2026 年 2 月 25 日 生猪：现货不及预期，淡季去库难度大 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11080 | | -1300 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11300 | | 450 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 11660 | | 0 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 10740 | | -155 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11500 | | -40 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | 12220 | | -10 | | | | | 单 位 | ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a continued oscillating market pattern, suggesting that the index's upward movement driven by position recovery does not alter the overall oscillating trend [2] - It advocates for a strategic focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks, particularly in the agricultural and chemical sectors, as they are expected to perform well in the current market environment [2][3] Market Strategy - The report notes that the index is currently at a midpoint of its oscillation range, recommending an active adjustment of portfolio structures to include mid-cap blue-chip stocks [2] - It highlights that the recovery of market positions post-holiday indicates a clear shift in fund allocation towards mid-cap blue-chip stocks, with cyclical manufacturing sectors showing stronger performance compared to technology growth sectors [2] Industry Strategy - In the agricultural sector, the report suggests that domestic companies must expand into international markets to overcome growth limitations, emphasizing the importance of product and technology exports, asset investments, and mergers/joint ventures [3] - Successful companies in this sector are characterized by strong core product advantages, comprehensive industry chain layouts, and effective local market integration [3] Thematic Strategy - The rare earth sector is projected to experience a dual boost in profitability and valuation, with expectations of rising rare earth prices due to sustained demand and supply-side improvements [4] - The report underscores the strategic value of rare earths in the context of increasing geopolitical uncertainties, suggesting that domestic rare earth companies may benefit from accelerated asset consolidation [4]

生猪专家 2026 年行情展望电话会 20260223 摘要 2023 年猪价微亏，2024 年和 2025 年盈利较好，但 2026 年预计全年 均价在 12.3-12.45 元/公斤，自繁自养基本保本，外购仔猪育肥可能微 亏，整体盈利空间有限。 受前期利润影响，母猪去产能动力不足，虽政策要求调减，但企业减产 不积极。预计 2026 年或减产，但幅度不大，速度较慢，规模化企业抗 风险能力强。 短期内猪价仍有下行空间，受春节后季节性下跌和前期体重偏重影响， 上半年或跌破 11 元/公斤。二次育肥和冻品入库支撑力度不足。 仔猪市场总体盈利，采购需求较高，商品猪亏损未必立即导致补栏减少。 若仔猪价格上涨至 456 元左右，将支撑母猪存栏，不利于快速去产能。 2026 年生猪养殖行业或将僵持，政策要求减产，但仔猪利润支撑减产 动力不足。母猪减产趋势缓慢，自繁自养成本在 11.23-12 元/公斤，外 购仔猪育肥成本在 12-13 元/公斤。 2026 年商品猪出栏量同比增加约 4.8%，供应仍处高位，预计全年均价 低于 2025 年。冬季疫情影响有限，但 2026 年五六月份商品猪出栏量 或环比下滑。 二次育肥主要 ...

行 华福证券 农林牧渔 2026 年 02 月 24 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 节后淡季来临，猪价或延续跌势 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：节后淡季来临，猪价或延续跌势。（1）节后猪价下探。春 节多数屠企停工放假，生猪购销基本停滞，随假期步入尾声，养殖企业陆 续恢复出栏，市场购销恢复，猪价开启回落，2 月 23 日猪价回落至 11.26 元/公斤，较 2 月 13 日-0.4 元/公斤。（2）消费淡季来临，节后宰量处于低 位水平。随假期步入尾声，多数屠企已陆续开工，当前宰量处于低位水平， 收购顺畅度高，采购难度不大。2 月 23 日样本企业日屠宰量 9.20 万头，较 节前 2 月 13 日下降 64%。冻品方面，春节前屠企加快消化冻品库存。截至 2 月 12 日当周，行业冻品库存率 17.18%，周环比-4.08pct。（3）生猪均重 季节性下降。节前规模场增量降重，散户与二次育肥出栏积极，集中出栏 带动生猪出栏均重下降。2 月 12 日当周，行业生猪出栏均重 126.05 公斤（周 环比-1.35 公斤），其中集团场均重 122.62 公斤（周环比-0.72 公斤）、散 户均重 139.6 ...

