证券研究报告 | 2026年02月25日 基金投资价值分析 一键布局有色全赛道——南方中证申万有色金属 ETF 投资价 值分析 一键布局有色全赛道 近期有色板块调整并非趋势终结：有色金属板块近期出现短期波动，但市场 基本已消化了特朗普提名沃什为下一任美联储主席的冲击，降息仍是大方 向，贵金属根本逻辑并未改变，各金属品种的定价有望回归基本面。 宏观、供需、资金维度均支撑贵金属定价：宏观层面，美联储开启降息周期， 全球流动性转向宽松，直接利好有色金属价格；从供需来看，历史上央行购 金与黄金价格存在较强相关性，近年来央行购金快速提升，支撑金价表现； 此外，黄金投资价值的提升吸引了大量投资者涌入以 ETF 计价的黄金市场。 新兴产业的发展为工业金属提供大量新增需求：在产业层面，人工智能、新 能源这些新兴产业的发展远远超出市场预期，新兴领域的发展成为需求增长 的新引擎，比如 AI 数据中心建设、电网升级、新能源转型等，这为铜、铝 等金属带来了需求弹性、打开长期需求增长空间。 中证申万有色金属指数投资价值分析 中证申万有色金属指数（000819.SH）发布于 2012 年 5 月 9 日，指数从沪 深市场申万有色金属及非 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月25日 基金投资价值分析 一键布局有色全赛道——南方中证申万有色金属 ETF 投资价 值分析 一键布局有色全赛道 近期有色板块调整并非趋势终结：有色金属板块近期出现短期波动，但市场 基本已消化了特朗普提名沃什为下一任美联储主席的冲击，降息仍是大方 向，贵金属根本逻辑并未改变，各金属品种的定价有望回归基本面。 宏观、供需、资金维度均支撑贵金属定价：宏观层面，美联储开启降息周期， 全球流动性转向宽松，直接利好有色金属价格；从供需来看，历史上央行购 金与黄金价格存在较强相关性，近年来央行购金快速提升，支撑金价表现； 此外，黄金投资价值的提升吸引了大量投资者涌入以 ETF 计价的黄金市场。 新兴产业的发展为工业金属提供大量新增需求：在产业层面，人工智能、新 能源这些新兴产业的发展远远超出市场预期，新兴领域的发展成为需求增长 的新引擎，比如 AI 数据中心建设、电网升级、新能源转型等，这为铜、铝 等金属带来了需求弹性、打开长期需求增长空间。 中证申万有色金属指数投资价值分析 证券分析师：张欣慰 证券分析师：杨昕宇 截至 2026 年 2 月 11 日，中证申万有色金属指数的市盈率为 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. is experiencing a positive market response, with a stock price increase of 2.58% and a total market capitalization of 501.70 billion yuan, ranking 14th in popularity on Sina Finance [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum is primarily engaged in the mining and processing of non-ferrous metals, including molybdenum, tungsten, cobalt, and copper, and is recognized as one of the top five molybdenum producers globally [2][7]. - The company has a comprehensive integrated industrial chain and is the largest tungsten producer, the second-largest cobalt and niobium producer, and a leading copper producer [2][7]. - The company has significant operations in Brazil, being the second-largest producer of phosphate fertilizer in the country, with a phosphate-related revenue of 2.83 billion yuan in 2017 [3]. Group 2: Production and Financial Performance - In 2022, the company's gold production from its NPM copper-gold mine in Australia was 16,000 ounces, with a production guidance of 25,000 to 27,000 ounces for 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 56% to 69% [2]. - For the first nine months of 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum reported a revenue of 145.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.99% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.61% to 14.28 billion yuan [8]. - The company has been increasing its focus on precious metals, with the revenue and profit contribution from gold and silver products rising annually [2]. Group 3: Shareholder and Market Activity - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 304,200, reflecting a growth of 28.08% [8]. - The main shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 695 million shares, and various ETFs, indicating a diverse institutional ownership [8]. - The stock has seen a net inflow of 700.77 million yuan from major investors, with a slight increase in market control by these investors [4][5]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The average trading cost of the stock is 19.04 yuan, with the current price fluctuating between resistance at 25.09 yuan and support at 22.70 yuan, suggesting potential for range trading [6].

