Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price yet to be specified [5][4] Core Views - The company reported a 1% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, reaching $2 billion, while gross margin decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 23%. Net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 24% to $80 million [1] - Manufacturing revenue grew by 6% year-on-year, but gross margin declined to 18%, a drop of 2.6 percentage points, with net profit down 25% year-on-year. Retail revenue decreased by 5%, with a gross margin of 33% and a 21% decline in net profit [1] - The overall revenue for April 2025 showed a 1% year-on-year increase, with manufacturing revenue up 11% and retail business still in recovery [1] Summary by Sections Manufacturing (Q1 2025) - Revenue from the U.S. increased by 14%, accounting for 29% of total revenue, while Europe saw an 11% increase, making up 27%. However, revenue from mainland China dropped by 19%, representing 15% of total revenue [2] - The total shipment volume of footwear rose by 5% to 62 million pairs, with an average selling price (ASP) increase of 3% to $20, benefiting from a better order mix [2] - Major production regions include Indonesia (55% of total shipments), Vietnam (31%), and mainland China (10%), with Indonesia and Vietnam showing shipment increases of 4% and 13% respectively, while mainland China experienced an 8% decline [2] Retail (Q1 2025) - The company operated 3,437 direct stores, a decrease of 1% year-on-year [3] - Inventory turnover days increased by 19 days to 138 days [3] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of $8.4 billion, $8.9 billion, and $9.5 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of $400 million, $430 million, and $480 million respectively. Corresponding EPS is projected to be $0.25, $0.27, and $0.30, with PE ratios of 6x, 6x, and 5x [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 gross margin performance significantly exceeded expectations, driven by a strong new vehicle cycle [8] - The company achieved a revenue of 10.02 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 187.1% [8] - The company’s Q1 gross margin reached a historical high of 14.9%, with a year-on-year increase of 16.3% [8] - The company is expanding its sales and service network, with 756 sales stores and 449 service stores covering 279 cities as of March 2025 [8] - The company is actively pursuing localization of production in overseas markets, including plans for local assembly in Malaysia and Europe [8] - The new B platform vehicles are performing well, with the first model, B10, achieving over 10,000 deliveries shortly after launch [8] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards due to the strong new vehicle cycle, with expected net profits of 613.67 million yuan, 4.40 billion yuan, and 7.67 billion yuan respectively [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 16.75 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 35.23% [1] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 613.67 million yuan in 2025E, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.46 yuan in 2025E, with a P/E ratio of 97.41 [1] - The company’s asset-liability ratio is projected to be 76.32% in 2025E [9] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 11.48% in 2025E [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a market price of HKD 1.47 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [2]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates resilience during the current deep adjustment cycle in the real estate industry, with significant improvements in its debt structure and a balanced approach to stability and growth [5]. - The company has achieved notable breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition, becoming one of the few firms to maintain positive sales growth in 2024, entering the industry’s top 20 for the first time [5][8]. - The management team has extensive experience in real estate, with a focus on strategic planning and operational management, which is expected to lead the company towards steady growth [5][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Poly Real Estate Group is a significant platform for the real estate main business and capital market of Poly Group, with a strong backing from its parent company [8][25]. - The company has a robust shareholder structure, with Poly (Hong Kong) Holdings Limited holding 41.45% of the shares, and the ultimate controller being the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [25][27]. Real Estate Development Business - Despite the industry's downturn, the company has maintained a good development momentum, achieving a sales amount of HKD 542 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, and ranking 17th in the industry [5][8]. - The company has focused on high-quality land acquisitions in first- and second-tier cities, with a total land reserve of 13.16 million square meters and an average land cost of HKD 11,000 per square meter [5][8]. - The company’s sales performance in key markets like Shanghai and Jinan has been strong, with a significant portion of sales coming from first- and second-tier cities [5][8]. Financial Analysis - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 40.21 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 182.87 million, down 87.3% [7][15]. - The debt structure has improved, with total interest-bearing liabilities at RMB 70.5 billion, a decrease of 4.7% year-on-year, and a net debt ratio of 77.2% [7][15]. - The company has a solid cash flow position, with cash and cash equivalents of RMB 34.