更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 主流开发商全年销售回顾与 2026 销售展望 20260104 摘要 Q&A 2025 年全年房地产开发商的销售情况如何? 2025 年全年,前百强房企的累计销售额下降了 19.3%,相比往年的降幅有所收窄。 各梯队房企的表现存在分化,前三强房企的销售额下降 16.7%,前十强下降 18.2%。 相对而言,50-100 强房企的降幅较大,达到24%左右。许多后 50 名的房企在经 历了几年的快速下跌后,销售业绩已经接近"跌无可跌"的状态。 从业绩重心 来看,今年过千亿的房企减少至10家,而2021年有 43 家超过千亿。300 到 1,000 亿规模的房企今年只有 13 家,比去年减少 9 家,100-300 亿规模的房企今年 42 x 调研究要和海堡等方面。 一 争 男 2025 年房地产市场的销售情况如何?哪些项目表现较好? 2025 年房地产市场中表现较好的项目主要分为两类:降价项目和新规产品。降 价项目通过大幅度降价吸引购房者,确保销售量。新规产品在得房率和整体产品 力上明显优于传统住宅,成为市场热点。然而,即便是豪宅,在 2025年下半年 也 ...

专家解读北京楼市新政及效果 20251229 Q&A 北京最新房地产政策出台后，市场表现如何？具体有哪些变化？ 北京于 12 月 24 日出台了新的购房优惠政策，包括限购放松、首付比例调整以 及房贷利率认定等措施。政策实施后，北京房地产市场在周末期间（12 月 25 日至 28 日）出现了显著反应。东部区域如顺义和通州的新房项目待看量较前 一周（12 月 15 日至 21 日）平均上涨 30%，四天内整体提升 39%。成交量 方面，上述区域的成交提升约 13%。 西部区域（西四环至西六环之间）的新 房项目待看量在周末两天内提升 32%，四天内整体提升 27%至 28%。成交量 增长约 21%，其中 130 平米以上改善型客户的成交活跃度较之前一周和一个 北京总体平均租金收益率在 2.1%至 2.5%之间，通州和海淀表现较好， 朝阳、东城和西城下跌较大。长期持有资产的业主开始挂牌出售，表明 这些资产的收益率已经低于 30%至 40%。 预计 2026 年北京房地产市场仍面临压力，缺乏长期人口引进计划。政 府希望通过少花钱、根本性解决问题，可能通过放宽落户政策吸引购房 者，稳定市场，预计 2026 年中旬以后逐步 ...

购买房产除了考虑价格涨跌，还有一项重要指标：租金收益率，也被称为房屋租售比。 据多家房地产分析机构统计，截至2025年11月，全国重点城市挂牌房屋的租金收益率同比小幅提升，达到约2.23%，深圳、重庆及南京 等城市的挂牌租金收益率环比上涨，二线城市中，武汉、成都和重庆的挂牌租金收益率在2.7%以上。 当房价波动大于租金变化时，租金收益率呈现平缓且持续上升的趋势。相较于同时期国有大银行一年期存款利率1.1%，三年期 1.55%，买房出租的收益率则更加可观。 视觉中国图 上海中原地产数据显示，2025年11月，上海二手住宅成交2.05万套，环比增加22.45%，出现年度交易量的第三高点。其中，一些区域 配套成熟、总价低、租金收益率在2%以上的小区交易量高。 12月18日，上海中原地产市场分析师卢文曦在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时表示，上海市中心的小户型二手房交易量高，原因在 于楼市调整过程中，租金收益率已开始逐步高于定期存款利率。 有小区租金收益率超4% 住房租金收益率是指房屋出租收益与房屋总价值之间的比率，比率越高，说明房子的投资回报越高。 以记者在上海市徐汇区武康路看的一套一室一厅二手房为例，总价400万元 ...

购买房产除了考虑价格涨跌，还有一项重要指标：租金收益率，也被称为房屋租售比。 据多家房地产分析机构统计，截至2025年11月，全国重点城市挂牌房屋的租金收益率同比小幅提升，达 到约2.23%，深圳、重庆及南京等城市的挂牌租金收益率环比上涨，二线城市中，武汉、成都和重庆的 挂牌租金收益率在2.7%以上。 当房价波动大于租金变化时，租金收益率呈现平缓且持续上升的趋势。相较于同时期国有大银行一年期 存款利率1.1%，三年期1.55%，买房出租的收益率则更加可观。 上海中原地产数据显示，2025年11月，上海二手住宅成交2.05万套，环比增加22.45%，出现年度交易量 的第三高点。其中，一些区域配套成熟、总价低、租金收益率在2%以上的小区交易量高。 12月18日，上海中原地产市场分析师卢文曦在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时表示，上海市中心的小 户型二手房交易量高，原因在于楼市调整过程中，租金收益率已开始逐步高于定期存款利率。 有小区租金收益率超4% 住房租金收益率是指房屋出租收益与房屋总价值之间的比率，比率越高，说明房子的投资回报越高。 据卢文曦介绍，在上海市场交易热点方面，二手住宅以低总价产品为绝对主力，并且这一 ...

