The impact of US tariffs on demand has been limited, as major US customers can source Hengli's products from non-US plants [1]. Summary by Sections Excavator Business - Revenue from excavator pumps and valves is projected to grow by 30% year-on-year in 2025, while cylinder revenue is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year, driven by market share gains in China [2]. - Monthly production has been at full utilization from March to May 2025, but a decline is anticipated in June due to seasonal factors [2]. Non-Excavator Business - Revenue in the non-excavator segment is expected to remain flat in 2025, primarily due to weaker demand for Aerial Work Platforms (AWP), which accounted for about 10% of total revenue in 2024 [3]. - Non-excavator cylinders are projected to decline by a single digit year-on-year, while pump and valve revenues may still see a year-on-year increase [3]. Mexico Plant - The Mexico plant's revenue contribution is expected to double to Rmb600m-700m in 2026 and potentially reach Rmb3.0bn in the future [4]. Ball Screw and Linear Guide Business - Combined revenue from ball screws, linear guides, and electric actuators is anticipated to reach Rmb250m in 2025, with expectations to double to Rmb500m-600m in 2026, achieving gross and net profit margins of 30% and 10% respectively [5].