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [7][15]. Diversified Business - The company has developed a diversified business model, including property management, investment properties, and hotel management, with a total managed area of 52.74 million square meters [20][21]. - The property management segment has seen steady growth, with 288 managed projects as of the end of 2024 [20][21]. - The hotel management division has established a presence in eight cities, operating nine hotels in collaboration with international hotel management groups [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for China Modern Dairy [2][9][6] Core Views - The turning point for milk prices is approaching, with expectations for both volume and price increases [3][5] - The company has demonstrated significant cost control, leading to an industry-leading ability to reduce costs [4][13] - The industry is experiencing a pronounced Matthew effect, with the company gaining market share despite overall declines in milk production [5][14] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for China Modern Dairy are estimated at RMB 14.44 billion, RMB 15.28 billion, and RMB 16.06 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][15] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 310 million, RMB 750 million, and RMB 1.1 billion for the same years [6][15] - The company’s gross margin for raw milk business is projected to improve to 31.2% in 2024, reflecting effective cost management [4][13] Market Dynamics - The raw milk price has stabilized at RMB 3.07 per kilogram, indicating a bottom consolidation phase [3][11] - The cattle herd is decreasing at a rate of approximately 40,000 head per month, contributing to the anticipated rebound in milk prices [12][3] - The company’s raw milk sales reached 2.893 million tons in 2024, a 13.6% year-on-year increase, indicating strong performance against industry trends [5][14]

报告要点 [Table_Summary] 福莱特发布 2025 年一季报，2025Q1 实现收入 40.79 亿元，同比下降 29%，环比持平；归母 净利 1.06 亿元，同比下降 86%，环比增长 137%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨福莱特玻璃（6865.HK） [Table_Title] Q1 毛利率环比修复，再证龙头成本优势 邬博华 曹海花 王耀 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490524120006 SFC：BQK482 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 福莱特玻璃（6865.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] Q1 毛利率环比修复，再证龙头成本优势 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 福莱特发布 2025 年一季报，2025Q1 实现收入 40.79 亿元，同比下降 29%，环比持平；归母 净利 1.06 亿元，同比下降 86%，环比增长 137%。 事件评论 丨证券研究报告丨 2025- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In FY25Q4, Alibaba's revenue reached 236.5 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 7%, slightly below Bloomberg's expectations; adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit were 41.8 billion yuan (up 36%, margin of 18%) and 29.8 billion yuan (up 22%, margin of 13%), respectively, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 1.3% and 1.6% [4][5] - The Taobao Group's revenue was 101.4 billion yuan (up 9%), exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3.6%, with adjusted EBITA of 41.7 billion yuan (up 8%); the Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group's revenue was 33.6 billion yuan (up 22%), below expectations by 4.0%, with adjusted EBITA of -3.6 billion yuan (up 12.5%); the Local Life Group's revenue was 16.1 billion yuan (up 10%), slightly below expectations by 1.7%, with adjusted EBITA of -2.3 billion yuan (up 28%); the Cainiao Group's revenue was 21.6 billion yuan (down 12%), below expectations by 14%, with adjusted EBITA of -0.6 billion yuan (up 55%); the Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue was 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), exceeding expectations by 0.8%, with adjusted EBITA of 2.4 billion yuan (up 69%); the Digital Entertainment Group's revenue was 5.6 billion yuan (up 12%), with adjusted EBITA of 0.04 billion yuan [5][6] - The CMR performance of Taobao was impressive, with a year-over-year increase of 12% to 71.1 billion yuan, surpassing Bloomberg's expectations by 3.9%, and the take rate improved year-over-year [6] - The cloud business accelerated growth, with revenue of 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), slightly above Bloomberg's expectations; the capital expenditure for the quarter was 24.6 billion yuan, with a total of 86 billion yuan for FY2025, significantly higher than 32.1 billion yuan in FY2024 [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Alibaba for FY2026-2028 are 1,086.7 billion yuan, 1,200.6 billion yuan, and 1,315.7 billion yuan, representing year-over-year growth of 9.1%, 10.5%, and 9.6%, respectively; Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 169.3 billion yuan, 186.0 billion yuan, and 192.5 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth of 7.1%, 9.9%, and 3.5% [6][10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18.77 per share, based on a current price of HKD 13.2 [7]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to achieve stable growth in its insulin and animal health businesses, while the weight loss drug UBT251 shows significant potential following its licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk [2][7]. - The overall revenue forecast for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected at HKD 145.24 billion, HKD 139.87 billion, and HKD 145.80 billion, with a net profit of HKD 29.07 billion, HKD 25.57 billion, and HKD 27.62 billion respectively [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Antibiotics - The company has established itself as a leader in the penicillin industry with a market share of approximately 50% in both penicillin industrial salt and 6-APA [5]. - The antibiotic business is expected to maintain stability due to the overall industry environment and the company's integrated supply chain advantages [5][7]. 