"沃什冲击"后，市场怎么看？20260202 摘要 美联储政策与市场影响：沃什的缩表计划可能导致长端利率上升和流动 性减少，对股票和商品市场构成压力，但实际执行存在不确定性，需关 注其与特朗普政府经济目标的潜在冲突。 黄金的长期投资价值：在全球地缘政治重构和经济低增长、高债务背景 下，黄金作为稳定器和对抗不确定性的工具，长期投资吸引力依然存在， 尤其是在美元霸权衰落和债务压力难以缓解的情况下。 股市牛市基础未变：尽管近期股市波动加剧，但美联储降息通道、美国 财政扩张、中国经济转型升级以及长线资金流入等因素，共同构成 2026 年牛市的基础，短期回调不改长期看好趋势。 有色金属市场展望：短期内有色金属市场可能波动，但工业金属和化工 方向在中后端行情中通常表现出色。市场企稳后，应关注产业趋势清晰 的方向，而非简单避险，并积极配置贵金属。 化工行业周期性机会：化工行业正经历新一轮紧密周期，受供需关系向 好、利率下行和流动性充裕等因素支持，估值有望上行。建议关注细分 龙头企业，如 PTA、涤纶长丝等，以获得更好的配置效果。 Q&A 沃什被提名为美联储主席后，市场对其政策主张的反应如何？ 特朗普提名凯文·沃什担任美联储 ...

Group 1 - Southbound funds increased their holdings in China State Construction International (03311.HK) by 570,000 shares on February 2 [1] - Over the past 5 trading days, there were 3 days of net reductions in southbound fund holdings, totaling a net decrease of 2.836 million shares [1] - In the last 20 trading days, there were 10 days of net reductions, with a cumulative net decrease of 4.6985 million shares [1] Group 2 - As of now, southbound funds hold 510 million shares of China State Construction International, accounting for 9.65% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] - China State Construction International Group Limited primarily engages in construction business, infrastructure project investment, toll road operations, project supervision services, and exterior wall engineering [1] - The company also involves in the renovation of industrial plants, provides project supervision services, sells construction materials, and leases machinery and investment properties [1]

往年，他的春运记忆总与沉重的行李捆绑在一起。上海特产、给家里小辈的玩具、换洗衣物……一手拖箱，一手拎袋，在人群与楼梯间穿 梭，登上列车时已满头大汗。 今年春运前，程燚在铁路12306App上看到了"轻装行"服务的推送，"上门取件、高铁同步送达"的模式瞬间吸引了他。预约后，工作人员 准时上门，当面核对、规范封装、贴上专属标签，"整个过程很专业，让人安心。" "再也不用拖着大箱子，在车站里赶路了。" 老家在湖北武汉的程燚，2023年来到上海工作，目前是中建五局安装公司的一名后勤管理人员。今年春运，他第一次尝试铁路"轻装行"服 务，体验了一把"拎包返乡"。 2月2日，程燚（前右）在上海南站检票上车。 2月2日，程燚在上海的家中将行李递给快递员。 2月2日，在上海，快递员取走程燚的行李，准备送至上海南站。 2月2日，程燚背着书包前往上海南站。 2月2日，程燚准备骑车前往上海地铁1号线汶水路站，然后乘坐地铁前往上海南站。 2月2日，程燚抵达上海地铁1号线汶水路站，准备乘坐地铁前往上海南站。 2月2日，在上海南站候车大厅，程燚接听铁路"轻装行"工作人员的电话。 2月2日，程燚在核对此次铁路"轻装行"的具体信息。 2月2日 ...

民政部表示，广大社会组织已经成为加强和完善社会治理的重要载体、推动经济社会高质量发展的重要 支撑、全面建设社会主义现代化国家的重要力量。未来全国各级各类社会组织要进一步强化自身建设、 提升专业能力、履行社会责任。 北京商报讯(记者翟枫瑞)2月2日，民政部发布关于表彰全国先进社会组织的决定称，根据《民政部关于 开展第五次"全国先进社会组织"评比表彰活动的通知》，经推荐申报、资格审查、专家评审、征求意 见、社会公示等程序，现决定，授予中华全国律师协会等286个社会团体、社会服务机构和基金会"全国 先进社会组织"称号。 北京商报记者通过《全国先进社会组织名单》了解到，中国建筑材料流通协会、中国建筑业协会、中国 建筑防水协会、中国建筑材料联合会等多个建筑行业协会上榜。 ...