他们一般的操作手法是，以低价买入好地段老破小，只要便宜位置好，越破越好。然后廉价 装修换新，对外出租，获取名义上的高租息，通常在5%以上。出租的同时，博取拆迁预期。 可是我看到有部分专业房产投资客也在卖出高租息产品，难道这不是互道SB？ 我想到的坑点 1、未来出现大量的长租公寓或保租房，替代这种老破小，毕竟年轻人很少愿意租老破小。 2、未来有没有可能出累进制的房产税？ 3、拆迁预期落空？ 老破小租金收益率肯定是不如同地段公寓的，后者房龄短、有电梯，通常租金会更高，而房 价却更低。 就凭不能用公积金直接冲抵房租这一点，老破小在保租房面前就毫无优势，而且租金便宜也 没用，如今的大厂青年从小都是养尊处优的小皇帝，对租金根本不敏感，宁肯多花一倍钱租 崭新有青年社区氛围的保租房，看也不看便宜的老破小。 钟爱一玉 peppps 在上海，大批国企（地产集团，城投集团，陆家嘴集团，各区国企）利用划拨土地开发的低 成本公租房，保租房批量上市60万套，已经在严重冲击散客租房市场，年轻人普遍更喜欢这 种干净整洁装修新有气派大堂健身场所社区食堂咖啡厅，而且还能用公积金冲抵月租金的保 租房社区，对租金并不敏感，以新江湾城的城投宽庭为例 ...

Core Insights - The current real estate market in China is at a cyclical low, facing severe challenges, with a lack of consensus on the core pricing benchmarks for real estate assets [1] - The restructuring of the real estate cycle is fundamentally achieved through the price formation mechanism, which is driven by the micro-level interactions between supply and demand [1] International Insights - Asset management institutions play a crucial role in market restructuring, as evidenced by the cyclical nature of real estate prices in mature economies [2] - The U.S. has experienced significant crises that led to the emergence of new financial instruments like CMBS and REITs, which reshaped the market landscape [4][5] - The shift from "subject credit" to "asset credit" in the U.S. real estate market highlights the importance of institutions that can efficiently connect physical assets with financial markets [5][6] Implications for China's Real Estate Market - The current inventory pressure in China is substantial, with an estimated 4 billion square meters of inventory and a potential de-stocking period of up to 5 years [13] - The rental yield in major Chinese cities is approximately 1.8%, which is significantly lower than historical levels in the U.S. and Japan during their respective crises [14][15] - A new pricing anchor based on rental yield rather than price-to-income ratios is suggested to better reflect asset value [12][13] Future Price Evolution - A sensitivity analysis indicates that a 0.5% reduction in expected price growth could lead to a 22% decline in property prices, while a 1% reduction could result in a 36% decline [16] - The need for a balanced market is emphasized, requiring measures to lower interest rates, reduce risks, and enhance rental yields [16] Commercial Real Estate Market Dynamics - There is a significant gap between primary and secondary market valuations in China's commercial real estate, indicating a disconnect in asset pricing [17] - Historical examples from the U.S. suggest that innovative risk-sharing mechanisms can help restore market confidence during downturns [17] Asset Price Cycle Reconstruction - The restructuring of the real estate cycle necessitates a shift from traditional developer-led models to a new financial ecosystem involving specialized asset management institutions [18][19] - The creation of a new type of real estate asset management institution is essential for developing a complete ecosystem that includes private equity funds, REITs, and effective exit strategies [19] Policy Recommendations - The core objective should be to convert excess inventory into new demand through market mechanisms, addressing the mismatch between supply structure and diverse demand [20] - A market-oriented approach to asset acquisition and transformation is recommended, leveraging professional asset management institutions to mitigate risks [20][21] - Financial innovations and exit mechanisms must be synchronized to ensure sustainable participation from market entities [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "infinite cash flow" and how to achieve it through accumulating cash-generating assets, particularly in the context of real estate and financial assets in China [3][4][7]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Analysis - The real estate market experiences cycles of bull and bear markets, with a typical cycle lasting about 15-20 years, compared to 7-10 years for stocks and 3-5 years for bonds [13][14]. - The last bull market in real estate began after the 2009 stimulus plan and lasted until around 2018, followed by a bear market that has persisted for six to seven years [16][20]. - Future appreciation in real estate is expected, but it will vary by city, with some areas experiencing significant declines and others likely to recover based on population inflow and income growth [22][23]. Group 2: Real Estate Valuation Metrics - Key valuation indicators include the proportion of real estate value in total wealth, which peaked at over 70% in households during the market's height, compared to 20-30% in developed countries [27][31]. - The rental yield is another important metric, with a healthy rental yield expected to exceed the yield of long-term government bonds, which was around 2-3% in previous years [34][38]. - Current rental yields in many cities are between 1-3%, while some financial assets offer higher cash flow yields [52]. Group 3: Financial Strategy for Cash Flow - Households are encouraged to rent out excess properties to generate stable rental income, which can then be reinvested into cash-generating financial assets [54][56]. - The strategy involves diversifying cash flow sources to include both rental income and returns from financial investments, ultimately aiming for a more stable "infinite cash flow" [60][61]. - The process is iterative, starting with rental income and gradually increasing the proportion of cash flow from financial assets until it surpasses rental income [58].