证券日报网讯2月24日，牧原股份（002714）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司会聚焦主业，持 续做好经营管理，提升生产效率与盈利能力，保证公司高质量稳定发展，更好地为股东创造回报。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][5][7] Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, with specific commodities showing signs of price stabilization and potential upward trends [1][3][4] - The USDA's February supply and demand report indicates adjustments in global inventory levels for various crops, impacting market dynamics [1][2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - Global corn production is forecasted to decrease by 1 million tons to 1.296 billion tons, with a reduction in ending stocks ratio by 0.17 percentage points to 22.21% [14][15] - Domestic corn prices are at historical lows, with a current price of 2318 CNY/ton, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.56% and a year-on-year increase of 7.12% [17] Soybeans - The USDA report predicts a 2.5 million ton increase in global soybean production, with ending stocks rising by 1.1 million tons to 126 million tons, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 29.55% [33][34] - Domestic soybean meal prices are showing strong support, with expectations for Brazilian soybean supply to increase post-March 2026 [35] Wheat - Global wheat production is expected to decrease by 370,000 tons, with ending stocks ratio down by 0.10 percentage points to 33.68% [47][48] - Domestic wheat prices are currently at 2531 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.78% [50] Sugar - The market anticipates a stable supply of sugar due to favorable weather conditions, with prices expected to remain weak [2][4] Cotton - Global cotton production is projected to decline, while demand is expected to rise, maintaining a loose supply-demand balance [2][4] Beef - The report forecasts a stable upward trend in U.S. beef prices, with a projected decrease in production for 2026 [3][4] - Domestic beef prices are expected to stabilize due to reduced supply and increased demand [3] Dairy - U.S. milk ending stocks are slightly adjusted upwards, with expectations for domestic milk prices to rise due to supply constraints [3][4] Pork - U.S. pork production is expected to increase slightly, with prices anticipated to remain high [4][6] Poultry - The U.S. chicken market is expected to recover, with domestic demand supporting price stabilization [6][4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include leading companies in livestock, pork, poultry, and feed sectors, such as YouRan Agriculture and MuYuan [5][7]

Dear Non-registered Shareholder, February 24, 2026 Arrangement of Electronic Dissemination of Corporate Communications Pursuant to the amended Rules Governing The Listing of Securities on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (the "Listing Rules") effective from December 31, 2023, Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. (the "Company") has adopted new arrangement to disseminate corporate communications ("Corporate Communications") electronically. Please note that all future Corporate Communications will be available elect ...

登記股東之名稱及地址 Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. 牧原食品股份有限公司 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） (Stock code: 2714) 2026 年 2 月 24 日 2. 公司通訊 尊敬的股東 發佈公司通訊之新安排 簡介 根據香港聯合交易所有限公司（「聯交所」）證券上市規則（「上市規則」）新規則第 2.07A 條 1 以及牧原食品 股份有限公司（「本公司」）的公司章程細則，本公司將以電子通訊方式向其股東 3 發佈本公司日後的公司通訊 （「公司通訊 2」），並僅應股東要求向其寄發印刷本形式的公司通訊。 就此而言，以下安排將於 2026 年 2 月 24 日生效。 安排 1. 可供採取行動的公司通訊 4 本公司將以電子通訊方式（通過電子郵件）向股東個別地發送可供採取行動的公司通訊。如果本公司沒有獲 取股東的電子郵箱地址或其提供的電子郵箱地址無效 5，本公司將以印刷本形式向其發送可供採取行動的公 司通訊，連同一份索取股東有效電子郵箱地址的表格，以便將來以電子通訊方式發送可供採取行動的公司通 訊。 - 1 - 本公司將在本公司網站（www.muyuanfoods.com）及聯交所 ...

登記股東之名稱及地址 Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. 牧原食品股份有限公司 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） (Stock code: 2714) 2026 年 2 月 24 日 尊敬的股東 - 1 - 2. 公司通訊 本公司將在本公司網站（www.muyuanfoods.com）及聯交所網站（www.hkexnews.hk）上發佈公司通訊。 本公司不會向股東發出公司通訊網站版本 6的登載通知。 本公司鼓勵股東主動留意網站上所有日後的公司通 訊的登載情況，並自行瀏覽公司通訊的網站版本。 發佈公司通訊之新安排 簡介 根據香港聯合交易所有限公司（「聯交所」）證券上市規則（「上市規則」）新規則第 2.07A 條 1 以及牧原食品 股份有限公司（「本公司」）的公司章程細則，本公司將以電子通訊方式向其股東 3 發佈本公司日後的公司通訊 （「公司通訊 2」），並僅應股東要求向其寄發印刷本形式的公司通訊。 就此而言，以下安排將於 2026 年 2 月 24 日生效。 安排 1. 可供採取行動的公司通訊 4 本公司將以電子通訊方式（通過電子郵件）向股東個別地發送可供採取行動的公司通訊。如果本公司沒有獲 ...

February 24, 2026 Arrangement of Electronic Dissemination of Corporate Communications Pursuant to the amended Rules Governing The Listing of Securities on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (the "Listing Rules") effective from December 31, 2023, Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. (the "Company") has adopted new arrangement to disseminate corporate communications ("Corporate Communications") electronically. Please note that all future Corporate Communications will be available electronically on the website of the C ...