Market Overview - The housing construction sector experienced a decline of 2.27% on February 2, with Shanghai Construction leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Stock Performance - Notable declines in individual stocks include: - Shanghai Construction: down 5.03% to 2.83 [1] - Zhejiang Construction Investment: down 3.13% to 8.36 [1] - China State Construction: down 1.98% to 4.94 [1] - The trading volume and turnover for Shanghai Construction reached 421.40 million shares and 12.21 billion yuan, respectively [1] Capital Flow - The housing construction sector saw a net outflow of 474 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 227 million yuan [1] - Specific stock capital flows indicate: - Longyuan Construction: net inflow of 12.39 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - Shanghai Construction: significant net outflow of 1.68 billion yuan from institutional investors [2] - China State Construction: net outflow of 2.97 billion yuan from institutional investors [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The cleanroom market is expanding due to increased investment in high-tech industries, benefiting companies like Yaxiang Integration, with related companies including Shenghui Integration and Bocheng Co., Ltd. [3][4] - The real estate market is showing signs of marginal improvement, with significant potential for transformation and development [5] Summary by Sections Cleanroom Industry - The growth in high-tech industry investments is driving the expansion of the cleanroom market, with Micron Technology planning to invest $24 billion in a NAND factory in Singapore over the next decade, which will include 700,000 square feet of cleanroom space [4] - The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) predicts a 26.3% increase in the global semiconductor market by 2026, reaching $975 billion, further supporting the cleanroom industry's growth [4] - Yaxiang Integration's parent company reported a consolidated revenue of NT$9.5 billion (approximately RMB 2.1 billion) in December, a year-on-year increase of 165.2% [4] Real Estate Market - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 emphasized stabilizing the real estate market through targeted policies, including controlling inventory and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [5] - An article published on January 2, 2026, highlighted the importance of managing expectations in the real estate market, which has significant financial asset attributes and broad social implications [5] Recommended Companies - The report recommends Yaxiang Integration for the cleanroom sector, with related companies including Bocheng Co., Ltd. and Shenghui Integration [7] - Other sectors recommended include commercial aerospace, controllable nuclear fusion, and renewable energy, with specific companies highlighted for each sector [7]

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2026 02 02 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 美联储迎来沃什，4 大关键点 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】美联储迎来沃什，4 大关键点——20260201 【宏观】物价回升如何影响税收收入？—2025 年财政回顾与 2026 年展 望——20260131 【宏观】1 月 PMI 超季节性回落的背后——20260131 【策略】月度高胜率窗口的经验与应对——20260201 【海外】优选地产、大宗和科技——2026 年 2 月海外金股推荐—— 20260131 【金融工程】短期调整不足为惧——20260201 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周拥挤度指标明显弱化——20260131 【固定收益】联储换帅、市场波动与债市逻辑——20260201 【固定收益】赎纯债、降久期、增信用——债基 2025Q4 季报分析—— 20260201 【固定收益】资金平稳跨月，存单偿还地方债放量——流动性和机构行 为跟踪——20260131 【固定收益】固收+继续扩张，增配科技化工——25Q4 基金转债持仓分 析——20260131 【电新】低轨星座竞赛与太空算力革命，引爆太空光 ...

