证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券月报】 利差压缩空间有限，以稳为主、逢高配置 ——3 月信用债策略月报 2）结合季节性规律及当前市场环境来看，今年 3 月债市定价影响因素或相对 偏利好，债市收益率或季节性缓慢下行，可把握高流动性交易品种的参与机会。 信用债方面，当前信用利差已处于低位，压缩动能相对有限，整体性价比偏低， 但进入二季度信用债配置力量通常季节性走强，当前信用利差大幅走阔的风险 亦相对可控，月内利差波动高点可择机配置。 信用债策略：信用利差压缩动能偏弱，波动高点可适当布局 1）3y 以内品种基金和理财的配置需求较高，利差或低位波动，可做杠杆套息 策略。收益率主要分布在 1.65%-2.05%区间，利差在 10-40BP 区间。预计利差 继续维持在偏低水平附近震荡，可适当下沉挖掘收益。 2）4-5y 品种利差压缩空间有限，当前性价比偏低，月内利差高点可适当布局。 当前 4-5y 品种信用利差进一步压缩空间较为有限。同时需要注意 5y 摊余债基 进入下半年开放规模将明显下降，5y 品种需求格局或有弱化，利差中枢或逐 渐有上行压力，年中时点可结合市场情绪变化做部分仓位止盈。 3）5y 以上品种从布局票息的角 ...

行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 01 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 房地产 板块表现： 上海发布楼市新政，需求端政策加码 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（26/2/21-26/2/27） 投资要点： 风险提示：房地产量价超预期下行、房地产融资资金趋紧、房地产政策不及预期。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数上升 2.0%、深证成指上升 2.8%、创业板指上升 1.0%、沪深 300 上升 1.1%、房地产（申万）上升 0.6%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分别为：*ST 荣 控(+14.4%)、黑牡丹(+12.7%)、京能置业(+11.9%)、万通发展(+9.9%)、西藏城投(+9.8%)， 涨跌幅后五的分别为：三湘印象(-5.7%)、上实发展(-5.3%)、海南机场(-5.1%)、珠免集 团(-4. ...

• 中东紧张局势骤然升级，黄金白银原油携手大涨 • OpenAI完成1100亿美元融资，估值升至7300亿美元 1、中共中央政治局2月27日召开会议，讨论"十五五"规划纲要草案和政府工作报告。会议指出，做好今 年政府工作，要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化供 给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重 点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保 持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开局。会议强调，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货 币政策，强化改革举措与宏观政策协同。要着力建设强大国内市场，加紧培育壮大新动能，加快高水平 科技自立自强。持续深化重点领域改革，进一步扩大高水平对外开放，扎实推进乡村全面振兴，推动新 型城镇化和区域协调发展。更大力度保障和改善民生，加快推动全面绿色转型，加强重点领域风险防范 化解和安全能力建设。 2、央行决定，自3月2日起，将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率从20%下调至0。这是时隔近3年半央 行再次使用该工具，本次下调远期售汇风险准备金率实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share real estate sector is experiencing a significant rebound, driven by government policies and promotional activities aimed at stimulating housing demand [1][2] Policy Support - The central government has continued to implement supportive measures for the real estate market, including tax rebates for housing exchanges and maintaining low mortgage rates [1] - Local governments are actively canceling purchase restrictions, lowering down payments, providing home purchase subsidies, and promoting trade-in programs, creating a robust support framework for market recovery [1] Market Performance - Core cities are seeing a rebound in second-hand home transactions, with new home promotions leading to increased visits and sales, indicating a reduction in market hesitation [1] - The real estate market is shifting from a downward trend to a stabilization phase, with structural recovery observed, particularly in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, while third and fourth-tier cities focus on inventory reduction [1] Real Estate Stocks - The recent rise in real estate stocks is attributed to a combination of policy expectations and valuation recovery, with industry risks gradually easing and signs of improvement in sales [1] - The undervalued real estate sector is regaining investor attention as the market shows signs of recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector is experiencing significant upward movement, with several companies seeing stock price increases due to promotional activities launched by local real estate firms in Guangzhou [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The real estate sector has shown notable gains, with companies such as Chengdu Investment Holdings and Guangming Real Estate hitting their daily price limits [1] - Other companies like Huaxia Happiness, Greenland Holdings, Lujiazui, and Jindi Group also experienced stock price increases [1] Group 2: Promotional Activities - According to the Guangzhou Real Estate Industry Association, nearly 50 real estate companies have launched promotional activities, offering over 140 properties with New Year discount packages from before the Spring Festival until March 31 [1]