铝：基本面表现一般，近期宏观情绪对铝价影响较大，关注节后实际需求恢复 情况和宏观消息影响。 黄金：考虑到近期地缘政治风险不确定性上升，金价或得到支撑。 锂：市场对 3 月下游排产预期乐观，需关注节后下游需求恢复情况，若实际 需求表现较好，锂价或得到支撑。 稀土：考虑到目前氧化镨钕供应依然紧缺，短期氧化镨钕价格有望维持高位。 行 行业周报 静待国内需求复苏，关注宏观情绪影响 ——金属行业周报 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2026 年 2 月 25 日 钢铁 有色金属 证券分析师 张珂 022-23839062 zhangke@bhzq.com 研究助理 投资要点： 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 钢铁：节后下游市场将缓慢复苏，关注实际需求复苏进度、原料价格走势和宏 观消息对钢价影响。 铜：节后需求复苏仍需时间，铜精矿加工费低位下跌，叠加新能源、AI 等需 求预期依旧强劲，预计节后铜价维持高位震荡。 本周策略 （1）钢铁：随着钢铁行业稳增长政策逐步实施，行业竞争格局改善预期下后 续行业盈利水平或得到提升，未来船舶用钢等领域需求有望得到提振。建议 关注工厂设备先进、在船舶钢等高附加值领 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in the rare metals sector, particularly in the context of the rare metals ETF, which saw a strong rise of 6.36% as of February 25, 2026, with lithium and rare earths accounting for over 58% of the ETF's weight [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index as of January 30, 2026, include major companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and Ganfeng Lithium, collectively accounting for 59.71% of the index [1] - Concerns regarding the export disruptions of lithium from Zimbabwe have emerged, alongside positive expectations for production in March, leading to a forecast of a volatile increase in lithium prices throughout 2026 [1] - The domestic sales of AI glasses surged by 70%-80% during the Spring Festival, and AI toy transactions skyrocketed by 500 times year-on-year, indicating a strong demand for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnet materials, which will drive upstream rare earth material demand [1] Group 2 - The rare metals ETF (561800) serves as an excellent investment tool for investors looking to gain exposure to the rare metals industry [2]

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 2月25日，有色ETF银华（159871）开盘涨0.35%，报1.145元。有色ETF银华（159871）重仓股方面，紫 金矿业开盘涨0.20%，洛阳钼业涨0.61%，北方稀土涨0.36%，华友钴业涨1.06%，中国铝业涨0.85%，赣 锋锂业涨1.43%，山东黄金跌0.30%，云铝股份涨0.72%，中金黄金跌0.32%，中矿资源涨0.75%。 有色ETF银华（159871）业绩比较基准为中证有色金属指数收益率，管理人为银华基金管理股份有限公 司，基金经理为谭跃峰，成立（2021-03-10）以来回报为127.80%，近一个月回报为-1.72%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration plans to use an AI model developed by the U.S. Department of Defense to establish reference prices for global critical mineral trade, starting with germanium, gallium, antimony, and tungsten [1] - The reference prices are expected to have a limited impact on tungsten, which is already profitable for all, but may boost the prices of germanium, gallium, and antimony, which are currently undervalued [1] - The policy is anticipated to lead to an expansion in equity market value, with improvements in earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios due to higher expected prices and increased survival rates of companies [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has a strong performance, with a 4.15% increase, and notable gains in component stocks such as Chihong Zn & Ge and Huaxi Nonferrous, both up by 10.01% [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the nonferrous metals sector, comprising 50 securities with significant scale and liquidity, and the top ten weighted stocks account for 49.87% of the index [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Invesco ETF (560290) in the non-ferrous metal sector, which opened down by 0.20% at 0.977 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 0.20%, and other companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum, showing varied performance with some stocks like Ganfeng Lithium and Xinyi Silver rising by 1.43% and 1.49% respectively [1] - The performance benchmark for the Invesco ETF is the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, with a return of -2.34% since its establishment on January 26, 2026 [1]

业内分析指出，锌铟等小金属价格上行、镍矿等品种海外供给收缩为有色金属行业提供直接支撑，全球 铝产业合作项目落地与美欧钢铝贸易关系缓和的预期，进一步利好工业金属领域的需求释放，叠加国内 有色金属产量稳步增长夯实行业发展根基，行业整体供需格局持续优化，各细分品种迎来轮动向好的发 展态势。 有色ETF银华（159871）紧密跟踪中证有色金属指数。该指数选取涉及有色金属采选、有色金属冶炼与 加工业务的上市公司，反映有色金属类相关上市公司的整体表现，前十大重仓股包含紫金矿业、洛阳钼 业、北方稀土等龙头企业，权重合计46.48%。 消息面上，2月25日，国内锌铟板块行情走高，24日上海钢联数据显示，国内粗铟中间价报4600元/公 斤、精铟中间价报4700元/公斤，均较节前上涨300元/公斤；印尼莫罗瓦利镍矿中心发生山体滑坡影响 当地镍矿产出，且该国2026年镍矿配额预计2.5-2.6亿吨，较2025年的3.79亿吨降幅超34%，全球镍供给 端收缩态势凸显。2月24日，阿联酋环球铝业与美国铝业、世纪铝业达成合作协议，推进俄克拉荷马州 铝中心建设，当地原铝项目预计于今年年底启动；欧盟官员预计美国将在未来几周降低对含钢铝加工产 ...