（来源：天津日报） 转自：天津日报 近日，市总工会联合市建筑业协会等单位来到中建五局天保19号地项目开展慰问活动。工作人员将棉 服、保暖手套等防寒物资送到一线施工人员手中，让他们感受到"娘家人"的温暖。 记者 张磊 摄 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the construction central enterprises sector, including China Railway, China Chemical, China Construction, and China Metallurgical [12][13][32]. Core Insights - The construction central enterprises are expected to see improved profitability driven by policy goals aimed at stabilizing investment. Order data shows a recovery in order growth starting from Q2 2025, with an anticipated narrowing of performance declines by Q4 2025 [1][16]. - The overall valuation of the nine major construction central enterprises is at historical lows, with a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 0.45 and a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 6.66, indicating strong safety margins [2][19]. - Institutional holdings in the construction sector are at low levels, suggesting a healthy chip structure and potential for recovery in key stocks [3][22]. Summary by Sections Order Growth and Performance - Cumulative order growth rates for construction central enterprises from Q1 to Q4 2025 are -2.0%, +0.2%, +1.3%, and +1.0%, respectively, indicating a recovery trend [1][16]. - The report anticipates that the performance decline of construction central enterprises will narrow in Q4 2025 due to improved order growth [1][16]. Valuation Metrics - As of January 30, 2026, the overall PB for the nine major construction central enterprises is 0.45, slightly above the historical low of 0.42, while the overall PE is 6.66, still below the historical median of 7.66 [2][19]. Institutional Holdings - As of Q4 2025, active funds hold 0.40% of the construction sector, while index funds hold 0.16%, leading to a combined holding of 0.28%, significantly lower than the 0.7%-1% range seen in 2021-2022 [3][22]. Catalysts for Growth - Several potential catalysts for the construction central enterprises include resource business revaluation for China Railway, chemical price rebounds for China Chemical, and increased investment in the power grid for China Electric Power and China Energy Construction [4][26]. - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to bring about fiscal policies that could further stimulate the sector [4][26]. Recommended Stocks - Key recommendations include: - China Railway (A/H): Benefiting from resource revaluation, with a combined value of 1,894 billion CNY for its resource and engineering segments, indicating a potential upside of 35% [5][27]. - China Chemical: Positioned to benefit from chemical price rebounds, with a current PB of 0.84, indicating a strong safety margin [9][28]. - China Construction: Expected to benefit from stabilizing real estate expectations, with a projected dividend yield of 5.5% [10][30]. - China Metallurgical: Anticipated to improve significantly post divestment of its loss-making real estate business, with a combined valuation potential of 794 billion CNY [11][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the construction central enterprises sector, including China Railway, China Chemical, China Construction, and China Metallurgical [12][13][32]. Core Insights - The construction central enterprises are expected to see improved profitability driven by policy goals aimed at stabilizing investment and increasing central budget investment in 2026. Order growth has shown signs of recovery, with cumulative order growth rates for 2025 Q1-Q4 at -2.0%, +0.2%, +1.3%, and +1.0% respectively, indicating resilience among leading firms [1][16]. - The overall valuation of the nine major construction central enterprises is at historical lows, with a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 0.45 and a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 6.66, suggesting a strong margin of safety for investors [2][19]. - Institutional holdings in the construction sector are at low levels, with active funds holding only 0.40% of the sector, indicating significant underweighting compared to historical averages [3][22]. Summary by Sections Order Growth and Market Conditions - The report highlights a recovery in order growth for construction central enterprises, with expectations for performance improvement in Q4 2025 as orders stabilize and infrastructure investment accelerates in 2026 [1][16]. - The central government's focus on stabilizing investment and increasing budget allocations is expected to support revenue and profit growth for these enterprises [1][16]. Valuation Metrics - As of January 30, 2026, the construction central enterprises exhibit a PB of 0.45, slightly above the historical low of 0.42, and a PE of 6.66, which is still below the historical median of 7.66, indicating a favorable entry point for investors [2][19]. Institutional Holdings - As of Q4 2025, the construction sector's market capitalization represents only 1.6% of the total A-share market, with a significant reduction in institutional holdings compared to previous years, suggesting potential for recovery in stock prices as institutional interest returns [3][22]. Catalysts for Growth - Several catalysts are identified for the construction central enterprises, including resource revaluation for China Railway, chemical price rebounds for China Chemical, and increased investment in power grid infrastructure benefiting China Electric Power and China Energy Construction [4][26]. - The upcoming Two Sessions and the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026 are expected to bring additional fiscal policies that could further stimulate the sector [4][26]. Recommended Stocks - Key recommendations include: - **China Railway (A/H)**: Strong resource base with significant revaluation potential, estimated combined value of 1,894 billion CNY for A shares and 1,535 billion CNY for H shares, indicating a 35% and 54% upside respectively [5][27]. - **China Chemical**: Positioned to benefit from chemical price rebounds, with a current PB of 0.84, indicating a solid margin of safety [9][28]. - **China Construction**: Expected to benefit from stabilizing real estate expectations, with a projected dividend yield of 5.5% [10][30]. - **China Metallurgical**: Anticipated to improve significantly post divestment of loss-making real estate operations, with a potential valuation increase of 22% to 74% [11][31].