Core Viewpoint - In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, individuals and institutions with idle funds are increasingly seeking investment opportunities in the second-hand housing market, focusing on tenant stability, rental yield, and the surrounding living environment rather than just city or regional factors [2][5][9] Investment Trends - Investors like Li Kun are purchasing commercial properties, such as a ground-floor shop in Haidian District, Beijing, for 5 million yuan, with a unit price of approximately 70,000 yuan per square meter, while the residential average in the area is around 90,000 yuan per square meter [2][4] - The annual rental yield for Li Kun's property is estimated at around 4%, reflecting a stable demand for local services provided by such commercial properties [5][11] Market Dynamics - The competition among buyers is intense, leading to price fluctuations; for instance, a property in Zhongguancun was sold for 6.11 million yuan, a 110% premium over its assessed value [5][9] - In June, a commercial property in Shanghai sold for 25 million yuan, with a unit price below 10,000 yuan per square meter, indicating a strong potential for rental yield [7][9] Investment Opportunities - The current market presents unique investment opportunities characterized by a divergence in property prices and rental yields, with some properties showing significant rental yield increases as prices drop [9][11] - Investors are particularly interested in distressed assets, including properties from bankruptcy proceedings, which often see price reductions with each failed auction [10][11] Investment Criteria - Both individual and institutional investors are establishing systematic investment standards, focusing on core urban areas and evaluating the economic conditions of the surrounding regions [13][14] - The rental yield is a critical factor in investment decisions, with a focus on properties that can provide stable income despite market fluctuations [13][14]

Core Insights - The article discusses the trend of individual and institutional investors, like Li Kun, seeking investment opportunities in the second-hand real estate market, particularly in commercial properties, due to stable rental yields and low vacancy rates [1][2][4] Investment Trends - Investors are increasingly focusing on the stability of tenants, rental yields, and the surrounding living environment rather than just the city or region for investment decisions [1][2] - In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, some investors are engaging in competitive bidding for quality commercial properties, leading to significant price premiums [2][4] Market Dynamics - The article highlights a shift in investment logic due to real estate market adjustments, with many institutions selling quality assets at prices significantly lower than their purchase prices from 2019 [4][5] - The current market is characterized as a buyer's market overall, but high-quality projects remain competitive, creating a seller's market for those assets [5] Rental Yield Analysis - The rental yield for the commercial properties discussed ranges from approximately 2.5% to over 8%, depending on the specific property and market conditions [2][3][4] - Investors are particularly interested in properties with rental yields exceeding 3%, indicating potential bottom-fishing opportunities [5] Investment Criteria - Investors, both individuals and institutions, are establishing systematic investment standards, focusing on core urban areas and the economic conditions of those regions [6][7] - The article emphasizes the importance of assessing rental yields and potential appreciation when evaluating investment properties, with a noted preference for commercial over residential investments due to stability concerns [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is expected to reach a turning point in housing prices between 2026 and 2027, contrary to the prevailing pessimistic sentiment among the public [1][2]. Group 1: Market Recovery Phases - The recovery of the real estate market is anticipated to occur in three phases: 1. Transaction volume stabilization by 2025 due to continuous government support [3][4]. 2. Price stabilization in 2026 as supply and demand reach a balance [4]. 3. Investment recovery post-2026 with increased land purchases and new construction [4]. Group 2: City-Specific Turning Points - Different cities will experience varying timelines for market stabilization: - First-tier cities are expected to stabilize by the end of 2025 due to favorable policies and strong demand [5]. - Strong second-tier cities, such as Hangzhou and Chengdu, are projected to stabilize between 2026 and 2027 [5]. - Third and fourth-tier cities may not see stabilization until 2027 or later due to long inventory cycles and population outflows [6][7]. Group 3: Indicators for Price Trends - Traditional indicators like price-to-income ratios and rental yields are deemed ineffective for predicting turning points; instead, the focus should be on supply-demand dynamics and inventory de-stocking cycles [8][14]. - The current inventory de-stocking cycles in key cities indicate a potential for price stabilization, while cities with longer cycles may face continued pressure on prices [16]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The overall recovery of the Chinese real estate market is expected to be challenging, with only a few core cities likely to present structural opportunities [19]. - The market's sensitivity to policy changes has diminished, and the focus should shift to city-specific supply-demand relationships to gauge future price movements [16].