具体来看，首批申报的10单商业不动产REITs有9单登陆上交所、1单登陆深交所，包括保利发展、锦江 国际集团、上海地产、陆家嘴集团、凯德、唯品会、砂之船、银泰百货等项目，参与主体汇聚了央企、 地方国有龙头企业、优质民营企业、外资企业等。项目底层资产涵盖商业综合体、商业零售、办公、酒 店等业态，均位于上海、广州、深圳、武汉、合肥、西安、郑州等城市的核心区域。 近期，首批商业不动产REITs（不动产投资信托基金）项目已正式提交申报，并获中国证监会及交易所 受理，标志着我国REITs市场资产类型正式拓展至商业不动产领域。 商业不动产REITs，是指通过持有商业不动产以获取稳定现金流并向基金份额持有人分配收益的封闭式 公开募集证券投资基金。从全球成熟市场发展经验来看，商业综合体、商业零售、写字楼、酒店等商业 不动产是REITs重要的底层资产。我国商业不动产存量规模庞大，具有通过REITs盘活并拓宽权益融资 渠道的内在需求。在相关政策推动下，目前REITs多层次市场正在加速成型，供给端已形成基础设施 REITs、机构间REITs、商业不动产REITs等多元产品体系。 东源投资首席分析师刘祥东表示，首批商业不动产REIT ...

Group 1 - The global market is focused on the new 15% tariffs announced by President Trump, which may face legal challenges, while bilateral trade agreements remain valid [4][10] - The A-share market is set to open for trading after the Spring Festival, with public funds prepared for investment, anticipating a balanced market structure with a focus on "technology growth" and "Chinese advantages" [5] - The Spring Festival box office has exceeded 5 billion yuan, marking the eighth consecutive year of over 100 million viewers [6] Group 2 - The Chinese government is pushing for modernization in agriculture, emphasizing the integration of various sectors and the development of technology-driven agriculture [2] - The steel industry in China has achieved significant reductions in energy consumption and emissions, with over 80% of crude steel capacity meeting ultra-low emission standards [6] - The AI industry is experiencing strong demand, with companies like SK Hynix and Huagong Technology reporting full order books and operational capacity [8] Group 3 - The global investment landscape is seeing a surge in capital inflow into Latin American markets, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index reaching an eleven-year high [11] - The Chinese yuan has been appreciating against the US dollar, driven by favorable external conditions and increased corporate demand for currency exchange [11]