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - **Steel Industry**: The outlook for the steel industry has shifted from cautious to bullish, primarily driven by supply-side expectations. The current profitability of the industry is low, which is seen as a potential opportunity for investment. The focus is on the supply-side policies that are influenced by the industry's profitability levels. The investment opportunities are concentrated during periods of poor profitability or strong expectations for recovery [1][2]. - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: The overall sentiment towards non-ferrous metals is positive, with a particular emphasis on the strategic importance of reserves. The current market conditions are compared to the 1970s, indicating that traditional supply-demand dynamics may not fully capture the market's behavior. Central bank gold purchases are highlighted as a significant factor influencing prices [3][4]. Key Insights - **Steel Sector Performance**: The steel sector is expected to face challenges in 2024, with a significant downturn anticipated in Q3 and Q4. However, there is a belief that supply-side expectations will strengthen in 2025, particularly in early 2025, before tapering off as profitability improves later in the year. Recommended stocks include Hualing Steel and Baosteel [2]. - **Gold and Silver Market**: The gold and silver markets are expected to maintain their upward trajectory due to concerns over U.S. dollar credit and geopolitical tensions. The current environment is seen as favorable for gold prices, with expectations of continued strength in the short term. Silver is noted for its higher price elasticity compared to gold, with potential for strong performance in March due to seasonal demand [5][6][7]. - **Copper Market Dynamics**: The copper market is currently in a seasonal accumulation phase, with domestic inventories exceeding 500,000 tons. The price of copper has stabilized around 100,000 yuan per ton, with expectations for a gradual recovery as demand from downstream industries increases. The long-term outlook remains optimistic due to ongoing demand from AI and electric grid applications [8][9][10][11]. - **Cobalt and Nickel**: The cobalt and nickel markets are expected to experience upward price movements, driven by supply constraints and strategic demand. Recommended stocks include Huayou Cobalt and Li Hang Resources, which are seen as having strong price elasticity [12]. - **Tin Market Outlook**: The tin market is projected to see price increases due to limited supply growth and strong demand from the semiconductor industry. The recommendation is to focus on companies like Xinyi Silver Tin, which are expanding production capacity significantly [13][14][15]. - **Tungsten Market Trends**: The tungsten market is experiencing a price increase, with strong demand from various sectors. Companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhongtian High-tech are expanding their production capabilities, indicating confidence in the market's future [16][17][18][19][20]. - **Rare Earth Elements**: The rare earth market is expected to remain tight, with supply constraints and increasing demand from new energy applications. Companies like Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth are recommended for investment due to their strategic importance and growth potential [21][22][23][24]. Additional Considerations - The overall sentiment across various metal markets indicates a cautious optimism, with strategic reserves and geopolitical factors playing a significant role in price movements. The focus on supply-side dynamics and the potential for recovery in profitability are critical themes for investors to consider moving forward [25].