2. Weight Loss: UBT251 - UBT251 has shown promising results in clinical trials, with a 15.1% average weight loss in the highest dose group after 12 weeks, surpassing the performance of similar drugs [2]. - The licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk includes an upfront payment of USD 200 million and potential milestone payments of up to USD 1.8 billion, along with tiered royalties based on net sales [2][7]. 3. Insulin - The company has successfully bid for all six procurement groups in the national insulin procurement process, indicating a stable growth outlook for its insulin business [3][7]. 4. Animal Health - The company anticipates launching 19 animal health products starting in 2025, with over 10 products expected to be approved annually from 2026 to 2028, indicating a strong growth trajectory in this segment [4][7]. 5. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is valued using a comparable company valuation method, with a target market capitalization of HKD 341.02 billion, reflecting its leadership in the antibiotic sector and growth potential in insulin and animal health [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for China Modern Dairy [2][9][6] Core Views - The turning point for milk prices is approaching, with expectations for both volume and price increases [3][5][14] - The company has demonstrated significant cost control, leading to an industry-leading ability to reduce costs [4][13] - The industry is experiencing a pronounced Matthew effect, with the company gaining market share despite overall declines in milk production [5][14] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for China Modern Dairy are as follows: 2025: 14.44 billion yuan, 2026: 15.28 billion yuan, 2027: 16.06 billion yuan [6][15] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 310 million yuan in 2025, 750 million yuan in 2026, and 1.1 billion yuan in 2027 [6][15] - The gross margin for the raw milk business is projected to improve to 31.2% in 2024, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [4][13] Market Dynamics - The raw milk price has stabilized at 3.07 yuan per kilogram, indicating a bottom consolidation phase [3][11] - The cattle herd is decreasing at a rate of approximately 40,000 head per month, contributing to the anticipated rebound in milk prices [12][3] - The company’s raw milk sales reached 2.893 million tons in 2024, a 13.6% year-on-year increase, indicating strong performance against industry trends [5][14]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Horizon Robotics (09660.HK) [4] Core Views - Horizon Robotics is a leading supplier of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and high-level autonomous driving solutions, benefiting from the expansion of the smart driving solutions market driven by the trend of driving equality [4][5] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.644 billion, 5.618 billion, and 8.190 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 52.9%, 54.2%, and 45.8% [4][18] - The current stock price of 7.48 HKD corresponds to price-to-sales ratios of 25, 16, and 11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Company Overview - Horizon Robotics is a market leader in providing ADAS and high-level autonomous driving solutions, focusing on autonomous driving chips and solutions [4][19] - The company has a stable and concentrated ownership structure, with founder Yu Kai holding 53.92% of the voting rights [21][24] - The company has successfully launched four generations of its Journey series chips, which cover a wide range of driving automation needs [28][29] Market Potential - The global market for smart driving solutions is expected to reach 1,017.2 billion CNY by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49.2% from 2023 to 2030 [5][35] - Horizon Robotics holds a 35.9% market share in the Chinese OEM ADAS market as of the first half of 2024, ranking first [5][39] Competitive Advantage - The company is one of the few suppliers that can provide both chips and algorithms, enhancing its competitive edge [6][30] - Horizon Robotics has established a strong customer base and production experience, with its products already integrated into various models from leading automotive manufacturers [6][34] Financial Summary - The company reported revenues of 1.552 billion CNY in 2023, with a projected increase to 3.644 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52.9% [8][18] - The gross margin is expected to improve, with a projected gross margin of 75.1% in 2025 [8][65] - The company's automotive solutions accounted for 96.99% of total revenue in 2024, highlighting its focus on the automotive sector [46][51]

证券研究报告 远大医药 (512 HK) 港股通 传统业务远航稳舵,核药布局大业新程 | 华泰研究 | | | 首次覆盖 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 19 日│中国香港 | 生物医药 | 首次覆盖远大医药，给予"买入"评级，目标价 10.15 港币(25 年 17x PE)。 公司是业务横跨制药科技、生物科技、核药及心血管精准介入的国际化布局 药企。我们看好其发展为中国核药产业最重要的参与者之一。此外,传统业 务(制药科技+生物科技板块)维持稳健增长,为公司未来发展提供坚实基础。 核药：Y90 微球焕发商业化新机，差异化管线聚焦肿瘤诊疗一体化 公司有国内稀缺的兼具商业化产品及差异化管线的核药布局。该板块收入或 于 25-27 年快速爬坡：1)Y90 微球(销售峰值或超 30 亿港币):目前该疗法渗 透率非常低，后续医院准入+新适应症拓展+潜在商保普及或驱动该产品放 量。2)全球进展领先的核药管线:通过 BD 收获 12 款产品(介入治疗+RDC)， 专注肿瘤诊疗一体化。3)成都生产基地投入运营或驱动板块效率提升。 制药科技：专注独家品种潜力挖掘，多 ...