Group 1 - Strong demand for green, smart, and healthy consumption during the Spring Festival holiday, with sales of smart wearable devices increasing by 130%, smart blood pressure monitors and blood glucose meters up over 60%, and organic food sales rising by 52% [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among decision-makers regarding future interest rate directions, with some members discussing the possibility of rate hikes if inflation remains above 2% [1] - High-profile political changes in Japan as Fumio Kishida is confirmed as the new Prime Minister, with expectations to focus on accelerating budget reviews and implementing the U.S.-Japan trade agreement [1] Group 2 - The Spring Festival holiday sees a booming market for holiday consumption and tourism services, with regulatory measures in place to stabilize prices in accommodation, dining, and other sectors [2] - Despite not being listed on the capital market, the founder of Lu Hua Group has been active in the A-share market, investing approximately 400 million yuan and 1 billion yuan in recent private placements [2] - The appointment of a "post-00" executive at Xiao Fang Pharmaceutical, with the nomination of a 24-year-old as a non-independent director, highlights a generational shift in corporate leadership [2] Group 3 - The China Real Estate Market Outlook report predicts a 6.2% year-on-year decline in new residential sales area in 2026, with a narrowing decline compared to 2025 [3] - Deloitte forecasts a 26% growth in the global semiconductor industry by 2026, reaching a record high of $975 billion, driven by the development of AI infrastructure [3] Group 4 - Barclays Bank reports that the AI and robotics market is expected to grow to a trillion-dollar scale by 2035, marking it as a key investment theme for the next decade [5] - UBS predicts that 2026 will be a critical turning point for humanoid robots, with global shipments expected to reach 30,000 units and the Chinese market surpassing 8.5 billion yuan [5] - The AI boom is driving unprecedented electricity demand, with gas turbine manufacturers experiencing a backlog of orders extending to 2030 [5] Group 5 - The global AI unicorn Anthropic anticipates paying $80 billion in sales shares to cloud service providers by 2029, a significant increase from $1.3 million in 2024 [7] - Bayer proposes a $7.25 billion settlement in the U.S. related to its flagship herbicide Roundup, addressing over 200,000 cancer-related lawsuits [7] - Volkswagen's marine engine and heat pump production division, Everllence, is attracting interest from top private equity firms, with a potential valuation between €5 billion and €6 billion [7]

Group 1: Economic Policies and Initiatives - The article emphasizes the importance of domestic demand in driving economic growth, with a focus on building a strong domestic market and promoting consumption and investment [1] - A special action plan to boost consumption will be implemented, alongside a plan to increase the income of urban and rural residents [1] - The government plans to optimize the use of local government special bonds and enhance the role of new policy financial tools to stimulate private investment [1] Group 2: International Relations and Travel Policies - China will implement a visa-free policy for ordinary passport holders from Canada and the UK starting February 17, 2026, facilitating business, tourism, and family visits for up to 30 days [2] Group 3: Financial Market Developments - Guotai Junan LOF has introduced a compensation plan for investors affected by valuation adjustments, with over 90% of investors expected to receive full compensation [2] - The Chinese financial regulatory authorities have launched a series of measures to optimize refinancing, signaling a supportive environment for brokerage and investment banking businesses [4] Group 4: Consumer Trends and Market Dynamics - Several listed companies in the food and beverage sector are preparing for the Chinese New Year by offering pre-packaged meal options, indicating a trend towards convenience in consumer dining [5] - The demand for gold has surged during the holiday season, with a significant increase in customer traffic at gold stores in Shenzhen, reflecting a robust consumer appetite for luxury goods [13]

Financial Data - In January, China's social financing increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, up by 166.2 billion yuan year-on-year, while RMB loans rose by 4.71 trillion yuan, with a total balance of 276.62 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [1] - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans in January was approximately 3.2%, down by about 20 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for personal housing loans remained stable at 3.1% [3] - The M2 money supply grew by 9% year-on-year, and M1 increased by 4.9% [1] Real Estate Market - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that the month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices in 70 cities narrowed, with first, second, and third-tier cities seeing reductions of 0.4, 0.2, and 0.1 percentage points respectively [1] - Year-on-year, new and second-hand housing prices in 70 major cities continued to decline, with the rate of decrease further widening [1] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market showed a positive trend in the post-Spring Festival period, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 4.85% in the first five trading days of 2024, marking the highest increase in nearly a decade [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down by 1.26% at 4082.07 points on the last trading day before the Spring Festival, with a total market turnover of 2 trillion yuan [4] Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) imposed strict penalties on Tianfeng Securities for illegal financing and information disclosure violations, with fines totaling 25 million yuan [4] - The State Administration for Market Regulation and the Ministry of Commerce announced enhanced supervision of cross-border e-commerce retail imports, focusing on recall regulations [3] Corporate News - Meituan projected a loss of over 23 billion yuan for the previous year, with continued losses expected in the first quarter of this year, primarily due to a significant decline in operating profit in its core local business segment [6] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is considering expanding the scope of confidentiality applications beyond technology and biotech sectors to include traditional industries [5]